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The CONUS has no major hurricane landfalls Nov 2005 to July 2017, that 11.5 year gap is the longest on record going back to 1851. New England or LI has not had a hurricane landfall since 1991, it's longest such gap period on record. Contrast this to 5 from 1938-1960. During the Atlantic inactive period 1970-1994, there were 3 hurricane landfalls in this same region, but 1995-2025 is the most active Atlantic period on record, and none here! So you see it works in bursts and in non-even/linear ways, and this is true worldwide w/ many wx phenomena. This why you can not let short-term cycles/trends (say 30 year or less) or "recency bias" influence scientific objectivity. Human quirks and fallacies in perception/behavior are an issue here as to reality (and the MSM takes full advantage of this, unfortunately). Geologically, the atmosphere cycles/patterns work on much longer time scales. What is a "long time" to people (say 10-20 years) is not a long time geologically! In the case of Atlantic TC cycles, they work on a 25-50 cycle from the AMO phase. This is clearly evident in the data going back to the mid-19tn century. And of all the TC basins in the world, the Atlantic is the most variable overall.

You should post that over in the main Enso thread. You're sure to make lots of friends.

lmao at that 00z 4knam.

UVA Sunset after a convective complex rolled through.

EF-2 tracking 3.5 miles. 1 man was injured trying to protect this newborn from a falling tree, but fortunately no fatalities.

Grand total of 0.01” here

Like, I was only half speaking in jest when I said winter cancel. Looking forward to that February golf.

A spectacular cell started falling apart on its way to me, as usual. Still managed 0.42" but places not far north have 1.5"+. Hopefully some more tomorrow.

Looks fake but I hate that we are now in a timeline we can’t tell

It has been confirmed

Not sure what you mean. It's part of the -PDO that has been around for years and was why 2023-24 was so weird. Hopefully we see that warm blob actually break down into the fall.

I was really surprised when this popped up on my Radarscope. The HRRR hates this event, and while WPC talked up the 850 mb confluence, it seems kind of subtle to me. That said, the RRFS likes it to some extent, as did some of the cams earlier today, and storms are indeed firing across central PA. I'll be surprised if anything makes it southwest of Baltimore, but it's worth monitoring for a while this evening.

Really unigue pattern we are in,weve never seen the PDO negative after August in a strong NINO so like @Jeff said above the PDO is out of whack.Just like imto 1982 the solar is just as well on the decline,but regardless,this could end up like 1982 and NINA domt really develop until the fall,winter possibly next year,unlike 1997 or 2015,but i still discount 2015 myself because that NINO started in 2014 and the Walker Circulation broke down into summer and made this a west/ central based NINO,unlike this year

Didn’t get as hot as yesterday, but still extreme. 100.5 was the high

Typical Baz type game.

High of 94. One more day of this heatwave. Sunday and Monday look magnificent. Low 80's and hopefully low dew points.

WPC just issued a meso for heavy rain for central and NE MD with a nearly clean sweep on radar?

This area (well backyard at least) absolutely blows for mosquitos. I am not sure why because there isn't any areas of water around. But once it starts getting dark out it seems they magically come out of nowhere. It really sucks because I like to sit outside during the evening but can't, they're too ruthless. Bug spray doesn't evening work...hell I am convinced those suckers have evolved to the point that it doesn't even bother them.

it’s like 82 degrees in the house and power has been out for 21 hours now… and we’re gonna make it to 24. third delay. u gotta be fucking kidding me

For those looking for some hope to cling to, I wouldn't sleep on 2009–10 as at least a partial analog. Obviously, the magnitude isn't comparable if 2026 continues toward the upper end of current forecasts, so I'm not arguing these are ENSO twins. But there are some interesting similarities in the evolution. 2009 transitioned fairly quickly out of La Niña/neutral conditions into a developing El Niño, with the atmosphere increasingly coupling during late summer/fall. By September 2009, we were seeing suppressed convection around Indonesia, anomalous convection farther east, and increasingly established low-level westerly wind anomalies. There are some similarities to what we're seeing now in the atmospheric response, even though 2026 is running much hotter. What interests me more than matching Niño 3.4 numbers is where the forcing ultimately establishes itself and what kind of North American response we get from it. 2009–10 ultimately produced a very favorable southern storm track along with a much more cooperative high-latitude pattern. For those of us in the Tennessee Valley, that combination delivered a legitimately cold, snowy winter. Obviously we can't analog the NAO/AO in September, and 2026 could evolve into something structurally quite different. But if the eastern-Pacific warmth becomes less dominant relative to continued central/east-central Pacific warming, and the tropical forcing/convection begins consolidating farther west, I think 2009–10 becomes increasingly interesting as a pattern/evolution analog, even if it's a poor magnitude analog. So no, I'm not calling for a repeat of 2009–10. But I wouldn't toss it because this Niño is stronger, either. Analog the evolution and atmospheric response, not just the ONI. There may be more there than the raw ENSO numbers suggest. Then again, hope floats.

Yes he was hanging out with me last night while I was cooking on the Blackstone

Rivers up here near Townshend are bone fucking dry... Damn Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk