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  2. GaWx
    Flying today for the first time in over a decade! Especially because I haven’t flown in so long, flying is still fascinating to me and I’m always at a window looking out! On way to CO, 1st stop is in Detroit, my first time in Michigan. The views of W Lake Erie, my first time seeing Erie, were awesome. Noting the fair wx cumulus over land areas due to heating in the early afternoon while mainly clear over the cooler lake: @roardog
  3. Eskimo Joe
    It's not unreasonable to be pessimistic on snow chances in winter anymore, especially south of 40N. We've been in such a long term snow drought that it's almost safer to forecast Above Normal temps and Below Normal snowfall. You stand a good chance of being right most years outside of New England. Heck, I could see this being a shutout in the snowfall department south of DC this winter. Several folks on here appear to have already punted December and the first half of January!
  4. Bob Chill
    It's an "easy" enso setup to make some decent predictions if you just look at the Nino regions. Where I'm getting hung up is the Npac. There is so much warmth throughout the pac basin that it makes me far less confident predicting standard strong nino conditions. But given the strength of the nino, its hard to bet against a wet southern stream. Its still only August but if the Npac/pdo regions continue to be the opposite of what we really want to see, my gut says this winter will do some weird things that few expect/predict. The pessimistic side of me thinks the pac will overwhelm north America and it will be warm and wet with few chances at good snowfall even to our north and west. The optimistic side of me says we're in a long term HL blocking period and even the EPO will punch cold to very cold air into the conus with a suppressed/favorable southern stream. Meaning the winter could be unusually cold east of the Rockies for a strong nino. I would be pretty funny if its a dry winter though. Maybe the southern stream cuts well west of us or stays south of the gulf coast lol
  5. Brian D
    0.23" last night at the co-op brings me to 0.33" MTD. Got ya beat for what it's worth. Flood Bay precip observer has 0.26" for MTD of 0.46". Cyclone hole shifted N.
  6. BlizzardWx
    It's been a lot of work setting it up, let me know if there is anything you want added. I'm open to requests and it helps all of us to have better tools. I'm going to have to think about this to deeply understand but I think I like this idea! If I can figure out a way to automate it I'll add it to the site.
  7. CT Valley Snowman
    Yeah pretty sure he did. Maybe not the absolute worst but bad enough.
  8. Today
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh, pretty please...this would represent an interplanetary orgie for me. Don't get me wrong, I'm sure it will come with some unforeseen, dystopian (as John would say)externality, but we are getting those anyway with the hockey-stick rate of CC, so what the hell...may as well get some snow and cold on the way to meeting our collective maker.
  10. SACRUS
    Quickly to 89 here
  11. csnavywx
    Might be sooner. In a separate interview the author said it may start earlier with the sub-polar gyre and we're already hugging the upper end of the equiv. warming rates in the paper.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll take the over on "barely any snow" in Michigan this coming winter, but a +10 month would not shock me.
  13. dendrite
    He used to post the “Steffi” here from time to time.
  14. LakePaste25
    that’s why super ninos all have below normal snow here. Every month is usually greater than +3. No room for week+ long lake snow blitz’s to save the season.
  15. LakePaste25
    Here as well, at least on a daily basis. +3 or +4 in the monthly is probably the upper limit here where I can get a week of big lake snows while the rest of the month is a torch. Higher than +4, we’re getting into “the whole month is shot outside of a some minor/medium snowfalls” territory.
  16. forkyfork
    you are going to get at least one +10 month and barely any snow
  17. vortex95
    Andrew in Aug 1992 was among the "luckiest" intense hurricanes I have seen. It struggled for days N of the Caribbean due to an upper low. In fact, one could argue it actually lost its sfc circulation for a time as recon found only 1015 mb pressure! FL winds were still near hurricane-force though due to gradient from high pressure to the N, so they keep it going. But then the upper low moved away to the SW and a strong 500 mb high built due N, resulting in nearly ideal conditions, and we saw what happened. 1992 was a "quiet" hurricane season overall, but reanalysis has shown 4-5 systems that were at least of min TS strength (two hurricanes) that were never declared operationally. They will all likely get added once the reanalysis project reaches this year.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    2060? Damn, I'll be 80....lets speed that up-
  19. kdxken
    Is this the one where runaway iceberg got smoked?
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well in my area, it really needs to be a bit cooler than average to get big snows, but I'm not suggesting that.
  21. michsnowfreak
    Sometimes people confuse the discussion of wintry potential and temp departures as if the two have to go hand in hand. Discussion of above avg temps in the mean has never wavered in this thread, even when pointing out models that disagree (ie Cansips). A cool stat out of Marquette, MI. Their snowiest winter on record, 319.8" in 2001-02, was also their 3rd warmest winter on record.
  22. vortex95
    I bet there is another meso model out there that has strengths of the NAM. Just we have been so used to the NAM, we have not being forced otherwise to look! So now we will be looking. @CoastalWx misses having access to the IBM GRAF! LOL.
  23. michsnowfreak
    I will say, all things considered and all the discussion in this thread....I am not as worried about this winter locally as I would a normal strong Nino. Of course, I still expect an overall subpar winter. Just not as subpar as strong Ninos can be. Its going to be fascinating (and likely at times frustrating) to see how the nino does affect overall weather patterns.
  24. csnavywx
    That "snap back" effect may be more pronounced than currently imagined: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-026-02730-w
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is my favored scenario attm.
  26. ORH_wxman
    If we get some sustained -AO periods, I think we'll have some good chances for big events....I'm def favoring a warm winter, but we know El Ninos can also be really schizophrenic....you could have obscene warmth for 3-4 weeks and then get pummeled for 2-3 weeks too (this happened in the '82-'83 winter). I think the best hope for big snow this winter will be to get into a super juiced Nino pattern while we have a favorable AO....and then you end up cleaning up for a 3 week period.
  27. 40/70 Benchmark
    My crude theory is that the planet ultimately finds a way to achieve some semblance of an equilibrium....and this unprecedented El Nino is a testament to that.
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