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seems like we’ve trended the TPV more east, allowing for some mid level ridging to sneak into the Lakes and allow HP to fill the cracks. helps the airmass out a lot

god that is so close

So what's the mechanism to bring it north and west besides model bias and weenie wishes?

Went negative tilt a little to late. Again really close

Exactly. The Rubber band is being stretched further and further, when it snaps back…boom.

It’s close it’s damn close. But no cigar

It does! Hope it works out for us. But per usual, we are left with a 0-80% chance of 0-27" of snow right now.

this is one of the few events that can actually trend north/west for us. I would say at 180 hours---we are looking pretty good if you know the GFS biases lol

Ya too early to have it show us getting crushed. Slowly reel it in over the next couple days.

18z GFS with the storm signal still there. Not a big event but nice to see it still there.

Ticking the right way still. OBX can have it this run

man--if this went negative just a few ticks earlier/more west

what?

Indeed. I agree. It is nice to have some things to track besides whether we will crack 50 or not though lol. We are lucky enough to have NWF opportunities in addition to the larger systems that come through vs those further east. I lived on the beach before moving up here and I remember getting excited just because it might get below freezing for a night or two. It was miserable.

My weenie prediction is yesterday's 6z bomb run was to portend how this system ends up as the 18z run from 120hrs out in 2/07 ended up being the red flag for that storm.

the GFS AI shifted west a bit

WPC and NBM have backed down on precip. totals by an inch or so over most areas. That said, I think 3-4" is possible wherever the firehose sets up and if it stays put. RGEM, NAMs, and RAP are further south with the firehose bullseye than the globals have been until recently, towards your area. We'll see if we get a tick NW by tomorrow AM.

Huh, 51F today. I was told that we would not break 50F during this warm period.

Please no....

We had multiple BM track rainstorms in January 1958. A lot of people are very ignorant of weather history....but that is my forte, so it's easy to push back on. Multiple things can be true at once (which is also hard for many)....you can be warming, but also not have every event be some new shocking paradigm. Places like interior New England are likely never warming enough to become a DCA/BWI climate....perhaps that happens to NYC at some point....but even that could be a stretch.

dont know what the end result will be but the 18z should be better than the 12z which may not be saying much

Stop. He knows what he's looking at.

Been busy the last few days so haven't been paying much attention(a good thing actually) Just looking at the ens means, and this is a pretty sweet UL look. We haven't seen energy digging like this very often lately. Still not crazy about the look in eastern Canada, with the vort lobe and higher heights near 50-50, so interaction and timing is critical. Details to be resolved going forward. Op runs will have some misses, close calls/teases, and some hits. Stay calm.

I saw freezing fog as part of my forecast too. That should be fun in the morning.

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