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One thing of note this year is that Op guidance seemingly has done pretty well vs longer lead ENS guidance, so hey, maybe once again, this has a chance. Verbatim what you've shared would be "anomalous enough". Lol

Emergency dismissal just announced 11-12 dismissal lol right when it’s 28 and raining out

Any obs in western jersey with snow falling or has it already changed to sleet/rain?

hey Don can i use your data for my weather page? I understand if you mind!

+AO/NAO and -PNA rolling forward tells me trough W/ridge E. I dont see MJO headed twds 8? Where did you see that? PNA is a big player in what we get here in the east. Yes, WPO/EPO surely have a say as well, but AO/NAO and PNA trifecta that is against us, says whooaa big fella. Yes, they can be overcome, but in mid march it needs to be anomalously so IMO. Not trying to debbie, just calling it as I see it.

Damn I missed the snow or sleet to start. Or it was just rain the entire time

Two aspects going on at the same time. One, the operational models are physically doing everything shy of violating physical laws to shirk the overall warm pattern (attempting to do so without notice too. lol). Two, the ensemble smoothed means are showing that the warm pattern is transient. It seems the operational/tradition models ( not AIs) are ending up with looks that are sort of rushing to the latter. There might also be some environmental feed backs going on the AI don't handle. Not sure.. speculation. Like, 10-20" of ambient geographic cryosphere. The sun needs to be unabated, because soon as it clouds over with that all that at the bottom, that's going to impose a heat sink. Probably have to take the dailies one at a time and not forecast with much confidence beyond 72 hours. I wouldn't. Keep it at a principle level and allow for bigger errors. This is kind of what we discussed all along - well, I discussed... Not going for more than melt and mud with any confidence. I realize the AI versions show no shame but they are also not lasting very long, either. The 00z GEFs extended index looks similar to March 1993

Had a little sleet to start and now plain drizzle. Like Agnes, very light rates so far.

Ideally we get one or two of those days, get people in the mood, and then drop the hammer mid month to really upset people.

Enough of a glaze of ice to delay school 2hrs.

I like your math better. To be in my 30s again

Overreaction from last Wednesday's delays to cancellations complaints. "Wisdom comes with winters"

Hopefully this isn’t a New England spring learning curve for them The ops have decent warmth too though…not all the same days. But the 11th has been popping up as the really warm day on most runs for days now.

Cocked ?

If that could just hold off until Friday of that week or so...

That will require some installs

I just don’t see how we pull that off with lingering pack and mud. There will be latent cooling offset near the surface. If everything goes right I feel like mid 70s is the ceiling in the warm spots. It could still verify 45° too.

After nailing the blizzard of 2026 it reverted back to factory settings and wasn’t even close with yesterday’s system

Low of 9° this morning. Last single digits until December?

Euro ai is 75-80 too.

Not us luckily!!!!

0z Euro also looked to be loading up for another potential Winter comeback possibility at the end of the 15 day run.

Yup GEFS is weaker in 8 therefore not AS cold but definitely below normal.

I'm still thinking 9am here.. probably 10-11am for you.. It's already starting in the METRO