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It's the high res version of the GFS so....

So far excellent trends this morning for more snow and less ice. I hope it continues.

12z NAM and RGEM look further south with the sleet than 6z fwiw comparing f78 to f84 .

Does anyone remember seeing such a widespread map? TW

God the NAM is super amped. 12z even moreso than 6z. That would end up as a lot of sleet - ZR even towards the end. Pray it's wrong. ECM, ECM-AI, and GFS looked solid overnight however.

1/22 12Z NYC area Total QPF / (Snow/Sleet) using 10:1 NAM (84H) : 0.7 / (6.7) RGEM (84H): 1.0 / (9.0) ICON : 1.4 / (8.5)

the mid level low is tracking pretty far NW to hope for any meaningful snow on the back end. Typically we need that to be tracking over us or to our south for that to work out...its tracking well to our NW. Unless we see that change I would not really put any stock in any significant snow on the back end.

I do remember the horrible ice storm that hit Knoxville my senior year at UT...1982...and I believe it was early February. Also, seem to remember it was bad in Kingsport too. It was quite the sight to see Cumberland Avenue become an ice rink.

The number of epic Late January continues.

I wonder if anything was mixed in with the snow. The roads this morning were unusually slushy for 1-2" of snow with temps in the upper 20s.

For old times sake can we have the storm mode in bright red at the top of the page? maybe a radio show too

40 otg is tough

You say that as if the synoptic setup hasn’t changed significantly in 4 days. hindsight is 20/20, but at the time it looked significantly colder

It's not weenieism to expect a modest de-amp going into the short range. The majority of big storms have a series of mid range model runs that go all ham and then back off inside of 48-72 hours. Every storm is unique and I'm not making any definitive calls and I'm nearly certain that big snow is off the table but I'm feeling OK that big ice threat will keep slowly backing off each model suite.... famous last words lol...

Thanks @SACRUS for your map postings last 24 hours or so. I'm on the road today so nice to pull over and scroll through here to get a sense of what the models are doing even if I don't have time to look at upper level stuff etc. I have to say the RDPS and ICON secondary placement is not bad. Just have to get it going fast enough to halt the warming mid levels. If it gets going fast enough it could keep the immediate interior mostly snow. Either way 6-8 / 6-10 seems like a good call based on the early guidance so far this morning. Higher end of range with some upside potential if secondary cooperates.

How reliable is the FV3? That thing is downright cold with initial thump for the forum.

And that's just thru 84 hours wow still about 12 hours left after that

Me too I think we've all had a run-in with that perfect someone now escaped over their rear horizon. ... perhaps never truly forgotten. The what-might-have-been if were not for the saboteur within. They contrive these torpedo designes to sink the relationship, manifesting all these frustrating plausibility's that we have to consider or else we're dismissive - see how they trap you? But, these implosion fears, they're far less likely true. So it's all but impossible trying to give them respect. Relationship, over. Brilliant. These people have fear of intimacy with this storm! HAHAHA

It’ll be latitudinally dependent. The protrusion of the warm nose will have less depth and less opportunity the further north and west you go in the grand scheme. Rate dependent mixing of cooler air aloft will also be at play, so the advancement of the mixing line will have a multitude of variables at play. I think along and south of I-70 mixes no matter what. North and west of there is the question mark. It will be a fight for those zones.

He very clearly said their area

I completely agree about the coast.

That post was specific for northern MD and southern PA. Closer to 95 the warm layer is a bit more significant the last 6 hours.

6z Euro ensembles well over a foot of snow.