All Activity

I think it's really silly that global warming is moving index patterns. This isn't something that is "maybe" to me, or "wait until the next decade". We have been in a west-based La Nina global state (tropical forcing on the dateline), and it has flexed the SE ridge along with probably a +AMO. I'll give that Winters are probably +3-4F warmer, but then you can correlate everything to what's going on everywhere else almost 100%. The biggest anomalies were Dec 2022 and March 2023, something was happening that did not let -NAO/-EPO penetrate.. it's probably connected to a Strong El Nino the following year and record Atlantic SSTs for 2023 and 2024. Since then -NAO's have run cooler over the last 2 Winters. 83% of Winter months have been +NAO since Dec 11.. 14 years. Something like 70% of months have been -PNA. It's no mystery at all why we are in a snowfall drought. I actually thought that it should have started sooner. I think he's right that things are getting warmer (shocking) but is 20-30 years ahead of time, using the last 7 years to say it's somewhat of a permanent thing. The thing is, the next few Winters might be like this as the decadal states aren't changing anytime soon.

Was looking back at the warnings issued back during the 1998 Derecho for the anniversary and man it's kinda crazy to see they issued no tornado warnings and the SVRs only mentioned 70 or 80mph winds while 120+ mph gusts were ongoing. Shows how far we've come with warnings.

Chris is very bright and it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if he ends up being 100% correct, but it's still pretty speculative at this point.

Where did I imply that it was wasn't logically sound??? The implication of my statement was that any deduction beyond the fact that there is baseline warming going on is speculation. I have been pretty consistent with expressing that his suggestions are very viable, but we need to get into the next decade to be certain. No one knows for sure how the warming is going to alter global oscillations and circulations moving forward...including Chris because if he did, I can promise you he wouldn't be camped out in front of his laptop posting on a weather forum like the rest of us. Funny thing is that he was actually arguing that I would do BETTER if a replica 2009-2010 season were to take place, as I am near the MA/NH border...so no denial here, which is the term you were looking for...cognitive dissonance is a term used to describe the internal strife that results from living in a manner that is in conflict with your own self esteem, or firmly held convictions, so its not a defense mechanism. Disagreeing with someone doesn't have to mean you are in conflict... its actually more frequently quite the opposite. As far as the "dumb"comment, usually those that feel the need to hurl those insults are working with the most pronounced deficits....I'll leave it at that-

It was a hypothetical statement....which inherently implies that it's not "locked" in...

67 today. Heat kicked on this morning. Enough of that

Maybe they should hire you, the best forecaster to come out the Cann

They’re all shitpoos to me

Mid 80's and low 90's have never been uncommon in New England during the summer months over the last 150 years. The biggest increases have been in dewpoints and low temps over the last several decades. If you moved here expecting 60's and 70's during the summer... well... we aren't Canada...

"Stick to your long-johns untill your long-johns stick to you"

The only good news. The weather's so amazing right now it's darn depressing that it could be months before it happens again, but I remember seeing a couple of overcast days with highs in the 60s last summer, so... Hey, that's one reason I moved here. Those projected mid-week temperatures are a big yikes. Feel like I've gone back to the south.

Yeah seasonably warm, that's what I was saying. We agree. I know your area can be cooler relative to most of the region, but overall looks near to slightly above the next couple weeks.

Thick hazy smoke all weekend. Might have some surface smoke tomorrow. NWS mentioned the potential for Smoky rain with the cold front tomorrow.

“Remember that sunny day we spent hiking in the Greens? Yeah me neither.”

Pretty meh right now. Maybe a second wave 10-12.

I definitely feel confident we're getting away from these closed off lows and below normal temps, but the foreseeable future does not look super hot or humid. Definitely a few AN days this upcoming week, but longer term it's looking mostly seasonable here, maybe a couple of degrees above normal through the rest of June into early July - with the usual spikes and valleys in temps. CanSIPS has us slightly above normal next three months, with all the AN heat being confined to the west and and in Canada. Southeast US is below normal. Not the look you want for extended amounts of temps and dews. My call right now is no heat wave (5 days consecutive 90+) for Southern New England through June. Northern New England has better chances at it...

Finally mowed around the pawpaw grove tonight…can’t get through there with the rider (fences around trees) and the push mower hasn’t been working. $13 carb replacement later and it’s better than ever.

51/45… trying to stay awake to see the lights if possible.

Fire is always a good enough reason.

It’s like the old joke… “I can’t wait for summer in Vermont. Last year it was on a Tuesday.”

Battery expansion. Need a new battery, fellow Toledo'n

If the smoke stays out of it, then this should be helpful: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast

Looks like a fail . Can't see it if you don't look I guess.

Can you give me some other reason to sit by the fire and drink beer later than I should? Thanks in advance...

Boo!