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Decent light show with that storm near Asbury Park from here in Brick.

Looks like we get to do this tomorrow as well. Any idea the focus area for tomorrow or is it just a game of weather roulette. I didn't exactly have a super high rain chance for today this morning, only 40%, and this happened Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

You've been due for a day like this for how many times storms seemed to just miss you the past couple years. I had my crazy storm day last summer with those tropical remnants setting up a 10-15 mile training band that left with me close to 9". Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Some places between Lancaster and Lebanon are almost at 7" from radar estimates Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Well forget sleeping. The whole house is up again. This is some of the most intense and persistent lightning I’ve ever witnessed. Phone keeps buzzing from NWS sending out warnings on an emergency flash flooding event in progress. Can’t get over how the radar just keeps firing in our direction. Very intense night around these parts. I’ll probably have damn near 6” come morning. Aye.

I'm only at 0.70" for the day. 2 miles south they are all above 1.20". Couple miles north and no one's really above 0.45". So you and I are going to still be probably1.5"- 2" below normal for the year to start July while some of our board brethren will be 5"+ above normal. Heck, a couple of stations less than 5 mi from me have 6" more rain on the year than I do and are at +4" Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

The LCL have to be super low with how ridiculous low I see the clouds are during flashes of lightning Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

There is yet another line forming out by Gettysburg. This is nuts…

Happy July and Happy Birthday America!

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.2 1.3 2.0 2.3 3.2

Finally got a tail end of the heavy rain

Fed a bunch of the goes satellite gifs and radar gifs from radarscope along with what sounding data i could get from the RAP for Harrisburg, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Hagerstown and fed it into the custom gpt I've been slowly working on for weather that has plenty of good reference files to use. This is the response to The questions wise is happening and how long will it last The images together diagnose a boundary-anchored convective complex, with deep convection consistently regenerating over the area due to: A stationary mesoscale boundary anchored by terrain and earlier outflows. Sufficient instability and moisture, with storms rooted in the boundary layer. Weak mid- and upper-level winds, allowing for storm anchoring and repeated initiation. GLM confirms high lightning frequency, suggesting mature electrified updrafts. Satellite IR, RGB, and Sandwich images show severe convective indicators like cold U/V tops, ice plumes, and overshoots. [emoji352] Training Storm Duration Forecast – Camp Hill, PA (as of July 1, 2025) Prediction: The storm training over Camp Hill is likely to persist for at least another 90–120 minutes, potentially through midnight local time, with some weakening after that. Here's the expert-level breakdown: --- [emoji680] Why It's Still Ongoing 1. Persistent Boundary Anchoring the Convection Radar, GOES-16 visible (Band 2), and IR (Band 13) imagery show repeated cell development aligned with a quasi-stationary boundary. This boundary is being fed by moist inflow from the south, aided by local terrain (i.e., Blue Mountain convergence). Band 2 shows tight convective towers. Band 13 reveals a consistent overshooting top signal, meaning convection remains deep and strong. 2. GLM Flash Extent Density (FED) GLM data shows high-frequency lightning flash clusters (e.g., >100 flashes per minute locally). This high flash rate correlates with strong, vertically continuous updrafts and storm sustainability. 3. No Synoptic Forcing to Move It Along There's no significant mid- or upper-level jet support to shift the storms eastward. Upper-level winds are weak and the entire convective system is largely terrain-anchored. These are classic ridge-running backbuilders. --- [emoji326] Projected Evolution (Next 2–3 Hours) Time Window Likely Behavior Now–+30 min Persistent intense training over Camp Hill and adjacent downstream zones. New cells forming just upstream. +30–90 min Some signs of weakening begin as storm mergers and outflow contamination reduce instability. Flood threat peaks. +90–150 min Storms begin to decay or shift slightly southeast. Expect residual convection, but lighter and more scattered. --- [emoji3544] What Would End the Training? 1. Cold pool stabilization: If widespread downdrafts from merging cells finally chill the inflow. 2. Low-level exhaustion: Surface-based CAPE drops from rain-cooled air. 3. Nighttime boundary layer stabilization: More likely after 1–2 AM if inflow weakens. --- Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Really a great thunderstorm day! There were big lightning bolts for a long time close by, and I lost power for 3 hours. I was going to comment how earlier this morning it felt like Florida outside.. This thunderstorm season has been one of the better ones in several years. Everything turned green here in March and April.. I don't see any sign of drought. I realize we were below average for like 10 months in a row, but that has broken fast this Spring, in my opinion. Follows the trend that we have seen since 2002: Every time a developing drought occurs, we follow it with much above average precip in the eastern 1/2 of the US.

