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Yea, I'm going to be against a -NAO at this juncture, but will see once I do my polar domain research and you get your index calculation in.

My area was a local min....the Worcester hills and Boston area down to the south short did much better. i was only likw 10-15" above average...pretty blah. Similar to 2013-2014 in that regard....those are my two most overrated winters...they both lack signature events.

Slight chill in the air but otherwise gorgeous morning driving into work.

44 this A.M. in Westfield, couldn't deny the hoodie this morning again, fantastically fall like

I’ll take that euro run…just keep the heaviest axis south of here. 1” will feel like Stein compared to recent weekends. Goofus is north of the St Lawrence. Best case for all. CMC splits the difference and floods NNE.

Hopefully October

Which is 99% of the time it seems for us.

44 this morning.

51 when I left the house. Beautiful morning.

42.4F. Last 40s for a bit?

Euro south again but gfs north. Still hoping it stays north.

42 degrees this morning with the high projected at 83 degrees. The deer come through early this morning, probably after a night of raiding people’s gardens.

So my May monthly rain total ended up being.... 12.99" One one hundredth of an inch short of 13.

If it’s gonna rain let it pour and let the dams break where they may..of course, as long as everyone is staying safe

it depends on how tropical season sets up

Ray you must have done really well in 1993-94 too.

January 2016 was like February 1983 on steroids. The added moisture with that storm was definitely CC induced, there was a research paper on it. 30.7 inches of snow with 3.00 inches of liquid equivalent at JFK

So we have a few that good winters for both of us. I only listed what I consider A winters. A few of the other ones you listed were B+ here, among them 2004-05, 2008-09 and 2000-01. 2003-04 also fits into that group.

48/40.

Negative PNA After the lowest daily PNA since 2017, 8 years, in May, the PNA is forecasted to fall below -1 again June would be the 4th consecutive month with negative PNA I rolled forward the March-April-May PNA and April-May-June PNA to the following Winter, to see if it leads anything. Surprisingly, there is no PNA signal the following Winter.. correlation is near 0 in the North Pacific. So to say that this Spring/early Summer PNA is going to lead the Winter is not completely right. There is, however, a NAO signal. Negative PNA March-June puts the probability at about 56-57% that the Winter NAO will be negative [correlation of below maps is opposite] US temps for the following Winter are neutral, for the -PNA rolled forward. About the best you can hope for given the occurrence.

Just another update on contest ... my first stab at May scoring (mid-May) was horrendously bad so if you looked in then to May 31st, and saw those numbers and figured, well, the results will be sort of like that, nope, they were much different (it was much colder in the east and ORD, DEN than projected by me at the time) ... ... those scores are back before some chat about snowfall contest, and the snowfall contest results are back further also. I think DEN is clear of snow risks by now although it could always happen there in June. ... Annual updates are also posted just before this month's forecast posts begin. I will be adding an update on four seasons scoring later (will edit into annual scoring post). I will wait and see who has entered seasonal max by June 7th (edit your posts or re-post as you wish, I have already collected June forecasts). Then I will send messages to any non-entrants who may not be aware there is a call for forecasts. Final note, I have a 2025 N Atlantic hurricane season forecast contest running in the tropical section, some of you have entered already, deadline is June 7th (06z).

__ Table of forecasts for June 2025 __ a separate table will be created for seasonal max ... enter by June 10th FORECASTER _________________ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA Roger Smith __________________ +3.0 _+3.0 _+3.0 ___ +3.0 _+3.0 _+3.0 ___+1.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 RJay __________________________ +2.5 _+2.5 _+2.5 ___ +2.5 _+1.5 _ +2.0 ___+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 hudsonvalley21 _______________ +2.4 _+2.4 _+2.0 ___ +1.4 _+1.2 _ +1.0 ___+0.7 _+2.5 _+0.2 wxallannj _____________________+2.2 _+2.3 _+2.6 ___ +0.5 _ +2.1 _ +1.3 ___+0.7 _+1.8 _+0.7 BKViking _____________________ +2.1 _ +2.2 _ +2.1 ___ +1.9 _ +0.3 _+0.5 ___+1.8 _ +1.0 _+1.9 Tom __________________________ +1.8 _ +1.6 _ +1.7 ____ +1.1 __+1.7 __+0.9___+0.5 _+2.1 _+0.8 ___ Consensus ________________+1.8 _ +2.0 _ +2.1 ___ +1.3 _ +1.1 __ +1.0 ___+0.7 _+1.4 _+1.0 so_whats_happening _________ +1.7 _ +1.6 _ +2.1 ___ +1.4 __+1.1 _ +1.0 ___ +2.1 _+1.3 _+2.1 DonSutherland1 _______________+1.6 _+2.2 _+2.3 ___ +2.6 _+0.2 _+0.8 ___+0.4 _+1.3 _+0.5 Stormchaserchuck1 __________ +1.6 _ +1.8 _ +2.0 ___ +0.8 _+0.6 _+0.7 ___+2.5_+2.7 _+1.0 Scotty Lightning _____________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ____+0.5 _+1.0 _ +1.5 ___ +0.5 _+2.0_ +0.5 wxdude64 ____________________+0.8 _ +1.2 _ +1.4 ___ +0.4 _+0.8 _+0.5___-0.4 _+0.4 _+0.9 ___ Normal ____________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 _ 0.0 _ 0.0 RodneyS ______________________ -0.5 _ +1.1 _ +1.0 ____ -1.8 _ -0.7 _ +1.2 ___ +0.1 _+0.1 _ +1.1 _________________ Persistence (May 2025) _______-0.2 _-0.9 _+0.8 ___ -2.6 _ +0.3 _ +3.2 __ +0.3 _+1.4 _-0.5 ======================================== Highest and lowest forecasts are color coded. Normal has low forecast for NYC, BOS, IAH, PHX and SEA.

Final tallies are in for Apr-May SLP pattern of most active Atlantic Hurricane seasons since 1995: VS ACTUAL Tell me what you think, I think it's close to opposite I think with this the median we can expect this season is 13-14 Named Storms.. of course there are many other factors.