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CON has a -37° in Jan 57.

Weak ass waves are the GFS speciality. It’s locked in.

1857 must have surprised and perhaps shocked people, it went from brutal cold all through January (which had also been the case in Jan 1856 and Feb 1855) and it stayed cold a few days into February, then it turned right around and went to the other extreme. I think I read about severe ice-jam flooding in CT and MA around mid-February. There was heavy rain and temperatures in the low 60s (after the record cold 17th to 24th of January that included one heavy snowfall). The rest of that year was largely near record cold too.

These cold northerly winds are brutal on my house. They find every nook and cranny to get through. Just sealed up another window with that plastic sheething.

Month total precip 3.41".....snowfall 9.0" (difficult measurement, probably too conservative) Highest temp 61, lowest 5. Third straight January with above normal snowfall.

You just described my yard.

1857 was-50 in NH

25.4 for the high here down in the holler at the head of the now frozen creek . 23.5 at 5:30

I'll take a jump at it even though I'm entirely out of my depth. I think it does but I don't know how models handle it. Taking wind into account I believe it's about how much time an airmass spends over snowpack. I think there is even a scenario for the tri-cities if the wave is weak but not so weak you can't get decent QPF (need column cooling) AND it hits late like at 10pm instead of 6pm. All that said you can play everything right on the ground and get screwed between the dgz and near surface. Getting Knoxville in would probably involve more pressure over the great lakes tomorrow. There is a low in Ontario that might be messing with the upper levels inviting marginal thermals from the south central US. We also would benefit if the high over the Dakotas tomorrow was a bit stronger or quicker to reach Minnesota or ideally Iowa. Short of all that you could maybe hope for a kink in the upper levels later in the night, say wednesday morning that ran up behind the main wave like a really really weak app runner instead of a slider. I think this small event is more controlled by latitude than anything wherever that 540 line turns neutral I reckon and I think that's over me up here per model indication.

yeah, it would. Where are you seeing 35 or 40°?

