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November thread? Glad you got it, was my target zone you and Pete MRG

@John1122 is definitely on the money with the 0z GFS not even getting to phase 8. I "think" that GFS plot is hopefully an outlier. But....definitely something to keep an eye on, and as always, a very keen observation from John to spot that. I "think" the 12z GFS began to correct that. I would take the GMON above and shift that stall to the phase 7/8 border. If it was January, I would be far more concerned w/ the faster rotation into 6. But really, I am always concerned it rotates back into 6 - even if it wasn't showing it! I wonder when/if the SSW begins to show at the end of deterministic runs. By the end of next week, we may start to see that influence at the end of those deterministic runs.

We rip! Ground whitened

And just to add to this, if (IF) the GEFS is correct that a +EPO/Alaskan vortex pattern takes shape the 2nd week of December, it makes perfect sense that there will still be cold in the CONUS and Canada at that point. It’s not a light switch flip to immediate warmth, that would come later. A +EPO would cut off cross-polar flow and the Pacific floodgates would open. It would take some time for all the cold to get scoured out of Canada and the CONUS but it would happen, again, assuming the GEFS has the right idea @donsutherland1

Some decent blowing snow here now

Gonna be funny with SE Michigan with an advisory and Toledo under a Winter Storm Warning,

I should add that climatology kind of doesn't like snow during early December in the valleys. But during the last 15 years, it has allowed for it. Anyway, this was the GMON from yesterday. 22 days in phase 8!

Oh man have to behave don't want to give Baby Scoots a bad impression

Let the snow fall as much as it would like in December!

I have no idea on that Algo but it melts snow as it falls if surface temp is above 32 even if the actual surfaces are well below feezing

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

Nah, advisory.

Some nice fake snow today. I'm liking the look of some of those clown maps too.

I didn’t check the low, but the top layer of ground was frozen.

I look at them more as where snow is likely to accumulate vs the actual amount of snow

We tracked them last 2 winters. Worse than clowns.

Looks like the 12z EPS is west of the 06z run and juicier.

Pretty good 12z run from the 12z GDPS para and 12z Euro(Dr No?!)....

Wait baby Scooter?. Oh man now I have to behave , fuck

I think they have some value

A lot of faith in Glen Plake... but he still rocks so Bob does too

I feel like I've been asleep at the wheel, just getting caught up on the upcoming threats. It was nice to have a cold / snowy Thanksgiving. Looking forward to tracking with everyone this season.

Those piece of shit (POS)positive snow depths are more worthless than clowns

If December ain’t rockin’, don’t come a knockin’

So close yet so far