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Seasonal model forecasts for super El Niños usually have warmer temperatures across Canada and the Northern tier states into the Northeast. So in that general sense they usually end up correct. But they haven’t been correct with the magnitude of the warmth. Spots that wound up with +10 or more months have only been forecast to be something like +1 to 3 or maybe +2 to +4. Plus each of the 3 super El Niños since the late 90s had other variations in regard to where the ridge axis was located vs forecast. 1997-1998 was our only east based event of that era with a strong +PDO and no Maritime Continent forcing. But it started out cooler in the East during December and got progressively warmer during January and February. So it didn’t follow the general El Niño progression. It also had a strong -AO in January that linked up with the Southeast ridge even with such a strong STJ. The models had the stock El Niño composite for December 2015 as late as November 2023 with warmer north and cooler south. We wound up with the warmest December on record in the East greater than +13 in spots which were forecast to be something like +1 to +3. Strong +PDO that winter and a Maritime Cintinent influence in December 2023-2024 was forecast to be only something like +1 to 3 for places which verified more than +10. The event had a -PDO with Maritime Continent influence. This event is stronger than all three of those events. So the models probably won’t start showing the actual December pattern until into the first week of December. The January pattern probably won’t begin to show up until closer to New Years. And the actual February pattern until that month starts also.

If only it was all 4 hours earlier.

beautiful weather coming up.. some knew Today Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Tonight A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 10pm and 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 62. Southwest wind 3 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 81. West wind 7 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 59. Light northwest wind. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 80. Calm wind becoming west around 6 mph in the afternoon. Wednesday Night A slight chance of showers between midnight and 2am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 57. Light southwest wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. Light southwest wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Thursday Night A chance of showers before 9pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 51. West wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Friday Sunny, with a high near 75. Northwest wind 6 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 50. Northwest wind 3 to 5 mph. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 75. Northwest wind 5 to 9 mph. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 50. Light northwest wind. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 75. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon.

US National Weather Service State College PA Monday August 10th, 2026 @ 5:45 AM EDT Severe Weather Risk Today This Morning: Initial rounds of showers/storms - Gusty winds & small hail possible; severe weather less likely Later Today: Additional showers/storms, some of which may be severe - Main hazards are damaging wind gusts and localized flooding

In about 5 months You'll be sayin it is f'n cold out, so enjoy this warmth while it's here. Soon the warmth will fade and the changing of the seasons will awaken the great Blizz.

58F for the low, feels much better than 74F. Slow progression downward with the temps and dews this week

Woke up to some nice garden variety plus, glad to see round 2 delivered some illinois tors

Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 424 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026 PAZ004>006-010>012-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-058-110830- Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Tioga- Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union- Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Schuylkill- 424 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and locally heavy rain will be possible this afternoon and evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Thunderstorms with locally heavy rain are possible Tuesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. $$ Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 424 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026 PAZ017>019-024>028-033>036-056-057-059-063>066-110830- Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon- Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin- Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- 424 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and locally heavy rain will be possible this afternoon and evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Strong thunderstorms with gusty winds and locally heavy rain are possible Tuesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. $$

Whatever is causing these multiple days of 90 degree heat... I'd officially like to stop. Until June 2027.

Some garden storms were heading my way a few hrs ago then fizzled as they neared. Yep, mid summer is the time for nada. This current pattern is flip flopping from 24C to 27C every 48.

That CFS plot looks like 2009-2010 IMO.

That doesn't look like prohibitive warmth in SNE, either....like 2004-2005 warmth probably. ... +1-+3F. Give me that all day long if it comes with tons of moisture....I'll take that over last year in a heartbeat. 2004-2005 was slightly above average in terms of temps, but only 1995 and 2014 saw higher total seasonal snowfall IMBY.

Happy Nape Day!!! Solar max, exit stage right!!

There are things that matter for seasonal forecasts that models can see many months in advance, but there are also things that either they simply cannot see or are more regional/shorter temporally and so the forecasts won't see them for several months. As an example, and my memory is fuzzy, but there was a paper I believe that at least implied that the "Ridiculously Resilient Ridge" of 2013-2015 was substantially driven by the existing land/surface state (i.e. self reinforcing). And it's not like that is a novel concept, but the question is, what can these climate models realistically know about? I suspect a lot of these more nuanced land/sea configuration states do not reach the model forecast. What does that leave you? It leaves you where I started, with the things the model can see. I have no doubt that in the absence of other forcings the canonical El Nino forecast is what you would get every time. It is then our job as forecasters to determine what else is going to matter to modify or shift that enso signal. Forecasters like 40/70 Benchmark do a good job at this and consider the kaleidoscope of forcings to try to arrive at what may actually happen. But as he already noted, you will never have stronger enso forcing than this, so its reasonable to assume we end up closer to "climatology" than normal...whatever that is for a roided out Nino like this one.

0Z UKMETNEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 10.6N 37.5WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------0000UTC 13.08.2026 72 10.1N 38.8W 1011 251200UTC 13.08.2026 84 10.6N 41.9W 1011 270000UTC 14.08.2026 96 11.4N 44.8W 1011 291200UTC 14.08.2026 108 12.5N 48.2W 1011 290000UTC 15.08.2026 120 13.8N 51.7W 1012 321200UTC 15.08.2026 132 15.9N 56.4W 1011 380000UTC 16.08.2026 144 16.8N 60.2W 1011 401200UTC 16.08.2026 156 18.9N 63.7W 1009 510000UTC 17.08.2026 168 20.5N 65.9W 1008 35

PDS tornado warning NE of Streator.

This is not only the coldest CFSv2 forecast for JFM made in summer for the SE US to C Plains part of the U.S. in El Niño, it is by a good margin THE coldest JFM forecast for this area that I could find made from any season and in any ENSO back to the start of the CFSv2 in 2012! This is extreme, folks!