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  2. jm1220
    During any Nina, eventually the late winter warmup arrives. We'll see if this new strat warming can make for a colder March like in 2018, but in any Nina here the clock is always ticking to get our snow in Dec or Jan. Last year we had a decent Feb SWFE, 2018 had the epic March. We'll see what happens.
  3. PositiveEPOEnjoyer
    GFS ensembles are quite warm for the first week of March. Long ways out, but still interesting to see.
  4. psv88
    36 today. Felt great
  5. Mrs.J
    We were looking at Puerto Rico or the USVI. But then the reality of us wanting to do new flooring made us put the hold on.
  6. NyWxGuy
    And the pattern regression once the warm-up comes around the 10th or 11th is quite remarkable. Last week it was looking like wall to wall cold during the month of February with some chances here and there for snow but now it’s going to be bone dry until the middle of the month. And at that point, the temperatures aren’t as cold as they have been and we might run into some temperature issues. And even if we stay relatively near average, the rest of the US will be torching similar to the late December through early January pattern. Overall, very bad trends this week.
  7. WinstonSalemArlington
  8. jm1220
    The late Dec event ended up on the low end of expectations here despite no sleet and of course 1/25 there was plenty of sleet here too. Suppression sucks and the lack of real opportunity for snow going forward sucks too but we've at least capitalized on a good window during cold enough air and got the snow to stick around. The last three good for shit winters couldn't make that happen. Probably the best we can ask for until the perma-Nina, warm western tropical Pacific regime changes. Honestly today felt great outside for a change and I'll welcome a warm period if it won't snow. Maybe end of Feb or March will bring more snow chances. We know how March 2018 turned out-not expecting that again of course but maybe one or two decent snow events before the end.
  9. Mo Snow
    Wild that we are under average for the year. In terms of impact, this winter has been way above average. The snow not has not melted for 2+ weeks so it feels like a heavy snow winter even though its statistically not (Especially so if you live in a city and have to park on the street) Are there historical records for total snow depth added up daily over a winter? I wonder where this winter stands.
  10. wasnow215
    That LP develops well on that run
  11. PackGrad05
    HRRR only goes out to 7PM Wednesday night but has a little snow. Both the NAM3K and HRRR did well with the last system. Nam3k is a little wintry mix but mostly north of wake
  12. eduggs
    Even a few 1" refreshers would have gone a long way during this period. This winter has clearly been better than the last several, but the two sleet events have tainted the vibe in NJ relative to areas east (NYC/LI) and north (LHV).
  13. Chinook
    Toledo was 30.25 degrees from Jan 1-16, and 11.3 degrees for Jan 17-31. The average temperature was 21.1 degrees which was 6.4 degrees below normal. Fort Wayne was just 4.2 degrees below normal. (That's kind of because Toledo's climatology is oddly too warm...) The large Greenland blocking toward the beginning of the month was correlated with some warmer temperatures here (as discussed.) Then, the really cold air came in when the ridge developed in/near Alaska. Of course, we ended with a large block west of Greenland that helped the polar air stay over us. (my loop of 500mb anomalies) https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Jan_2026_500mb_loop.html
  14. yotaman
    That was an epic cold spell. I lived in Virginia Beach and we dropped to -4. It was the coldest ever recorded there. Record still holds I believe.
  15. wasnow215
    I refuse to get invested til Euro shows something real. Doesn't have to be the right placement just something real which all of the other models had for this past weekend.
  16. donsutherland1
    Newark had a high of -1 on January 10, 1859.
  17. GaWx
    The major indices on 1/31/26, the day of the majority of the storm, were near ideal overall: - strong +PNA: +1.4 - strong -AO: -2.9 - weak -NAO: -0.5 - moderate -EPO: -1,0 - moderate -WPO: -0.7 - MJO: moderate phase 7 (I had thought it would be phase 8)
  18. KChuck
    Sublimation of snow is the process where snow changes directly from a solid to a gas without first melting into water. This can occur under certain conditions, such as when the air is dry and sunny, allowing snow to disappear without turning into liquid water.
  19. ldub23
    Maybe we get a decent snow after the weekend rug pull
  20. SnoSki14
    This little warmer reprieve will make the weekend cold sting that much harder. Have to see if models moderate it but could be the coldest weather of the season.
  21. DownS.EasternVa
    0z Nam just dropped 6 inches this thing has legs... Lol
  22. wasnow215
    Nam is outside its range but really good run. We shall see
  23. Voyager
    12 in Tamaqua, but 7 at work when I was handing the truck over to my night shift partner.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    If we could get a few legit cold days before and after this event, it would make this winter a solid B if not A-.
  25. Yardstickgozinya
    I could have got some killer shots from the bridges this morning, but old Yardstick is absolutely terrified of bridges and heights beyond a neurotypical's understanding.. I tried my best but fear and the resulting low blood pressure wouldn't let me walk out on the bridges more than a couple feet before my Visovasal sinscope would attempt to knock me out cold.
  26. NorthHillsWx
    NAM super amped, pretty legit storm NE NC and SE VA
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