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0z 12K Nam ramping up the qpf again

Huge positive difference with the northern stream compared to past runs and confluence moving out faster.

Don’t forget warm grounds, recently warmer temperatures, and the increased sun angle will cut these snow totals in half.

LVIA is at 31 or something season to date. LVIA only recorded 11.8 last storm (which I think was skewed but whatever) .

The 21z ARW wipes SE MA and the Cape off the map.

NAM looks a little amped so far.

I feel like it’s been a while since we had a system eject from the 4 corners region out west. I vaguely remember data sampling issues with those systems.

That snow line is essentially I-90 Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

WB 0Z HRRR at HR 48 compared to 18Z GFS and 18Z EURO at 54.

I don't give a rat's ass about the NAM until tomorrow night

Narrow is right. It's not as simple as simply coastal vs. norlun/inverted trough though. Even a partial tuck will result in a lot stronger convergence into the trough and much better moisture feed. So the "in between" solution is significant rain to snow along and on the north side of the surface trough. Of course, if we're really fortunate enough to get a coastal (still pretty skeptical on a full capture), then we're dealing with another beast entirely. BL temps are pretty poor starting out, so expect to have to waste a considerable amount of liquid getting that fixed. The stronger the lift and/or low, the faster that gets fixed.

The WSO is actively used to determine the need for watches across the CONUS. Obviously if the probabilities continue to go up, the more the WPC super ensembles would suggest the potential need for watches given the higher probabilistic odds for a warning-level event. But this is not the end-all-be-all for watch decision making.

Bwahaha I take back everything bad I've ever said about AI.

When we get 37”, I’ll be stuck at home until after my scheduled presentation on Wednesday.

To many runs and to many models to compare.

HRRR doing HRRR things…-80 dews aloft Trying to spit sleet into S NH with a snow column Modeled snowfall

Hopeful Lots of positive signs tonight

SS looks more amped on the NAM

Can’t wait for the “I’m at 42° at 3 pm posts”

Eh, I think I'd prefer they go to 06z/18z.

Worth noting this is an experimental product that is based off the WPC's 61 member Super Ensemble. It is a tool to gauge the the potential for a warning level event. No one actively adjusts these up or down to create a forecast. It is a tool, just like so many others to use. It is also worth mentioning this product is not using new EPS data yet. The screen shot here was the most recent run after 21Z. The latest update should be posted within the next half hour or so.

Thread would be/will be a disaster with posts lamenting about white rain and warm temps Sunday afternoon.

NAM looks better so far

Where do I sign