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Lets hope the others jump on board. We do have blocking.

Don't even look at the GFS "clown" maps for Friday. You will not be able to unsee them.

lol oh GFS…

Wxwatcher picked a great season to move to SLK. Cold and snow combo.

That's a big shift from the GFS. It represents the southern edge of its ensemble spread from 12z and 18z as well as several of the ECM ens members. We pray! If it's real we would expect to see movement from other models over the next day or two. I'm doubtful for now but the ECM has been hinting at this possibility...

With the block its possible but need the others on board.

Woof

0z GFS has a significant snowstorm for Friday.

AI gfs shows a snowstorm New 0z gfs

Yep

I don't put too much stock in the GFS-AI, but it's showing snow and ice for Friday 12/26: >0.5 liquid with surface temps at or below freezing NYC north throughout the event. It has hinted at this wintry outcome for several cycles. There is a little support amongst the ensembles, particularly the ECM suite, but the majority of mid-range guidance takes the boundary well north of us, favoring NNE for wintry precip.

Gfs coming in south with a nice press for the 27th

A lot of our stinkers in recent years have been Februaries that are no shows. 2017, 2020, and 2023 had multiple 70 degree days and in the latter example an 80+ day.

Maps?

GFS solid for most

This forum is the best of any of them. Everyone gives sound reasoning & terrific discussion as to why. Everyone is welcoming & helps others learn. There is no negativity & winter cancel thankfully. Yeah the pattern has not been the best for snow in TN but when has there ever been a snowy December in TN? Yet many places have had a lot of snow already. As Carver said it’s been a well below average December. Many days have been like a January day. December has been a win in my book. It’s felt like Christmas! I do hope everyone is having a great Christmas season & wish everyone a Merry Christmas!

That's it. Pound the rock. Throw it to Zay. Play solid D. Win or go the fuck home.

Lamar so fragile. Pretty sure Mahomes would be playing with a tweak to his back. Whatever. LFG Huntley!

February is the snowiest month in DC on average is it not? It’s not even January what is this lol

The WPC maps have <10% probability for 2" of snow in the far northern reaches of the OKX forecast area, including elevations above 1000ft. That should have nothing to do with "white rain." Those areas might not get 2" of snow. But I would like to know what the basis is for assigning a probability of less than 1 in 10 chance.

Other than the usual weird jump by the NAM, so far 0z looks similar to previous cycles. Changes look like noise to me... Still looks like a coating to 3" or so from the south coasts to far northern suburbs with a ragged and unpredictable gradient... The variable and inconsistent geographic distribution of snowfall between models suggests a low probability forecast. Model changes are being driven by very minor differences in vorticity and micro-short-waves. The WRF-NSSL is the weenie model of 0z with 3-5" right through the NYC metro. Unlikely but probably not impossible.

Some people aren't very good students of history, it appears. How many times do predictions of things like "food insecurity" have to be wrong in order for people to learn? Sorry but alarmism like this deservers to be mocked. It certainly doesn't help the cause any.

Agree on the Jan 15-Feb 1 timeframe.

Best of both worlds.