Updated PNS: 083 NOUS42 KMHX 011814 PNSMHX NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205-020614- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 114 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026 ...Total SNOWFALL REPORTS Through Noon... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...North Carolina... ...Beaufort County... 1 ESE Bath 17.0 in 1043 AM 02/01 Public 1 ESE Bayview 15.0 in 0947 AM 02/01 Public 3 S Old Ford 13.5 in 1015 AM 02/01 Public 3 E Belhaven 13.0 in 0939 AM 02/01 Public 1 NNW Belhaven 13.0 in 0947 AM 02/01 Public 4 N Cox Crossing 13.0 in 1133 AM 02/01 Public 2 SW Long Acre VFD 11.9 in 0900 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter 1 SW Washington 11.0 in 0850 AM 02/01 Public 3 SSE Blounts Creek 11.0 in 0943 AM 02/01 Public 5 SW Aurora 11.0 in 1000 AM 02/01 Fire Dept/Rescue ...Carteret County... 1 SE Peletier 19.5 in 1004 AM 02/01 Public Cedar Point 0.9 WSW 16.0 in 0500 AM 02/01 COCORAHS 2 ENE Broad Creek 16.0 in 0631 AM 02/01 Public 1 SW Newport 15.2 in 0700 AM 02/01 Official NWS Obs Otway 15.0 in 0827 AM 02/01 Public 1 WSW Broad Creek 15.0 in 0900 AM 02/01 NWS Employee Beaufort 15.0 in 0900 AM 02/01 Public 2 SSE Newport 14.5 in 0944 AM 02/01 Public 2 ESE Stella 14.2 in 1140 AM 02/01 NWS Employee 2 E Stella 14.0 in 1055 AM 02/01 Public 1 WNW Harkers Island 14.0 in 1123 AM 02/01 Public 1 SSE North River 14.0 in 1140 AM 02/01 Public Cape Carteret 1.5 NE 13.6 in 0700 AM 02/01 COOP Morehead City 13.0 in 0456 AM 02/01 Public Morehead City 2.9 WNW 13.0 in 0750 AM 02/01 COCORAHS 1 S Otway 13.0 in 0923 AM 02/01 Public 1 E Harkers Island 13.0 in 1020 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter Morehead City 5.7 W 12.5 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS Emerald Isle 2.1 E 10.0 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS 1 W Mitchell Village 10.0 in 0800 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter 1 W North River 10.0 in 0845 AM 02/01 NWS Employee Beaufort 3.8 N 8.5 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS ...Craven County... James City 2.5 S 18.0 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS 4 E James City 17.5 in 1104 AM 02/01 Public New Bern 7.3 ESE 17.0 in 0730 AM 02/01 COCORAHS 5 SSE Minnesott Beach 16.0 in 1049 AM 02/01 Public Trent Woods 1.2 ENE 15.5 in 0600 AM 02/01 COCORAHS 1 S New Bern 15.0 in 0918 AM 02/01 Public Bridgeton 14.2 in 0909 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter 1 ENE Trent Woods 14.0 in 0629 AM 02/01 Public 3 NNW Riverdale 14.0 in 0804 AM 02/01 Public Vanceboro 14.0 in 1120 AM 02/01 Public 1 SE Riverdale 13.5 in 0952 AM 02/01 Public 2 NNW Riverdale 13.5 in 1050 AM 02/01 Public New Bern 1.3 NNE 13.0 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS Trent Woods 1.3 WNW 13.0 in 0725 AM 02/01 COCORAHS 1 WNW Coastal Carolina Regio 12.5 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS Havelock 1.9 SSE 12.2 in 0800 AM 02/01 COCORAHS ...Dare County... 1 SSW Southern Shores 11.0 in 0730 AM 02/01 COCORAHS Duck 7.0 in 0730 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter 1 SSE Wright Brothers Nation 6.0 in 0929 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter Wanchese 2.8 in 0730 AM 02/01 COCORAHS Frisco 2.0 in 1140 AM 02/01 Public ...Duplin County... Beulaville 13.0 in 0700 AM 02/01 Broadcast Media Potters Hill 12.0 in 0823 AM 02/01 Public 1 WNW Albertson 12.0 in 0925 AM 02/01 Broadcast Media Potters Hill 12.0 in 0942 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter Wallace 14.8 E 11.0 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS Faison 3.3 SSE 11.0 in 0900 AM 02/01 COCORAHS 1 E Rose Hill 10.0 in 1044 AM 02/01 Public Rose Hill 10.0 in 1135 AM 02/01 Public Magnolia 7.0 in 0715 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter ...Hyde County... Scranton 5.6 SW 12.0 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS Sladesville 12.0 in 0957 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter Ocracoke 0.2 ESE 3.0 in 0800 AM 02/01 COCORAHS ...Jones County... Trenton 16.5 in 0706 AM 02/01 Public Trenton 15.0 in 0839 AM 02/01 Broadcast Media Wise Forks 13.0 in 0930 AM 02/01 Public ...Lenoir County... Pink Hill 16.0 in 0648 AM 02/01 Public Kinston 5.1 WNW 15.0 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS Kinston 14.0 in 0703 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter 4 ENE Sandy Bottom 13.5 in 0728 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter 1 NE Kinston 13.0 in 0820 AM 02/01 Kinston 4.6 ESE 11.5 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS La Grange 5.5 NE 10.5 in 0720 AM 02/01 COCORAHS Pink Hill 2.5 NE 10.0 in 0810 AM 02/01 COCORAHS ...Martin County... 3 W Williamston 13.0 in 0951 AM 02/01 Public Williamston 9.5 in 0741 AM 02/01 Public Williamston 8.9 SSE 6.5 in 0741 AM 02/01 COCORAHS ...Onslow County... Swansboro 17.0 in 0718 AM 02/01 Public 2 NW Hammocks Beach State Pa 16.0 in 0730 AM 02/01 Public 3 S Silverdale 16.0 in 0900 AM 02/01 NWS Employee Half Moon 14.0 in 0922 AM 02/01 Public 1 SSW Holly Ridge 13.0 in 0646 AM 02/01 Public 2 NW Midway Park 13.0 in 0720 AM 02/01 Public Jacksonville 3.3 W 13.0 in 0800 AM 02/01 COCORAHS 3 NW Half Moon 13.0 in 1021 AM 02/01 Public 1 S Camp Lejeune Center 13.0 in 1121 AM 02/01 Public Holly Ridge 3.7 E 12.5 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS Richlands 12.5 in 1119 AM 02/01 Public 4 SE Cypress Creek 12.5 in 1201 PM 02/01 Trained Spotter 2 SE Jacksonville 12.3 in 0630 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter 2 SSE Pumpkin Center 12.0 in 0907 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter Kellum 11.0 in 0700 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter ...Pamlico County... Reelsboro 19.0 in 0727 AM 02/01 Public Grantsboro 18.0 in 0639 AM 02/01 Public 1 SE Minnesott Beach 17.0 in 0631 AM 02/01 Public Bayboro 14.0 in 0728 AM 02/01 Public Bayboro 3 SW 13.0 in 0700 AM 02/01 COOP Merritt 1.5 WSW 13.0 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS ...Pitt County... 4 WSW Greenville 15.0 in 0830 AM 02/01 Public 4 WNW Falkland 14.0 in 0956 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter Grifton 13.5 in 0923 AM 02/01 Public 1 W Shelmerdine 12.5 in 0730 AM 02/01 Public 1 SE Winterville 12.2 in 0900 AM 02/01 Public 1 SE Winterville 12.1 in 0921 AM 02/01 Public Greenville 5.7 NW 12.0 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS 1 S Dowdy Ficklen Stadium 12.0 in 0729 AM 02/01 Public Farmville 0.8 ESE 11.7 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS 1 NNE Bell Arthur 11.5 in 0755 AM 02/01 Public 1 N Ayden 11.0 in 0912 AM 02/01 Greenville 5.0 SE 10.5 in 0800 AM 02/01 COCORAHS 2 N Winterville 10.0 in 1031 AM 02/01 Public 4 SE Winterville 9.0 in 0914 AM 02/01 Public 2 NNE Winterville 7.5 in 1025 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter ...Tyrrell County... Gum Neck (COOP) 16.1 in 0700 AM 02/01 COOP Columbia 4.9 W 11.0 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS 1 NNW Alligator 10.0 in 0554 AM 02/01 Public &&

