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There's going to be a insane band somewhere in SNE to southern VT/NH

GFS finally slipped a bit

The 6z suite quite frankly was a disaster for the sub forum. RRFS was its worst run yet. GFS was warmer, drier, and NW. Don’t want to give off panic, but I don’t like these trends after the best euro run yet.

if you cannot find one i will adopt you

Yeah, the Rosebud bit is poetic in theory, but let's be real—by the time you're a 78-year-old superintendent, that 4 a.m. snow check is less "childlike wonder" and more "please don't make me explain another lawsuit to the board." The grounds guy says close, you close: it's not nostalgia, it's CYA (cover your ass) wrapped in boots and a flashlight. Still, in a world of endless model runs and liability spreadsheets, there's something grimly satisfying about one last decision boiled down to "looks bad out there."

So even taking a bit off it still great!

Models starting to up qpf now. 6z GFS koochie

The column is too cold up to H5…toss the kuchie

32.5/15.8

The GFS finally bent the knee

Man, I hope it's not done that early. As of right now, we have no scheduled loads for Monday because of the snow. If it stops that early, if the roads are in any way passable, we'll be expected to go out. As I pointed out in a previous post, I'm a one man show when it comes to snow removal for two properties and three vehicles. I'll need most of Monday to clean this stuff up.

I wouldn't pay attention to the GFS inside of 24 hours. HRRR is my go to at this point, although I'm pretty giddy about the RRFS coming soon.

I’m actually glad to see it. What’s the famous scene in Citizen Kane… his old sled, Rosebud… a child’s memory of playing in the snow….saw a 78 year old retired superintendent recently, I asked him how they made school decisions. He said when it comes to snow he is like a kid again. He’d go out at 4 am with grounds supervisor to see three schools; if the grounds guy said close the schools he did.

GFS definitely warmer, that mix line literally cuts the city.

The 6z RRFS and ICON were not very good runs for the region.

29.6/8.8

Gfs is warmer and sleet gets into the NYC area faster. Cut down totals to single digits

4 degrees. If the over under line for Orange County was 15 inches, using Goshen as the measuring spot, which is close to the geographic middle of the county, do you take the over or under? I would take the over but I think it's close.

It's not unheard of to get severe storm warnings for cells in winter storms. I recall it during the crazy Texas storms before.

Ya we take!!

ICON KOOCHIE!!!

Down to 8 here

CNJ / middle third is a tough forecast I’m thinking, anywhere in the battleground / changeover stripe is gonna be a tough call. Depends further if we’re talking accumulating sleet or white rain, or even ice - not so sure that’s well resolved. Hoping the city gets blasted, but for here I’m really not sure. Mt Holly is still fairly aggressive even with their now reduced totals (7-13). Accuweather has near even odds between 8-12, 4-8, and even 2-4 which underscores what I’m talking about. Could bust high or bust low, tough one. Down to 10 with a -6 DP! I’d say the arctic air has arrived . Still falling.

well that's a good f'in way to start the day!!

I missed the 2016 blizzard and the 2021 snowstorm. It's been a long time since I've seen this. Yeah, I'm excited about it. So what? Do you have to be rude about it?