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Doesn't even do well 3 lol

Butterfly effect

Could someone explain to me what the difference between data obtained via flights like this and the data that does into any old model run? It seems to me that each suite must have new data, so is it simply more precise for a particularly relevant area when gathered this way?

I don’t see this as a subby type deal. That’s what I alluded to earlier about a widespread storm vs the haves and have nots

Based on what one of the Gentlemen said that was on the dropsonde flight the 0z GFS and Euro will immediately have the data readily available to go tonight. There was no mention of any other models.

https://imgur.com/a/aVzgAUu#obgCWiD

If you are feeling good we're going to get rocked. LFG.

Eh. I wouldn't give the GFS too much credit given how much it folded to the Euro (gradually), while the Euro hasn't taken any meaningful steps back to the South (yet)

Small things, but yeah I notice them too. Im just looking for anything at this point. If I see a features 3 miles further west/east north or south, I'm coping and telling myself big changes are on the way

Hopefully far enough where were not on the northern fringe so when we get the last minute messenger tics were still in the middle of guidance.

I was also in NYC and if I remember right, that was the storm (on some other forum) where a ~40 yr veteran but retired NWS person called bust early and was eaten alive.

Awesome photo! Similar scene here:

They should make a hrrr that goes out to 360

Well if this storm keeps trying to invent ways to fail I will relinquish my trademark...but for now BAJA BLAST

In all seriousness though, a number agencies….fed and state/local are actively staging resources to respond to this. Lots of planning calls today.

They ran it earlier and we didn’t like it, so the plan is to not ingest it going forward

No way in hell we see 20:1 ratios, Yes it will be cold but the max i see is 15:1, maybe a short period at 18:1? During the height of the storm but that’s pushing it.

Just got back from Wegman’s near what I think is your old stomping ground…looked like it had been robbed. Feeling pretty good about this storm up this way, though I could see how Thurmont and north might do better than Frederick proper.

SW already lagging a bit and north stream is a bit more east.

Ratios are not just dependent on temperature. Snow habit makes a huge difference. Dendritic snow has the best chance for higher ratio even in a marginal thermal profile.

Wilbraham's a good radiation spot, retains well too.

That would make sense, if we start out with good saturation and lift in the -12 to -18C cloud layer we get the best ratios from good snow growth. If that warms up we lose the best ratios. 20:1 is very rare even in the best setups and I’d argue we wouldn’t even want that as that would be pure fluff that would compact/blow away. I’m fine with less snow overall but longer lasting.

She ain’t done going north. Question is, how far she go…

@Maestrobjwa is going to be having a word with you

Yeah, I heard they were cutting, I have some friends that work over there. The one thing I hate about factory work everyone is expendable