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Yeah looking very grinchy this year.

Wish I could believe it

lol are we really just tossing the most skilled guidance right now in favor of the GFS and CMC? if the euro showed rain and the GFS showed snow i'm sure that wouldn't happen

We just have to be grateful for any snow we can get when the Pacific Jet is this extreme.

6z Eps

JB agrees with Roundy about a brief break in the cold.

The question for me is would it be worthwhile to come up very early Thursday morning for this upslope event? The one drawback is the strong wind gusts.

JB agress with Paul Roundy in regards to a milder break ahead . He does say right back to cold after that .

yeah.... good way to describe. I sometimes liken as NAVGEM-ish too

It just looks cartoon resolved with that one particular metric is all. It's not one or the other, tho. It can be developed more and mashed S of CT with flurries on the Cape too.

I love seeing the resorts get crushed early. Played hooky last Thursday to hit Timberline opening day and the conditions were immaculate. Deep winter with flurries all day and great powder. Would love to be up there today in the Blizzard warning (I think).

They always look like an ensemble product to me beyond 24-48hrs.

we're due for our annual mid winter severe event

I think it depends on whether it develops at all in the mid levels prior to passing by...if not, then probably overdone.

JB this morning: While the MJO is shown in the charts to be in the null phase. The current way we get there is has a strong vv pulse coming through the Indian Ocean that is associated with phases 3/4. and those are very warm in December. And this looks correct to me. But its coming and going fast and that cold is building in Canada. It collapses and in the 10-15 we are back to a phase 8/1 look. So I would expect a rapid response back the other way after that So I think Paul Roundy has a good idea here and after I got a chance to look, I agree with his assessment

Had 2.8" at home and it had switched to rain, side streets were a mess but the freeway was fine.

Euro was ruined with the latest update a few years ago. The model use to nail storms days out.

I could see a low-end warning if everything broke right.

Did AI do well with the last event or fail miserably? I don’t recall

Peoria looking like the better spot to be for the first wave. Northern IL is trending towards a dog turd duster on the globals.

Those solutions look over-produced with QPF to me. Just a gross linear correlation based upon experience, so tfwiw; flat 1000+ mb surface waves suffocating amid a compressed non-hydrostatic field don't have envelopes that extend so far along their northern arcs. More typically, that's a narrow band. If this AI is self-learning as it is espoused as being, I suspect that is a lessen it is about to learn.

Yeah that’s pretty much the perfect way to describe it. This thing has always had a lower ceiling, but I wouldn’t shut the door on something minor yet.

6z Euro is looking good for the late Saturday night into Sunday chance of an Advisory type of potential.

It's not ideal, but correctable with ease at this range, especially given the sensitivity to subtle changes that we are seeing in guidance as a result of the phase on the fly.

That’s not a bad look at this early stage. I think we see imported on out.