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If you look at the DC sounding at 7am, it is clearly close enough for snow even if Nam is correct.

Pretty close range with 8.8 expected and 10 being the 10% boom scenario.

Looks much farther north. The moderate snows around here start 9 hours earlier than the previous run.

So if like in 30-32 go with Kuchie but below that go off QPF? thanks for the knowledge, now I see why Kuchie has such an abtibias Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

precip always off on models i am sure you compare nam, euro etc they would be off too

Parent NAM (ugh) is still a morning changeover, but it looks like ~0.5" QPF, so same ballpark as the HRRR. Not a catastrophe.

good I'm down with that.

Whatever snow falls is going to turn into a glacier. Not gonna stress about totals.

Glad it's falling for ya.

Yes, it will be a battle in the southern tier counties tomorrow afternoon. This HRRR run shows heavy snow for everyone through at least noon. Then southern York & Lanco mix & it inches back & forth in the LSV. Harrisburg, Carlisle & Lebanon stay all snow this run until early evening. Then all of the LSV is mixing through the evening as rates back down according to this run.

Beech Mountain Resort Cam - Resort Cams

the mean for you 13.9" #imwinninthesnowfallcontest

One more quick statement and then I will just lurk again until something changes here, One of the guys I trust most on our sub forum is confident that the upper level temps are also dropping fast enough that there will actually be more snow than previously expected here. I hope it verifies and pushes east for you all.

NAM through 24 is nearly identical to 6z.

https://smartway.tn.gov/allcams?region=Memphis Memphis is cold and white.

NAM looks north again.

Ignore it for the coastline. Snow depth is a diagnostic product from each modeling system. It's masked for bodies of water... If you interpolate snow depth from a body of water (always 0") to a place over land (>>>0", in this case), it'll always have a tight gradient for coastal locations.

10 to 1. Will make the onry Met happy.

Not very organized down south yet hope things look better this afternoon/evening

7AM

I was thinking that too. Seems possible.

WB 12Z NBM para

12z NAM Snow arrives between 3 - 5 AM

You may want to check the mountains thread. We including myself are seeing snow right now.