All Activity

In SYR rest of the week. Looks stormy tomorrow

Well, at least we know nothing has changed for the GFS concerning TCs! However, in this case, it was overdeveloping 95L not in the long-range (7+ days out) I seem to recall it did better in the short-range. I recall last year and the year before, when during the peak season, the MDR was shutdown big time from the SAL/dust/warm temps aloft/TUTTs and/or the ITCZ too far N, even then the GFS was not spinning up TCs. One advantage the global models have is that they know the large-scale synoptic environment well, so if they are not doing much w/ a system, but the short-range or TC models are, that's a red flag as the synoptic environment not favorable (this works best when a system is in its nascent stages). But it seems the GFS can't acknowledge the El Nino-driven hostile conditions in the MDR?, which i odd b/c they are screaming at us w/ that "barrier" of high shear across the nrn part of the MDR.

Knew it was too good to last. Oh, well been a nice run. Looks like a train of rain from the great lakes next week. Hopefully jackass gets his tobacco in by then.

The dry cool air was nice while we had it! Moisture is returning and appears Friday into possibly early Saturday is our best chance of rain.

1983 redux? But that was the year after very strong El Nino. 1982 was very low ACE though (3rd lowest since 1946). S-T-D, how does this rank historically, at least since the satellite era I wonder? Only 3.1 ACE so far (~12% of avg).

The invest doesn’t look half bad. Fun times in a coin flip environment.

Oh, and that far more apparent just on the forums in AmrWx, esp. on the New England group! Never have I seen such EEYORE-type attitudes, even after the two blockbuster snowstorms in New England this past winter, and a rather cold winter to boot (snow cover stuck around a long time even in DCA/BWI). But it had only been 4 year since the last big snowstorm for the NEUS. You'd think it was 40 years from the posts! And then I have to keep telling so many, you have no idea how lousy it was for East Coast winters 1978-79 to 1991-92! However, two New England direct hurricane strikes during that tperiod, so not all "the worst!"

some stormy conditions (again)

I liked rufus 2.0. Newark!

It's one reason why you can't rely on the wx for steady ratings or interest. You think svr wx season will segue nicely into hurricane, and then into winter storm season (or should I say EAST COAST snowstorm season b/c that's all the seems to matter to the MSM for ratings!), but it isnot always going to cooperate, so you get all these anniversaries or past systems for filler even though they are not multiple of 5 years! There is a lot TC activity going on in the NHEMI currently, but the Atlantic bias is obvious Yet the Atlantic only accounts for about 15% of annual global TC accumulated cyclone energy (ACE). We've been "spoiled" in the Atlantic since 1995 and eventually the AMO is going to flip for a quieter Atlantic. When they will be? Not clear. Last active active period before this one was 1926-1969. Prior to that, the 1870s to about 1900. So looking at 30-45 year cycle here?, but we only have two data points in the period of record, so that is far from telling us the extent of what happens for Atlantic TC cycles (up oe down), but we do have a solid idea the Atlantic TC activity does come in multi-decade cycles and know that it is the most variable TC basin in the world.

Can make it up . Just unreal

Showers and thunderstorms are likely tomorrow into tomorrow night. Some areas could see flooding downpours. Highs will top out in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Following the frontal passage, Friday through Monday will see highs reach the upper 70s and lower 80s. It could turn somewhat warmer to end August and start September. However, no excessive heat appears likely through the remainder of August and into the opening days of September. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.43°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -10.99 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.645 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 53% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.0° (0.1° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.8° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

He’s called for tors to the coast al summer . Most of us haven’t seen lighthing

December preview

Nino: Cool summer No Tropical Activity Mild snowless winter You have 2 of 3 thus far for all those people that will call for snowy and cold in late Oct

It’s tragic and hard to watch. Unlike Johnstown though a bunch of rich pricks didn’t essentially cause it.

What about intervals of - EPO. Also, wonder if I can see a cold Oct/Nov at times due to intense late season West Pac typhoons recurving and its interactions with the EPO domain. Speculation really.

It was a cherry yesterday. Lots of shear, dust out there.

Chris numbers can be made to show anything, the point is this summer doesn't hold a candle to any of the ones I mentioned, not even last summer, let alone 2010, 2005, 2002, 1999, 1995, 1993, 1991, 1988, 1983, 1980 and those are 10 just off the top of my head that were much hotter. Yes we had an extremely hot 4 day period so this summer was like a much lesser version of 1966. 1966 also had a three day 100 plus streak at JFK but each of those days was hotter not to mention heat waves were much longer back then. Our summer ended after July 15th.

Pretty wild https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tbwb/executive

Let's hang out! I'm also thinking about buying one. You can travel all over Upstate NY on the awesome trail system they have. LFG! I agree 100%! He's also is one hell of a good cook.

1948 WOW now THAT was a real summer and if I'm not mistaken JFKs latest 100 degree day and back to back 100 degree days and NYC had three in a row in late August no less!!!

I corrected the 100% in a later post. Here's the actual breakdown.