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What a beautiful November day

Here's what the prediction on July 1st would have been using this year's data: The sea ice area was at 6.868 million sq km on July 1st which if you take the melt from that point forward of every year since 1979 would give us a final minimum average of 3.0 million sq km. However, whereas the trend for post-July 1st area loss was pretty flat until about 2013-2014, it has since developed into a statistically significant trend, so in recent years, I've used post-2007 numbers to make the forecast. Using post-2007 melt after July 1st would produce an average sea ice area minimum of 2.8 million sq km. We'll see where it ends, but the forecast would've been 2.8 million sqkm (prob around 2.6-3.0 with error bars). For reference, the top 3 lowest are 2.22 million sq km (2012), 2.46 million sq km (2016), and 2.47 million sq km (2024). Area is currently 3.26 million sq km....this late in the season, a top 3 is unreachable. I don't think I'd change the final prediction from what it would have been...maybe shade it toward the higher end of the 2.6-3.0 range.

0.17" here so far. It has been light but it's steadily adding up. At least it's enough to give things a watering. We'll have to see if we can get a heavier downpour from the activity in PA later. HRRR isn't picking up on it but it's possible.

Rain bands showing up on KMHX radar.

This radar has been running hot with a tad of bright banding. Lots of dry air just off the deck helping with that.

Getting a downpour now

pouring cold rain and smoked out airmasses, coc

Looked like on radar you were getting more.

Speaking of lows:

Where the hell have you been?

it looks like August will average below normal.. its been awhile since we could say that

It's too weak.

One of the worst summer days in many many years. Congrats Coc ks

great week coming up! Detailed Forecast This Afternoon Showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 62. East wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Tonight Showers likely, mainly before 9pm. Patchy fog. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 51. East wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Thursday Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 69. Northeast wind 6 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 50. Northeast wind around 7 mph. Friday Sunny, with a high near 78. Northeast wind 6 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 52. Calm wind. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 81. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in the morning. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 57. South wind around 6 mph. Sunday Partly sunny, with a high near 77. South wind 6 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Sunday Night Showers likely, mainly after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. South wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Monday Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. South wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Monday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 73. West wind 5 to 10 mph.

So is this

Same. 57.9F high so far.

looks like we will stay in the 50s here today

Drizzle/misty all day..Just was able to get one job in

Steady light rain all day here Currently at .13, will probably nickel and dime our way to a quarter

Excellent post, Tip. The part I emboldened in is an excellent point. One I have made numerous times. When you factor that into the equation, there is NO central US warming hole. It disappears. Current summers FEEL much hotter than summers of the past, including the Dust Bowl, which were the driest (least humid) on record. And while some may say "heat index" is subjective, it's really just a proxy for the wet bulb temperature reading. And that can, in fact, become deadly, even at relatively modest dry bulb temperatures with full (or near full) saturation. Anyways, I often see certain people who deny (some people on here get offended with the term "denier" even though they have used that term profusely in the past, but I digress)... people who deny climate change often say highs are of more value, because lows are more affected by UHI. I would actually argue the exact opposite, and say high temperature readings are more impacted by siting/exposure characteristics and equipment, and low temperatures give us a better look at actual trends.

The activity in PA seems to be moving this way

Low high temp at BDL is 70 from 1922 Current high for the day is 63

Meso models hinted at it yesterday. I-90 special. These very rarely if ever work out IMBY. Somehow they always nudge north and west. I guess 12-15 more hours of mist that gets the total to 0.5”.

CT RI and to about PYM rains. Now that I dropped fert we