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At some point, the storminess along west US and west Canada would force that ridge to roll over. In the northeast, we will have mainly seasonal temps for rest of the month, but the torch over central US is very impressive. Reminiscent of Dec 2023 and Dec 2021. Just mild and warm for much of the nation. Both of the following januarys got pretty active after those months, but nothing really crazy over here in terms of snow and cold

we don’t? you may want to inform central illinois that their 6-9” on saturday was a mirage.

Yeah that's the benchmark to watch. If we see a deeply negative PNA, then rest of winter would probably be similar to winter 2023 and 2024. Big time snow and cold in the west, and warm and mild over here

Pretty strong East based block showing up on GEFS and EPS in the 10-15, AIFS and GEPS much less of a signal

The month will nearly certainly finish colder than avg, though the extent of the upcoming thaw (and how much of the near record warmth in the southern plains makes it north) will dictate just how much.

Difficult, but not impossible. Most likely it would occur after a significant storm tracks well NW and pulls some transient cold southward- then a well timed wave to move along the boundary. Personally I am not very interested in tracking given the advertised upcoming pattern, but will take the occasional glance at the ens means here and there. I have plenty to do outside and mild, fair weather periods in the winter are an ideal time to get things done. No heat, no bugs, etc.

Looks like the "high water mark" for the cold, so to speak. With upcoming pattern change, final December numbers should be rather ho-hum.

H Sapiens almost didn't make it. A lot of money was riding on Neanderthal for a while...

That trough position on the Canadian coast is usual not good here. We’ll need the blocking for sure or else the CONUS Chinook reaches here. FWIW AI Ensembles looked better vs EPS.

Go with Ai…they had the general idea right with this last one…from 8 plus days out.

I don't even have an account on there.

Is winter over ?

-NAO to the rescue or does it link with a SE ridge? Surface warm anomalies still in the Central US.. Generally looks seasonable with average precip during the holiday week, will need luck on our side though I think

Big storm not happening but it could still snow. Lots of our small to moderate snows you look at the h5 and think how the hell did it snow. When the h5 looks great alot of times ground truth isn't

The SouthernWX forum has devolved into a war between warm weather trollers and the rest of the board lmao.

late 25th thru mid 27th is an icing pattern. didn't appear y'all mentioned it? If not, that's a stalled polar boundary with duration over running. 1020 +PP situated N of the boundary pushing E while gaining some as it goes + climo = ice event written all over it. Like Will said, ...talk to us when we're within a week. Tru. But, the idea of some sort of a mixy potentials in that time frame is still there in principle.

There are multiple areas they list as having .1 that is not accurate though. Most of us foothills folks can tell you that. Regardless, places other than TN border areas and higher elevations have not seen a winter storm in NC this season.

Measurable snow is considered .1" or more. Looking at the IEM maps, it appears most of the state has seen at least .1".

That's the evolution of getting that pesky GOA Low moved. Force that sucker South and West . The Central Ridge gets forced back West from the classic blocking that looks to be setting up..if that 50-50 is real, that'll be the real deal blocking Pattern.

EPS isn’t pretty either. I mean something eventually has to go right?

I would say its generous to say 50% of NC has seen "measurable snow". 80% of those measurable snow areas have seen 1 inch or less. I guess snow falling from the sky without accumulating is considered measurable nowadays.

If there was a concern they wouldn’t be attempting it. They’ll have that ice surface plenty cold.

Those maps are a bit more generous than the IEM maps shown below; regardless, most of NC has seen measurable snow.

I mean it was advertised to be a long shot. Even in New York.

Especially if the RNA is closer to the west coast and -2 or less. Would not happen in a +PNA.