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That warm tongue is bigger than Gene Simmons'

It's early but starting to like the looks of this for those of us 35 miles or more north of the city, especially with some elevation 500 feet and up.

GFS is a lot more stacked than other guidance (i.e not as sloped with the pressure fields)....it's really going crazy with the main vort focusing and capturing the system....so we're seeing these tucked solutions with crazy QPF and rates....but also warmer for most of our area. I'm actually not sure which one to buy right now....I could be convinced either way. Part of me thinks GFS is a little overdone on this given the synoptics, but it's not impossible to see that solution.

Euro will be mocked over this all winter. We're getting revenge for the Ryder Cup.

We are so due for an overperformer. Going 11.7” imby

EPS signals that we still have lots of chances after Dec 2.

Feels like bizzaro world with the GFS having a consistent amped up low while the Euro is the SE outlier. After decades of the opposite I don’t know how to feel about this.

Toss.

12-18", We can always adjust upwards if needed.

For what an inch or 2 in a small area?

That parent short wave is still pretty far north and the one ahead of it just helps get things going.

Low is tucked right into Rhode Island. Congrats southern VT and SW NH. Paste job there.

Over who gets more rain?

Not sure about O-line comments, but Harbaugh didn't sugarcoat a lot last night...actually blamed himself for the fumbling problems.

Think we sneak out something but how much tbd

lol at the sunny forecast

Been weird though because the GFS has underdone some significant differences with H5 evolution. It's also been trending stronger with that trailing shortwave which maybe is acting to amp it up a bit? We're also kind of entering the time period where the GFS seems to have a bias towards this regard. Wouldn't be surprised to see it backed off some Saturday or even Sunday.

Related to this, check out the differences in the means (green) between the +AO of the 0Z GEFS and the slight -AO of the EPS: GEFS: EPS:

Congrats Dendrite?

Looked like it close to paste there.

Well at least Ray and Kevin won’t need to fight lol.

Pivotal clown still has my area mostly snow, but its precarious at best. Lots of sleet in there methinks

I’d argue GFS has been leading the way with this.

Minor revision from previous forecast

I know that that one model seems to be more warm biased and the other colder. Just forgetting which is which.