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The low SST’s this year should make for a tantalizingly miserable April for some folks. Bwah ha ha…

Speaking of investing your time wisely, all of those words boil down to this: Long-range forecasting is valuable for identifying threat windows in advance, but it’s useless for details, making you dumb to expect day 10+ guidance to behave like a near-term forecast.

It does almost every year....the question is are we going to keep the continuous winter train going or is the ride mostly over and then we're just mixing in stat padders in March/April. Could go either way....some years like this died a slow death in late Feb/early Mar (like 2011)....while others went gangbusters (2001)....some gave us faux spring and then went gangbusters back to winter afterward (2017 and 2018 both did this)

I'll take the under on anything with alot of QPF

Skynets and ensembles only beyond four days.

Said yes at 0Z - will it change again with updated fresh data ? 0Z runs get the full load of data - interesting that the Canadian has been close to consistent with the phasing and more intense storm for a few days now

The last two years it has snowed in March and April, just saying Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

Depends on expectations... if you want some 2 week stretch of deep winter with snowcover...no but how often do we get that even in mid winter? not much. But we've had several March's recently that had significant snowfall, especially the further NW of 95 you go. 2005 we had a 4-8" storm across the area the first week of March 2009 there was a storm early March that some places SE of 95 got 10", up here I got about 6" 2013 places NW of 95 got a 6-10" snow early march 2014: 3 snow events...2 of them were pretty significant especially for VA 2015: a 6-12" snowfall across the area in early March 2017: the sleet storm 2-3" of sleet across much of the area, had about 8" up here 2018: a couple minor 1-2" snows and then the 4-8" storm March 20th, had 15" up here 2019: not sure what baltimore had but I got 3 snow events that totaled about 10" up here the first week of March. 2022: I got a 6" snowstorm in March, can't remember what Baltimore area had but it might have missed there That seems to be a pretty decent hit rate considering no one period has a ton of snow because our climo sucks! But early march is as good as any period except maybe Jan 20-Feb 10th. Yea that is our golden window...but outside that...the first 10 days of March are as good as say anytime before or after Jan 20-Feb10th imo for just getting snow. I think some let the fact the winter is about to end and it's depressing affect it. They get to the point where they just want to move on because they are frustrated.

You are constantly harping on this. Sure, the overwhelming majority of MECS and HECS have occurred before Feb 20th but to say there been little in the way of any snow during the last 1/3 of February is simply not true. Your own words are "very, very few snowfalls of any kind those two weeks". You couldn't be more wrong and I'm not trying to be nasty. Please provide data or do some research before making such a bold statement. I'm only calling you out on this because you make reference to it quite often. Just take the last 40 years. 1986,1987,1993,2003,2005,2007,2014,2015,2021 all saw events and some of those years were quite snowy periods. There were many years with close misses that still yielded some snow for certain parts of the region or had significant storms the first few day of March such as 1984,1994,1996,1999,2009,2011,2017 and 2019. My set of years are based from Feb 20th through March 1st. If you include the full last 2 week of February like you did in your post then your position worsens greatly. 2013 got a little snowy for NW and of course the epic fail the first week in March. This isn't even including countless C-2/3 inch events not even worth mentioning.

The question is if we can continue this slow pack build up or if we start getting some rainers mixed in.....I do think we'll definitely see additional snow events. But if we pseudo-cutter next week and have these seasonably milder days mixed in, then you start melting back the icy grip winter has had on us....whereas if we only do a little bit of maintenance melting, and then smash an arctic high in front of next week's system and turn into a beefy cold SWFE, then it feels like winter is still in full swing....two somewhat different paths that we aren't sure on yet.

He cried when I showed him the euro bust.

Dr. No says no again.

heh... anyone and everyone east of the Hudson suffers this godforsaken spring region. sorry - no special treatment of empathy conferred.

Never heard of that. We had a low of 54 and ended with .17" of rain. Nothing left but dirty piles of snow in parking lots.

"If I can just get Will to agree with the model that ups the d-drip dosage - "

9 hours ago you were showing your baby the Euro, like a proud papa. What happened.

Just in case, skis 25" knees 26" shoulders 27" not visible 28" + ???

Ya, It’s certainly not over. There will be more opportunities for winter weather.

Was just out having a smoke and there is some graupel coming out the clouds! 38F

Got 5.25” overnight and it’s been hammering upslope snow lately. Mountain visibility is under 1/4sm in heavy snow. Flake size much bigger than last night’s 10:1 synoptic dump. Even down in the valley is solid 1/2sm moderate snow. Upslope flow is parked for now. KMVL 111954Z AUTO 35007KT 1/2SM SN VV009 M04/M07

East of the mountains can be another world regarding snowfall. I well understand that fact. Here in the Valley, some of our greatest snowstorms have been in March. March of 1960 produced 26 inches. March of 1962 dumped 38 inches. March of 1993 produced 19 inches.

Telling Will which model to use

It is funny how and CTP is bad with wind lately. Forecast is for 24 mph winds while it’s gusting 38 mph.

I think it's simply a misunderstanding and always has been. I always knew that anything you look at 10-15 days away is very volatile, likely to change some, and details are impossible to glean. But knowing something and behaving accordingly are two different things! When there was nothing to look at within 5 days I would often waste too much time wanting something at day 10 to mean more than it does. Now... I do something else. Invest my time more wisely. However, I do still think there is value in long range forecasting. Look at this PD threat. It's not likely to end up snow BUT its close and the idea of this possible storm was hinted at from day 15 on. Thats valuable. We saw this general setup if you knew how to look at the data and analyze what it was hinting at. The specifics that will determine whether we actually get snow...the EXACT track of the storm and exactly how cold it is...won't be known until its closer...even now it's unknown...but the general setup was picked out way in advance. We saw the snow/ice storm we got Jan 25 from 2 weeks out...the general threat of it anyways. The details weren't known until later. So it depends what your expectations are. IF you expect to see details (like being able to make a specific forecast and saying we're going to get 6" of snow) from 10-15 days away then no...its not useful at all for that. But can the long range guidance suggest possible storm threats from that range yes...as long as it's understood it's just a general threat window not a specific forecast.

Think he meant Charlottetown.