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67 / 59 : some clouds and showers as the warm front and ridge builds around Tennessee. Warm 72 hours / warmer inland. Have to watch the weekend and early next week for cutoff and / or stalled front which could lead to a cloudy / rainy cool 9/20 - 9/23. Beyond there overall near normal.

Exactly what I have been saying to my local weather group chat for Southeast MI. Theres not going to be snow on the ground almost all winter like last year, but the seasonal total is still wide up in the air. I do feel it will be subpar in true strong Nino fashion, but not crazy bad. We rely more on frequent snowfall than a big storm. We are not going to get a 2-3' noreaster (our big storms are 6-12") so its going to be how many snowy periods will there be? Warm, wet Dec followed by cold, dry Jan/Feb is usually a worry for some of the strong Ninos past (57-58, 65-66) but Im not as worried about super dry this time. The east coast should love the "potential" with the wet signal on all models.

You know ...this reminds me ... I have noted recurring tendency during late autumns and early/mid winters of the last decade. It takes place spanning the N arc of the Pacific latitudes ... It appears the lower rim of the strata vortex in that area is being "bulged" skyward from below. Among other consequences...this has given faux impressions of SSWs. It's hard to blame anyone for assuming so when it is collocated in timing with SSW climo anyway. And so, this was perfect for social media moguls out there to pounce and sound brilliantly insightful for their adoring social media followers. But they were/are wrong. That's not what's taken place. This is evidenced by the fact that post those there were not very clear downward propagation of thermal masses noted ( tho admittedly looking quite similar to an SSW thermal intrusion). However the wave breaks were weak. The reversal were not sustained ... as it were, the situations mimicked ( "tricked" may be more apropos) many into the SSW circle jerk. And the AO's didn't go through the correlated negative phase..etc. Last year there was a weak SSW later in the year, but aspects noted above were also more evidenced - all taking place after the earlier season bulging thing. So what was it then? It's speculative ... but certainly plausible. What I believe what's been taking place is that the troposphere all over the planet is beginning to "swell" for lack of better word. And yes ... it may chap ass but too bad. Stop eating denial tacos and that'll go away ... it's CC that's doing it. For the newbs ... Warmth = increasing volume. That's nature 101. And it's also why there is any weather on the planet. If one doesn't get that or understand it...strongly recommend two recourses: Learn it, or, don't engage in this hobby. PV=NrT Pressure * Volume = #mol * gas constant for free mixed air * Temperature. Because mass is never lost or destroyed, "#mol" can be set to 1. The gas constant is also a persistent factor in all volumes/homogeneity so.. toss that. That leaves a rather simplified variant of PV= T in the ongoing "machinery" When CC is empirically measured in both the air, the ocean, and most importantly, the couple atmospheric ocean holistic system, that means that the other side of this equation, the P and/or V necessarily has to also rise. There are a lot of refereed and adjudicated material/papers out there related to "The troposphere is expanding due to anthropogenic climate change" ( https://bulletin.cmos.ca/the-troposphere-is-expanding-due-to-anthropogenic-climate-change/) just to mention one in a large compendium I suggest the N. Pac bulging tropopausal anomaly of the late autumns and early winters is perhaps a new seasonal behavior associated with the expanded troposphere, but to be mistaken as an Sudden Stratospheric Warm intrusion. As an after thought ...it's perhaps a geometric identity - creating usage. The SSW come into the sidewall of the stratospheric vortex cylinder. The bulging stuff is elevating from beneath, but since the measuring is fixed to the altitude, the warmth may be falsely associated.

I love that. I need a hammock, I have so many nice trees in my backyard. But it needs to be strong, Im 6'5" and a big guy lol.

While not calling for a September hurricane shutout at this point the lack of a hurricane for the 2026 season could easily go on for another week. Pretty amazing honestly. We almost made it with Edouard. A track a little further offshore before landfall would have easily done it. It was very close but no cigar.

Our beautiful autumnal weather continues with temperatures warming to a few degrees above normal both today and tomorrow with Highs not far from 80 degrees. We then start a sharp cooling trend over the weekend and into the new work week with temperatures by next week according to the ChescoWx forecast only in the low to mid 60's by the start of next week. The NWS forecast has those days about 10 degrees warmer – let’s see who is closer. Rain chances ramp up by late Saturday night into Sunday and Monday.

Our beautiful autumnal weather continues with temperatures warming to a few degrees above normal both today and tomorrow with Highs not far from 80 degrees. We then start a sharp cooling trend over the weekend and into the new work week with temperatures by next week according to the ChescoWx forecast only in the low to mid 60's by the start of next week. The NWS forecast has those days about 10 degrees warmer – let’s see who is closer. Rain chances ramp up by late Saturday night into Sunday and Monday.

Weathernerds has it for tropical https://weathernerds.org/models/wnv3.html

I think you both were

It's more +NAO....AO is pretty much a push, but I would hedge towards subtle negative given my composite. I think we will def. have some -NAO periods....I just don't think it will be a mean DJFM -NAO. I also don't expect a SSW....it will be triggered more by strat reflection, etc...

EPS AI looks devastating

Excuse you… poor decisions get you elected in today’s world.

Also, is today the torch?

Certainly hope so so I don’t have to turn on the heat.

Thank goodness for the Appalachians moderating the air mass. For once

It’ll be fun when AI starts altering the weather or hacking weather station data to match its forecast output.

Raleigh and Seattle have today's nicest weather in the Nation

Looks frigid. Bundle up in the precinct

The new Google model weathernext3 is out on some vendor pages like stormvista. Supposedly better than euro ai. Will be interesting to see how that works in the fall and winter.

How about cool and wetish/rainy for next week?

DT ** ALERT ** 1ST POSSIBLE Coastal LOW of the Season SEPT 23-25 then 1st SERIOUS Cold air Blast SEPT 26-28

DT ** ALERT ** 1ST POSSIBLE Coastal LOW of the Season SEPT 23-25 then 1st SERIOUS Cold air Blast SEPT 26-28