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HRRR has some big rips

That is pretty pleasant fall like October temperatures enjoy Daniel Boone mostly to partly cloudy here windy and cool .

So the dam was never rebuilt?

Down to 45 here after topping out at 56. I see the euro is beginning to hint at the first flakes of the season around Halloween. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

Yes, that seems to have been an exception, prominent as it was.

This doesn’t mean anything in October

Wind blew down the BP gas station sign near me. Knocked down part of the roof of the convenience store when it fell.

Massive flooding which broke a dam which formed the lake.

Temp now down to 56..we've dropped about 10 degrees in an hour.

Only 13% of winters since 1980 have had a sub -0.25 DJF averaged NAO and they were all within 2 years of a sunspot minimum. All 4 sunspot minimums since the mid 80s have had either 1 or 2 sub -0.25 NAO winters. They were way more common from the late 1950s through late 1970s. This is despite Octobers pretty heavily favoring -NAO the last 15 or so years!

Nearly 10 days to go......what could possibly go wrong?

Currently 52 degrees here after a heavy Squall line moved through about 45 minutes ago. .76" of Rain so far today. A good bit more than forecasted. Way more than the terrible HRRR had for us.

I haven’t really seen anything with the people I’m following in East Tennessee no posts or weather coverage .

I take nothing seriously from a quack who failed out of meteorology school

Currently 52 degrees here after a heavy Squall line moved through about 45 minutes ago. .76" of Rain so far today. A good bit more than forecasted. Way more than the terrible HRRR had for us.

How about them Pats. Amazing what competent coaching and some decent drafting and signing can do. Plus a weak strength of schedule . Not convinced they are "very good", but at least they are playoff worthy in a weak AFC.

Yes, there are already some studies suggesting that it erodes critical thinking skills. That's a real problem.

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This is another example why I call out hypesters such as Bamwx, et al., at times: Notice his claim about the Fall NAO vs. the Winter NAO. Most of his readers likely don't know that the NAO's values can be found here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table They take for granted what he says, especially as it might fit their winter preferences. But if one actually takes a look at the actual data, during 1950-2024, there were 38 cases where the fall NAO averaged < 0. From those cases, just 13 (around 34%) saw the winter NAO average < 0. So, almost the opposite of what he claims. That's a fact. It's not speculation. Hype, misleading information, and repeatedly low forecast verification from pushing extremes creates bad perceptions about the many meteorologists who do their best to provide the public with useful, actionable weather information.

Front is here. Temp has dropped to 58 now.

