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This 6Z Euro AI op run based on 10:1 has 19” at DC! Of course the 10:1 is way overdone because it has temps 33-35 for the first half of Kuchera. And the Euro AIFS has issues as many of us know with snowfall in general. However, the 0Z CMC and 6Z GFS do have a big hit per Kuchera of 9”! That’s probably a more realistic scenario for the upside potential imho. If DC were to get 9”, it would be their biggest since the 10.3” of 1/12-14/2019!

Yea, that's blatant plagiarism of the KU cookbook.

This is why 2018 and 2023 are both valid analogs, despite each invoking drastically different reactions from CoastalWx!!

Decent Miller B exemplified by the 06z AI GFS version... whether this happens or not, this is a run-way model

Even shows rain to start just south of NYC - what we don't want is this to track too close to the coast because the cold air is marginal - although a more intense system can create dynamic cooling - still early in the game so we will probably have to go through the model madness as usual.

Remember all year I was saying I think it will be like March 2023 with a little more help...case in point. While the pattern is redolent of that particular latter season stanza, the Pacific troughing is not quite as deleterious to winter prospects in this case because it's not as extreme and is accompanied by a favorable PV positioning.

28° and light snow. Doesn't bode well for a torch day.

Latest Natty Blend looks solid. And posting snow maps is now somewhat useful as we are within a week and the preponderance of guidance indicates a legit threat.

Low of 34. Love hearing that the overnight runs moved in a positive direction. Seems like we’ll have a real storm to track. I mean, we’re basically only five days out already. Big runs the next 48 hours.

Noticed that. Vortex to the north also expands and plays a role on whether or not we get Monday. But after Monday I think it may help keep the conus chinook away. I do think we’ll start to get warmer periods, but it also could be active so maybe we can squeeze in some winter weather.

Oh hey hour 384 on the GFS bringing the goods to some lol. Funny yes, but may also be the last fantasy snow showing on models for the not mountains and Virginia north peeps for the season.

Undoubtedly related.

We have had smaller events like the 6z Euro presently shows for the 2nd system. But it’s rare to get a 12”+ like a few of the OP runs have been showing only 2 days after another system. That’s why I am going with an ensemble mean blend right now for the 2nd system. But since nothing is impossible, I am watching to see if the ensemble means move toward some of the more amped solutions in coming runs. Really volatile and delicate set up.

That little block south of James Bay is really saving our bacon during a bonafide Pacific trough onslaught.

Timing these seems tricky. Is Friday more Friday night into Saturday? And then Sunday night/ Monday or more Monday into Tuesday?

^Pretty warm look. Models haven't really been verifying that pattern this Winter though - let's see if it holds as we get closer, but +nao/+epo combo can be pretty warm and sustained for a little bit of time.

PRO: EPS mean being more aggressive than the operational version at this range is typically a red flag .. CON: however, to the straw man, having the ens mean more impressive than operational was also prevalent at this sort of range prior to the end January phantom bomb too. It didn't end well for the ensembles. Particularly in the EPS back then. CON: If it were not for the -PNA canvas I'd have less issue with this has value. PRO: The 00z CMC ensembles being hugely more bullish than the prior 12z mean is. PRO: While the 00z GEFs were still not very interested, the 06z made a significant step toward more concern. I don't think that's a trivial or unimportant. PRO: Sneaky aspect about the pattern foot ... the flow is both progressive, while relaxed in gradient. Of the two, the latter is a bigger positive than the former takes away. It's interesting ( actually ) to see that concurrent physical state in the field, but there is in fact less 60N to 35 N ambient gradient, which allows for more timely/delicate wave harmonics to get set up. This whole system seems to be nested in that favorable temporal dimension ... any later in date or early, it doesn't avail of that and ends up probably sheared/stretched and annoying. CON: Seasonal dearth of coastal storm types. This doesn't intrinsically instruct this thing for or against occurring, but the consistent no-gos do suggest something's going on that is preventative - identifying what that is, and if it is less effective in this case would be interesting. Lastly ... kind of a PRO. The hemispheric PV is either explicitly anchored, or implicitly attempting to do so, depending on guidance sourced and cycle/run, on our side of the NH. This is also somewhat sneaky and unnoticed, but it matters because if it were situated over on the other side while a very robust -PNA ... ongoing, we probably don't have any of this in the first place. 50/50... We could certainly see a strong system miss, or impact.

EURO is the least impressive in general with the two follow up potentials.

looks like NNE gets mostly screwed. sweet

If it’s going to happen, it’ll be soon. Pretty clear indications here:

The 6z Euro showed a big improvement and that model has stunk lately too.

GFS gives my area a foot between Wednesday and Friday.. then if we can get Sunday night into Monday.. would be epic

End of the EPS run which fits nicely into the phase 6 look.

Friday is interesting. Euro is kind of a mess but the other guidance is decent. Sort of a SWFE look. Might be a wet snow or mix at coast for awhile