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Really looked like it might come north a touch even if still narrow but the GFS is dead set on a bay jackpot

GFS is fugly. Hope it's wrong. I hope after the upcoming thaw we can get back in the freezer by the end of the year. I know a lot of people hate dry and cold...I get it, but I hate warm when it's supposed to be cold. God knows we have many months of warm weather.

FWIW, big improvement on the 18z RRFS vs. 12z... now generally in line with NAM and RGEM.

It’s kind of a tease because if you amped this up just a little, you’d probably have quite an intense fronto band with good ratios…difference between a 1-2” scraper and a 5-8” fluff job.

Slightly improvements on rgem and GFS but we’re at the point where it can’t trend back. It has to keep ticking better for this to be a solid event outside of the south coast and far SE/Cape.

This will not be the event that unites us unfortunately. Good thing is it is a rather wimpy pos so even those who get the 'good' snow are probably looking at a max of 2-3", and most will see an inch or less.

Getting late in the game. It was a closer graze, but it would take 5 more moves like that to just get anything even remotely interesting

GFS essentially gives the shaft anyone north of like mid-bucks county. From there to Philly it is about 1-3in

went from like 1.2" to 1.5"

Yeah virtually identical - awful for nw areas.

It will end up falling on 1 lane of 95 from DC to NY

Gfs slightly better

Looks like the stripe got more narrow

Still early for the gfs

Oh it's a disaster for some

Yup. But the magnitude of run to run changes is so small at this time range now that it will be really difficult to see big improvements. The range of outcomes has significantly narrowed.

What is the timing onset for TRI(if it gets here) tonight? I haven't even bothered to look!

GFS should be a better graze, but nothing like the RGEM or Euro is my guess.

Pretty similar through hr 65

Looks very similar to 12z through 51, just everything is a touch north. Seems like it will amp a bit more too. Just gotta hope it isn’t too much; could be good if the lid stays on

Remarkable consistency from the icon. Barely moved from 12z

Yep, small tick NW with the 500mb low. Tiny move though

I can't wait until next Wednesday and Thursday!!!