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Yeah, came back north quick. SBN jumped from 59/54 to 68/60 in an hour.

Wading River, LI. B+ seems right. Nothing wrong with that, just not quite top tier for snowfall or cold.

But it wasn't up against as hostile conditions...March was cold.

I wrote in this year's piece about how analogs are not mean to be interpreted as precise, absolute reenactments, but rather cast of actors that each have a cameo throughout the course of a film .....some of my big ones have showed up....2014 (+TNH), 2022 (+TNH), Latter January big dog, 2000, early season reversal, 2018, late season SSW followed by record warmth.

Kinda interesting how areas further east in IN/MI/OH might have a higher tornado chance than expected later because of where the front is

It was packed tight from the wind and weight. Up here i have mud, hoping for freezing nights soon.

Record heat prevailed across parts of the region. Records were set at Central Park, LaGuardia Airport, and New York. Central Park achieved New York City's earliest-season 80° reading. Tomorrow will be another springlike day in much of the region. Temperatures will generally top out in the 60s. Some 70s are possible in the warmer spots, especially in interior New Jersey. Long Island and coastal sections could be noticeably cooler than interior sections on a number of days on account of a chilly onshore flow. Afterward, it will turn cooler but not especially cold through the weekend. A shot of much cooler air could arrive early next week. However, with the AO likely to remain generally positive, the cool period likely won't be as prolonged as had been the case during this past winter's cold regimes. There may be a short window of opportunity for some snow, but snow is not assured. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +19.86 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.319 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 61% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.0° (1.2° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

SPC might was well pull the trigger now Mesoscale Discussion 0191 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026 Areas affected...portions of eastern Iowa into northern Illinois and southwestern lower Michigan. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 102153Z - 102330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Scattered elevated supercells and bowing segments appear likely this afternoon/evening north of the east-west warm front. A risk for significant hail and damaging gusts is possible. A WW is likely needed shortly. DISCUSSION...As of 2145 UTC, mesoanalysis and radar observations showed an east-west oriented warm front stretching from eastern IA, across northern IL into southern lower MI. South of the front, temperatures in the 70s and 80s F amid mid to upper 60s F surface dewpoints are supporting moderate to large buoyancy of 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Strong destabilization is also ongoing in an elevated manner along and north of the boundary with 1500-2500 J/kg of MUCAPE despite cooler surface temperatures. Strong mid-level flow is overspreading the boundary supporting deep veering wind profiles supportive of organized severe storms. Weak surface convergence southeast of the front has ignited several supercells across northern IL this afternoon. As storms cross out of the Tornado Watch and the front, they will become elevated. With robust buoyancy and deep-layer shear greater than 50 kt, they are likely to remain intense and capable of large to very large hail. Recent CAM guidance and surface convergence near a surface low in IA/MO suggest numerous storms will develop within the elevated regime over the next few hours. With time, these initial supercells are likely to grow upscale into elevated bows or clusters with a continued hail threat and possibly damaging winds associated with strong gravity waves propagating along the top of the stable surface layer. Given the increasing severe threat, a new WW is likely needed for eastern IA into northern IL and portions of western lower MI. ..Lyons/Hart.. 03/10/2026

That’s funny because I’m surprised how quickly I lost this pack. And it had some moisture in it too. But 2015 in my opinion was the most resilient, that thing wouldn’t budge for whatever reason.

Impressive your call this year.

I posted this in the storm obs thread, but I will repost it here. The beginning of the Feb 22 Storm that produced 10" here. Massive parachutes falling for the first few hours after the changeover.

81 was the high here.

ENE

Getting the pattern right is hard enough, but also timing it to fit the sequence correctly within these 30 day increments that the calendar is divided into? Good luck-

Which way this thing heading

wait til we hit low 70's next winter in the el nino that's coming; better keep this past winter in mind, cause we are almost sure to get a ratter next year with warmth.

So right order just pushed up, maybe an April snow.

Good winter here in southeast MI. Couldve used a bigger storm, but solid cold and snowcover paired with frequent snowfall from late November thru mid Feb made it quite enjoyable for the winter enthusiast. Snow has always been a big part of the economy for northern MI and im sure northern New England too. What happened this winter out west sucks. My brother has heard it firsthand from friends in Denver. But its not like any of us control the weather. If i could wave a magic wand and bury the west i would. But im not going to feel guilty that it was a good winter in the lakes and northeast. Hopefully next year is better for you guys.

I swear my 2018 analog is just running 2-3 weeks behind...Feb 12, 2018 zonal wind reversal/PV split....March 4, 2026 reversal/PV split....Feb 21-22, 2018 record heat-bomb.....March 9-10, 2026 record heat-bomb. Seasonable cold and stormy pattern will follow, but unfortunately the details don't look to work out as favorably as they did that year....those are the breaks....snowfall is pretty similar, though, as January and February were snowier that year. Unfortunately, that 2-3 weeks will ruin our closing act of snowfall.

Yeah this heat wave is impressive. What's going to be really impressive are going to be the 24 hour temp changes and next week even colder with the cold air.

Looking better. I'll take it.

Just keeps looking better and better on radar. Matter of time before we got a beast otg

The warmth yesterday and today was very impressive here (70s) as will be the cold early next week. Beyond that, I expect pretty mundane spring weather here in the Lakes for a while. Not warm and not cold.

High of 85, low of 54. Still no AC. House cools off really nice at night with the ceiling fans on. One more warm day to go.