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Again, the metros all got measurable December snow with DCA coming to within less than a quarter inch of the average for 1991-2020 climo. Most of the time in a dreg season the metros would still be waiting for their first snowfall.

Hey @HoarfrostHubb, I think you have an electric snowblower. You mind telling me how you like it and how big it is? Do you do a large area with it? My folks driveway is about 100' x 30' so I'm wondering if it'll have enough power to do that.

Yeah your last sentence is key. If you ignore everything else and just look at ensemble mean D10-15 plots, that is the opposite of “shit the blinds and get ready for spring”. -AO, -EPO, +PNA, tropospheric PV in our hemisphere, neutral to -NAO, broad continental trough over eastern 2/3rds. That all says winter to me. Do we underachieve and waste it? Always a chance and maybe a decent chance due to residual Nina-ness.

Whatever happens with the temperatures tomorrow and Friday, Saturday looks suspect to me. That looks like meso-low/'tuck' times. We are at the eastern end of a warm boundary that is pinned along or S of L.I., with +D(PP) moving across QUE, with damming already nosing down to the Pike like that? good luck. Might even end up being another ZR issue with that.

Good flakes now.

Wow, they need to expand that y-axis. We're not seeing the full ensemble mean spread for late summer because it's cutoff by the current y-axis. Some of those individual model runs must be at or near BOE criteria as well.

@michsnowfreak31.3" in 1995-1996? Holy $hit....I had 127.5"....that must be the only time in recorded history, and likely ever, that Philly received more in one event than you did for the season. Although 2009-2010 was closer in the Baltimore area...

Yes sir, I had a brief shower that dented the gauge to the tune of 0.1" between 9pm and 10pm.

CFSv2 has been doing that since 2020, give or take. A better system, UFS, is linked below: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/jszhu/seaice_seasonal/index.html

These small birches were bent over in the March 18 paste storm and are still bent crooked in 25

Debating with myself over here, as I see some Cocorahs peeps in Lancaster reported .01 or .02 inches of precip. I would say they fell for the heavy dew trap but then I see a few WU stations right near me reported .01-.02" around the 9-10pm timeframe last night, which would seem to nullify the dew theory. Is it possible I missed a little shower late last evening? Can any of my local friends chime in on whether we got rain or not? Got to keep those KMJS books accurate!

31 this morning and frost. Big temperature ranges

8.75". Been a microcosm of the last 8 years for me...I'm always too far in one direction or another, and/or too close/far from the ocean. Infuriating.

It's actually nice. I'm getting in a day of work. My business is open this week. Great time of year for big discounts on house washing, deck and patio restoration. 53

From a met in the NE forum. Sign me up! “Seems a pretty straightforward setup for back half Jan, rebuild source region in western Canada late next week/weekend, likely leaking cold into the northast at times with GOA ridging (-EPO) beyond. Chances for coastals during transition periods, and perhaps a more active southern stream from MLK and after.”

That was a record ridge, though....didn't see anyone forecast that magnitude.

The 1998 ice storm left a nice-looking white birch bent nearly 90°. The tree was 7-8" diameter and had been 45-50 feet tall. When I noticed it was lifting a bit, I tossed a rope over it about 25 feet from the stump, attached the rope to my come-along and to another tree. Every few days I'd cinch up the rope and by mid-April the tree was back to nearly vertical. We then moved to New Sharon on May 15 so I've no idea how that birch is doing now. About 2" here, with off-on light snow, temp low 20s.

Decent slug of freezing rain and 30 degrees on the Auburn/Worcester line. We went from a 2 hour delay to closed around 8 AM, and it was the right call (my students had no idea a delay might be in the cards until I mentioned it yesterday). .

Full sun is MOST welcome for me anyway to start the day. Happy with 50s too. Need a mental weather reset after too many days of cold and gray with no snow.

Sh.it is everywhere in CT. Every few months the firm changes the billboards with a new theme. Right now they're in some kind of Jets football theme. They've had famous actors and athletes represented on those advertisements for years, including Jared Goff, who is not related to founder Brooke Goff, but the clever marketing off of the same last name is pretty smart.

Yeah…was at least hoping for a good soaker. Trending towards rain but not as beefed up as prior runs. .

Snowing lightly again in Simsbury.

Actually the MET was 50 at FIT for tomorrow off the 00z output. I'm surprised a MOS product was that high.

I agree and hope people don't take my previous post to mean I'm cancelling winter. But I see how it might have been taken that way. My point was just that in a vacuum a nina fading isn't necessarily a good thing. I tend to think the fact that the results have actually been WORSE in those instances is just a fluke of a small sample size, and while I do think the factors I mentioned above mean the odds don't automatically go up when a nina fades...we can get snowy periods during a cold enso, or even a neutral. Flukes happen. 2000 we had nothing going into late January and then one of our snowiest 10 day periods of the last 30 years. 2005-6 we had some snow in december then nothing until a MECS in mid February. 1999 was awful then we got a snowy period in March. Same with 2018. And these things can happen in an enso neutral following a nina also, it's probably just the small sample size that we haven't run into it yet. All that to say I do think we get snow the rest of the way. I don't know how much. My expectations are starting to lower some, we largely wasted several chances the first 1/3 of winter and that has to be factored in. But I do not think we get shut out the rest of the way. The pattern doesn't look like the examples of dreg shut out type winters at all.

Charlton must get getting whacked right now. tiny snow and sleet grains here