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I appreciate the posting of the UK model because like you stated it is often overlooked.

One of the worst forecast busts you’ll see. Parts of CNC got put under a FFW for up to 5-8” of rain in isolated spots and they won’t even see a drop! Here we went from 1”+ and 80% chance of rain all day to mostly cloudy I didn’t publicly call this but I said to my wife last night when we were talking about plans today if it was going to rain but I said it seemed the low was much further east than models were initializing so I wondered if we would get less rain all day. Did not think it would be this dry across the entire area though!

Through 10z Wednesday the latest HRRR has less than 0.25" QPF north of US 50 in Maryland.

LWX is back up.

The 9/16 12z HREF:

Not always. Sometimes in these confluence situations the northern edge is too far north since dry air just eats away the precip. If the ridge or confluence to the north ends up weaker, the precip can climb north.

Looks scattered and models won't be able to hone in on the exact areas that get a good downpour-obviously NYC S and E favored

Great Q, big ten fan! 1. The UK has been found to be a top tier model when looking at average errors over the longterm. 2. I like to post all of the majors, good model or not. But I like to post the UK also for some other reasons like: -it’s the only one I can find with definitive textual output that’s easy to post without taking up image space and it allows one to post the entire run for a TC on just one page -so, it’s also good for documentation purposes for when one wants to look back at it for a particular TC or a TC that never formed like the recent Invest 91L -this complete run’s textual output comes out earlier than all but the Icon of the majors -The UKMET is often overlooked. You see lots of Icon, GFS, and Euro posts, but hardly any UK despite it overall being a good model. So, I happily fill in that gap.

Rain spreading into Lanco now .

Models are wishy washy with how much rain falls up here They mostly all bring the low up here to affect us, they just differ in how much rain actually falls once it's here.

Dont worry, we sizzle this friday and the last week of september + first half of october.

Ant would be quite prolific lol

there would be lots of wishcasting, posting of every model run, and radar hallucinations lol

it looks more like a noreaster to me, Larry

It's Karma if that happens, for the cruelty we do to other animals.

People will still say they can adapt, remember humans came from Africa, so if we evolve to that kind of climate all over the world, we'll just return to our roots

Yes! Not drought / rainfall related... 100% cicadas related...

This feels like winter and wondering where the cut off will be lol. Either way, if this kind of system happens in the winter, there will be a lot of hair being pulled out watching ACY get 20 inches of snow while this area probably wouldn't even reach 6 inches.

As do I, but again....don't expect the pervasive of an RNA.

I wish August into September had been warmer, but the real heat ended after July.

I see 22-23 as a good analog.

Yea, I'm sure it would be warmer for Xmas.

this is definitely going to be a noreaster and not a *coastal low* coastal low is the most PC term I can think of

Wind is picking up

Just a question. You seem to quote the UK model quite often. Is it that good of a tropical model?