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  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is nuts....you just recreated my extra tropical Pacific composite. I hadn't even viewed that correlation map, either. Matches it 100%.
  3. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  4. NorthHillsWx
    First measurable rain since start of the month but just 0.02” lol
  5. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  6. SchaumburgStormer
    That was a fun way to kill an hour. Storm had a lot of low level rotation but it was broad. Needed just a little kick to tighten it up and it may have spun up a quick one. Passed just NE of me, so I got to watch the whole evolution on the deck.
  7. cyclone77
    Getting a few anvil sprinkles here with the sun still out.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think a lot of attention is paid to the Pacific when ENSO may actually effect N. America directly If you look at the cold season correlation with Nino 1+2 there is actually a slightly higher max in N. America, north of the Great Lakes, than the NPH area in the N. Pacific It will be interesting to see what happens this Winter in this regard as the PDO/overall 500mb state of the Pacific is so different from El Nino atm.
  9. SchaumburgStormer
    It’s trying to wrap up due east of me
  10. doncat
    Wettest summer here was the Irene year of 2011 with 27.50", helped along with 21.55" in Aug. Also had 27" during the 30 day period from 8/5-9/5. Driest summer was 6.60" in 1999.
  11. TriPol
    I wonder what the animals thought of yesterday's heavy rain.
  12. stormy
    You are exactly right! West of the BR we have fallen into a God-awful pattern whereby feedback from previously existing conditions, foils the best and brightest of the models. The only hope we have is a +2.9 - 3.0 Nino breaking this pattern between Oct 1 and Dec. 31. Earlier today the Euro said, this will happen. The problem is that the Euro is not smart enough to fathom the feedback atmospherics of a serious Drought. Sorry Ji, "elite" is not perfect.
  13. weatherwiz
    Will be some nasty storms around Sunday if we can destabilize enough
  14. donsutherland1
    In the wake of yesterday's heavy rain, I went out to Queens to get some photos on a day off. Below are six photos from Alley Pond and Oakland Lake.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    You know as well as I do that their forecasts underperform. I think they use mostly models, and you can actually utilize other methods (PDO, AMO, Summer N. Atlantic SSTAs, Summer arctic 500mb), to do better. As least that's how it's verified in the last 15 years. Keep in mind though that they did do really well in 15-16 and 23-24. Two of their best forecasts. but yeah, the possible fluctuation is pretty big. 18-19 was stock ENSO for a weaker Nino and it verified opposite. They had near average last Winter in the Rockies and some places were +10F for DJFM.
  16. Prismshine Productions
    Nascar at Loudon. Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    Another arctic low at -400dm today. <5100dm! Since the Solar Max peak we have been getting this a lot May-Sept (24-26). A lot of the "patterns" seem consistent actually - warm start to Summer locally then near average or cooler ending. July-Aug being wettest months locally.
  18. tamarack
    GYX discussions seemed promising for the weekend but as is often the case, the forecast is "less than a tenth of an inch possible" (which usually verifies). Sandy River is down to 77 cfs, well below the 25% level. Median is 157.
  19. SchaumburgStormer
    Narrator voice. It was not, in fact, his moment as the storm drifted just NE dropping .01” of rain
  20. Today
  21. CAPE
    Was that his way of saying 'drought begets drought'?
  22. vortex95
    The warm front "connection" again! But this time it should bodily move N and not hang out along the S Coast.
  23. Yardstickgozinya
    Somehow, I miss reading this post before I just did my last round of posting. I thought maybe there were still some doubts. I did notice that the article just mentioned confirmation atEastern York High school. Obviously Colombia will be a confirmation too.
  24. CAPE
    As in that this team could actually contend this year? Fuck no. But the reality is at least one awful team is going to make the playoffs, which is complete crap, and one issue MLB faces right now. Stop being the NBA(making the long regular season largely meaningless), and figure out how to come up with a cap/floor to achieve some semblance of competitive balance.
  25. CoastalWx
    Yes, Saturday night will probably have an area of heavy rain as there actually looks to be forcing on the warm front and decent dynamics. But it may not all be widespread either.
  26. SchaumburgStormer
    Broad rotation, but nothing too exciting right now. Constant low rumble of thunder though
  27. yoda
    Arsenal pretty much toying with Coventry
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