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It's fascinating that the NWS Philly is still hugging the NBM (model blend), below, which is an outrageously snowy outlier right now (as is the NWS-Boston), but not the NWS-NYC, which is favoring the rest of the models showing little to no snow outside of eastern LI. See the discussions below from the NWS-Philly and NYC. I think the NBM can be a good tool, but it is time lagged (it includes current and previous runs of over a dozen models), which is good for not bouncing all over the place, but I don't understand relying on it when it's this much of an outlier.Area Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 531 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026 Deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to show the potential of some sort of system developing off the Mid-Atlantic coast next weekend. The latest deterministic models are trending towards a coastal scraper, with direct hits along the shore and Delmarva, while the Poconos and nearby locales are spared completely. In terms of probabilities and potential impacts....the latest NBM has 24 hour probabilities of snowfall > 4 inches around 20 to 25 percent north and western zones, around 40 percent I-95 corridor, near 50 percent immediate coast. In terms of timing, if this storm affects us it could arrive as early as late day Saturday and then last through Sunday. It should also be noted that this storm may have significant winds with it such that even if the center of the storm tracks well offshore, coastal areas could still have strong winds.Area Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New York NY 632 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 Regarding the potential for a coastal storm for this upcoming weekend, if any impacts were to occur it appears that the timing would be late Saturday night and into Sunday, and possibly Sunday evening for some eastern sections. Most of the dynamic modeling continues to show the storm being the nearest of misses, or, with the NYC metro not experiencing any snow impacts. The longwave pattern does amplify, but the mean eastern trough also begins to progress east while amplifying. A good rule of thumb is whether the 500 mb vorticity maximum or the 850 mb low gets north / south of Cape Hatteras. Just about all the dynamic and AI modeling has the vort max / 500 mb low going just south of Cape Hatteras. Climatologically that is a miss with respect to big snow for our area. In some cases far eastern areas get brushed. Therefore, at this point in the modeling / forecast process the most likely scenario is the nearest of misses. However, some impacts cannot be completely ruled out, especially further east as there remains some room for the modeling to wobble slightly further west which would bring eastern portions of the region in play for some minor to moderate impacts. Some coastal impacts remain a possibility in terms of minor coastal flooding. Stay tuned to subsequent forecasts for any changes.

NWS GSP chat says they will upgraded to a warning this afternoon.

It seems like parts of LI have done well this winter. NJ, with the possible exception of right along the NY border, has had a lot of sleet during both bigger events. It's definitely been a much better winter than the past few with lots of minor events and one major. But out this way it still feels like we're waiting for something to break right.

But don’t forget the messenger ticks. You need some leeway for those so these next two runs are really important. Fingers crossed!

Yes crazy gradient around here

Yea I mentioned in the main thread about how everyone was tossing the 18z nam yesterday because it looked wonky. Im not one to believe the accuracy of the long range NAM, but if it starts spitting out different solutions that dont match up with globals, you at least have to pay attention to it.

Still seeing the graphics on rah NWS saying 6-13 range. Expect 8. Low end 3. High end17/19 for Raleigh

Very well-done. One minor adjustment I’d make would be to move “A” to encompass a *little* more of SE VA…as 3-7” seems a little too conservative for Norfolk, IMO.

I think the different audiences has to explain a lot of this, right? Brad P. has different considerations to make as a TV met. Huffman is probably just more free to speculate. Though I do still value how open Brad P. is in communicating his thoughts for someone in his position. I think that's the right way to do it (kinda like the ACC's new football review transparency).

Low of 3.

There has to be a few similar cases from 1970 through 1999 when is rarely snowed/had KUs. Especially the 70s which were cold. Have a hard time believing we didn't have a fast flow at times back then. Do not know if they even tracked it.

As I mentioned in my X post, the 12z runs will be the first to contain full data ingestion from direct sampling of the northern-stream energy. With that, I fully expect a tightening consensus amongst the guidance through the 00z cycle this afternoon and evening.

-9F at my house in the valley today, drive up 6 into RI and jumped up to 5F, crazy difference

In a discussion on X Allan said he didn’t see Raleigh getting under 2/3 but could easy be 8/10. We may have to be happy with these large range ideas and be prepared for anything. Can’t be too exact with this or greedy.

stuck with in hand out in arctic cold?

Funny, Nova Scotia isn't lamenting the gradient. I understand the concept of it, but it's an oversimplification IMHO.....I think the struggle to phase near the east coast is probably related to CC, but more so due to the impact that it's having on the tropical convection patterns as the west Pac has warmed disproportionately fast. The gradient saturation idea doesn't really work for me because storms are phasing, just not where we want them to.

Low of 10 here, still haven’t gone below that yet this season.

Slight changes early on with NAM wanting to dig some (we'll see where it goes).

Super Bowl Pete RePete same teams with a snowstorm lurking

Don't go there man. It is what it is. Plus, it's not too common to have back to back big Winter storms anyway. It's that same game every Winter. We're not suppose to see days and days of Snow, just not what is common for our winters around here( although it can happen yes ). The good news? February is still looking great for the possibility of storms as we have more cold air pumping in, so don't give up.

Hasn’t been seen or heard from in months

SREF looks good!

Google it to find discussions, @Picard. There are several ways. For example, round up towards zero, round down from zero, etc. Be consistent with whatever method is chosen.

What we’ve had work out so far are simpler setups that don’t rely on a bunch of factors working out. The super SWFE over the weekend-huge slug of moisture running into a high pressure dome. The two clippers in Dec, we were lucky to be in their path and they picked up some Atlantic moisture. We’re still in this rut where we can’t get anything more complex to happen because of too much interference. Love em or hate em (I still generally hate em), SWFEs are a lot simpler and more predictable several days out that don’t require complex phasing or other factors to work out.

Lets fuse Ditty’s eyelids open so he has to stay up for the overnight runs…