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PD II absolutely blew in my area.

I'm really wondering about MCPS right now. Trying to make a decision of if I'm going to travel next week, but I'll only do it if they shut down school for the week. The potential for 10+" of snow and 3" of sleet make me think its a possibility.

Looks like GFS and Euro are slowly starting to meet in the middle. Suspect the rain/ice line will setup somewhere just west of Easton in the end. Obviously, much of precip type/amount and how quick things change over is more of day of thing in a situation like this. GFS likes to give us a nice thump of snow still.

AIGFS a bit worse.

Follows the rgem. Probably just noise since other models have settled on 1 to 1.5"

As cavi posted above, it was actually a notable move in the gfs direction. We need those kinds of trends down the home stretch.

Ok then they both incrementally moved towards general agreement. I tend to watch the location and track of the developing coastal low because that has more influence over here. GFS has shifted NW with the track and is warmer than it was(more like the Euro) for a time as the flow off the ocean erodes the low level cold.

GFS has been remarkable in its consistency IMO

There will be a dry slot but I think it will stay mostly along the counties that border the SC/NC coast, maybe 2 counties inland. This happens a lot with systems that skirt along the coastline. The dry slot with winter SLP's tends to follow closely along/ahead of the SLP track.

The problem is that when Leesburg doesn’t get 2’, people won’t just stop trusting Apple’s weather forecasts, they’ll also conflate it with “the weather man”.

Everyone expecting a full on cave here. These are noise level changes. Snow starts tomorrow night. Don’t expect major changes at this point, unless things get warmer like the 12z NAM showed

I instinctively 100d you and I still agree but selfishly there's only about a month of Malacka Winter™ left and about half of that is apparently fixing to be CAD unironically now... Not complaining but it do be like that

We are certainly rooting for the GFS in our necks, it’s how this can produce close to memorable #’s for us. 15+ is not out of the question with a few minor changes overall.

AIGFS has trended to squash total on north end over last 3 runs, but we remain unchanged

First time all week it's had a friendlier run, lol

3 improved, 2 neutral, overall big south/stronger confluence trend

CMC definitely improved over 00z

GFS is a bulldog with this storm

This has been hashed out endlessly in football forums far and wide. It apparently takes about 1 1/2 weeks until the acclimation process kicks in to the point you are better off. Short of that, you are best off getting there the day before.

Pd2 sucked jmo, and this weekends is not much different. Everyone knows I like powerful storms and that ain't it. Hopeful the next is

My Dr. told me once that N folks are a hearty bunch. Our bodies are tuned to rapid changes, so we adjust quickly. After this cold, 30 will feel like t-shirt wx. While 30 in the Fall warrants a winter coat.

Maybe I'll get...just a little rimey.

Canadian and Reggie both have weird mini max and mins.

A bit drier I think more than even warm, I don't see any 18+ totals anywhere on the GGEM.