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November 2014

Rtd208

By Rtd208,
in New York City Metro

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
Posted

I would place 2002-03 above last winter. Last winter was good in regards to cold and snowpack retention but overall snowfall for the NW burbs it was no different than 09-10 or 04-05. As much as some of you do not include the NW areas part of the NYC area it very much is. Just like areas of Suffolk cty & Central NJ are included..

 

IMBY 2004-05 : 74"

          2009-10 : 76"

          2013-14 : 75"

 

         2002-03 : 93"

You have to remember that the strip that runs from Philly through central NJ and then into Long Island has been the sweet spot the last several years. We (NW folks) typically have our best seasons when the coast taints a lot.

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
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There's a difference between tracking a storm in the the day 8-10 range when a pattern doesn't support it compared to when it does. I'm not saying today's EURO fantasy storm is going to happen, but the GFS/EURO have been showing a split flow developing for this time frame. With that we could also have a potential 50/50 in place, so a long ways to go, but the pattern would be better for this time frame IMO. 

The Euro ensemble mean is a bit delayed, more like around 288 hours.

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ag3

ag3

Posted
Posted

Last Winter lacked a high end KU event that would have put the cherry on top. Want to call me greedy? So be it. It was a great Winter for the coast so given your location I'm not at all surprised. I can't help but wonder if you would have the same feelings if the axis was shifted 75 miles NW.

 

Some people would rather get 10 5" events and others would rather have 2 25" events. Same result, just different preferences.

 

Without digging that much, it would appear that last year was much closer to average the further away from the coast that you got.

 

snowclimo_s.PNG

 

What is this map?

It's definitely not last winter's snowfall map. It off by more then double.

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ag3

ag3

Posted
Posted

I would place 2002-03 above last winter. Last winter was great in regards to cold and snowpack retention but overall snowfall for the NW burbs it was no different than 09-10 or 04-05. As much as some of you do not include the NW areas part of the NYC area it very much is. Just like areas of Suffolk cty & Central NJ are included..

 

IMBY 2004-05 : 74"

         2009-10 : 76"

         2013-14 : 75"

 

         2002-03 : 93"

 

I should've said for NYC, Mid and Southern NJ, LI and SWCT.

My apologies.

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ag3

ag3

Posted
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You have to remember that the strip that runs from Philly through central NJ and then into Long Island has been the sweet spot the last several

 

Ramsey, NJ is not what's considered NW of the cities.

These aren't the early 1990s.

NW of the cities has died a long time ago.

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snywx

snywx

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You have to remember that the strip that runs from Philly through central NJ and then into Long Island has been the sweet spot the last several years. We (NW folks) typically have our best seasons when the coast taints a lot.

 

Oh I know they have cashed in many times the last 5 yrs. From PHL to NYC & into LI the snowfall average really doesn't increase much. Maybe 5-10" tops in a 100-125 mile span but from NYC to lets say MSV ( Monticello) which is only 73 miles NW of the city the snowfall average triples. Thats where the disconnect comes in.

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
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Ramsey, NJ is not what's considered NW of the cities.

These aren't the early 1990s.

NW of the cities has died a long time ago.

Excuse me? Where was Ramsey, NJ mentioned?

 

Last year Central Park officially recorded 57.3". That is ~ 265% of normal. If someone could find the season totals at KSWF I gurantee you the numbers would be much closer to normal.

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
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Oh I know they have cashed in many times the last 5 yrs. From PHL to NYC & into LI the snowfall average really doesn't increase much. Maybe 5-10" tops in a 100-125 mile span but from NYC to lets say MSV ( Monticello) which is only 73 miles NW of the city the snowfall average triples. Thats where the disconnect comes in.

Some people in here refuse to acknowledge that areas where the Manhattan skyline isn't visible are still part of this area. Perhaps if we called it the Tri-State area instead of the NYC metro it would be more representative.

