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tomorrow looks good on cmc

Nothing really jumpin out so far. I'm enjoying a gin martini. 3rd one. How yall doing?

i'm trying to figure out how to put this guy and snowman (sound like the same people) on ignore

Canadian weaker and SE. Please spare me the 1” of slop. I’d rather nothing

Why are you looking at Sunday when Saturday is the better potential and it’s 12 hours away

0Z GFS says dont punt, go for it on 4th down

According to Ben Noll, only 19% of CONUS has average or above average snow thus far this season. Lowest since 2011-2012. I’m sure that’ll change soon but it shows how dry the US has been and warm (we in the Northeast and Midwest got lucky, it’s still been relatively cold). For rest of US, winter never got started at all.

ICON looked nice for the 22nd. GFS looks to be loading up the goods as well. We shall see

I'm legit wondering whether Baltimore is turning into that (at least temporarily). Like in what universe does S. Md do better than Baltimore for like 7 years?? Didn't these sliders used to come further north/northeast than this? I mean dang!

GFS is backing that thing up...

First & Final Call For Two-Part Nuisance Holiday Weekend Snowfall Part One Saturday-Part Two Sunday Night Plowable Snowfall Likely Northwest on Saturday and Southeast on Sunday Night Eastern Mass Weather asserted late last week that a significant storm was highly unlikely to materialize on Friday into Saturday. However, there was a distinct possibility that the follow up wave could produce major winter storm this coming Sunday Monday, due in large part to subtle changes in the orientation of the western CONUS ridge. It now appears likely that significant snowfall on Sunday will be largely relegated to the southeastern thirds of the region, as intimated on Wednesday. Synoptic Overview Cold air infiltrated the region today behind yesterday's storm, setting the stage for a modest two-part snowfall over the region during this holiday weekend. It's a subtle reorientation to of the ridge near the west coast of the CONUS to a more negative tilt that allows the system on Sunday to amplify just enough to threaten a portion of the region with a light to moderate snowfall on Sunday night. However, before that takes place, a lead piece of vorticity (energy in the atmosphere) will pass over central New England during the day on Saturday. This will trigger a light southwesterly flow that that will advect some slightly milder air into the area, largely relegating accumulating snows to the northwestern half of the region, especially over the higher terrain. Once this system passes, colder air returns on Saturday evening as attention shifts to the approaching main portion of the amplifying incoming trough. The trough is going negative just soon enough to impact the majority of the region with significant snows. However, since the energy struggles to initially phase in a cohesive manner, there will be a limit to how much the system can amplify, as well as the northwest extent of significant snowfall. Expected Storm Evolution Part one in association with the lead energy spreads light snow into the northwestern half of the region on Saturday morning. It will become occasionally moderate over the higher terrain of the Berkshires during the middle portion of the day. Snow potentially spreads into eastern areas and ends as a rain/snow mixture during the late afternoon and early evening hours. There will then be a lull in the action overnight Saturday night through Sunday morning until mixed precipitation redevelops over the south coast, cape and islands around midday on Sunday and into the early afternoon. There should be some impact on the Patriot's playoff game, which may accentuate home field advantage, so dress accordingly. Precipitation will transition to snow from west to east over the cape and islands, as snowfall also overspreads the I 95 corridor while becoming steadier and more moderate. Snowfall should taper off around midnight from west-northwest to east-southeast. First & Final Call:

you're forgetting GFS Ai and Euro Ai

Hey imma be heading out to WV tomorrow! Further south in Cranberry Wilderness but excited to see snow again!

One thing that stuck out to me on that NAM and GFS run was this piece of energy is phasing with the southern part of the shortwave when it was not before. This amps the system up a bit more, earlier formation of the low pressure, and more lift to the north and west. Need 2 or 3 runs of trends back my way but could very well put a lot more people back in the goods. Now if Dr. No will just agree.

I'm fairly confident that's too far SE. Like 65%.

Would think that western edge of precip from the GFS will look better than modeled.

I thought the HRRR did pretty good actually to an extent even before i went to bed last night but it still whiffed,it was one of the few models that actually showed all snow but it missed the lower levels.Nashville even talked about it to a sort earlier .UPDATE... Issued at 654 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026 An upper level trough and surface low are over the Great Lakes region pushing a cold front into Middle TN. We are seeing areas of rain ahead of this cold. The front will continue to push to the east into the overnight with rain ending in the Nashville area by midnight and after 3 AM for the Plateau. We are seeing some bright banding on the radar at times with the line and CC shows the freezing level at 1-3 feet off of the surface. Temperatures aloft are cold enough to support snow but our surface temps currently in the in the low to mid 40s are too warm for snow. Cold air will be settling in during the evening but we should remain warm enough for all rain through at least 9 PM. After 9 PM temps will start to be cold enough for some snow to mix in across the Plateau with all snow expected after 11PM/midnight. The Plateau could pick up a quick dusting to 0.50" between 11 PM and 3 AM. Overnight lows will be chilly falling into the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Snowing at a good clip in my backyard. Sticking quickly.

Another tick northwest from GFS. Verbatim a coating to inch for most of us. But pretty nice in DelMarVa and Cape of Massachusetts. but at this point; only the CMC, NAM, and RFS have anything measurable for us. Everything else is just offshore. We can trend positively for one more day

Mini WoR win.

Suppression with the sliders causes me to misbehave on here. It's just...all. The. Fringes. South. And south east! Like so many times over the last decade. Has there ever been a time when the lower eastern shore has done better than Baltimore for this long???

Ai gfs continues its cave. Another tick weaker and SE

Nam was right for Nemo I mean something is always right at least once lol .