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Thump to rain on the GFS.

Very cold low of -12.3 this morning. Second coldest low so far this season (few weeks ago it was -16.8).

I couldn’t care less about jacks. Just looking for 1-3

Sometimes you just need to look at the big picture, and you can use this gfs run as an example. You have a short wave approaching with low pressure approaching the Carolinas, but look at that bulge of warm air and ridging to the west. You’re also losing the high to the east. So all around you’re getting warm air advection pretty much surrounding this low and that short wave now is starting to attenuate because of that push-up warmth behind it. This is what I mean by not being in a good set up. Could it work, I guess if you really thread a needle, but all I’m trying to do is have people at least understand that this might not work out.

I was in Salisbury on Saturday night between 6pm and 11pm or so and they clearly had some decent accumulation but how they ever got an accurate measurement is beyond me. The wind was blowing pretty good and snow was drifting across the road all going out to sea. There were a few driveways that were untouched where you could see a good 6"-10" or so via the tire tracks of cars pulling in or out. No real problems getting around but the local DPW was definitely going to need to hit those drifts periodically.

Not sure what you want. You have other members including Mets talking about the Monday setup and moderation. I never said snow is impossible, I said the setup is tough and rain is a viable option.

We had a decent airmass and a high in a good position. Though. Of all events the mid month deal had a good airmass for the time of year.

Most important runs of mid February incoming…

Yes tenor of the season. Clippers dropping further south each run. Ray to Scooter JP

That Clarksville station seems to run strangely cold, (0 deg). I remember it was a -7 outlier on Jan 30 (when I attended a funeral in Clarksville)

this is a great thread that walks through the entire performance and provides the context for each scene: https://bsky.app/profile/beckyhammer.bsky.social/post/3mefhbpictk2h

There has been snow on the ground here since Dec 2nd. It's definitely been better than the past few winters, especially with regards to pack retention. Very wintery feel for weeks and weeks now.

Stop twisting it around. You know how you've acted, take responsibility. Once you do that we can take the pacifier back and you will have graduated to a big boy pants!!

A lot of the March 2018 events were tenuous, too.....can still work. There was not a ton of cold around that month.

I just turned to watch Bugs Bunny when the halftime show was on. Nothing against the headline performer, but I'm an old skool R&B fan (in other words, my taste in music is simply not aligned with the 2026 mainstream audience). I didn't watch Kendrick Lamar's performance either last year. The actual game was pitiful, although it is funny how badly Drake Maye was finally exposed after the run he had...

Congrats on the mesos 3 to 6

the song he was singing then--Yo Perreo Sola/I Twerk Alone--is literally about women having the freedom to dance without men hitting on them or slut-shaming them or assaulting them. the irony is overwhelming.

I don’t know if this is the type of system for that. It’s more about seeing what all the models have and the trends, and then figuring out the best solution.

Looks like GFS, CMC, RGEM and NAM all on board for 1"-3" At least NoP. Euro and ICON not as enthused.

Shouldn’t Mesos handle this better ?

@AlexD1990 see you are in Lewes, DE. Mr. J and I took a trip back the end of September to DE as we had never been there. Stayed in a lovely AirBB just outside of Rehoboth Beach. We ventured up to Lewes. Visited the lovely museum in town. Had some Kickin’ Chicken in the beautiful park just behind it and then ventured down the streets to a secluded beach down by the Yacht club. Had a great time!

what’s with the hurricane today? It’s windier than it was over the weekend

Yeah it’s like an initial fronto finger followed by general WAA from the SW.

Thank you. It’s highly annoying. I want snow more than anyone, but I’m not going to play mental games and convince myself. Hope Monday works out, but it’s tenuous in many ways.

At least it's been a good kind of Zzzzzzz for some of us...