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6z euro ai continues back north. Almost looks like the runs a couple days ago now with over 1” for DC

I’d take that in a hot minute if I knew it was right

The AI models have shifted north since yesterday afternoon . For Augusta, 3 pm Wednesday was .30". At 6 am today is .88". As a result, the WPC has shifted from .35" to 1.00" Its easy to see that the WPC is biased toward AI.

I don't love the look of the CANSIPS in February....that looks rather suppressed at peak climo.

Hey now! You still have the best park job ever at G&M's pulling that car into a tiny spot! Hoping for a better than average winter with this super Nino. If it resemembles 82-83, with a December event, the smaller event before the Feb 11-12 event and then a big one, I'd be thrilled. I was Nothern Delaware for the 83 event but LYH had 14-18 region wide in 83.

We can officially uninstall after tomorrow. All good things must come to an end.

Frost concerns next week? I see my forecasted low of 37 next week one day and we radiate pretty good put here

Thw majority of the precipitation during the 1992 storm happened when the low was over the Chesapeake, the reason the first 2/3 of the storm was rain. When the low moved offshore we promptly turned to snow. The reason the snow totals were relatively low was a lot of it fell as white rain until the evening (I remember the storm very well as I was working at a grocery store pushing cwrts outside). This past storm the winds stayed NE/NNE until the storm moved west. Therefore would have been snow. When the storm ocluded we would have actually turned back to snow. February 2010 is a good example where the CT coast was rain UNTIL the storm moved SW and we turned to snow even with the precip coming in from the SE.

October Cansip update

WB 9Z NBM: models went south overnight...

Another 80°+ day coming up on Friday. That will get Newark to 115 days this year. It will leave 2026 only 3 days behind 2015. Also 6 consecutive years in the top 10 for most 80° days. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Top 10 for most 80° days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2015 118 0 2 2024 117 0 3 2021 116 0 4 2026 114 92 - 1994 114 0 5 2016 113 0 - 1993 113 0 - 1991 113 0 6 2011 111 0 - 2010 111 0 7 2023 110 0 8 2022 109 0 9 1959 108 0 10 2025 106 0 - 2007 106 0

Much different October El Niño pattern than we have seen in the past. The ridges are significantly further south than usual. One ridge east of Japan and another over the CONUS. Similar to the pattern we have been seeing since last May. This stronger mid-latitude ridge is the same pattern driving the -PDO +AMO. The strongest October El Niño ridge is typically in the EPO region of Alaska and NW Canada. Also different from 1997 with the strong -WPO and 2015 with the -EPO. So a further south 500 mb ridge axis from those years also. While the early September model forecast correctly got the ridge east of Japan, the ridge over North America is setting up much further south.

That a good price for coal! I have a Harmon stoker myself, probably 25 years old. But probably going to not burn as much coal this year. We will see how the winter goes. 60 degrees this morning.

US National Weather Service State College PA September featured warm and wet conditions across much of Central PA. Above average warmth was largely driven by very mild nighttime temperatures. Measurable rainfall was recorded on nearly half of the days in the month.

looks like a low of 58 here

Min of 54° to start Octorcher

Miller lite?

Glad your trip worked out, Mrs. J. The line of storms is starting to build just west of us; maybe we will get some rain after all.

Those are Miller Meh’s here typically. Compares to the mid Atlantic anyways.