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Paul Roundy talks about the Euro showing the El Niño returning next spring. However, I’d advise caution due to a warm bias that I’ve noticed with the Euro based on many years of Nino 3.4 SST anomaly data: ECMWF clearly moving toward El Niño solutions this spring. Huge Maritime Continent westerly wind event developing, which will move warm water volume from the eastern Indian Ocean to the West Pacific. In the meantime, Pacific trade wind surge will maintain La Niña conditions for a couple more months.

Wind has arrived

now that would stick on the grass until sunrise.

That's why i lol'd

WFSB calling for gusts over 50 MPH for the eastern half of CT. This could be an over performer. I just have a feeling......

you have been here long enough to know it's only the ones that look like shit.

where is leesburg on that map? huh...

At least 5 stations in PA-NYS Apps westward are gusting 40-47KT near 7PM. Not sure how this will translate to our area and my confidence is less than yesterday for the thread headline but it will be a close for iso 50 KT easter LI I think. Power outages 7PM as a baseline. Pennsylvania6,439 New York4,518

We are flipping over here in town in the valley. For all purposes it’s a white rain but it is just dumping precipitation. Feels like 2F away from a true paste bomb. Bet the hill is getting smoked at 1500+.

I thought the off hour runs were no good, lol

Thanks. WXW1 is East Hartford, CT WXW2 is Saranac Lake, NY

Good point lol Well I think we all agree—let’s get another HECS in the hoppah this winter.

I am already ready to move on to the great winter of 26-27. lets hope we get some scraps from this winter

Snowing at Saddleback.

@RyRyB is all set.

I know it is ridiculously out there, but I do like the idea of a follow up wave on an arctic front as any chance for the area. Nothing amped will make anything happen unless it is crazy ideal like the old Veteran's Day storm. I like seeing them show up on long ranges, even if it is all fantasy

Absolutely, I'll give you two forms to use.

I have an older, unhealthier maple right next to my yard that's already bare, and an older maple that's lost about half it's leaves. Same for the cherry tree in my front yard. Probably about 50% of the trees here are bare, with the other half split between various ranges of color turning and leaf loss. If you go towards the northern and western parts of RI it's more bare. Down here by the coast is where trees are still hanging on...

Guess it’s nice to see it being modeled…which is the only take away at 15 days out.

Take that @GaWx

The only way for that to happen I think is through a positive PDO/positive TNH pattern.

Wow…ok. Almost bare out here. Some Oaks still hanging on, but that’s about it.

Winter could lean on the colder side relative to what we're used to (think cold/dry to warm/wet and vice versa) but unless the pacific jet abates it's going to be extremely challenging to get a favorable winter storm track.

big winter underway!