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I would too. My gut says one will find a small area with just the right conditions and RI at least one time like Joaquin in 2015 but this current super el nino is unprecedented and it's honestly a bit naive to just assume this will behave like previous super el ninos. The distance this super el nino could be at its peak from previous record super el ninos will likely be a bigger temperature difference than all the older record supers are to average el ninos. We really have no playbook to fully understand all the intricate effects this super el nino is having on worldwide weather patterns at a glance. Nino's at this strength could make everything behave differently than the ones we're used to. That's why I'm slightly annoyed seeing so many people trying to forecast the upcoming winter fully confident this will play out just like other super el ninos we've had. There is nothing we can look back at for the one we're experiencing right now lmao. It will be fascinating to see how differently or not it effects this hurricane season overall though. It's possible these hyper el ninos don't play any differently than previous supers but we'll see in a few years if they do or not.

Texas point topped out at 50 kts sustained with gusts to just below hurricane force, 62 kts (71 mph). This storm was likely 1-2 hours away from hurricane intensity based on the rapid organization at landfall

Even today, look at the models. Whether it's 850 Td or theta-e...just gets cut off near NYC. That is one thing I have noticed.

At least your area had July 4th. There has been nothing river east and even over most of NNE. People are asking why the pattern has been more S and W of New England. I'll include SW CT. If I go by memory, it seems like we've had a lot of W-NW flow and this low to mid level theta-e boundary over the OH valley and at times pushing into the NYC area. So while we had some warm and humid days, the real juice has been more to the SW. Storms love higher theta-e and it can't push far to the northeast if the flow is NW-SE. We never really had a ridge flex into New England....it's been to our southwest.

There's some slightly enhanced kinematics ,slightly enhanced sheer profile north of my area.

4:00pm Mucape/ Cin /lpl low-level lapse rates mid-level lapse rates.

Not even one "low cape / high shear" event!

40 kt gusting to 49 kt at Sabine Pass (buoy system)- on the beach

My friends once told me that the Maroon Bells are crumbly and dangerous.

We’ve had plenty of rain. Don’t need more

It’s sad when the weather highlight of the season is a day of smoke.

Thanks for posting the official landfall. I jumped the gun lol. We’ve made it to September without a hurricane.

Edouard really tried at the very end. Thank goodness it didn't have another 12-18 hrs over water.

Both the 18Z HRRR/RRFS expect massive convection over the area by 2030-2130Z. That seems unlikely. I do think areas south though in NJ may see extensive storms later

At least the desert of AZ is getting pummeled with severe. Makes me feel better.

That was very early for me lol. I woke up pretty early as I knew it would take nearly 3 hrs to get there. I thought I was doing well based on the models showing hardly anything before 3PM. Regardless, it was still a stunning experience! It was nice (PC) for over an hour at the start and when it rained it was light with no lightning thank goodness. I also should mention that I had no intention to hike up those mountains. I hiked on ground that didn’t rise more than 150 feet or so up to only ~11,700 feet max not far from the beautiful Maroon Lake.

93 currently. Looks like we'll get 2 days but no heat wave. Back door cold front to the rescue tomorrow.

Haha, I figured, it was close. I saw it on RadarScope first.

The boredom locally this summer is nothing I've ever experienced. Holy crap.

Looks like my posts about extreme heat have aged well after all

We don't get multiday severe potential very often but when we do, usually we'll get one day to work out. I mean southwestern CT certainly has some shot early this evening. There still may be some time to get Thursday to work but probably unlikely. But Thursday is quite complex...I may even be incorrectly evaluating and saying 850 front being the issue. Maybe we want to hope tomorrow night isn't as robust and we don't have to deal with thick overcast and precip to begin the day on Thursday. It's very possible this may be overstated too with the more robust precip going to our southwest where better instability is.

Ha I literally looked a minute before this

We’re on to coastal season

The CAMs are really all over the place (seems to be a common theme this year). I could technically see chunks of the area getting skunked through the whole week...The game of weather lottery!

Below is the summer (June-July-August) temperature summary for 2026 and summer temperature history from 1871-1926. This was 33rd warmest summer but overall since 1895 there has been no statistically significant warming or cooling across both the raw and composite trend and only the NCEI adjusted averages indicate any significant summer warming.