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It’s even worse closer to the lake. I at least got a couple .25” in 10 minutes type showers the past couple weeks just east of GRR. It’s been hot enough we lose that much to evaporation every day though.

That was a "no chance" Winter. Things weren't even really that close. There were a few -NAO periods, but they linked up with the SE ridge because -NAO/+EPO can actually be the worst Winter pattern ever because it's dry.

As bad as 97-98 and 11-12 were, I think the worst of all time was 01-02. If there was ever a winter that was over before it even began, that was the one. Not only was it an absolute torch from November through March, it was also dry as all hell

Looks nasty in that department over the next 10 days for sure--70+ dewpoints and heat

Yeah timing not particularly favorable and instability will gradually wane during the evening. Probably going to be another big nowcasting day...the mesos have been extremely awful here in terms of convection. Will have to do a good ole fashion synoptic analysis in the morning and try to highlight local boundaries...that's where we'll see convection probably fire early afternoon (albeit isolated). Shouldn't have an issue reaching the convective temp tomorrow.

This is a big heat signal, I notice that when TS moisture misses us to our east, we almost always get big heat (even as late as October.)

Seriously, though....I know this doesn't just happen overnight....I'm sure that the processess that triggered that post 2015 warm pulse have been materializing for a few decades, but its more recntly that its manifested in a more pornounced and accelerated rate of CC.

I think it’s a combo of just randomness and the decision to classify or not as a NS as storm #1 of 2025 might not been named in some of the other seasons since 1951.

That 97-98 season was really something.. I remember being a kid and it didn't snow the entire Winter. Didn't think that was possible. The 2nd half of 96-97 was really warming though, there were buds in the trees as early as late Feb 1997. A storm on 4/1/97 was suppose to give us 12"+ of snow (I was sad it was going to kill all the Spring stuff) but it trended north at the last minute and was only rain.

NW MA has had a lot of clouds during these hot days the past two weeks. I’m guessing our daily highs would’ve been a few degrees higher.

It seems like the timing is just a bit off too. If the remnants were plowing in a bit later tomorrow to sync with the front we’d really be in business.

It's fine to assume that. As it was happening I definitely thought it could be one. But when AI and some fake site claim it was confirmed its total misinformation

most the TS moisture is going to miss to the east-some areas may not see much at all this week....

I think there will be scattered storms potential both tue and wed (especially later wed)

Overall the forcing is on the weak side, but its going to be quite unstable so it will be interesting to see how the convection plays out. There are subtle height falls through the day too. One thing which I think could be a wildcard too is the mid-level lapse rates aren't as terrible as you would think given the setup. Usually in these setups we're dealing with mid-level lapse rates around 5.5 C/KM or even less...we could be around 6 tomorrow...that's still not great but it may be an added boost.

all this humidity could be converted to drinking water

After today our next chance of rain will be Thursday and Friday. Tomorrow will feel far worse than when it hit 100+ on back to back days in June.

I saw those posts too. So annoying.

Flood watch posted, so much for those models yesterday

Quite interesting! What can we take away from this? What conditions allow storms form but not sustain themselves? Just a coincidence? Also, 2024 as an outlier being followed up by another outlier on the opposite side of the spectrum is interesting as well. A sign that hurricane seasons are getting less predictable?

The sun has come out here and the skies have cleared out and that has made the day intolerable. I love heat but hate humidity and this is one of those days you actually want to be cloudy. I imagine tomorrow will be much worse, I see even the south shore of Long Island will probably hit the low 90s tomorrow from my local forecast.

The one that hit about 5 miles northeast of here has tremendous tree damage-that seems to be the trigger for people to assume it was a tornado

Yeah thought about that. Some signs of decent rains just north of WF...but nothing terribly exciting as modeled. It's definitely a recipe for a quick 2-3"+ if it trains for 60-90 min.

Well, I noticed it was warming back in the 90s, if you really want to get technical. But I think most feel like it accelerated after that 2015 El Nino.

Maybe there’s a touch of a signal on the high res, but I wonder if it’s underestimated? Although Chantal’s remnants are a shell of what they were in NC, a boundary and tropical remnants are usually a good mix for heavy rains.