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Proceed with EXTREME caution using the Cansips

The issue is going to be that MCS in central PA, that's going to completely work over the atmosphere. The clouds should burn off by late morning, but that complex will arrive sometime between 1 and 2 on its current trajectory. Maybe a couple severe warnings but that's going to limit the severe for everyone. Even SPC isn't sure though as the best forcing doesn't arrive until way later. This day was always going to be about how the next MCS forms out west.

No 90s for Philly today. Tomorrow, different story. .

Edouard isn't moving away from the juiced environment fast enough, and unfortunately, the mesoscales are showing deep intense training cells over the same locations this afternoon and evening. Some of these feeders may back'build towards the GOM through the evening. Flooding is going to become a big problem.

The pattern foot with the -CGT summer synoptic has plagued now for 6 weeks .. and is striking hard locally. It's ultimately causing the deep flow to sag over SE Canada --> confluence, which in turn generates a stalled albeit weak ( but still stronger enough than the sub trop high, S) high pressure in the perfect location to bang us like a upstate NY rape shack. It's stealing what remains of our geriatric dying summer with this achronological BD stagnation shit we have going on - wedging in other words. It was 88/79 at several sites I observed around the S Great Lakes yesterday afternoon, a latitude that is essentially the same as Worcester Ma. And as that annotation above demos, this is not autumn - straw man argument - this is a location's bad luck with respect to the how the gears of the hemisphere put us in this resulting cool local anomaly. The models are attempting to break this down and introduce some late gasping attempt at heat, ...when the sun is gone ...

Severe Thunderstorm Watch up for Central and Southern PA until 2pm

I don't think the issue will be the mountains. Issue will be the atmosphere, its completely zapped from yesterday storms and with cloud cover its not going to get any better.

Barnegat/LBI

Yeah, nice little mesoscale system .

the low clouds marine layer once those storms over western PA encounter it they will not make it this far east

Could be interesting if this blob coming down survives the mountains. Couple tornado warned cells in there.

Meanwhile 90s from Philly SW and heat index over 100. Rather this than swamp filth.

Could be an interesting lunchtime should this blob of whatever coming of Lake Eire survives the mountains. Couple of tornado warned cells mixed in it.

Where is this drizzle coming from..sigh

@Stormchaserchuck1

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/histdata/ Its kind of a pain vs the others but at least it is still operational.

Tropical Storm Edouard has been spinning around in SE Texas since yesterday afternoon. Some radar rainfall estimate pixels approaching 16-18" now. The center has been drifting NNE for the past several hours. If it continues to head more north/east than the models were showing, I may end up getting some rain later today in Longview. Tyler has a better chance though. NWS SHV has mentioned the possibility of tornadoes but it's a pretty low chance, especially since we haven't really seen any signs of that yet.

A nocturnal training event would be great!

As mentioned in a previous post, we still need to watch that developing buzzsaw (Lowell) for a northward turn in a few days. Some of the globals have been flirting with Kauai every other operational run. It may ultimately miss to the west, but that may not be nailed down yet until we see how trough interaction evolves.

Looks like rain chances increase as the weekend approaches with cold front dropping down. I see GSP has dropped the possiblity for Heat Advisories outside the Mountains the rest of the work week. My high yesterday was 81.

Been a mostly fun year, minus the absolute heartbreaks in the 8th-9th innings. Is there a world where the keep Abrams, Wood, and even Lyle at this point long term? Minors have some decent pitching options in the next few years and Cavalli has proven to be a bonified 1/1A at the head of the rotation. Would be tough as a fan to continue to keep watching good young talent just keep walking out the door.

ready 2 mild

LWX AFD from this morning does also state severe storms are possible well into the night KEY MESSAGE 1...Daily severe weather threat through the end of the week. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms, some likely severe with damaging winds, are likely today through Friday as upper level disturbances move from the Great Lks into the Mid Atlantic states. Already seen a small cluster of thunderstorms over south central Pennsylvania that will move through the area later this morning. Two additional rounds of thunderstorms seem likely today, one this afternoon, and a second one late this evening into the overnight hours tonight into Thursday. Thunderstorms will ride southeast along and north of a backdoor front currently pushing south through northern VA and southern MD as seen on TDWRs and wind shifts to the NE at IAD and DCA a couple of hours ago. The severe threat will not be necessarily tied to the afternoon and evening hours as record warm nighttime temperatures and high humidity yield strong instability and keep thunderstorms going strong well into the overnight hours. By Friday, cold front should have cleared much of the forecast area causing a stabilizing effect limiting the risk of severe weather, but showers and thunderstorms will still be possible north of the sfc front.