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Will keep an eye on it. As @psuhoffman said “sure would like to get the first one in the books first”

Acceptable. With all seriousness, we get buried by GFS and Ukie, and even CMC drops 8-10” on us. We are sitting good right now

There’s actually a burst of snow at the end.

Some good news for a change.

I love how we went from worrying about suppression to mixing in 24 hours. Cant it ever be easy?

Yes it does look slightly south of 06z.

Looks liike aigfs squashed our end-of-month storm. Not a bad spot to be though

"The trend is really alarming for MBY" "Hate to see this" "It's trending so bad for MBY"

I'll wait for the CRAS to get in range.

Ukie convection. More of that please! We just need a severe outlook to go with everything. I kid of course. If the Euro starts doing things like that this will get more complicated. My guess is models are trying to figure out the two waves. Stay the course, which is unfortunately awful.

Yeah, I'll jump over in the long term thread in a bit to discuss. I have to go get my run in!

I guess that's not the worst model run I've seen for MBY

Definitely a known bias. And again I have to think the with the majority of the guidance still with plenty of room to the south, I don’t hate it. Let’s smell the sleet and take a swing!

I mean, it's all a fantasy, but imagine if that happened

What’s timing Sunday vs Monday. Storm vs aftermath?

The 12z UKMET is two waves as well. First wave is winter. Second wave is a cutter.

Heavy front thump followed by hours of a sleetfest.

I mean something this big is probably a one and done, any further snow events will be smaller.

Looks like the pattern continues on the GFS

For those super amped solutions you really need that northern energy to pinch off. Slows everything down, allows heights to recover and acts as a fulcrum for the shortwave to rotate around things like the GFS show it being still entrained in the long wave trough and actually pressing down on heights over SE Canada resulting in a more sheared system that transfers faster For my neck of the woods, I’m personally pulling for the GFS, but I want everyone to win

GFS put belt to ass

As always, not this storm but the storm after the next storm will be our storm

Back to back weekend rules? Ya let’s go

Updated

There is already a thread going...quit trolling