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So a 498 TPV would not cause extreme cold. You forget the past but that's ok

Getting to the time of the year where you need solid arctic air-January you can get away with marginal cold

that was a big opportunity missed. Just a day later…

yeah, but you’re not getting a snowstorm with that air mass. I mean, let’s be real here.

You serious Clark? Shit Scooter we need a new term for you. Every six hours I change my mind. E6HICMM Lol at op plus ten temp but that's not what you said After any snow the euro op puts Tip in front of Fox Hall in a Speedo.

Might've been 1985. There was a giant Arctic high that encompassed nearly the whole country. Fort Kent, where we lived then, was at the east edge of the high and avoided record cold but never warmed up - January never got above 22F, but the coldest was a modest -23. Only the very AN Jan 1983 failed to get colder. In the other 8 winters we lived there, January's bottoms ranged from -30 to -47. 1981-82 had 185.8" total snowfall but had only 2 events with 12"+, 15.5" in Dec 19-20 and 17" in the April blizzard. January's coldest that year was -34 on the 18th, which came with winds 25-35 (WCI -101 on the old chart, about -70 in the new) and visibility of 3 miles in very light snow. Got all the way up to -14 that afternoon. Northern Maine can't compete with northern MN, but Jan '82's temp was 9/-12, only Jan 1994 was colder. (We'd moved to southern Maine in late 1985, and '94 there was quite cold, too.)

Colder and snowier N of the PA turnpike.

I keep telling you all, I rescheduled my appointment that got canceled from snowcrete to the 24th. It will happen....

CTP has killed off any storm chances Sunday. They posted on Fb a few minutes ago: It looks likely it will be a mostly cloudy weekend. Temps will continue to moderate some into the weekend with highs on Sunday expected to be in the 40s over central PA. Precipitation chances look overall low for Sunday, but some isolated rain or flurries could occur. #PAwx

Not really The super fine lines, thread the needle, yadda yadda is the formula for 100 presentation which radically change every 6 hours.

Good news IMO, we are going back into a snowy period. If you go back and look at the records, we always had snow drought and mild years followed by snowy and cold periods.

https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/02/1166956 Definitely a bad situation in Toamasina, this sounds like Acapulco after Otis.

Icon shifted north

On this day in 1960, 6 to 20 inches of snow fell across the area. It kicked off the most incredible run of snow ever seen in Tennessee/Kentucky/SWVa/Western NC. It would continue for over a month. On February the 18th/19th 1960, the Plateau and SE Kentucky got another 10-18 inches. The Mid-State, who had received 6-10 on February 13th, got another 6-10 on the 18th. Far eastern areas missed out on that one mostly, but March was going to hit and hit hard.

I go away for 7 hours w/o internet access and all hell breaks loose, lol. It would be amazing if the AIFS ends up being right or close to it despite being on an island, although the Euro, GFS and now ICON are at least moving in that direction - I'd be ecstatic with 1-2" given the low expectations. NWS Philly wasn't buying the AIFS in its latest AFD... KEY MESSAGE 2...Low pressure moves through the Mid-Atlantic Sunday night through Monday, bringing some rain and snow to the area. Low pressure will track along the Gulf Coast states this weekend, emerging over the Southeast by Sunday evening. A warm front will extend out from this low, and overrunning precip will develop from south to north Sunday afternoon. The heaviest precipitation will impact the area Sunday night, tapering off Monday morning. The big question is going to be how far north the precipitation gets. 12Z/13 NAM pretty much has precipitation confined to Delmarva, while the 12Z/13 GFS is a bit farther north with heavier QPF in Delmarva, and precipitation as far north as into the Lehigh Valley. The 12Z/CMC is similar to the NAM in that it keeps the system south. In terms of p- type, generally looking at rain in Delmarva and extreme southern New Jersey, and snow along and north of the I-95 corridor. 12Z/ECMWF is similar to the GFS, and the 12Z ECMWF-AI remains an outlier producing Warning level snowfall across the region. Since it is an extreme outlier, will not factor the ECMWF-AI in the forecast. With precipitation amounts heavier in the southern portions of the area, generally expecting less than an inch of snow where snow falls, mostly Sunday night into Monday morning.

Around the 20th on the AI ENS- Miller B-ish like the GEFS. Its all about the NA. The signal for the 24th is weaker, but there. Expected given how far out that window is. We got some chances before March, and probably beyond- The key features are a WPO ridge and a favorable NA.

A dusting possible from a weak shortwave passing through overnight 3 to 5 am. Carry on.

I would not be surprised if out of Knoxville’s 10 biggest snowstorms, 3/4 of those had temperatures in the 60s or 70s within a week before the storm. I bet a lot of our biggest snows in or around Knoxville had a above average temperatures for the season .

I know its the icon but you can see the slow steps towards the Euro camp

wasn't that cold spell that the "freezer bowl" was played in, in Cincinnati? I remember that winter being really cold, but don't remember a lot of snow until April vacation from school when we got a good 12-18"...

18z icon looks close to its 6z run so far

This site is now offering WeatherNext 2 for free. It's not totally functional yet (you can only get MSLP, 6 hour precip, and 2m temps) but still worth keeping an eye on: https://aguacerowx.com/app

There is a bit of a signal on the AIFS ENS. Mostly north but still way out there obviously.

Trying to remember the last time we had such prolonged snow cover. My best guess would be 2013-14.

https://x.com/i/status/2022373616709472738