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If I were there right now I'd be makin a road trip to DE or New Jersey. Man that place is gonna get demolished!

You have a decent shot of getting deformed.

I don't know that one...."fair weather" and "good ole days" are my go-tos.

will be the biggest anxiety of my life tomorrow morning when i wake up to check on to see what happened overnight in terms of trends. not gonna stay up for the 00z euro. im afraid of what its gonna show.

Genuinely concerned about downed trees and power outages here. We have a trailer that's surrounded by some very tall oak trees, and the wind direction has me nervous. My only consolation is that they have survived Isabel, Isaias, Sandy, etc..

we have a girl kitty who loves the "white bugs". i hope she gets to see them during the day tomorrow.

The day the event started the forecast had backed off to like 10-15 or 12-18 but it was evident it was in trouble early.

I actually don’t think they are- this is a crazy strong storm and rates are going to be unlike anything east coast has seen in a long time. Warmer also means more moisture available and seeing the dynamics at play someone’s getting buried. That being said, if you’re outside the areas of max lift (DC area) I could see a white rain event. Praying on the IVT is like playing lottery

For Jan 2016 I remember it raining for about 30 seconds in Austin and getting windy, which was the initiating system to get the HECS going. That was my part in it. It was 50/50ish until the last minute how much would make it to NYC. That day it was gorgeous, 75 degrees there and I just looked at the palm tree next to my swimming pool and laughed.

It’s a definite possibility if we end up training convection into the CCB. Some of the models have that April ‘97 look with that feature.

West Concord currently

So am I correct that at 1 am we get 5 meso runs ?,,,,,if I can stay awake that long as I am spent

The biggest issue seems to be if one or two model runs showed 20" of snow then disappointment takes over when it changes to 4-8. There have been 4 storms at least this season that Central Va was bullseyed for double sis it inches and the most we've has has been like 5

Where are you? I get less jackpot needy if I already have a great pack...I would be fine with like 16", too.

Let me know if you see it.

Trammel Starks Pier 32 is mandatory for sn++

I think so.

I think I am coming to terms with likely being in between the best zones - I’ll take a 16” anyday

Is there a possibility of some in SE MA getting 30 out of this?

Great write-up. This also demonstrates why it's so hard for models to pinpoint storms with these setups.

RIGHT over my Accordion!!

I've asked about him a few times. Has he passed away?

It has to be something with their temperature algorithm.

I know this isn't a SWFE, but the NAM is usually pretty good at resolving mid level thermals within 48 hours.

I'm already enjoying the whole situation regardless. Everything's covered with frost and crispy out here at my buddies in Lisburn. The rocket stoves fired up and the soup's about to go on the barrel. I'm doing my couple mile walk home and possibly beyond tonight regardless of what might be coming from the sky.