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What a breathe of fresh air.

I think you worry too much.

That’s awesome. Happy for you guys.

AW super accurate stuff....at least it's cold.

I understood that part…and as I said, I agree. But these ensembles haven’t been anything to brag about either…so I guess that was more my point.

Overall (at least 12z) the not much difference between the Euro/GFS ensembles outside of strength of key features and placement of the main anomaly centers but that is a warm look overall but can't dismiss any wedge potential like Scott said. But I don't really like the way the pattern is configured overall to elicit some big magical changes going through the first week of December. I think we'll certainly see some colder periods, like we've seen this month, but they are brief and more transient. There are multiple things we're fighting 1) Persistent evolution of lower heights and deep troughing across the West 2) A stout subtropical ridge which is flexed into the Southeast as those troughs amplify and dig into the west 3) Even with a -NAO look at times, which helps to bring in that colder air (for a brief period) you always have to watch for connecting heights across the east. Maybe things break down a bit moving through the first week of December but we're going to want to see something in real time (like in 7-10 days) that is in place that will not trigger it...not the it will change because it looks better at D10 ordeal

Ya think? Maybe? I was looking at the back of the sled-behind the seat on the tunnel…that looked more like 4” to me. Gotta be careful because that sleds seat has a slight bulge towards the middle..so that may make it look like more snow there. But nonetheless, it was a substantial event up there.

When I say way different, getting a 500 MB pattern correct versus getting a solution like a low passing just south of you to give you snow, is way different. It is much easier to show a ridge over the East Coast 11 days out on an Ensemble versus getting specific details on an area of low pressure. It’s really apples to oranges. That’s why I mean way different.

Euro has major Canadian cold in fantasy land

When was the last time they were right?.

Yep agree

Are you like 15 years old or something and don't remember past 4 years ago? Central park from 1970-2002 only had 4 winters above 30". Go look up some stats.

I’ve been too busy to ski it today so far but the content coming out of the woods around here is crazy for 11/17. 10” on top of the rain crust and all is good again.

Lots of cold air finally filling up Western Canada. Does not always mean it comes into the SE as we've seen the last few years but for any chance at BN, Canada has to be super cold. Hopefully that ridge can get tamped down and the trough axis moves east with time.

Thread:

my guess is that the pattern becomes better for most after the 5th

Apparently the Lions brings us snow....hell, yeah!!

Garbage pattern over the next week or so starting tomorrow, sure. The 06z and 12z GFS runs lost the cold throughout those two whole runs.

That's awesome. Glad to see the winter starting with a bang for you guys.

Models are now showing the storm Friday to be mainly rain for the urban corridor. Except for the GEM, which still think there will be a heavy, wet snowstorm in Denver.

https://www.tiktok.com/@philadelphiaeagles/video/7573562444489051405?is_from_webapp=1&sender_device=pc

Is it really? I get it it’s an OP run he was referencing, but at 250 hrs out that EPS isn’t all that reliable either. Especially the way it’s been scoring. I agree with you on the above…I mean if we can trust the ensembles at 10 plus days out. That ain’t no given either.

12z/17 cycle in: No thread for the ECMWF first minor barely measurable snow NYC CP 09z/19 and the enthusiastic 11/30 I95 event which should soon be model abandoned- but offers some sort of hope? EC Ensembles are not enthusiastic for measurable snow NYC CP this month but the 12z cycle continues with a potentially wind advisory day sometime between 11/29-12/2. Right now ensembles are saying MAX G around 35 MPH then but for a 300+ hour ensemble, that is noticeably on the high side.

All I can say is this...if you don't see me commenting about the LR pattern, there is a reason for that. LOL. The trend has not been our friend over the weekend. But it is the LR, and things can(and likely will) change again. I still think we go cold, but I don't have a lot of model support nor a lot of confidence in that. Cosgrove has to be feeling good about now - he made a good forecast. No idea if it is right, but it is well supported, and he made that when modeling said otherwise. If forced to make a call for December(and this could change), I would say: Week 1: AN to normal Week 2: transition to normal or cold Week 3: BN Week 4: choose your own adventure book

From 6am… Mike Hayes credit.