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Every six hours we pull out the sorting hat.

Looks like EPS trended the boundary more south. Good for now, but don't want too much suppression (still unlikely)

Yeah every model kept coming west. Gfs of course back then was lagging.

Appreciate it, honestly I haven’t been looking too hard - just doing a little light complaining lol. I would def be happy with a half inch.

You're in on it for Sunday on the AI guidance. Hopefully the op runs keep ticking NW/expanding the precip field the next few cycles.

Something to watch tonight for us snow starved weenies. The HRRR is trying to bring a band of rain/snow mix and some minor accumulations in the upper foothills

The short-range models completely missed this little low or whatever it is.

Good luck gentlemen! Headed to Japan next week, hope I’m talking about feet of snow while I’m skiing out there. Maybe I’ll remember to take pics for once ha!

Remember the storm modeled on or around 3/17/17 that was showing 12"+ for a good part of New England, then completely evaporated? I think it was withing 48-72..I know not the same idea but that was a pretty drastic change.

Ahh yes...thought it was later in the season. That was a brutal, brutal bust.

This thread being “hot” and walking into this discussion must be quite the letdown for anyone just catching up

That was March of 2018.

Welcome to the shaft zone.

I’m not exactly stoked about the Ensembles from what I could tell. Perhaps I’m missing something. Hard to score below Roxboro in that pattern.

Then there’s between the 2…

SO much chaos in the northern stream. Kick some of that out and it's almost automatically going to help modeling produce more consistently. JMO.

Correct, tomorrow favors us in the NW, Sunday favors your folks bay and east.

Maybe in retrospect a separate thread might have been better- we have 2 camps of folks in here talking past each other lol

Have had flurries. Keep the column ready for later.

Definitely shows more on the ridge-tops versus valleys. Seems a generally 1-3” looks best with higher elevation lollipops of 4-5” possible .

Its kind of amazing how quick the models snapped onto the 12z solution. Wonder how/why models went from all the variance to locking in like that.

The biggest bust I can think of (in the opposite direction) was February 2018? (don't remember the date). It looked like a good chunk of SNE was inline for like 12-18" but the confluence to the north screwed us and Long Island got smoked. Southern CT barely ended up with more than a few inches.

E MA wants the ocean storm to come west and anyone from Ray to Innedsnow to ORH down thru here and CT wants it to trend east so tomorrow drops back SE like yesterday. I know what I hope happens . Which won’t

I can only remember one really bad Ice storm growing up. It hit in the middle of the day while I was in school. It came out of nowhere and half of us kids were stuck at school until up in the day. February 94 definitely fits that's timeline.