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Bring it.

Inside is 61-62F… wife may force heat soon after another night of 30s. Put on another hoodie, babe.

My area got clobbered overnight. I got 2.75" and my part of the city was the driest. The north side got 3-4+". My September total is now close to 9", with 7" of that falling in the last five days.

Getting what feels like bonus rain this morning. Finally over an inch for the month and hoping to double it over the next few days.

Not good for the Durham Fair weekend in Connecticut. I usually root for these things but the rain really kills fair attendance. Sent from my motorola edge 2024 using Tapatalk

depends on how close the warm front to the south moves in our direction. Temps this morning are in the 70's south of Philly -wouldn't be surprised if there are some heavier showers along with a T-storm with elevated instability later today especially in central NJ.

3 days of trees coming down for you Days and days .

Low of 64 with very steady rain. I’m just going to get one final gauge reading tomorrow morning. Great lazy day for some football.

Yeah like a Friday night to Sunday deal. Weekend would be toast.

Is this centered on Saturday next weekend if it happens?

It would be windy, but they’ll probably be a cool wedge to stabilize the lower levels. Although if it retros far enough west that would increase winds.

Doesn’t seem like anything to look forward to inland then . Strong pressure gradient could help winds

1.93” last night. Was not expecting this much. .

6z Euro AI hooks the storm into New England

Yep that’s interesting.

This rain is so beneficial

Check out the whole 6z Euro AI run that looked fun and definitely not boring

Yeah the PDO is an important feature in the grand scheme of things. I would advise against diminishing it's ability to modulating this event, as I have said before. How much and in what way is an intriguing question though given a record breaking el nino. See the above CPC text from @bluewave. "the PDO phase is negative and may dampen the typical impacts of a strong El Niño in certain areas" Ok, but how? Where? The following study goes into that a little bit: Modulation of ENSO teleconnections over North America by the Pacific decadal oscillation https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac9327 The main finding from this multi-model SMILE study is that a positive PDO acts to amplify El Niño and diminish La Niña teleconnections over North America, while a negative PDO has the opposite effect. we find that the largest modulation occurs for temperature over Alaska and Canada and precipitation over California. Our work builds on Dong et al (2018), who make similar conclusions, by focusing specifically on North America and demonstrating that these results are robust across multiple fully coupled climate models. While Dong et al (2018) forced their atmospheric model with fixed SST patterns for 50 years, we show that the amplification and diminishment of ENSO teleconnections by the PDO hold for a realistic model configuration where ENSO events occur with a variety of patterns, amplitudes, and durations. Atmospheric circulation anomalies are found to mediate the modulation of ENSO by the PDO. Specifically, Aleutian low and Pacific jet anomalies associated with an El Niño are enhanced by a positive PDO and weakened by a negative PDO. This result is consistent with the results of Dong and Dai (2015), who show that Pacific Decadal Variability (measured using the IPO) influences North America via the atmospheric circulation in the North Pacific. we find that the modulation of ENSO temperature and precipitation teleconnections over North America by the PDO can be described as a simple combination of the effect of the individual modes. This result agrees well with Rao et al (2019) who suggest a linear interference of the impacts of the two modes is likely.

The 5 model blend for Augusta County has increased from 1.65" yesterday to 1.72" this morning.

There are some smart people on this forum, how worried do we need to be about ai? It seems like the smartest people with the most experience with this stuff are the most worried and that’s usually not good.

Yeah it's been pouring hard here all night