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Models overnight seemed to get a little better for more widespread 1-2” rain across the area. Maybe we can have a low develop for a while along the front and enhance the rain to the east of the main low. In any event it’s still much needed. Edit-6z looks lame east of the city again and many would have a very quick dry slot and under 0.5”.

Article on disaster recovery industry in the US, not the growth industry that we want. No paywall. https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2025-disaster-industrial-complex-us-economy/?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc2MTUyMDQyNywiZXhwIjoxNzYyMTI1MjI3LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJUNEkyRTBHUFdDSUowMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiJEQ0NGODY3Qzk2ODk0MzJDQjRBMEMwM0FENDNGNTJENyJ9.6iPDZtLjiXpOkigBvxm123_KbyMeWuSopTRZeGoG36E&leadSource=uverify wall

I would expect the mountainous terrain of Eastern Cuba to rip up the low-level vorticity quite a bit here. Might not drop below hurricane intensity, but that combined with increasing shear, I doubt Melissa will be able to regain major status again prior to any impact on Bermuda.

Here, 28/28, but will drop a few degrees by dawn (4am NWS local station). It's almost 5am now. We have had about the same temp every day for the past four or so mornings. Over one inch of rain coming! Ready for some weather ovah heah.

I may have misspoken. Keene is about 200 feet higher than I am. It is a few degrees colder in the valley here than at my local NWS station, KEEN. No worries, I will have my new outdoor thermometer set up at my new apartment next month. Moving stuff out of here now, not worth it at this time. As for the Christmas tree farm, that's a good point, ha! I'll be sure to get a reading when the time comes, and report back.

For as long as I live, I will never forget Melissa. What a storm!

The northern eyewall is now onshore.

Dropped a category, I see. I figured they'd at least hold at a 4 since the satellite appearance had recovered this evening. But a few knots difference is paltry. I read that maybe recon is not finding much to support above 115 mph.

Hopefully, they will stay out of the southeastern quadrant of the eyewall. Based on radar motion, they should miss it to their west. The terrain at the coast is rather rugged west of Santiago, so surge isn't as much a problem there. But Santiago proper has the harbor and low-lying area. They probably will get some surge, but not as bad as actually taking a hit from within eyewall. Melissa is also moving at a pretty decent clip now, so hopefully inland flooding off of the higher elevations won't compound the issue.

Dropped a category, I see. I figured they'd at least hold at a 4 since the satellite appearance had recovered this evening. But a few knots difference is paltry.

Any thoughts on surge threat for Santiago de Cuba? I looked the city up on Google street view, there are some photo spheres showing that part of the colonial heart is just a few feet above the bay there.

2:00 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 Location: 19.7°N 76.4°W Moving: NE at 10 mph Min pressure: 952 mb Max sustained: 125 mph

Trying to adjust and pinpoint motion to landfall. Barring any wobbles, it looks like the center will cross somewhere directly between Chivrico and Santiago. There is a small community on route 20 located there with an icon on the coast named Playa Aserradero. Not sure if anyone is familiar with the coastal region there.

With recon done I doubt there are any new updates to intensity outside of whatever they decide at 2am.

Perhaps two to three hours to landfall based on radar.

Not sure how much time it has left, but it’s really trying to intensify.

VHT bursting in the northern eyewall.

That's really interesting! I tapped it...... Hope you guys get good soaking rains.

Chivrico is a town that might get a direct hit. It's west of Santiago on coastal route 20. It's located at -76.4 W and that looks about where the eye will come ashore. Santiago should be just far enough east to stay out of the eyewall. Fortunately, the location around Chivrico is not as prone to surge. Melissa will be mostly a wind event and hopefully it's gaining enough forward speed to mitigate flash flooding from torrential rain.

Worried about Santiago de Cuba. Second largest city in the country.

Picked up another 1.3 inches of rain since that last post. It was drizzle and light rain most of today.

Impressive.

Agreed, the ongoing contraction of the core as the vortices get back in concert with each other tells me we should see additional pressure falls through landfall. Insanely anomalous to get a Cat-4 strike in this area of Cuba that is so well guarded by mountainous islands. Sandy is obviously the gold standard when it comes to poleward tracking hurricane intensification over the Eastern Cayman Trench (kind of shocked there isn't a more descriptive name that's easy to find for this body of water), but Melissa is putting on an impressive performance.

I hate the cold, dark mornings so yes it's fine. Can't imagine it still being dark at 8-830.