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Page hits...give it a few more hours and they will have Jim Cantore interviewing Noah with the ark in the background...

Yes sir…you’ve really been swamped down that way…and we’ve been very soaked up this way too(although not as bad as your area), so this rain coming if it gets excessive will cause problems. As you said…ground is saturated here too.

This will have a subtropical core. So a hybrid system. For coordination and awareness purposes this should probably get a name like they sometimes do with subtropical storms.

6z Euro definitely an issue with winds, particularly for the coast

Had another frosty car and lawn this morning.

If that 6-10 inch rainfall area on the GFS And RGEM verifies we're going to have some serious issues-ground is saturated here from all the prior rains

I don't see Don downplaying it at all. He's said uncertainty exists. That was 12 hours ago. I think if the 12z suites all come in where they've been overnight, the uncertainty will disappear. NOAA hugging the GFS is new to me, but we'll see what they do. I think by 1 PM today, they'll hoist Gale and HWW for Long Island, not just the coastal waters. I think they'll also start flood watches beginning tomorrow at 8 pm for the area as well.

Mins

This from the 0Z Euro suite per pro met@vortex95shows a 70-80% chance for tropical development! How do you explain this?

We all so deserve a true tempest like this with all of the boredom and no active weather over the last few years .

SW Suffolk could use some. Things have dried out considerably since the last rain event. Wind is not helping

The weather channel app on my phone showing over 4” of rain here now. Was showing 2.5” previously. That’s a lot of rain.

The wind aspect inland is still quite challenging. Coast should gust 50-60+ mph but inland its a bit more complicated (as always). Winds not far off the deck are quite strong and even if inverted a bit, it might not take much to bring some stronger gusts down. One potential thing to watch though is when the core of the strongest LLJ arrives...very possible this happen overnight which will make it a bit more difficult to tap into it. But if we can sustained a period of 50-60+ gusts inland there certainly will be some issues

Whats the track on the 6z Euro Op?

Yup…was just thinking about the parking thing.

The Euro and NAM keep the 10”+ maxes offshore due to the loop back west occurring further to the south. So the exact track will make a big difference here. But all the guidance is saying the same thing just with different tracks.

Falling trees might staisfy some people in this sub, 2 weeks ago it was all doom and gloom.

Nobody should want more rain now

Absolutely. Talking full blow downs . Firewood guys need the work !

Completed a bucket list wish of mine yesterday that was only possible if things aligned together perfectly - I attended 2 MLB games in 2 cities in 2 separate states on the same day. I was in Baltimore to watch the Orioles beat Toronto at 12:35pm, got in my car and drove to Philly to see the Brewers beat the Phils last evening at 6:40pm. Finished the year seeing 37 games across 5 different venues.

It’s not warm core and anyone that says it is is just hyping. Warm core cyclones don’t behave like this.

Much needed rains over MN right now. Chilly across NE MN again with 30's n 40's. But, the avg temps are steadily dropping each day, so these readings are a little closer to avg now. DLH 64/44, Hibbing 62/37, I-Falls 63/39 as of today.

52 and drizzle at the house this morning. Certainly feels like Fall out there!

Would be another disaster around here if we get 6-10 inches of rain...ground is saturated