All Activity

A little over 3” of pure fluff at home during the day today, bringing my total to 9.6”. Would say the office had a good foot by the time I left…it was dumping most of the morning and early afternoon.

Don’t need a cold winter to have a big storm. Just need the precip to line up when it is cold. Obviously look at 2016. Pretty much a crap winter but we got the blizzard so that was all that mattered.

I think we should check this:

Ok dude don’t take this the wrong way because everything you said is a very valid concern. I’m not necessarily disagreeing. But if a cold enso is dry. And a warm enso is too warm. WTF do you think we should be rooting for to get an actual snowy winter next year. And by snowy I don’t mean we fight and eek and some lucky locations end up 3” above average. I mean an actually snowy fucking winter where the whole area ends up 125%+ snowfall. You know like used to happen once in a while. Sorry vent over. But ya. I see your valid concerns but what the hell are we even rooting for? We used to get snowy winters in a -PDO once in a while. It’s not supposed to be impossible.

I'm pretty sure it's actually closer (both OP and EPS) at 18Z, but either way it still misses.

That's him!

46

It is hysterical. Happens often.

I think he’s 47.. so 58? Another few years till retirement!

I liked it better when App was in the FCS division.

11 years

Did you bite?

There’s the chuck we love

We’re not going to get shut out. I was probably too optimistic. I leaned into the “we’re due” index too much. Apparently we’re still cursed. But we’re not going a whole winter without at least one decent snowstorm with the predominant winter pattern being this good. Not perfect but this years underlying features look nothing like the really bad snowless winters.

And in DC, it's not as good as I thought, at least on the N side of the Beltway. The downslope effect from the high terrain not far to the W stiffs me in Silver Spring a lot. Just E blows up big time on the Chesapeake dew point front/breeze. Seems like about 20 mi N and 20 mi S of me do well more often. Just location I guess. The thing is I am at 390 ft elevation, so not total downslope. Nevertheless, I have had some doozies and several supercells pass right over me. Had LTG hit the building and for the first time two years ago I actually heard arcing ZZZTTTT!!! (not click-pops, much louder and distinct) from a strike about 100 ft away. And thunder acoustics unlike anything I had heard before a couple of times.

I guess the mets just go with the one they think is right most of the time. Or maybe just meet somewhere in the middle. But it is crazy how far apart they are less than 72 hours out. It just goes to show how hard it is to predict what will happen when there is a threat of winter weather here

I'm a little scared that if we do an El Nino next year it will be warm. These last 2 cold Winters, 24-25 and 25-26, are not because of a -NAO decadal, or +PDO decadal. They are negative AAM tendency propagating toward the Pole. Sometimes that happens in La Nina's, especially well into a decadal state of many events. Recent El Nino's have shown a tendency to warm SE Canada, as 7/8 (after this year 7/9) recent +WPO Winter's comes into effect. If we were well into the cold-phase NAO I would feel better, but we are not, and there is a +0-4 year lag after a Solar Max for more +NAO conditions. -PDO, if that holds, -PDO and El Nino is also a warm composite.

Was the one high risk…feels like forever now but maybe 2019? People were going insane because the HRRR was going bonkers with these warm sector supercells and I think a high risk was issued and virtually nothing happened. I think after this it became apparent the HRRR had a bias for supercells south of the warm front well away from any forcing

Maybe like 13 years or so?

Very interesting. Recon is going to be flown out tomorrow afternoon and late tomorrow night to collect extra data to be fed into models probably due to the large disagreement between the King and others: this would affect the 0Z and 12Z runs of 1/17:

I think its definitely low probability for warning snows even for eastern areas, but there's truth in that nobody really has a great feel for this system. I think even the most seasoned mets are looking at the trough position and know it's quite good....but the shortwave interference is mucking it up...however, it's not always fatal to a storm when you have shortwave interference....esp if other factors are good enough to overcome it like a massive ridge out west and/or very strong vort energy near base trough. So we're all kind of waiting to see if the negative variable can be overcome by the positive ones.

Thats awesome. I'd rather have the EPS show that rather than the GEFS

Fully prepared for white rain Saturday and a whiff Sunday night. This is getting out of control stupid.

Meh I used to kick my feet up on the desk and fall asleep and fantasize