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Check out motives or leaning man... Another ad nauseum aspects folk hide their heads in a brown paper sack like a cat trying to evade a 5 year-old tail puller is that the sun is now formally ended winter. It's turned up the inflection out of the dish pan wattage and we are in the transition season - today being the first full day. It doesn't mean much in the dailies ... obviously big winter events can transpire into May in this piece of shit spring geography ... but, excluding those rarer returns, there is also a futility to looking at a winter event on guidance - for me anyway - that I cannot escape. Plus... winter and snow is not everyone's bag. In here, if you voice visions of joy outside that confines ( and it is a prison of perception by the fuckin way ) it can be so liberating. LOL no but I have a lot of outdoor stuff I enjoy too much. That combined with the fact that it is really undeniable that the verification routinely falls short of this "model cinema" pastime/investing. Patience wears thin right at the time the sun is noticeably brighter and hotter. heh -

1-3" seems likely for many in SNE. Maybe someone south of the NH border has things stack to 4" but I wouldn't forecast that. Chicken coops look to do well

You even have to know that the cold is on borrowed time. Over time, the law of averages say that things eventually return to the mean. Our recent cold winters (like 2010, 2011, and 2015) all had very warm spring months. I'm looking to the first week of March. I see warmth and 60-degree days coming.

You think it's been a cold start to February? You are correct! Here in Chester County PA with data back to 1893 this is the 3rd coldest on record as only 1905 (11.2 avg. temp) and 1905 (18.4) were colder. We finally see most spots getting above freezing today but still at least 5 degrees below normal levels. Tomorrow will be our warmest day of the work week with highs well into the 30's. We turn colder again to close out the week, and we could see some snow arrive or Sunday with a likely change to rain by Monday.

Shouldn't have looked, now I will be chasing another cycle!

You think it's been a cold start to February? You are correct! Here in Chester County PA with data back to 1893 this is the 3rd coldest on record as only 1905 (11.2 avg. temp) and 1905 (18.4) were colder. We finally see most spots getting above freezing today but still at least 5 degrees below normal levels. Tomorrow will be our warmest day of the work week with highs well into the 30's. We turn colder again to close out the week, and we could see some snow arrive or Sunday with a likely change to rain by Monday.

GFS has that weird little slot of lighter precip. It has done that several runs

I’d give this winter a B-/C+ if we’re really done with any decent snow from here. Definitely cold but once again enormous potential wasted for big storms when we had the cold. Jan 25th as good an event as it was had the most snow north of me since it ended up behaving as SWFEs do. We did luck out in Dec with the clippers but across the area we’re still below average for seasonal snow and I can’t rate the winter as that good unless we make it above average.

i’m surprised I’m under a winter weather advisory. They must really be concerned about ice this evening. Looks like a quick hit

Models look interesting for the weekend. Still too far out but maybe a chance at a minor-moderate snowfall.

Anyone ever dabble in the ASOS temp betting?

HRRR hints at some lighting possible with that convective stuff moving across southern CT tonight

Good luck expecting every event to bust positive. Like Scoot said…hope to get a little from the initial arm of WAA and then go to town briefly with the line dropping SE to finish.

FWIW the 06z Euro is an absolute crush job and much colder for N NC MTNs and a lot of VA! Also, temps not too far off this run all the way back down towards I40. Temps change between 00z and 6z is crazy!

We had two here, 8-9” on 12/26 was a very good one. And then the whopper. Abs the deep cold for such a long time. This has been very good here. So you can judge it the way you want obviously, but that doesn’t apply imo to what it’s been.

Sitting in the car, in the school pick up line yesterday, I had the window down and the sun felt warm on my face.

Well, I mean....we are all storm enthusiasts....I know for me, I understand, but it's not like I ignore guidance because I'm mindful of fast flow. Anomalies happen.....so while east coast blizzards may be more of an endangered species these days, they aren't yet extinct. I don't think remaining ever vigilant and hopeful despite an understanding of the faster flow and current tropical forcing tendencies is necessarily indicative of "an aptitude gap".

HRRR had 1” or so for that Jan 21 event in CT that we had 4” from . I remember the southern CT posters weren’t expecting more than a dusting

Yeah idk…no need to overthink it. A model being on its own this close in usually doesn’t cause you to exude confidence in it. I was just using his own words against him. It’s pretty easy to find him contradicting himself.

Anyone else notice how warm 35* felt with strong sunshine yesterday?

Expecting a nice refresher tonight. 2-3”.

I mean, in a general sense, large sectors of our society do this, when it comes to truths that don’t fit our semi-idealistic narratives. It seems like a bug that’s built into our software. Heh

I think 1988, 1999, and 2007 should be anti-logs (possibly also 2025). 1988 is the worst possible analog, as that was coming off a double-year strong el nino, which peaked in the summer (of 1987), and the PDO was flipping from + to -.