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I wonder if the recent big jump in Nino 4 anomalies and the +SOI is related. Could easterlies be pulling some of that warm water a little back to the west?

You'd assume based on where the PDO is now and its tendency the last 2 winters from what it WAS on 11/1 to where it translated the remainder of the winter that probably is true. I don't see the PDO going from -0.7 to -1.6 when the last 2 winters in what was more a colder neutral setup it went towards neutral both times.

Another possibility is that the stronger mid latitude ridging (which also contributes to the NW Pac marine heat wave) is behind the strat warming. No science behind this, just speculation.

PNA probably stays ++ all winter. Remember one of the measuring points lies in the SE US, so the SE trough combined with the GOA low centered just offshore of western Canada will keep it positive.

It depends WHY its happening though. Is it a product of the strong El Nino or the location of the anomalies? If so it probably means another SSW in Jan/Feb is unlikely unless somehow the El Nino is still at very strong magnitude at that time. But usually by then its weakening fairly quickly.

Watering your cabbage?

Yep the double dip of Falls Lake is just about complete, meaning it is about to match the summer low within the next day or so.

Whereas the GEFS -AO looks significantly less impressive than yesterday, the +PNA still looks very impressive for at least the 3rd day in a row: 10/27 run: 10/28 run: 10/29 run: even a bit more impressive Granted, the GEFS has had a +PNA bias averaged out the last 3 months, but the bias has had only ~half the magnitude of its -AO bias, and it has been mainly after day 7. So, perhaps it’s a bit too +PNA late in the run but otherwise likely has the right idea. I’ll for now assume it has the right idea for the first half of Nov with a PNA of near or above +1 most of the days. What other Nino first half of Nov had a mainly +PNA that was pretty high? 2014, 2002, 1997, 1987, 1976, 1968, and 1953

Yeah, I'm not sure it's all that real either... as winter enthusiasts, we would rather not see the cumulative error products for D7 and D10 leads indicating a 2 SD positive busting ..haha.. prooobably's a red flag. It could also correct -

Keep her going…. K&R Extended season farmers market.

The EURO refuses to back down whatsoever. Still insists on a December peak and holds on to the astronomical, record-shattering warmth in regions 1+2, 3 and 3.4 In other non ENSO news, the +QBO has fully downwelled to the bottom of the stratosphere and continues to strengthen. A very strong positive event has developed. And as @LakePaste25 and myself suspected, the rise in the PDO continues….up to -0.72 I still suspect we see it go weak positive by winter

14 days straight no rain , another 7 until we maybe get some.. heading out to water the garden !

Agree 100% the actual data is clear and consistent across the entire USA not just Yellow Medicine or Chester County.

Thanks, Adam. Point taken, which @Typhoon Tipand many of us agree with. In case you missed it yesterday, Eric also suspects the occurrence of this very early SSW is connected in some way to the very strong and E based Nino: I have a sneaking suspicion that the extreme eastward shift (& intensity) of this year's El Niño potentially has something to do w/ the unusually early stratospheric warming event that's being forecast.

Even though we don't get much at all along the southern tier, you can see that the pattern's changing. This is an impressive amount of the country getting precip:

rainy coastals instead of cutters

If this warmup stops short of 80 then I think we’re done with 80s for the year.

Fake heat at night…I like that. That’s what we’ll use. And unless today is going to be 74 degrees…it won’t be +15 above.

Even if this turns into a true SSWE (major or minor) and a wind reversal, it has to downwell into the bottom of the stratosphere and fully couple with the troposphere, otherwise it’s completely useless. Eric Webb had this to say:

I agree with you here, rad cooling is fake cold. Especially when today is going to be like +15 or whatever for the high

No personal feel on whether this has any portending value for later in the winter. Not sure I see how- but that's no refutation! I can come up study-able explanation for why a 10hPa warm bloob ( the official term! ) is taking place, now, that doesn't require any specific special meaning thereafter. For one, I've been following this for years ...I've noticed lag correlation. First, the Swiss Alps and Urals/ cordillera running N-S between along the Eurasian geographic region, could be instrumental ... about 10 days prior to these warm nodes popping into existence in those higher stratospheric levels. The 10 hPa being one in the 1 thru 30. It seems there is a lag correlation, a week to perhaps 10 days after active N-NE cyclone modes. The idea is, these modes inject/enhance warm advection events downs stream across mid and N Europe, prior to the 10 hPa emergence. The conjecture ( less than hypothesis at this time...) is that the geographical barrier the Eurasian cordillera imposes, assists in lifting the warm air - think 'giving it a boost'. Around the globe over here, over western N/A...we have a similar, though not as abrupt geographic barrier wrt the Rockies orientation ... impinging Pacific flow as it encroaches from the west. As this air 'back logs' due to fluid pressure it begins to deflect up... in the same way, just not as dramatically... Coriolis force additionally factors and turns toward the N... That is the reason the base-line mean flow over N/ features the flat ridge in the W with a gentle nadir coming E of ~ 110 W across the continent. ( as an aside, this is the base-line PNAP, Perennial North American Pattern). It's a useful knowledge nugget, because not ever +PNAP is really a +PNA. Nor is a -PNAP part of a long termed -PNA.. it's like any teleconnectors ..they don't always move together. Anyway, so the Urals and so forth are a younger taller mountain range. Height being the crucial difference. The active storm mode of the N-NE Atlantic sends warm advection/storminess through the central and N Europe. These encounter get deflected N and up over the Eurasian cordillera very proficiently, ... eventually penetrating the "side wall" of the PV. It may take a week to 10 days to do so... If there is a warm anomaly S of the 60 N definition... it may en masse rotated around the hemisphere a couple of time before all this happens. I have enough to at least correlate and subsequently formulate a hypothesis that connects the N-NE Atlantic storm mode with a lag to the mid stratosphere vortex presentations but ... I'm stuck in a day job like everyone else.