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..Mid-Atlantic... Farther downstream, scattered to widespread heavy rainfall will be focusing along the wavy, east-west orientated frontal boundary draped over the northern Mid-Atlantic states and offshore south of Long Island. Back building/training of slow moving storms capable of hourly rates rates greater than 2 inches/hour will track across eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey this evening. Guidance is signaling areal averages of 3 to 6 inches with local maximums of 8+ possible along this corridor. The latest guidance maintains focus of the highest probabilities for the intense rain rates and higher QPF over central to eastern PA, portions of central to northern NJ, and far northern Maryland. The combination of some terrain areas and the highly urbanized corridor makes this area much more vulnerable to flash flooding. While there remains some spatial uncertainty to exactly where the greatest rainfall will occur, the setup favors locally significant flash flooding with the Moderate Risk over eastern Pennsylvania and north/central New Jersey embedded in the Slight Risk that now spans from northeast Indiana and southeast Michigan (including Detroit) through the Mid- Atlantic Coast from NYC to central Virginia.

Further SE but good luck trying to pinpoint the JP

Now post the HRRR

Both NAMS destroy CT

Think we make it until 6-7pm without rain today? I don't really care too much about fireworks, but our town is having a huge festival all day with food trucks, bands, and a watch party for the Brazil vs Norway game at 4pm. Would be nice to get the fireworks in too...

Hoping today we get under a nice cell. We have missed out all week.

I keep thinking my PWS runs warm with temps. But you hitting 106 makes my 106 seem legit. It’s 3 days in a row where I’ve topped 104. That’s just nuts

Very cloudy here in Brooklyn Temp 80

Somehow I got .23” when most of the good stuff missed

Wait a second. What's your kink? You just like watching rain fall? You don't care about grass burning up and that stuff? I can dig it lol

Very bad storm. We were on the lake celebrating the 4th when it popped up. We had about 10 min left in the trip back to the dock when the cloud to ground lightning started zero metering. Good ol’ pucker up moment.

From CTP Rare Heat at Harrisburg: 3 consecutive days with maxT >= 100F from July 2-4, 2026. The last time this streak occurred was July 1999 (2x) and is only the 6th time on record going back to 1888.

We got the south end of the cell that went through Chester County @8:30 last night. Transformer blew in front of my house. Lost power for 3 1/2 hours and then again for a little bit overnight. Impressive wind. Fire companies running silly all night last night.

38 hours and counting with no power

For the US averaged out, this is the coldest NDJ on any Euro July forecast back to 2019. Not only that but keep in mind they’ve averaged out too warm since 2017 (significant warm bias as more have verified too warm than too cold): ‘26: ‘25: sig. too warm E US ‘24: significantly too warm most of lower 48 ‘23: close ‘22: a bit too cold E US/significantly too warm W US ‘21: slightly too warm E US/close W US ‘20: pretty close E US; too warm W US ‘19: close Also, July ‘18 forecast for NDJ was a bit too warm C US to NE and close Mid Atlantic/SE US; was close in W

Power still out. Ton of BGE outages in Harford, reducing but very slowly. I went out to get coffee and survey, saw trees and limbs down all around. Sticks and leaves plastered everywhere. Did not see any trees on wires on my route and only one partial roadblock, on my street, but could drive around. 0.49" total

Couldn't agree more. It tells me that the other seasonal models aren't far off with their progs of a winter offering legit chances for snow and cold, obviously interspersed with AN periods that will push the mean to only a little AN. Of course, without seeing the monthly maps, there's a but of speculation on my part.

UCAR/NCAR lit up for the area again today. https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/projects/ncar_ensemble/ainwp/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR3_KcoSRHWhY1lxCTCfOqSNC0AD8SUSmL_c7R_N8rtpvo-PsNNvuY3vuI4_aem_Stpgx3ntIqB8IVErFY76cQ

I’m in the jackpot…

Damaged traffic light from last night’s severe thunderstorms in Larchmont, NY (photo from my brother).

This (NDJ) looks good to me with no suggestion of a warm NDJ in most of the U.S. Actually, H5/2m in a good portion of the E US is near the lowest in the NH! This looks fairly typical of El Niño with the coldest/warmest US anoms in the South/North: Prospects remain excellent to relieve the E US drought, which is typical of strong+ El Niño:

The cool down from the storm was fantastic, made our evening grilling a bit late but much more pleasant.

Alot of damage here last night. No power for 8 hrs.

@Jns2183 Wegmans and the entire silver spring commons has powerI believe. You can kill a lot of time there.