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The surface features aren't driving this outcome. The position and strength of the surface highs and lows follow the upper levels. The trend over the past 2 days is for the shortwave to not "dig" as far south. The vortmax that passes through the Great Lakes is becoming increasingly prominent. The path of this shortwave and vorticity advection ends up tracking pretty similarly to Sunday's wave that precedes it. That leads to a stronger surface reflection (primary) near Western PA and southeasterly low level flow that quickly changes snow to rain along the coastal plain. The hope is that maybe guidance is keying on the wrong packet of vorticity and that the models will shift back towards a more favorable trof evolution. As of now this is transitioning towards a SWFE-type event that favors the interior, particularly New England. But it's still close to a wintry outcome... and highly trackable.

Not sure how to score it yet on events, I guess we will find out this season.

Dont really see anything to dislike on the 00z runs. Gonna go with a potentially conservative guess of 8".

I know we’re 5 days out, but the differences are comical.

Yep weird

The Euro AI has been well east every run.

Same as Euro AI

Definitely worried about how north some hi res guidance is. Especially the hrrr/rap. It still has decent totals here but question snow quality especially in the latter part of the storm as low passes close or over. Hrrr/rap drag the mixing line north of me. Gfs/euro/nam keep it south. Tomorrow is the day to watch for trends. Hoping this doesn't start a north trend now. I think QC up to Chicago really going to cash in but a little nervous down here on I74 corridor.

If it's not the Pacific being against us, it's the Atlantic. Within 12 hours everything goes poof. Winter just doesn't have the punch it used to have.

UKIE 500 mi SE of 12z..................., Earned its drunk uncle status.

I saw that, but there's always one that clings on to a fantasy. That said, still time to salvage something, but we better start seeing hints of our salvation sooner than later.

18z EPS mean is 10" for the QC even at 10:1 ratios, pretty impressive considering I'd expect the ratios to be better than that through a good chunk of the storm. This will punch above its weight class SLP depth wise given the favorable dynamics aloft and very strong LLJ/WAA minus a lot of strong convection in the warm sector. Height falls look excellent on the 00z GFS.

Not CNE ski areas, but the worm is turning

Ukie LOL

Never fails that the models show a decent event upcoming, they invariably advertise additional events down the road. Then when the first threat fizzles, all the rest of the threats go with it. Tonight's Gfs is a perfect example, at least thru 240hrs.

Canadian still hanging on to a front end thump

In that case we just hug climo... which is basically the GFS... a nice hit for the elevated interior. As an aside the euro AI is only worth looking at like you'd look at a car on fire on the side of the road.

Ratios are what im interested in. A bulk of the snow will fall with temps of about 28-32, so even if it does end as rain as temps briefly climb above freezing Sunday morning here, I have to imagine a good blanket is laid down.

I stand corrected, but I am glad to see it looks like they will keep doing well. I am going to be skiing a lot in December, so I have a good reason to be excited for the north. Plenty of time for my area to get snow later in the month.

Check it out this winter if the MJO gets back to P5,ill look for an archive but i doubt its the same

There is a reasonable chance that I could have less inches of snow this season than the Ravens had turnovers tonight.

Quite possible but its still close to watch it.

Canadian is marginally cooler than the gfs, but also completely less impressive. Good snow is confined to a small area. Zero consensus

Lol . Silly.. they've already had a " great start " weeks ago with the Snow they have already gotten. Nice practice be aggressive post though.

I tuned out pretty early based on the pattern for my yard. A HP sliding off the NE coast in early Dec never works out well for the lowlands. Places NW at elevation might salvage something, otherwise head to the western highlands to see some snow.