All Activity

Might clean house...only up in the air in that scenario is Albernaz. Will depend on new GM unless Rubinstein wants him to stay, I suppose. What I have trouble believing is that Rubenstein does nothing. You can't publicly complain about being in last place and do nothing. And there is only one thing to do: fire Elias, clean house in the FO. He himself said that increasing payroll is not the end-all and there is more to successful ownership than that. I hope he takes what he learned from other top sports owners for his book, and applies to this organization.

Cold pool orographic showers led to rainbows as they moved through.

Long range 12z GFS was brutal for you all...

Yes, "the door swings both ways" as I always say. Sure, when you have high-end wx event that has big impacts, that is going to be front and center. However, there is flip side, when you get atypically inactive or quiet periods, or a pattern/cycles that suppresses extreme wx events. Heck, we've seen that over the decades for East Coast snowstorms, much to the dismay of snow weenies! I get it, out of sight, out of mind, and that does not sell, but that does not mean it is not important or should be ignored from scientific or meteorological POV. The reporting bias of wx from the MSM and social media is obvious. and that skews perception. What suppresses TC activity, or any stormy wx, is just as important as what favors it. There should be more study on this. TC are more tenuous as to existing than many think. They require very specific conditions to develop and maintain. and SSTs alone do not cut it (far too much emphasis on those IMHO). What matters most is in the atmosphere, not the ocean. Wind shear and TPW are paramount. You can have all the warm water in the world, but if the atmosphere does not cooperate, you get nothing or TCs that have trouble getting intense. This Atlantic season so far displays it more obvious than I think any other recently. High shear across the MDR?, no dice. And what manages to develop, struggles big time and does not last long. And look at Edouard. Over 31 C SSTs, and it still took its time developing b/c of a lot of dry air present and minor shear. Close to landfall, it got closer to the center of a 250 mb high pressure, and only *then* did it make its move, so to speak. The shear decreased to near zero, and less shear stopped the entrainment of dry air into the core. Edouard being so small, it makes a TC more vulnerable to even small environmental changes, and drier synoptic environment typically means TCs will be smaller overall. So you see how it is all tied together. You can't treat any wx parameter in a vacuum. The ocean and the atmosphere are coupled.

This you @Jonger?

Not gonna bother changing the snow blower's oil this fall.

The AMO is SO important. People really do forget how the Atlantic can vary for decades at a time! Doesn’t mean we can’t get a big event during a “lull” but of all the areas where you really need to care about the longer historical record, tropical is it. I’ll also just note, this is an extremely impressive season so far—it just happens to be on the other side of the activity spectrum. To have this little ACE, this deep into the general climatological peak in the Atlantic, it’s really something to behold.

I believe it might have been confirmed this afternoon.

Ginger in 1971 is one of the oddest TC tracks and second-long lasting TC in the Atlantic on record. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ginger The "Yankee" hurricane in 1935 started near Bermuda and ended up hitting MIA from the ENE! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1935_Yankee_hurricane For the oddest track globally?, Typhoon Wayne in the NW Pacific in 1986 takes the cake here! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Wayne_(1986)

Nailed this one tonight:

Indiana, PA just surpassed us in yearly rain tallies. We are at 38.40. They are now 38.76. By year's end many places in the East and south will be several feet over us, while south central Texas will be getting wall to wall sunshine and highs in the 80s, even in December. We'll see a few sprinkles maybe some drizzle. We have been leading most places most of the year so far. Those days are OVER. It's not hard to understand. We are too far west for this Record El Nino. So we will be bone dry and warm. The Nino is so east-based it is setting records. The Plume is also way too far east for us. Places like Virginia, and the DMV areas appear to be right in the crosshairs. These communities have been getting smashed by repeated instances of heavy rain since at least early August. Look out once that soil gets saturated. Rain will keep right on. What else is new.

Never has there been a -PDO AT the end of August in a strong NinoWhile analogs if you find one in which i doubt you will at least ATM look like 1982 not 1997 and especially 2015.

Hit 97 here, 96 at MLI. More mid 90s tomorrow but back in the 80s for Sun/Mon before more 90s next week.

The CONUS has no major hurricane landfalls Nov 2005 to July 2017, that 11.5 year gap is the longest on record going back to 1851. New England or LI has not had a hurricane landfall since 1991, it's longest such gap period on record. Contrast this to 5 from 1938-1960. During the Atlantic inactive period 1970-1994, there were 3 hurricane landfalls in this same region, but 1995-2025 is the most active Atlantic period on record, and none here! So you see it works in bursts and in non-even/linear ways, and this is true worldwide w/ many wx phenomena. This why you can not let short-term cycles/trends (say 30 year or less) or "recency bias" influence scientific objectivity. Human quirks and fallacies in perception/behavior are an issue here as to reality (and the MSM takes full advantage of this, unfortunately). Geologically, the atmosphere cycles/patterns work on much longer time scales. What is a "long time" to people (say 10-20 years) is not a long time geologically! In the case of Atlantic TC cycles, they work on a 25-50 cycle from the AMO phase. This is clearly evident in the data going back to the mid-19tn century. And of all the TC basins in the world, the Atlantic is the most variable overall.

You should post that over in the main Enso thread. You're sure to make lots of friends.

lmao at that 00z 4knam.

UVA Sunset after a convective complex rolled through.

EF-2 tracking 3.5 miles. 1 man was injured trying to protect this newborn from a falling tree, but fortunately no fatalities.

Grand total of 0.01” here

Like, I was only half speaking in jest when I said winter cancel. Looking forward to that February golf.

A spectacular cell started falling apart on its way to me, as usual. Still managed 0.42" but places not far north have 1.5"+. Hopefully some more tomorrow.

Looks fake but I hate that we are now in a timeline we can’t tell

It has been confirmed