All Activity

Actually not too bad out, just warm humid air up and over the warm front

2009 was the last summer at a warm spot like Newark which averaged under 74°. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Coolest Summers Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1940 71.0 0 2 1946 71.7 0 3 1945 72.4 0 4 1941 72.5 0 5 1936 72.7 0 6 1950 72.8 0 - 1935 72.8 0 - 1933 72.8 0 - 1932 72.8 0 7 1982 72.9 0 - 1956 72.9 0 - 1947 72.9 0 - 1942 72.9 0 8 1962 73.0 0 - 1958 73.0 0 - 1934 73.0 0 9 2000 73.1 0 10 1967 73.2 0 - 1954 73.2 0 - 1951 73.2 0 - 1931 73.2 0 11 2009 73.5 0 12 1996 73.6 0 - 1948 73.6 0 13 1985 73.7 0 - 1964 73.7 0 14 1997 73.8 0 15 2004 73.9 0 - 1965 73.9 0 - 1938 73.9 0

Station right around the corner from my house reporting just shy of 3" between 6 am and 7:30 this morning. Rest of area seems to be 1 to 1.5 in that time frame. https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KVTNORWI10 First good drink in 3 weeks.

I dont know the area there well enough but 110 in NJ would support the higher readings. it was 104 in Newark that day NYC 106 / 102 those days.

TO ALL BEARISH POSTERS AND WX METS: The MDR has been rapidly warming during the last two weeks! June 25: 26.76C (0.00C anomaly) July 10: 27.33C (0.38C anomaly) It's currently getting close to the +0.60C value we had in 2020 (YES, the spam year) at this time of the year. Give it another two weeks of similar warming, wed be around the same level as 2005 (one of my analogs along with 2005, 2017, 1996, 2021).

My area (Staten Island) usually does pretty good with convection, in fact my July avg rainfall is over 5 inches. But not this year with this more or less dry pattern since September.

not today.... .SYNOPSIS... A stationary frontal boundary across the region through tonight eventually shifts farther south heading into the start of the weekend. High pressure builds east of the waters for the latter half of this weekend before weakening early next week.

When is this stationary front supposed to finally move out of the way? Temps are down, but dew points are thru the roof.

You wanted it humid. Humid it will be.

Since YOU don't agree with an official temp, then it HAS to be wrong. Get off your high horse. Your name gives away your extreme bias. BTW, I hear those neighboring sites had foliage problems, so that explains it

Category5Kaiju has great points He should visit here

L to EPS Caribbean shear

I wonder how much cloud cover impacts that? I'd think that more cloud cover would reduce the UHI effect and maybe that helps normalize DC temps? Just a guess though.

That’s a real dirty sanchez.

The posters/forecasters I favor the heaviest have neither a bullish nor a bearish bias from my perspective.

I understand that, but that doesn't explain why the Martinsburg temperatures are consistently 5F warmer than surrounding towns in that era, including on the date it "hit" a state record of 112F. On the same date, it was 103F in Hagerstown (25-minute drive) and 105F in Kearnesyville (10-ish minute drive) with no appreciable elevation difference.

I know it’s the flight. But considering your start I didn’t expect your BAC to be much below 0.15 during the trip.

What? It never gets above 90F on Mount Chesco!

That was the dust bowl heat setting records in many states https://www.weather.gov/ilx/july1936heat https://www.weather.gov/arx/heat_jul36 https://arcfieldweather.com/blog/2023/7/13/715-am-the-deadly-heat-wave-of-july-1936-in-the-middle-of-one-of-the-hottest-summers-on-record-across-the-nation

May of 96 had that record heat in May 99 in EWR, even in the cooler summers there may be spikes of heat.

Just wanted to point out your “max 90 or above (since April 1)” is wrong. It says 1, but you’ve had 3.

Summary of latest model progs for Nino 3.4: coolest month (these don’t take into account RONI type of adjustments downward) BoM (Australian): -0.2 (in August)(too warm overall in prior 2 years; last July was slightly too warm with -0.17 for OND vs actual of ~-0.4) Euro: ~-0.2 (almost always has been too warm…July forecast last year was only down to -0.11 for NDJ vs actual of ~-0.5) JMA: ~-0.9 (Nov)(did well 2 years ago but too cool last year as July forecast had -0.87 for OND vs actual of ~-0.4) MetFrance: ~-0.6 (Dec)(July outlook too warm 2 years ago but did fairly well last year with it actually slightly too cool with -0.61 OND vs actual of ~-0.4) CFS: -0.5 (Nov)(last July much too cold with -1.32 for OND!) UKMET: -0.76 (Oct) (this is from June as I don’t see July outlook yet)(last July much too cool with -0.95 in OND) ———— So, my latest guess based on last year’s errors and current forecasts (all listed above) is for ONI low point this fall/winter of -0.4. That would likely mean RONI low of -0.6 to -0.9.

Redeveloping again.

You just know that user @FPizz is going to chime in with a poo emoji, and there it is! I post a very reasonable critique of a clearly bogus reading, and that's the response. I see him typing something else up, wonder what it could be? It's like an IQ test. Anyone with any knowledge of meteorology/weather knows such variance is implausible/impossible, so you have to either willfully pretend its plausible despite the physical impossibility or, well you know...