All Activity

suppressed lol. Look where the model was at 00z

hearing icon is suppressed

it looks like loudoun is 25 miles wide. I measured to leesburg which is like 13 miles. that puts me in western

ICON ultimately ends up suppressedclosed tho

It's a lot closer to something, though. @soadforecasterx's quick synoptic breakdown post above is a good representation of it.

North branch doesnt dive in this run, Icon wont pull it off but its damn close.

even that is pushing it. C-2" at best always seemed about right. we'll see

If this snowstorm happens I'm convinced it's because of George Washington's rant.

Looks like it'll be warmer than the Euro tho :/ But...ICON and all.

looks like icon is doing what we want. has the vort to the NE getting out the way. Then you see our northern branch wanting to drop in and phase

Dude needs to be shot into the sun, 276hour op gfs with kuchera ratios is an insane way to clickbait

Yeah it’s too cutoff otherwise and just happily chugs east. I still love what the gfs did with it.

So, take a look at the ICON. Compared to 6z EUro, it looks about the same so far and I think it followed your scenario...just don't know if it'll turn out the same or as good tho.

start restricting calories now and your body will be more heat tolerant by summer

Coldest DJM here, 1998-99 and forward, was 14-15 with 13.1°- no surprise. Both 02-03 and 13-14 had 13.5°, 02-03 fractionally colder. Adding March puts 13-14 in first place with 14.7° thanks to a very cold March. 14-15 is 2nd at 15.3°. In Gardiner, 85-86 thru 97-98, coldest for DJM and DJFM was 93-94, with 16.1° and 19.8°, respectively. 95-96 was BN but 92-93 was a bit colder. Day 18 of consecutive subzero minima, tying with Fort Kent in 1982, with -9. No chance to extend the streak.

Hasn’t this always kind of been a 1”-3” deal in SNE? Can’t let one or two robust runs snow goggle us.

That's my assumption too with the flow and 850s but for some reason soundings on bufkit are struggling to really mix. Could just be something funky going on with that

The chances for an overall Feb -PNA are good as of now with a strong -PNA upcoming. This goes through Feb 24th: AO now rising sharply: NAO is, like the AO, also rising. However, it remains to be seen whether or not this rise will be enough to get the DJF NAO >-0.25, the # I’ve always used to classify a winter as -NAO vs neutral. DJ is at -0.5. In order for DJF to rise above -0.25, the Feb NAO would need to end up >+0.25, which is a decent possibility per this:

RGEM has been slightly edging north the past few runs, but it hasn’t budged much.

Except winters don't have a defined scoreboard and are subjectively localized. TFlizzy’s definition of a “winning” winter is drastically different than the resident predator’s…

You should just move to the old WestPark golf course so you can officially say you live in Western Loudoun

You’re a tough grader! I’d give it a solid B+ if Spring were to march in and stick around. The immense cold that kept our snowpack locked in for weeks on end is why most people are going to remember this winter for awhile. I’m also an out-front retention snob. I do think this winter has a little bit of gas left in the tank. Maybe one more shot at something toward the end of Feb before we get a classic mild, Niña March. Zooming way out, I am encouraged that we had favorable breaks from the cutter-cold-suppression-cutter nonsense in December and January that allowed us to build up a snowpack. Even if we revert to it for a time, I think we are cycling away from it as a dominant pattern. I’m actually really curious what next winter might feature if we see a bona fide Niño—something we haven’t seen in quite awhile.

need the northern stream s/w to dive in to bring this up the coast

Most important 12z GFS run ever