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Luckily the EpS and GEPS are better

I think im in a good spot for this one, im due, got a dusting for the last storm.

Not a perfect pattern is +450dm -PNA Aleutian ridge and <5000dm in Alaska.. it's an extreme shift. If the PNA were like +100dm, could have snowed marginally? Sure.

High 46, low 20. Looks like no more real cold nights here for awhile.

I don’t know. We’ve been in a bad pacific and Atlantic cycle simultaneously. Past examples of this were low snowfall periods too. But this one was about 20% worse! Do I think Baltimore ever gets back to averaging 23” over a 30 year period…no. But so o think our mean is really about 12” now? God I hope not. And I do think we could still see a cycle where we get a favorable PDO and nao and Baltimore could get a 10 year period it averages 20” But my bigger issue here is some of the people who are the biggest leaders of the “it’s not because of warming” band are also the ones acting like we need a fooking perfect pattern with a epo pna ridge and arctic air to get snow. Which ignores the reality of why was a huge part of our snow climo! They can’t have it both ways. They can’t say we can’t snow without a perfect pacific AND cry “climate change has nothing to do with it” because that would be a freaking change. We didn’t used to need the pacific to be perfect to get snow. Lately yes. But that’s why it’s sucked lately. And some of the same ppl saying this is just cyclical are also the ones saying “it dsnt possibly snow with a less than perfect pattern”. Ok if that true then it is climate change because it wasn’t that way and that’s a change.

Top 5 days over 12 this alone with way BN temps gives this winter so far a solid A

If anyone has a moment, I’d love your thoughts on this “NW-flow snow favorability” map (especially whether it’s capturing the patterns you’d expect). Mobile is a bit rough unless you rotate to landscape. I’ve wanted mountain property for decades, so I’m doing as much pre-analysis as I can haha. http://44.197.87.201:3839

It's just one of those system that doesn't pass the "smell test" when some of these meso models try to sniff a few lines and border on warning criteria...like when we see a over 12" printed out for run-of-the-mill SWFE....NOT one with an incredibly anomalous airmass like last month.

Some good company above 6 inches cover BDL

Meanwhile… https://x.com/maxvelocitywx/status/2020978881654616111?s=46 .

Everything coming in warmer for most of CT. Looks like mostly sleet/freezing rain/rain. Snow northern tier of state.

I think 1-3” is prob the best forecast at the moment down in the pike region. We are relying on like 3 hours of WAA precip.

Took this pic from Jersey City looking across the Hudson. Actually been checking over the past week and was disappointed to see not much ice. But today there was, and tomorrow will probably look better.

Great another cold and dreary spring.

Of course warmest will outpace coldest with global land areas averaging 3F warmer than where the avg was in 1900. If you were to subtract 3F from recent years of records, wouldn’t cold anomalies be on par with warm anomalies?

I would err on the side of caution with H5 so far north.

As I was driving past Little Neck Bay today I was amazed to see the whole thing frozen. I havent seen that in years. And then I was floored to see it frozen thru the Throgs Neck Bridge. I have never seen that! Over the past few weeks I have been playing whack a mole with frozen pipes. I dont want warmth yet but normal 30s day 20s night will feel…good

Snow cover days

week later

Absolutely. GFS is wintry to start and then flips to rain. CMC and Icon are pretty good for our area. Euro can’t seem to make its mind up. Plenty of time for adjustments. I’m rooting for this one to give a nice 3”-6” on top of what’s left after the “thaw” that is this week. Even though highs have been below freezing, that sun angle is doin numbers on my southern exposure. I have liquid runoff almost every day it gets full sun

Only shot of 4" is up by like Amesbury.

this is false?

You havent been paying attention since 2015 then hahaha. All kidding aside, my gut (and a long range forecast) tells me the bulk of winter is behind us

Both 2003-2004 and 2002-2003 were about 0.4F behind at this point. Still quite cold but tied for 23rd while this year is tied for 17th

Yeah. It’s zonked up near you. But I sorta agree with it there. any idea how it determines ratios in that version?