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Looks lighter on the accumulations though

I wasn't trying to be snarky or confrontational...I am sorry if it came off that way.

With a weaker STJ and a stronger NS (both typical in a Nina base state) it's not unusual for a lot of these waves to end up too weak or suppressed. There is a reason the snowfall minimum (wrt averages) is pretty much right over us in a Nina. There is a better chance of more snow wrt average if you go in any direction...we are too far south for the NS dominant systems and too far north for the weaker STJ systems in a nina pattern. This is a generalization and not to be applied to every situation...but it's going to end up truth in the means over the longer periods...what we have seen is not some bad luck, its what happens in this type of pattern. We need to get out of it.

was it over when the Germans bombed pearl harbor?

You can claim to examine my psychology as much as you want but I'm sure you'd agree the smartest forecast one can do these days is aim low on I95 snow

Thanks

Where have we seen the pacific ruining I95 snow chances before ? Oh wait.

Colder, juicier nam run

Hey I lived in Nova so I gotta cover the VA public schools as that’s where nearly every single one of them went. If you have a map that includes MD I’ll happy use that instead thougu!

Feel like we can just play history here and say it's staying south and this model blend will correct that way (unfortunately)

That thing sucks…lol. But ok.

That was the max on 12/25/2020 at CAR. +35 anyone?

18z Nam's a wreck. I think we're better off if the 12/5 threat fizzled and left some energy behind for our next long shot.

1.4" snow/sleet .. total event QPF 1.07"

im crying old bay tears, where's our side of the Potomac? Nice map tho

And what about all the southern sliders fails with HPs being too strong? How much of that is bad luck/timing with an active NS?

They get worse every year.

Where's JI? I came for some doom scrolling. I saw PSU commented so I got excited. Nothing juicy yet. Still early season lol

I was using the CFS

18z NBM is north relative to a lot of what we’re looking at it seems

I was thinking the same thing…how did he see that? Or did he mean last year/or previous years?

How would to EPS and Euro show New Years Day temps? they don't go out far enough

We’ve been in a Nina ish pacific base state for a long time. That isn’t good for gulf miller a type systems.

That’s exactly what the GEFS is showing; an Aleutian ridge regime (-WPO) as opposed to an Alaskan ridge regime (-EPO)…..

euro SE at 12z