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Both HRRR & RRFS are too slow, and not far enough SW with the ongoing convection

Reverse jinx. THIS IS OUR MOMENT

It’s over for us up here.

I don't know. Keene always seems to get whacked .

Possibly. HRRR if you go with it would be essentially a moderate cancel. I’d downgrade if I were the SPC at this time

Possibly. HRRR if you go with it would be essentially a moderate cancel. I’d downgrade if I were the SPC at this time

With the exception of tomorrow temperatures over the next week should be near normal for late June with highs in the upper 70's to lower 80's. Thursday will be our warmest day of the week along with a chance of some showers. Lows over the weekend will return to the comfortable 50's for most spots across the area. Shower chances increase by Sunday night and through Monday.

With the exception of tomorrow temperatures over the next week should be near normal for late June with highs in the upper 70's to lower 80's. Thursday will be our warmest day of the week along with a chance of some showers. Lows over the weekend will return to the comfortable 50's for most spots across the area. Shower chances increase by Sunday night and through Monday.

Same with 3K NAM. Get me to 80+ and maybe we see something.

Yeah it's beyond horrible...good luck getting an update on a short term event even though there's an updated time stamp.

Stratiform rain dying overhead. At least my garden will be happy

I suspect this will end up designated as a subtropical storm.

I'll be happy if we get some thunder later just not loving the late September vibes outside rn

Would love for any of this moisture to be funneled up this way.

Looks like things have gotten off to a hot start. Midwest storms go brrrr

The new forecast discussion is horrible

12z HRRR a bit more intrigued with tomorrow

Not sure if i get the EF4 tor threat mentioned on this MD for the morning convection

Hasn't been any better up there.

Another potentially epic Midwest outbreak hosed by a morning wind bag. Tale as old as time.

Low level recon is in there now and finding TS winds. But we’ll see if there’s any real organization.

CANSIPS clearly has a Modoki look just viewing H5 next winter...don't have to look at SSTs. CFS has a more east-based look. My guess is it will look more like the CFS in the seasonal mean given how strong the event is going to be, but I could certainly see a stretch from latter January into February looking like the CANSIPS. I suspect we won't see a wall-to-wall furnace, although I'm sure Bluewave and the climate changer will be quoting tweets declaring it the warmest winter on record across the CONUS.

Yes, we definitely maximized the precip we received in the form of snow/ice.

I’d be happy with sub severe 90% of the time. Doesn’t have to be classic plains/midwest tops to 80,000 feet stuff..It looks like I’ll be moving to southern NH in the next two years so hopefully that’ll improve my lot a little

I don't think there has been a situation ever involving a nearby boundary and GFS based products or NBM based products actually throw out numbers suggestive of not warm sectoring. This is going to be a big problem when its basically just NBM for a text based product