__ Preliminary scoring estimates for October 2025 __ Estimates are based on latest posted end of month anomaly projections in previous post. FORECASTER __________DCA_NYC_BOS_ east _ORD_ATL_IAH_ cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA_west__TOTAL Ephesians2 ____________ 14 _ 34 _ 50 _098 _ 92 _ 90 _72 _252 _350_ 80 _ 74 _ 90 _244 __ 594 Roger Smith ___________ 30 _ 30 _ 34 _094 _ 96 _100_70_266 _360_100 _ 60 _ 56 _216 __ 576 StormchaserChuck1 ___ 36 _ 40 _ 50 _126 _ 86 _ 88 _ 50 _224 _350_ 70 _ 96 _ 80 _246 __ 596 RJay ___________________ 40 _ 40 _ 50 _130 _ 90 _ 70 _ 40 _200 _330_100_100_ 80 _280 __ 610 DonSutherland1 ________ 50 _ 58 _ 70 _178 _ 92 _ 64 _ 34 _ 190 _368 _76 _ 48 _ 76 _200 __ 568 wxallannj _______________54 _ 62 _ 70 _186 _ 40 _ 66 _ 46 _ 152 _338_ 80 _ 86 _ 72 _238 __ 576 hudsonvalley21 _________58 _ 68 _ 78 _204 _ 64 _ 54 _ 36 _ 154 _358 _98 _ 62 _ 76 _236 __ 594 ___ Consensus _________58 _66 _ 74 _ 198 _ 68 _ 64 _ 38 _ 170 _368 _86 _ 78 _ 70 _234 __ 602 so_whats_happening ___60 _ 64 _ 72 _196 _ 70 _ 62 _ 42 _ 174 _370 _ 88 _ 80 _ 48 _216 __ 586 yoda ___________________ 64 _ 82 _ 94 _240 _ 50 _ 64 _ 36 _ 150 _390 _ 86 _ 62 _ 74 _222 __ 612 BKViking _______________ 68 _ 76 _ 86 _230 _ 34 _ 60 _ 24 _ 118 _348 _ 80 _ 80 _ 64 _224 __ 572 Tom ____________________ 70 _ 78 _ 88 _236 _ 56 _ 60 _ 22 _ 138 _374 _ 84 _ 78 _ 70 _232 __ 606 Scotty Lightning ________70 _ 90 _100_260 _ 20 _ 60 _ 20 _ 100 _360 _ 80 _ 70 _ 70 _ 220 __ 580 wxdude64 ______________88 _ 96 _ 86 _270 _ 00 _ 46 _ 10 _ 056 _326 _ 52 _ 96 _ 66 _ 214 __ 540 RodneyS _______________ 98 _ 76 _ 88 _262 _ 76 _ 42 _ 60 _ 178 _ 440 _ 92 _ 88 _ 62 _ 242 __ 682 ___ Normal _____________100 _ 90 _ 80 _270 _ 00 _ 30 _ 00 _ 030 _ 300 _60 _100 _80 _240 __ 540 _______________ ___ Persistence __(Sep) _ 96 _ 82 _ 98 _ 276 _ 60 _ 80 _ 24 _164 _440 _58 _ 80 _ 50 _188 __ 628 =================== EXTREME FORECASTS (for the benefit of new forecasters, an extreme forecast is awarded when either most extreme or second most extreme forecast takes high score. Also, by contest convention, forecasters with fewer than three forecasts in a given year are eligible for these extreme forecasts but they are also scored for contest scoring purposes as if that forecast was not in play, and no loss is awarded when both win under the two systems. The same is true for best scores ... note Yoda has now entered enough contests to void the occasional entry rule). DCA _ On current estimates, RodneyS (and Normal) have a win for lowest forecasts. NYC _ On current estimates, wxdude64 has a win for lowest forecast. BOS _ On current estimates, Scotty Lightning has a win, and wxdude64 a loss, for lowest forecasts. ORD _ On current estimates, no extreme forecast would be awarded. The result will need to be +5.5 or higher. If it were +5.5, RJay would have a win, StormchaserChuck a loss. At +5.6 they would be tied, and at +5.7 or higher, it would be a win for SC. ATL _ This could finish as wins for Ephesians2 and Roger Smith (regular forecast rule if result +3.8 or above), or a win for Roger Smith and loss for Ephesians 2 (if result +3.3 to +3.7), or a win for RodneyS and losses for Roger Smith and Ephesians 2 (if result +2.8 to +3.2). IAH _ On current estimates, this would be scored as wins for Ephesians2 and Roger Smith (regular forecast rule). DEN _ The current estimate of +2.0 is just below the value needed to consider a win-loss scenario (at +2.1 to +2.3, win for hudsonvalley21, and loss for DonSutherland, at +2.4 or above, a win for DonSutherland. PHX _ On current estimates, a win for RJay (0.0) and Normal, and a loss for wxdude64 (-0.2). With third lowest forecast at +0.2, StormchaserChuck joins tie for win at +0.1, and forecast no longer "extreme" at +0.2 to +1.9. SEA _ On current estimates, a win for Ephesians2 and also tied StormchaserChuck and RJay (and Normal) (regular forecast rule) ... would be a win for same regulars and loss for Ephesians2 at any outcome -0.2 to 0.0, no longer extreme at +0.1 or above. __________________________________ (actual forecasts) FORECASTER __________ DCA _NYC _BOS _ORD _ATL _IAH __DEN _PHX _SEA Ephesians2 ____________+4.3 _+3.8 _+3.5 _+5.4 _+4.0 _+3.6 _+1.0 _+1.3 _ -0.5 Roger Smith ___________ +3.5 _+4.0 _+4.3 _+5.2 _+3.5 _+3.5 _+2.0 _+2.0 _+1.2 StormchaserChuck1 ___ +3.2 _+3.5 _+3.5 _+5.7 _+2.9 _+2.5 _+0.5 _+0.2 __0.0 RJay ___________________ +3.0 _+3.5 _+3.5 _+5.5 _+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 __0.0 __0.0 DonSutherland1 ________ +2.5 _+2.6 _+2.5 _+5.4 _+1.7 _+1.7 _+3.2 _+2.6 _+0.2 wxallannj _______________+2.3 _+2.4 _+2.5 _ +2.0 _+1.8 _+2.3 _+1.0 _+0.7 _+0.4 hudsonvalley21 _________+2.1 _+2.1 _ +2.1 __ +3.2 _+1.2 _+1.8 _ +2.1 _+1.9 _+0.2 ___ Consensus _________+2.1 _+2.2 _+2.3__+3.4_+1.7 _+1.9 _+1.3 _+1.1 _+0.5 so_whats_happening __ +2.0 _+2.3 _+2.4 _ +3.5 _+1.6 _+2.1 _ +1.4 _ +1.0 _ +1.6 yoda ___________________ +1.8 _+1.4 _+1.3 __+2.5 _ +1.7 _+1.8 _ +1.3 _ +1.9 _+0.3 BKViking _______________ +1.6 _+1.7 _+1.7 __+1.7 _+1.5 _+1.2 __+1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.8 Tom ____________________ +1.5 _+1.6 _+1.6 __+2.8 _+1.5 _+1.1 __+1.2 _ +1.1 _ +0.5 Scotty Lightning ________+1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+1.0 _ +1.5 _+1.0 __+1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5 wxdude64 ______________+0.6 _+0.7 _+0.3 _-0.2 _+0.8 _+0.5__-0.4 _-0.2 _+0.7 RodneyS _______________ +0.1 _ +1.7 _+1.6 __+3.8 _+0.6 _+3.0 _+1.6 _+0.6 _+0.9 ___ Normal ______________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _______________ ___ Persistence __(Sep) _-0.2 _+1.4 _+0.9 _+3.0 _+2.5 _+1.2 _-0.1 _+1.0 _+1.5

It reminds me of when the 1978 February Blizzard was predicted a week out, whatever happened to the model that did that anyway? We could use it with how poor skills the models have been showing for winter storms (or the lack thereof) the last several years.

we might need to place some restrictions so children (under 18) aren't using it for their school projects, I feel like it discourages independent thinking.

Raindance, I assume you realize those two analogs had opposite QBO (west) to our current/upcoming east. Any thoughts about that and why they’re still good analogs?