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My honest opinion that he exagerates some of this stuff moving forwards, but to be fair to him, the jury is still out.

Yeah, aside from the cool shot next week, looks like we become very warm through mid month, and then transient cool and warm for rest of November. Once again, akin to November 2024 and November 2023, lack of snow cover and cold across Canada and northern tier is making it harder for late fall and early winter to be cold and wintry for most of us. There have been plenty of years where we didn't have cold and winter weather in the early season, but up north or out west, they did. Past 2 years have been pretty much void of late fall/early winter cold and snow across most of CONUS and Canada. I'd expect the models to correct a bit warmer due to this.

Hoping @vortex95swoops in later today and assures that everything still on track from his post yesterday

I will let the admins know....as usual it may take a day or two.

Was that widespread?

Similar on PAC side but 25-26 forecast has more Atlantic blocking. Last year Euro had blocking too far west & totally missed Atlantic side blocking

I want for him to be wrong too but unfortunately the laws of physics and reality couldn’t care less about what we want.

We had no power and lots of damage here from that.

That was a derecho

Thoughts on this from anyone? Perhaps there is now a Euro mid-range high QPF/warmth bias that erodes as we close on events this winter?

If accumulating snow looks possible for Monday out in Canaan, I might have to head out Sunday and hit up Stumptown Ales. I wonder if @jonjon has sold it yet. He was talking about moving to Berlin, I think.

Odds are the strat would only save New England for he second half, not the mid atl.

January was much cooler but Feb was slightly warmer lol

What is the Oct 2020 event BOX is talking about? Severe and wind .. no recollection

Could be quite the impressive temp drop between Sunday night and Monday morning, from 70 to wind chills in the low to mid 20s

It's still going to get quite windy tonight and there is still the risk of localized wind damage if an organized convective line can develop to our west today and maintain as it crosses the region tonight. But for a good 4-5 hours overnight it will still be very windy. There will still be some trees/limbs that come down and there will be some power outages.

operational supports its ensemble, and temperatures were quite chilly (around freezing, even in dc), meaning that snow might stick lol!

I agree. There’d be nothing bad about “front-loaded”. A “front-loaded” near normal DJF averaged out with colder than normal Dec-Jan 15th/warmer than normal Jan 16th-Feb would be much better than a “no-loaded” warmer than normal DJF. And Febs have been mild for awhile when averaged out (though with variations year to year) regardless…so mild Feb kind of expected in La Niña.

Yesterday’s video was great. It seems like the cold risks late month are increasing as long as the Pacific cooperates. Either way, I’m glad we’re back to serious discussions before Veterans Day. That’s a rarity of late.

Could be a fun 12z suite today. The high country and foothills of eastern TN seem to be locked in to a healthy NW flow event, but if that energy at the base of the trough can slow down a smidge and gain some negative tilt, many more of us are at least going to get some token/mood flakes east of the mountains.

Yeah. I suspect the new forecast came in cooler thanks to what is showing up in the extended forecasts for December. Unless we get lucky with the strat as you said, the Niña totally collapses into something like a weak Niño, or just plain luck, I'm already brushing up on my 4-letter word vocabulary for February.

I think January will have a considerable period of +TNH, but likely outweighted by a Pac jet dominated torch prior.

Awesome. Looks like we are only going to be in the 6th circle of hell rather than the 8th.