All Activity

I'm ok with that... Overall a great early fall Goldilocks pattern; not too warm; not too cold, not too wet and not too dry... Certainly not extreme... A little boring for sure but with the likelihood of an active East Coast winter, I'm ok with boring right now...

NFL pick em pool is up in the sports thread! Get your picks in

@donsutherland1 I was playing around with Astra to see how well it could do to create high-resolution maps of past temperature data. I'd say these weren't too bad. I tested it on this past July and the "hottest month ever" (registered trademark) of July 1936. This was using unadjusted data with bias correction.

I've been watering twice a day for the past 3 days, after overseeding on Monday morning. This dryness is killing my soul

Agree...

Blowtorch

What've you got for the individual months DJF?

That's a Vega that's not an all out rust bucket on the right. Amazing...

You are 100% right as it pertains to the seasonal mean, but I think the trick is to try and focus on when the pattern may stray from said mean. I think that is where the more skilled forecasters have a chance to distinguish themselves. Same thing as if it we have a fall of 2009 type regime....that was a an obvious snow-season for the mid atl leading in, but when are the thaws??

@ORH_wxman @CoastalWx Check this site out....nice site for a quick and easy guide on pattern diagnostics. Nothing new to us, but it helps to illustrate when you feel like a pattern is good, bad or ugly.

Lawns still lush and green here-I think we'd need another week before anything needs water

Cool site...def. adding this to my arsenal. Thanks.

No. They need to take their steroids in order to win games!

many people are calling this the easiest long range forecast of all time

warm and rainy

The Netflix movie God of the Woods is currently filming in Goshen at the old courthouse. Pretty cool to see how much goes into filming likely one scene, along with the cars and extras from the era of the movie, 1975.

I was never wishing for a lower RONI because given how warm the Pacific basin is, I think that could predispose the hemisphere to residual MC influence in the mid latitudes, as we are still seeing signs of those competing forces despite the magnitude of El Nino.

where is that exactly? is it near Lake America? or in the great state of New America?

that's because it's east of 3.4 as bluewave just showed us. be careful what you wish for <3

Absolutely.

Hi everyone, Getting ready late fall and winter ready. I know it’s early but let’s hope for a good season. Whether you like it cold and snow or warm and wet. I believe all of you know my choice!

The odds of temps this winter averaging AN are high. Nothing is for certain in wx, so I wouldn't say it's a guarantee, but as close to one as you can probably get all things considered. December will likely suck for snow short of a fluke and, relative to average, will probably be the warmest. Beyond that, anything is possible and I find it notable the fact we have yet to see a toaster oven from any of the seasonals as a positive. If anyone wants to take a position that it's a strong Niño so the glass is cracked and only a few drops are left in it when comes to snow chances, that's up to them. But until I see reasonable consensus among seasonal guidance that a 96/97 or 23/24 is a legit possibility, as opposed to seasonal guidance ain't good enough to see that or some variation of that opinion, I'll remain positive in light of the potential a strong Niño gives for snow in the Mid Atlantic.

I received a welcome 2.04" overnight.

The ECMWF has been the closest but even it’s behind the curve on how east based this has become. The summer WWB pattern was stronger than 1997. So we have the historic warm pool now east of the Dateline.