I doubt most Wake people will be on for some time knowing there is no shot at any kind of big make up storm this year as there is no way another one that big would happen in the same winter. I am guessing the next shot will be sometime in the 2030's. I am particularly thinking of the Fuquay-Varina folks.

AIgfs also hinting at the storm 14-16 timeframe and looks cold The 10/11th models insist is rain

Enjoy

That event was really cool, in what was a remarkably snowy March in an amazing winter!! (I got 5.3" on March 2, 8.0" for that St. Pat's snow, another 3" on the 25th, and even a couple tenths right near the end of the month on the backside of some rain).

Roaring winds aloft there over the weekend. Only thing that could limit things some is the cold is shallow and it ends up inverted aloft.

It may hold down surface temps slightly but in the atmosphere is where the temps will cause it to rain.

This winter feels much better than last year. But my location hasn't been lucky snow-wise since 2021

The January 24-February 1 period has had a mean temperature of 16.9°. That is the coldest nine-day period since December 30, 2017-January 7, 2018 when the nine-day average temperature was 16.6°. Temperatures should begin to moderate tomorrow through Wednesday. One or two days could briefly rise to or above freezing. A few flurries are possible on Wednesday as a weak system brings a cold front across the region. Colder air should return on Thursday. A even stronger surge of Arctic air could arrive for the weekend, possibly accompanied by some snow flurries or snow showers. Overall, January 20th-February 3rd will likely be the coldest and perhaps snowiest two-week period this winter. The forecast WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern is typically the coldest pattern in January and among the coldest during the first half of February. A persistently positive PNA will have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. For perspective, the coldest two-week period this winter prior to January 20th was January 3-16, 2026 and January 4-17, 2026 with a mean temperature of 30.3°. The snowiest two-week period was December 14-27, 2025 when 7.2" of snow fell. Already, snowfall since January 20th has surpassed that figure. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +26.51 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.273 today.

Aye, yes, that would be lovely

Just enough to cover the dog poo piles, yellow patches, and all my bird food shells all over my yard lol. LFG!!!!!!!

Just like last winter. We’ve gotten a lot luckier with the few setups we’ve had but there are a lot of similarities.

I remember you said the same thing leading up to NYE and we all ended up 2-5”. It’ll be a few inches of WAA snows Friday night . And then we’ll see if there’s squalls with front

I don't know if winter will be over after this upcoming warm up, but it's unlikely to return to anything remotely like we've had this week with the cold and ice/snow being able to stick around. The Euro doesn't even go below freezing from the 9th to the 16th here. It's head faked warm ups a couple times this year already, but often when the Pacific breaks down in February and a big warm up hits, it lasts so long that we are in March before it relents.

A severe cold spell you may not know about happened in Feb 1855. Caswell's weather diary from Providence RI states that on 6th and 7th, mins were -14F and -15F with max barely above zero. Then on 8th-9th 12.5" of snow fell at his location (within walking distance of Brown University where he was a professor). At that same time, Toronto had lows of -25F (on 5th and 6th) and daytime highs below zero (-6F on 6th). Caswell's diary runs from late 1831 to early 1860 with very few interruptions. The winter weather from 1854 to 1857 was exceptionally cold and snowy, an even colder version of 2013-16 for snowstorms of note. I don't know of any other N American data from 1855, sure there would be some though. Feb 1855 was also very cold in Britain, their third coldest February of 367 years of record (mean -1.7 C) ... only 1895 and 1947 were colder. The coldest part of the month in Britain happened mid-month to 20th.