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I think we will get one more 25-50 mile move on consensus with this. Where it’s another NE or SW, idk it can go either way. Obviously in this forum we want a good bump NE

Definitely

I was just looking at the RRFS...that and the 3km are like what event lol. I guess thankfully we are a bit out of the time range for the mesos but I think they should yield some degree of concern. They both sort of hint at the potential for basically a narrow band of precip and that is it. I'd have to hedge them being underdone in terms of precipitation but they may have the right idea on the narrowness of the heavy snow.

That's more like it...

Nails NYC. 8-12 inches lol

chances of this happening are like 10%

3km and rrfs are just lost .. no precip north of Trenton

Here's that model's 18z run:

Icon has been taking this away from us up here for like 5 cycles now and it finally finished the job. See ya

I'd rather not freezing rain but given I'm in the valley, a cold rain despite CAD usually occurring wouldn't surprise me. Nor would the screw zone.

Id take global guidance at this time until about tomorrow this time. Than we pay attention to Rgem, Nam, HRRR, etc.

Before I get busy tomorrow, I wanted to wish all of you a Merry Christmas! I hope everyone put a miller b and a 1035 high in Upstate NY on their list for Santa

Dafuq is the NAM smoking? Frozen still happening Sunday AM now.

ATL seems to have missed 79 but I would imagine they beat it easily either tomorrow or on the 27th more likely based on temps aloft. 84-85 is reachable on the 27th I think

Icon looks good lol

This is going to be a nightmare right up until go time

It never fails.We get somewhat of a model consensus, watches go up, and then one model craps the bed

44 here today.

Wasn't there a really wonky model run earlier that showed this i forget what it name was.

I’ll be up all night monitoring the sleet line near Philly

Tons of sleet and a narrow area kf snow perhaps.

Nope, all around me, not here

Phily could actually get porked with sleet lol. that mlvl dry push may seriously screw with things. I have no clue what to take on it. I feel like it won't be an issue because it will be trailing the precip shield but I suppose some of that drier air could get entrained and it screws the whole process up. Maybe that's what the 3km is doing? Kind of hard to tell...not much for products available on the 3km

Significant ZR is confined to mostly western PA per the latest NAM .

We really need to see the RRFSOPQXYZ ensembles. I hear there are 26 members!!