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This looks dead based on the EURO direction last few cycles.

Yes, the last frame of that forecast trend loop shows a local vorticity maximum over Southern Michigan that becomes the primary later. The AI models and GFS are mostly favoring the far western portion of the axis instead. Sloppy as it is, the EC has slowly been heading that way since the 00Z run. If it mostly consolidates on the far end (west) of the trough axis then that gives the entire system considerably more room to develop.

agree. considering the range on snowfall for MBY is 0.02(euro) to 36"+(GFS), id say there are two distinct camps, lol

Totally.

Plan on snow Sunday night / Monday . But hope that the thing comes all the way for monster hit. That’s my thought process as of now

Oh, my bad, but wasn't exclusively directed at you. @Sey-Mour SnowThoughts?

I think the ensembles hold more value through 12z tomorrow. Then we should lean on the operational models inside of 72 hours

I'm amazed in 2010 we didnt get any back to backs but I guess not. The MA region I believe did as there were the back to back storms that hit them to our south.

Was describing the run

Haters gonna hate .

I guess now we know how Jan 25, 2000 happened and December 2000 didn't. Very very slight changes mean huge differences. This will probably come down to the wire, especially for eastern areas.

We can agree to disagree on that. I feel as though the track is far more correctable than the risk of occlusion.

Cmc Para is a nice hit

This was what I feel like @clskinsfanwas alluding to yesterday from recollection, whereas h5 should've shown some better results but was lagging at the surface. Hoping we steal one and get at minimum a moderate event.

FWIW this weekend, the NBM high-res ensemble in on board with light snow northeast Tenn. plus the usual Upper Plateau and of course Mountains. Ensemble product isn't picking up on what MRX has in the forecaster's discussion AFD for overnight, but some short-term high-res models pick up on the said flurries or snow showers tonight. Also tonight, freezing fog in the MEM CWA is another issue worth noting. No new accum. Just possible early Wednesday travel headaches.

Putney at 14 basically verified my 14.5" Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

Maybe the Atlantic Ocean will freeze over

amazing how many people (in general) don't know the difference b/w Freezing rain, sleet and hail

Like knowing how to crop a photo?

Given the amount of snow on the ground I think I might even prefer a moderate snowstorm to whiten the snow vs a blizzard. While a blizzard on top of what we have would give historic amounts on the ground it would also be totally exhausting.

GEFS didn't either... That airmass is no damn joke Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

The NAM still insists I got snow on 1/18.

Everything trended West/slower with the last storm, so not entirely unreasonable to expect

Fair enough. But OTS is the bigger concern imo. And has been since this started looking like dog shit up here.

It is more consolidated which is what we would expect. At this range I think they tend to follow the op