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Framber Valdez so far 0.75 Era through 2 starts.

Chris Bassett - Charlie Morton vibes

To get the strongest Nino in 140 years, the ONI would probably need to get up to ~3.0 to allow RONI to exceed the 2.5 RONI peak of 1982-3 and thus become the strongest since 1887-8. Keep in mind the Euro longterm warm bias that could possibly be causing its April prog to be too warm.

@Voyager might have been on to something with his post the other day. I'm hearing whispers of a strong El Nino. If that were to verify ( location dependent) it could be the back door until next spring If you get what i'm saying. In all seriousness though, come later this spring and summer the bdf will be welcome and offer something for everyone.

Honestly, I'd be fine with 50 in the winter and 85 in the summer.

I hope they can pull it together. This season may spiral out of control fairly quickly. That's what happened last year Season was basically over by Memorial day.

So glad youre back! Please continue to post so we get the whole experience starting in Fall.

The entire climate sensitivity range is the scientific consensus. By excluding most of the likely range, Spencer severely underestimates climate risk. There is low and diminishing technical support for low climate sensitivity. Spencer's views are inconsistent with the temperature rise we have already experienced. Other arguments against low sensitivity include: large and increasing earth energy imbalance and the growing consensus on positive cloud feedback. The scientific consensus is that the long list of CO2/warming debits far outweigh a couple of benefits.

gotta pass the spring barrier. this is like a 10 day EPS forecast but for ENSO at this point in the year

This is really going to be fascinating to watch. If we didn’t have that very strong Nino in 23-24, I think I would be fully on board for a super Nino this year. If we would have had a strong Nina in the last two years I might even be reluctantly on board. However, since we never get such a strong Nino so close in years, it just makes me feel like something is going to fail that the models can’t see right now. In 2022 we even had the MEI get down to something like -2.2 which made a rebound strong Nino seem likely. We have nothing like that this year.

Happy Easter to the forum members! Hopefully it’s a joyous one. We have the successful rescue in Iran of a downed U.S. airman to help celebrate it. Also, Happy Passover! One more warm humid day before a several day cooldown with highs in the upper 60s or low 70s. But before that, I’m hoping for some good rainfall amounts later today and this evening as it is extremely dry here.

I'm currently having a discussion with the same voices about a winter grade. Dick and I personally think that it deserves a higher grade then the C I'll be giving it, but It's 5 against 2, and I can't take the screaming anymore.

And speaking of Adley...how about HIS start to the season? I'm starting to see the Adley of 2022-June 2024. Now Mayo...I think we need to give the bat a little more time. Now once the offense heats up and he still isn't hitting by middle of the year...then yeah that might be a problem. Defensively he seemed to be making strides until yesterday, lol

Wow….

sure sure. Enjoy

N. Pacific is ENSO's greatest correlation East-based shifts the Canadian ridge more east

That's my concern 2023...but then again, I'm not sure winter enthusiasts would feen any better if the RONI and ONI were in lock-step.

https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1996/NJSnow-09Apr96.png April 9-10th 1996. Mostly a Suffolk event

Most extreme March NAO on record, +2.69. The composite is actually a cooler May, when rolled forward. Just interesting - look at all this equilateral warmth later in the year, correlating with March +NAO

Previous most extreme for March was -2.47 in 1962

I just had a lengthy discussion with the voices in my head about this. We completely agree , but only because people are weird. A normal person likes their winter days around 0℉ and summer days close to the century mark. .

.45 rain from this mornings event. I wasn't expecting that much, I thought maybe I'd get 2 tenths. But it is needed as we enter the growing season.

Hello from Key West everyone. Breezy and 81 degrees. And I don’t say that as an FU to anyone in the northeast currently

What was that Easter in the 90s where it was warm and sunny and the next day we got like a foot of snow?

ASS+