 

How about this beauty from January? Very representative of the general theme the past few seasons.

 

snow_20140121_20140122.png

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jm1220

jm1220

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Some people in here refuse to acknowledge that areas where the Manhattan skyline isn't visible are still part of this area. Perhaps if we called it the Tri-State area instead of the NYC metro it would be more representative.

How about this beauty from January? Very representative of the general theme the past few seasons.

snow_20140121_20140122.png

You had 20" of snow on Feb 13th this year while I mostly had rain. You've had your share of big snow events.
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snywx

snywx

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Excuse me? Where was Ramsey, NJ mentioned?

 

Last year Central Park officially recorded 57.3". That is ~ 265% of normal. If someone could find the season totals at KSWF I gurantee you the numbers would be much closer to normal.

 

That is the def of an awesome winter! lol.. If I had 265% of normal I would be in the 140" range..

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

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You had 20" of snow on Feb 13th this year while I mostly had rain. You've had your share of big snow events.

Are you referring to the two part storm from last year? I had 13" on the front end and nothing on the back end. Went more towards the LHV. Bad luck I guess.

 

And nobody is saying last year wasn't a great Winter. It just wasn't as good for the interior as it was for the coast.

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

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Its def higher than that lol... Closer to 26-28" range. I would think areas of the north BX avg close to 30" while areas on the south shore average closer to 22-25"

I would agree that the 21.5" seems low but it's not that far off when you consider the graphic on Uptons page. I was trying to find the offical average in numerical terms from NOAA but was unable to do so.

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snywx

snywx

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So my point is that last year was more than double average snowfall. You would have needed to be well over 100" to get that much above normal in places like KSWF.

 

SWF isn't a good measuring stick for many places in O.C since most of the county is elevated & >500'. I believe SWF & MGJ both average in the 45" range & both are low lying

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PB GFI

PB GFI

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So my point is that last year was more than double average snowfall. You would have needed to be well over 100" to get that much above normal in places like KSWF.

Yeh we had 200 plus % of normal in Colts Neck where 70 plus inches fell . Based on % of normal we had a Great winter .  

 

Back on Nov topic . Look at this day 15 Ensemble . That trough is going to get deeper as we get closer  so we probably rip right thru the rest of Nov well below normal .

post-7472-0-86247900-1415654400_thumb.pn

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

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I would say 150% of normal

Yeah probably saved by that one two part system that really ripped across the LHV.

 

Also had that one system where everyone was really worried about freezing rain. Was a solid front end dump before most flipped to sleet. LHV stayed mostly snow.

 

You really have four major zones for snowfall.

 

1) The strip that runs from LGA through the south shore of LI.

 

2) The strip that runs from Philly through CNJ, the city and the north shore of LI.

 

3) Areas just NW of the major cities that run to the foot of the mountains in NW NJ and up into the LHV

 

4) Areas west of KSWF including the Poconos and Sullivan County where the real elevation begins

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Eduardo

Eduardo

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There's a difference between tracking a storm in the the day 8-10 range when a pattern doesn't support it compared to when it does. I'm not saying today's EURO fantasy storm is going to happen, but the GFS/EURO have been showing a split flow developing for this time frame. With that we could also have a potential 50/50 in place, so a long ways to go, but the pattern would be better for this time frame IMO. 

 

This!  It's so crucially important to take a step back and examine the big picture, rather than focusing on the models' mercurial shifts in particulars in the long range.  To illustrate by way of dramatic example, there is quite a difference between the depictions of cold that never arrived in 2001-2002 and that which is forecasted to be upon us in the next few weeks.  That difference lies in the supportive nature of the upcoming overall pattern which, to say the least, looks mighty exciting for November!

 

I haven't ever felt so optimistic going into a winter as I have these past few weeks.  There are always flies circling the ointment this far out, but never in my (relatively short) lifetime have so many factors pointed so decidedly in the direction of seeing something special.

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