All Activity

Looks like a lot of opportunities next week on the Euro, Several shots at some snow over a 7 day period.

Decent little squall that seems to be back building

Stacking pretty nicely. Let's keep it going!

Next week is interesting too on Euro for Dec 11-12.

Retired After Last Use December had begun on a strangely toasty note. The temperature had climbed to a balmy 57°, and the New York Public Library, perhaps out of nostalgia, perhaps out of quiet defiance, filled its marble halls with sepia-toned photographs of children tunneling through drifts taller than themselves. The exhibit captured an era that residents increasingly believed had slipped out of reach. A public weather notice board calling itself "American Weather" had given the display a name that struck Marisol, a student at Columbia University, as both melodramatic and heartbreaking: “The Final Snowfall.” Walking home after a full day of classes, Marisol passed one of Midtown’s newest absurdities: a synthetic snow dome where wealthy Manhattan parents paid $95 an hour to show their children what “winter” once felt like. She never stepped inside. Those plastic flakes felt like an insult. Her father had always said that snow gave New Yorkers a common language of spontaneous generosity. Cheap plastic could never measure up. Almost four years had passed since the last daily snowfall of four inches or more. Even two consecutive snow-starved years had never occurred before. Four such years were unimaginable. As Marisol passed one of American Weather’s public boards, a small sculpture beside it stopped her cold. There stood a dented aluminum snow shovel mounted upright like a relic. At its base, an engraved bronze plaque read, “Retired after last use: February 21, 1929.” She felt her throat tighten. "Snow is something you can only remember now," she thought. Then came the second thought. It was a much darker one, perhaps from having spent too much time reading "American Weather" on her way home from classes. "Soon there will be no one left who remembers at all," she worried. Her grief was premature. Just over two weeks later, a storm swept across the City, dropping 6.7" of snow on December 17 and another half-inch the following day. Less than two months after that, an even larger snowstorm buried Central Park beneath 10.0" of luminous white. Today marks the 1,405th consecutive day without a daily snowfall of four inches or more. Pessimism mixes with fatalism. Yet New York City has lived through snow droughts before, even as this one is the longest on record. As happened in December 1932, the streak will break. Eventually. Even with supercomputers, AI-driven forecasts, and models capable of simulating the atmosphere down to microphysical detail, the exact date of the next significant snowfall remains unknowable at this time. Patience is required. But so is confidence. December is now on course to register its coldest start in more than fifteen years. That's a hopeful start. The arrival of the cold reveals that Winter has not yet forgotten New York City.

Progress

What ratio would you advise using instead of Kuchera for this event

Just zooming out a bit from this event...there are a lot of potential small events in the pipeline. The 12z CMC is my "go to" at 12z. Though the 12z GFS is pretty loaded up with opportunities.

Another day of flurries, maybe a heavier squall in a bit, 38/26.

Idk if I’m hitting low to mid 50s. 43.9 at almost 1 pm.

To me this configuration is when the high is over central PA/southern NY State and pressing downward north to south. In fact the set up reminds me of one Wes and me analyzed a lot 5-10 years ago where the high was more like over central NJ with a moistening easterly flow and the main area kinda got ground to a halt, after clearing the mountains, by the high and we picked up a very uprising 4-6”!

Why can’t we seem to get any northern streamers underneath us? Is it a lack of +PNA?

Howard County deployed their brine trucks. Didn't even know we had county brine. They will probably still close schools too.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 1214 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 TNZ012>017-035-036-045>047-050500- /O.NEW.KMRX.WW.Y.0011.251205T0000Z-251205T1200Z/ Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-Morgan- Anderson-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-Southeast Carter- Including the cities of Howard Quarter, Clinton, Smokey Junction, Sandlick, Norma, Slick Rock, Sneedville, Caryville, Mooresburg, Oak Ridge, Big South Fork National, Oneida, Kyles Ford, Bristol TN, Clairfield, Huntsville, Royal Blue, Springdale, Erwin, White Oak, Evanston, Treadway, Arthur, Kingsport, Limestone Cove, Lone Mountain, Elizabethton, High Point, Petros, Harrogate-Shawanee, Jellico, South Holston Dam, La Follette, Unicoi, Elk Valley, Fincastle, Pine Orchard, Elgin, and Hampton 1214 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Mixed wintry precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch, along with a light glaze of ice. * WHERE...The northern Cumberland plateau and portions of the northern Tennessee valley near the Virginia border. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Thursday evening and Friday morning commutes.

Probably going to be the good ole compromise where we see the Euro probability amplify a bit more, but we see the GFS back up on any phase or interaction. That is going to be difficult to do within the flow but this could still dig a bit more

This thread is reminding me why I love summer: the long hours of daylight, the warm breezes, and not have to look at a stupidly-inflated Kuchera plot for 8 months.

I don’t mind at all. We always joke.

Up to 38/25. I doubt we will make it to 51 which is forecasted. Either way, this is an overnight quick-hitter. Looking forward to our next 2017-type storm here. 16 inches - What a great memory!

OK, that's enough. No more north shifts lol

We squall IMG_7116.mov

Once this stuff starts falling, we need a brave soul to post a thread or the "storm." It ain't gonna be me. LOL. The EB looms....

Temps in Kingsport range from 35-39F. It is a lot colder than I expected it to be.

I will take my inch and LOVE it.

12z euro trying for Sunday night. Maybe a C-1” deal. Esp eastern areas. Dig that northern stream a little more and we might pop something closer to GFS.

WWA up for Calvert, Charles and St. Mary's... but nothing further north. I can't believe the same setup from last year is repeating, albeit in a smaller form. If this keeps up, I think we're going to be the most hated sub-sub-forum in all of AmWx.