What a bizarre winter that was, an incredble hot start wiped out by an insane cutter. The meltout in early March felt like armageddon for the ski season and then boom a huge finish with three high elevation bombs (and an eclipse). I don't think we do as well the next time we pull a +8.1, hopefully that's not for a very long time.

It wasn’t a great shot. I’ve been hooking irons off the tee and that’s what happened here. It was a good sideboard I guess. My playing partner hit a much better shot but landed it in a spot where it didn’t hold the green.

Next batch coming through

Manheim approaching 7" now. I'm at 2.5" with heavy rain.

Humid. Swampy.

Forecast Discussion Thursday, July 24, 2025 3:28PM EDT Our break from active and life-threatening weather has once again come to an unfortunate end. From extreme wind storms, high-end derechos, major/violent tornado outbreaks and even an all-time historic blizzard to start out May a few years back, we just cannot seem to catch any break. I mean seriously, what the heck happened at the turn of this decade where since then seemingly EVERY SINGLE KIND of weather event cranks it up to MAXIMUM POWER and causes MAXIMUM pain in this region. Carrying on… For the past couple of days, we’ve been enjoying unseasonably cool conditions with highs in the 70-75F range and lows ranging from the M/U 50s in urban areas and 40s in the mountains. This is courtesy of a longwave trough that has settled in over the eastern half of the US. However, it has become overcast this afternoon with high clouds from Dexter which is currently approaching our area from the south. Dexter is a strengthening major hurricane located off of the SC/GA coastline moving northeast. Dexter is beginning to interact with the trough that is centered just west of our region in the Appalachians/ eastern Ohio Valley. This will become cutoff as we go through the evening and, yet again, this will allow a major tropical system (in this case, Dexter) to get captured by the trough rather than kicked and pinwheel it north and then northwestwards into our region. Rain will spread into the region from southeast to northwest through the night as temps hold in the 60s areawide with the cool air from the trough still in place. This cool air and trough interaction will mean two things. 1. The severe/tornado threat will be low, though not zero, especially in far eastern zones that get a healthy surge of low-level warm tropical air allowing for an elevated tornado threat there. 2. However, the trough interaction will significantly increase the rainfall rates to the northwest and west of the center of Dexter. As a result, the rain will become very heavy over the region by sunrise tomorrow morning. During the day tomorrow torrential rains with increasingly high winds will batter the greater DC and Baltimore metros with 1.5 to 3 inch per hour rainfall rates becoming commonplace and winds gusting up to hurricane force (75-80+ mph gusts) by the late afternoon/early evening hours. The wrath of Dexter will reach its climax tomorrow night as the center moves northwest and loops or stalls over/near the Chesapeake Bay and mouth of the Potomac. Winds could gust up to 100+mph across the forecast area as heavy to torrential rains continue leading to basically universal power outages with significant structural damage. Over the course of the day on Saturday, Dexter will slowly spin down over the region allowing heavy rains and high winds to continue throughout the day. By Sunday, rain should finally taper off to moderate showers with breezy conditions continuing through the day. Rainfall totals: For the greater metro areas rainfall totals of 24 to 40 inches will be commonplace with localized amounts of up to 50 inches. Some spots in the mountains could get in excess of 5 feet of rain. Winds: Wind gusts will reach tropical storm strength from SE to NW between 5am and midday Friday. They will reach hurricane strength from SE to NW between midday and 7pm Friday. The strongest winds will occur between 9pm Friday and 6am Saturday with wind gusts in excess of 125mph possible in eastern zones and the Bay. Peak gusts of 90 to 110mph look most likely in the metros for now. Gusts of 75 to 90mph is the most likely scenario in the mountains and along the I-81 corridor. Though higher elevations could potentially gust as high as 110mph. Once this is all out of here, most likely by Monday, the rest of the coming week looks fairly benign as we head into August with slightly below normal temps and dry conditions for the period… which would be great as, for literally the twentieth time in the past five years, no one will have power. Look, just take care of each other and look out for the elderly and homeless. Be kind. Thoughtful… I'm outta here. An exhausted forecaster wannabe: George BM

The lighting to my SW is impressive. I again am stuck between two cells

j Highs: TEB: 95 PHL: 94 TTN: 93 EWR: 93 New Brnswck: 92 LGA: 91 JFK: 90 NYC: 90 ISP: 89 ACY: 89 BLM: 88 * missing readings

Training thunderstorms getting us good at home (Lancaster) second above average month so far but still down about 5" on the year. @Stormchaserchuck1

I mean recon was in there. It checked all the boxes. It was slop, but def a classic early season short fuse TC.