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  2. michsnowfreak
    Post of the year
  3. GaWx
    I predict many of them will be sick and tired of rain/clouds/gloom once this winter is over although that’s much better than remaining in drought:
  4. michsnowfreak
    Even "window" is a highly subjective term imo. If your talking simple snow chances, then theres lots of windows for the Lakes and New England. If your talking a period of sustained winter for a few weeks at a time, id say a few windows.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Also, and one can see this on the Weeklies today (ensemble and control), that often SSWs will dump directly into Montana and then race into northern Texas....and then crawl eastward. That sets up the mid-section of the country for snow/ice for late November and early December if true. And that also sets us up for severe per Jeff.
  6. vortex95
    And this micromanaging of the PV. Our POR is not that long, and the degree of attention we have given it in the last 20 years or so? Some just are making a living taking about the PV and every litte nuance and idiosyncrasy. It is excessive. There is more to the wx and pattern than the PV, and just b/c does something that has not been seen before in the POR does not necessarily mean it will have *any* noticeable on sensible wx outside the norm. It's really more about content now for many on social media to feed the daily media "beast" than practical info one can use for forecasting IMHO. They know by promoting such, they can get media interviews and the like, for 15 sec of "fame."
  7. michsnowfreak
    I LOVE winter walks. Took so many the last few years. The crunch of snow underfoot in the cold dry air, absolutely love it. But i know its not for everyone. When there isnt snow for a prolonged period, I 100% would rather take a walk in wad or cad than rain. I never take a walk in rain unless its a necessity.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Yes. They are incredibly tricky. There is a smaller cluster of solutions(over the years) which can hit NA first. "Usually" (in my experience) those occur from late December to especially Feb - March. Now, early strat splits can do some funky stuff. If all of that cold dumps into Asia, then it would take time for it to recharge(meaning prolonged AN temps in NA). Like Jeff said, we really want it to get more jostled than split. I am seeing some colder temps(at times) on LR ext models, especially some(not all) control runs. That could be a false alarm. We have definitely seen models jump on colder solutions for NA during SSWs and be woefully wrong. I tend to think winter will be more of a "second half of winter" deal this year, but...a strat split could upend almost any seasonal forecast right off the bat.
  9. vortex95
    Huh? There have been 4 very strong El Nino prior to this one since 1950. And everything going on so far this cool season has lined up well w/ what to expect. Just b/c the pattern in the NEUS is "boring" and warm? @CoastalWxneeds to set aside his personal predilections about what HE wants for wx! Do I have to bring up the singles/doubles and home run analogy again? And one can slice and dice down super local and find things that have not happened before given the sheer amounts of wx parameters to use and climate locations out there. That's micromanaging to find content to hype. What matters is the large-scale mean.
  10. mreaves
    The Great Vermont Flood of 1927, November 3-4
  11. Maestrobjwa
    Feels like this time around, temperatures would be more rug pulls than precip...
  12. jaxjagman
    Tomer did some upgrades on POLAR WX,thought i already posted it 'https://www.polarwx.com/products/
  13. mreaves
    Until Irene, this was the one to beat them all. Lots of bridges with 1928 build dates.
  14. forkyfork
    frontranger left the board for 9 years after the 2016 sea ice extent came in second worst
  15. roardog
    As long AI stops our planet from warming then it’s ok if it kills us all. That’s how some people think. lol
  16. GaWx
    Based on the combo of an E based super Nino with +QBO, 1982-3 is the single best analog for DJFM. Although it was AN in the megapolis, this was no torch there with it only ~2F AN. The true torch was much further W centered on the upper MW. The S US was NN (1877-8 among others was similar): Precip: sharp deliniation between very wet SE/AN NE coast to BN to the NW and AN beyond that:
  17. MJO812
    ET coming ?
  18. PhiEaglesfan712
    AI might end us first, lol.
  19. vortex95
    Thanks. Yes, something one needs to take a step back and look at things in a balance and objective way. Like "are things really that atypical or abnormal in the context of what is happening in a given pattern/oscillation?" It like when we get an epic E Coast winter, how is that unusual really? It has happened before, so in itself, that it normal climo. Sure, frequency in winters go up and down over longer periods, but again, that's normal! And sometimes, it is absolutely NUTZ! I always say, "when it's good, it sometimes can be REAL good!" and not act linear in terms of how wild it can get. Like the 6 week period in Jan-Feb 2015. Quite localized, but where it was good, it was the best ever for snow weenies! The best example I like to use is April 2011. Yes, we first think about the superoutbreak at the end of the month, and that was epic, but there were over 500 other tors that month outside that event for the tor record for *any* month by far w/ 757 for the CONUS!
  20. Lava Rock
    70.3F for the high. As nice as it has been, it's getting a little old. Need more fall-like seasonal temps to set the mood. Some rain would be appreciated too. 2.37" since Oct 1.
  21. BooneWX
    SSW is why right now, I’d favor an above average temp regime most of the winter - in fact I think winter disappears for long durations but it’s countered with above average snowfall. I think we have no shortage of moisture and inevitably we link up one of these SSW events with a storm or two.
  22. BooneWX
    Folks down east of us need it to get going and get going fast
  23. BooneWX
    Update: I am alive. House is looking festive. Now bring on some cold weather!
  24. roardog
    Basically anyone who doesn’t think the earth is going to uninhabitable in 5 years is labeled a denier here.
  25. Brian5671
    Given how dry we are I'm not jumping on any rain train
  26. vortex95
    @CoastalWxmay need to be "cocked" a lot this winter to forget the torch and lack of snow! Pass the Mad Dog 2020!
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