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It might be all we have left to give (or receive) in a few weeks. Ji might beat me to it though

Can you work on fewer 1-5 word quip commentary posts in this thread? TIA!

There's a big difference between seeing a 1-3" of digital snow on those runs at different dates than hoping for a big coastal/significant event. That's not just semantics.

I'll give you my 3" any day, all you have to do is ask me to share. I still love you regardless.

There's a reason why soap operas remain so popular...daytime drama! Lol

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Wait for tonight/tomorrow's miss to get on out of here before taking any solutions for Sun/Mon seriously

I see accumulating snow in our subforum on the Euro, GFS, CMC, ICON, RGEM, NAM, etc and we are heading into peak climo with some nice teleconnections starting to line up in our favor. So yes, I don't think these are desperate times and I think saying so and/or cliff jumping is a silly weenie thing to do at this juncture. There is a panic thread for a reason, no?

EPS is a bit better than the OP….which isn’t a high bar obviously…but I’d rather that than the other way around. 1-2” for far SE areas it looks like while the OP was a complete whiff even for the cape.

That’s a crazy 24hr qpf mean for that for out.

Cue the euro burying the energy SW.

Lets fire up a bitching and whining thread, Oh wait, We already have 4 others.

Look at euro snow output through day 12 for some comedic relief

The 12Z Euro was good for the E Carolinas and extra good for SE GA. Of course I’d love for it to verify similarly in this area, but I’m still leaning to the 1/28-9/14 type of NW model trend like the 12Z GFS did due to similar indices to take most or all of it away. We’ll see as every case is somewhat unique:

Dont have latest eps, but really like what it was hinting at 0z for after the 27th

For once can something work out. Is 3-6” that much to ask. FFS.

I guess in a bright note (for those who like cold) the January thaw looks like it ends today, CPK will be approx 40 tomorrow.

Not best company but 12z CMC also has similar evolution. This threat is legit.

I do like the AIs being more bullish on this. They wanted almost nothing to do with 1/15 which was kind of a red flag. I wouldn’t forecast solely on AI models, but if they are showing more support then that always helps.

Is it though? I mean has the GFS been terrible or no? I'd argue that's a fact--we hoped it was onto something for tomorrow but it was wrong then too, lol

UK was terrible. EURO was not great but it was mostly due to the energy being less consolidated than a bad trend with regards to placement, etc. think as someone else stated we’ve reached the stage of models jumping around. We’re still 4 days out our storms are never nailed down at this range. Watch those two closely we don’t want to separate into GFS vs the world

Gefs impressive thru 324hrs

the AIFS-EPS is wetter, so that's nice. vort digs more

I mean unfortunately he’s probably not wrong. We got about 500” digital snow from gfs and basically nothing to show for it. Maybe it can find a nut like a blind squirrel for once but it’s rough.

Desperate times call for desperate measures, no? Ji just declared winter over...again? We've been can kicking for how many weeks now? It would be fair to say its hard to be optimistic as this point since we've been in the Nina pattern of warm/wet to cold/dry as many years past have given us. Cold has been around this year, not almost no presence of a S/S. Trusting the GFS as poorly as it's performed this year (and even in past years when it had some successes) is a difficult proposition when its the only model showing what we need. That is more of a fact than an assumption or a statement out of left field.