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Are any of you all using Spotter Tools Pro? It is a new weather radar program and it's free after initial purchase in the app store. https://www.facebook.com/share/1DSNaajEg8/ Sent from my moto g stylus 5G - 2023 using Tapatalk

That huge cold anamolie over eastern Siberia is the last thing you want to see. .

Now that the multi-run CFS’ have warmed considerably in the E US for Feb vs how they were a couple of weeks ago, the above Nov Cansips run for Feb is notably colder by ~2F than the latest 3 day CFS for Feb, which is below (even after considering the ~1F colder climo being used by this TT CFS):

Depends on where you were. Don't be a @CoastalWx!

That’s an absolute beast. 1st of many possibly. .

2016 sucked around here...basically for areas that whiffed on the blizzard.

2.21" rainfall on the month.

Deeply negative, no....but I think it will get more favorable in that domain during the stretch.

Yes, toss the Modiki crap...all guidance has been erroneously doing that.....but Cansips and JMA have been worst.

Nice.

But given we have only 4 very strong El Ninos prior since 1950, we could be surprised. One thing I have come to realize that just when you think you'd seen it all, a big curve ball is thrown, so do no totally dismiss the E Coast for sig snows. Case in point when it comes to very strong El Nino, and I have mentioned this before, we always assumed the Cali gets soaked in such El Nino and the Pac NW dry, but the 2015-16 event, the exact opposite occurred! So even though many regions often get the same sensible wx in this type of El Nino, they can be sig deviations for some. Why not us this time? And locally for this type of El Nino, we can cash in from a not-so-apparent or rather MEH-looking event. Like Dec 23. 1997! And of course, big events like Feb 1983 of Jan 2016. And really 2015-16, we did not do that bad in SNE. Better than the long lamenting 40year period @CoastalWx would not stop b*tching about through Dec 2025! https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/sne-15-16

The above-normal warmth continues

I ended up with 4.3” of rainfall this month, which is slightly above normal. But I’ve gotten none since Oct 11th, which was from a feeder band with thunderstorms that woke me ~7AM from the influence of Isaias’ remnants and which was just ahead of a cold front. I got a total of 1.6” from Isaias Oct 9-11th. The wx especially early this week and last week with comfy dewpoints and sunshine was great for outdoor activities. Due to the combo of persistent breezy NE winds most of this week and the full moon early this week, there was coastal flooding near times of high tide Oct 25th-29th despite sunny wx (“King Tides”).

From Spann: SSW/POLAR VORTEX: I have been getting many questions about last night's post here about the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event in progress. Let's clarify in plain English... Twenty miles above the North Pole, a river of wind circles the Arctic — a fence keeping the coldest air on Earth bottled up over the pole. Next week, that fence collapses — earlier than ever recorded. The air high above the pole warms sharply in days (that's the "sudden stratospheric warming"), the circling winds reverse, and down comes the fence. All 50 European forecast scenarios show it by November 12; the record is November 28. What it means for Alabama — and what it doesn't: *It does NOT mean cold arrives next week. The next two weeks stay mild. *It DOES raise the odds of real cold later. With the fence down, Arctic air can spill south in the weeks that follow — for us, the window is Thanksgiving into December. *The wildcard: a super El Niño brings a wet, busy storm track here. Cold air meeting that moisture is the December combination to watch. Bottom line: no hype, no snow forecast — just better-than-normal odds that December brings cold. I get the idea our weather will be pretty interesting over the next 4-6 months. Stay tuned.

Miller A ?

Yup, and this Nino is doing exactly what is expected. The Super Nino composites for depth on Mansfield are not in any way encouraging, ha. Some bottom barrel seasons.

This guy "Northeast Wx Alert" on FB has been pushing big cold for the NEUS this winter all along, and as soon as the models shows it cold in the long range, he jumps all over it and says things such as "as I was saying" w/ endless patting himself on the back. See the post below. What is funny is that is a 10-day fcst, and he acts like he always "wins" here, when it hasn't even happened yet! Classic weasel fcst statement: "This is precisely the possibility I have been dissing." Using "precise" and "possibility" in the same sentence when talking about a 10-day fcst??? Well, that the problem with this guy, he is *always* talking about the long range and what *might* happen, never the short range or what *is* happening. Never talks about verification of his forecasts, just always hedging and wording things in generic and vague terms w/ about as classic word salad as you can get that is verbose that says nothing, or nothing anyone could not say and have no skills in forecasting, just good w/ the word hustle! I've called him out several times in the past w/ reasonable and valid statements about his style and wording, and of course, all the defensive, and he eventually blocked me. That's tell-tale sign of a hustler/poser or someone who is closed-minded and about ME ME ME! They block you when they know they are cornered and can't rebut/retort from valid statements that give sold criticism. He talks about blocking and the -NAO. Just b/c it gets cold in the NEUS does not mean there is blocking and a -NAO. In such a strong El Nino pattern, the STJ dominates and things are very progressive, so Greenland blocking is largely absent. There is blocking, but it is in central Canada, not the same thing for CONUS sensible wx!

Weather becoming increasingly jackety.