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I love a high frequency of smaller events. Pack sustained and always looking fresh

Hit 50.6 degrees briefly about noon here, first time above 50 since 11/27. Was a high haze/cloud cover, now lowered clouds, looks like rain soon. Temp down to 47.8 degrees at 1:30 pm.

sir, this is a La Nina

Absolutely.

I doubt it would. It isn't about hitting climo averages. I think most would sign for a 3 footer and then spring. I'd sign for 1" a day for the next 4 mos myself.

No, I agree a low first half of a season correlates with a low season in general...what I am saying is that a very low December is a much more dire signal in a cool ENSO season than in a warm ENSO. Side note...that response sounded more abrasive than I intended...wasn't trying to be a dick.

Temp is up to 46 here -- the mildest day in quite awhile. But the last couple days really felt like deep winter with 6 inches of snow on the ground and frigid temps. It was a real treat for winter lovers to have that situation in mid December. Now though the snow is melting quickly.

I could see a marginal get thrown up for far eastern CT/RI/SE MA. the NAM would certainly argue it but sometimes the NAM gets a little overzealous with elevated in stability in these setups. NAM does have a pocket of steeper mid-level lapse rates (and greater CAPE) but I think its overdone in that regard. The key for eastern areas will be little to no shower activity ahead of the main area

We need blocking. These NS waves are cute for a day or two, but this area needs a region-wide snowstorm with overrunning moisture from the south on top of a slow moving, dense dome of arctic air blocked by a downstream traffic jam.

I bet a marginal goes up for us on Friday... wouldn't be shocked.

Yeah I agree, I definitely would like to start getting some bigger systems, but if we can pull off a good two week stretch where we get 3-4 systems in the 2-4" range...I would hope that makes everyone a bit happier lol.

I actually get the occasional blizzard dream and we are due. I might regret selling my jeep in a month or two.

While the longwave pattern is kind of ugly (and it’s an unstable look), the shear number of shortwaves flying through the flow will give us some chances. So while the probability of any one of these succeeding in being a 4”+ snow event is pretty low, if we have several chances, maybe one of them delivers. Most of us would be fine with a couple inches that gets us to Christmas but once the holiday has passed, I want some bigger systems.

melting pretty good here with some sun and temps at 42

I’d rather ride the line here than be in Missouri with no hope.

There’s a 100% chance of something and a 0% chance that anyone knows with 100% certainty.

Check out the widespread much lower H5 for nearly the entire E US on the 12Z GEFS vs the 6Z GEFS as of 0Z 12/30 helped mainly by the apparently even stronger -NAO:

Avalanches of snow sliding off the solar panels. Its wild

The 27-29 period looks like it could be interesting

These images show that the GEFS was too slow in showing the transition from the very strong -PNA of Dec 2021 to the strong +PNA of Jan of 2022: 12/15/21 GEFS PNA forecast was ok But the 12/26/21 GEFS PNA forecast, which goes through 1/9/22, had all members 0 to -2 for then. The actual 1/9/22 ended up being +0.2. So, it was too slow in predicting the turn to a +PNA: 12/31/21 GEFS PNA forecast out to 1/14/22: finally turned to +PNA but not positive enough as 1/14 was actually +0.7 vs this forecast for ~+0.4: 1/5/22 GEFS PNA forecast out to 1/19/22: not positive enough as 1/19 was actually +1.0 vs this forecast for only ~+0.1: This shows the actuals for the entire Dec-Jan 2021-2:

Couple inches of snow….hopefully it keeps trending just a touch colder. Better than yesterday’s chinook on Xmas eve. Has another messy system on 12/26 too.

the term messy doesn't inspire confidence

That’s the one

One of the more impressive December shifts from colder to warmer across the CONUS since 2000.