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Meteorologists, What are your current thoughts regarding the December 3rd system? Do we have a good shot at some early-season snow, and if so, what needs to occur for such an event to happen?

But wont that help us? I mean oresssine cold out weff go…And the big contrast in temps can produce some good baroclonicity? Or am I completely mistaken lol?

6z gefs milder in the extended. Canada is cold but more normal at end, with S US roasting. Concerns

@40/70 Benchmark @Donsutherland1 @Bluewave They are finally admitting the obvious… “A stratospheric wave-reflection event is becoming more likely. Energy that had been expected to propagate into the stratosphere and weaken the vortex now appears more likely to reflect back into the troposphere. This often strengthens the Atlantic jet stream and can trigger a rapid recovery in the stratospheric vortex. This is likely why recent modelling has shifted toward a more zonal pattern compared with earlier expectations. If this occurs, and we see downward coupling from the stratosphere into the troposphere during December, then even with supportive background signals for blocking, stronger westerlies aloft could flatten the pattern and favour a more zonal setup significantly reducing the risk of sustained blocking or cold.”

What I was hoping to see was some -NAO to help sort of keep the PV further south. But without that we’ll probably be prone to cutters. Hard to tell at this point. I do think we’ll have chances unlike previous Decembers, but I wouldn’t plan on extended snow pack at least in southern New England.

The PV will eventually migrate more to where it should be in northern Canada and cause a big temperature difference between the Canadian border and southern US.

I think it’s helped with the Pacific side of things, but a lot of this action seems to be focused more in the stratosphere and not a whole lot in the troposphere. Overhyped as usual.

I’ll buy an EV when they start offering the kind of EV I want to buy, right now the EVs marketed here in the US are either heavy, bulky high end luxury cars and trucks and SUVs, or ultra small economy compact cars. Where is the 4 door sedan (like a Camry) with the 250 mile range?

Question: doesn’t it take some time for any SSW affects to show up? Are we getting a PV split? Isn’t the big anomaly(PV) in SE Canada on modeling, a result of the SSW? Or no?

1. No, ext for same run comes out a day later. —————— 2. GEFS 2 days ago: GEFS yesterday: gets to phase 8 five days earlier than any other GEFS as of then: GEFS today: curled back very slightly vs yesterday (E US cold lovers wouldn’t want a curl back into phase 7) but very similar to yesterday/look how different it is vs 2 days ago!

lol at using YouTube as a source for insightful scientific commentary the “soul” of science is the scientific method, saying “science has lost its soul” is pure emotion and has nothing to do with science

All the disrobing to wind reversals and it’s a neutral to +AO lol. Maybe it’s helped with the WPO area. But yeah just keep that cross polar flow coming. I told Ray I do see some signs of zonal flow so I feel like we’ll be sweating bullets at times. Guidance is already warming in the srn US. Let’s hope we average out to be more on the good side of things.

So basically two where EV sales are "out-competing": - Norway (super-cheap and easy electric via their natural setting for almost 100% hydro; sales boosted by subsidies) - Singapore (very wealthy and tiny; less than half the car sales of Iowa; sales boosted by subsidies) EV sales are certainly making progress (though now stalled in many areas), but I think you're overselling it a bit; especially given the subsidies that have been boosting them (thus my quotes around "out-competing"). As a point of US comparison - here's a chart showing the recent sales slump, and stalling of progress towards the CARB-mandated growth in 13 states, with the two key states of CA and NY shown:

Winter sets in here late Weds or early Thurs morning, 20cm/7.9" Thursday alone is agreed from both WUN and TWN. For over a week its shown snow every day after that maybe 5cm or less from the lake. This is about the same time as winter starting last year just before the epic dump. I'll be glad to see this horrendous Nov in the back mirror, I much rather jump into deep winter with lots of snow. Today's dim light is my bane, its not dark enough to be cozy but not bright enough to cheer one up.

SER shifting SE. Modeling has certainly trended to colder outcomes in the East and the SE. .

Agreed. For sure keep expectations in check. We had a lot of blocking last year…didn’t help us at all either.

Funny, that year behaved the opposite of a nino (due to Pinatubo). Normally, you'd get the cool summer in the East preceding the el nino and the warm summer in the East following the el nino. Instead, the summer of 91 was a record warm summer in the East, and the summer of 92 was the cold summer in the East. Of course, Pinatubo resulted in a temporary cooling, which led the snowier winters of 92-93, 93-94, and maybe even 95-96.

I think this is why it’s important to have a threat on the horizon as we approach winter. The above, in various forms, has happened so many times over the past 5+ years. definitely okay to keep expectations for December in check for now. Maybe we can eventually get some NAO blocking later in the winter, but I wouldn’t count on it

Yup, Risk is always a possibility here…but we take our chances. We’ve had great looks a few time over the last couple years…And have come up empty. I’ll gladly entertain what’s coming.

Mount Mansfield off to a great start.

Rain arrives this afternoon and continues through tonight. Additional shower chances but unseasonably warm tomorrow with highs in the 60's. Our well-advertised pattern change to colder starts tomorrow night. This will usher an extended period of for the most part colder than normal weather that should last through at least the first 10 days of December.

Rain arrives this afternoon and continues through tonight. Additional shower chances but unseasonably warm tomorrow with highs in the 60's. Our well-advertised pattern change to colder starts tomorrow night. This will usher an extended period of for the most part colder than normal weather that should last through at least the first 10 days of December.

Is the ext available to compare the same outputs? Maybe instead of doing the loop in phase 7, it does it right on the line between 7/8 then goes back into 8. Yesterdays did the loop in 7

Kind of wish the -NAO didn’t disappear on us. Guidance had been quite bullish on it for December but now it’s basically gone. Don’t need a Davis strait block but a bit of -NAO would help pin that cold a little further south. As long as we keep good cross polar flow though and that PV anomaly in SE Canada stays strong, we’ll have chances, but there’s def gonna be some risk we mix in a cutter.