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Speaking of Memorial Day, the 18z GFS run has a bit of an ugly look for this Memorial Day weekend with a potential cutoff low and being stuck in the 50s Saturday May 24th: Sunday May 25th:

Overdone again like the last storm generally when some models had 4”+. Was pretty obvious what the outcome would be early this AM with the split-screw setting up. Hopefully the last places with drought get a good benefit. SE NJ still needs a soaker.

I could easily match that but my in-house collectibles would be rip

60F inside here too.

2.03" here over the past 24 hours. 4.14" for the past week.

It's 74 in your house? With no heat? 60 in mine. Not complaining mind you.

80 with a 72 DP at my house so crank up your humidifier. Sent from my Pixel 9 using Tapatalk

74/66 in living room, summery. Folks talk about A/C when it's hot, but a strong humidifier truly brings those tropical Florida vibes when it's not

It waited til later vs yesterday, but it was really coming down a few minutes ago! I’m on garage watch

6.14" since May 1st. Now above PY. for YTD. Last two years were significantly above prior year. Any drought talk should be limited to the Southern Tier. Crazy the difference north of Rt 80 and south.

PNA usually doesn't carry year-to-year.. good point. In fact, it commonly reverses in the NOI area (North Pacific High), off the West coast. That to me says that it usually precedes changing ENSO conditions (+PNA a year before more La Nina, -PNA a year before more El Nino.. slight correlation there, but it's an interesting one)

down to 43

I got my bedroom fan in the window.. it feels great!

I'm just saying, why would a consistently identified index not change year-around if it was CC. Now, I think the long term NAO is biased a little too negative in the averages, but if it was CC, you would see it more universally heading in a direction. It may be a little more decadally cyclical.

Much less El Nino than before.. only 13%. The SOI leads the way again.. It's been positive 8 straight months through April (last year it was Neutral leading the way for a weaker ENSO than originally thought, as per the subsurface and early surface trends).

https://partnerservices.nws.noaa.gov/products/2551fcb706b73e58bc0073c4827a8ca8

It is a strange spring with such variability of precip totals over short distances. You are either in it or not this spring. .

Looks wonderful. Mid-week through Friday: "By mid-week, we shift to a more unsettled weather pattern. Ensemble guidance shows a general consensus with a slow moving southerly stream upper trough moving across the region through Friday. This will bring up a plume of above normal moisture (~120-170% of normal). Upper level support will be limited, but there should be weak ascent and sufficient moisture to support periods of scattered showers Wednesday through Friday. With the increased moisture,dewpoints will rise into the upper 50s/low 60s .

“Can we take these out of the windows so we can just close them? It’s getting cold in here.”

^Good stuff bro. The cold water that we were seeing off of Africa does appear to be at least neutralizing. You may be right about the warming trend in the tropics late Spring. I still think the +NAO over the next 6 days isn't that great, but it appears to be switching in the medium/long range.

It feels colder. You can see your breath for Christ's sake. Maybe it's the heavy rain or fog. Glad I didn't install.

Chilly out with the breeze

This, Its an old wives tale about off hr runs.

1.70”. Finally got an overperformer here. .

You and Wolfie will never learn. "No, there's generally no significant difference in accuracy between the GFS model's runs at different times of day (off-hours vs. peak hours). The GFS runs four times a day (00Z, 06Z, 12Z, and 18Z UTC) and its accuracy doesn't seem to be heavily influenced by the specific time of the run. However, some studies suggest that the 06Z/18Z runs might offer better results for longer-term forecasts (up to 6-7 days) compared to the 00Z/12Z runs, but the difference is small. "