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One failed but after another the last few winters.

Different here for sure

We don’t even need a super Nino for winter to get cancelled around here. The last two winters were cancelled by the usual crowd and they were the best winter in years for much of this board.

Awesome days. Football and hockey in full swing…baseball playoffs…basketball gearing up. It’s a wonderful time of year. Color has been excellent from what I’ve seen but in spots. Dull in others. Not like the NNE region imo where it seemed to be generational everywhere at peak.

Mid Atlantic winter

Judah Cohen coping ? Canceling winter in October is foolish. We go through this every year.

I've taken that train from Williams. It's pretty cool to go through the different climate zones. Higher elevation in Willams with the Ponderosa pines, down through desert and back up to the South Rim. I loved that area. After that we drove down to Sedona. It was a beautiful drive.

People are now talking about how Google Deep-mind ensembles beat the other ones on Hurricane Isaias.

Agree with you Blizz. I believe December will be cold watch Thanksgiving weekend. January through mid February warmer than normal and the mid February though mid March normal temp with above normal precipitation. Lots of rain/snow to Rain events. And then mid February to March is our time for a huge ending. Just my opinion so we shall see what really happens.

Peak color here this week but pretty meh overall . Not the best year

These are special days. Very hard freeze last night, lawn so white it looked like it snowed, with a low of 26F. Then pop a 70-burger this afternoon, driving around in shorts and a T-shirt with windows down. 44-degree swing from hard freeze to sliders and windows open. Even shorts weather up at 3,000ft right now.

Chad Merrill senior meteorologist and long-range expert at AccuWeather says “we’re looking at a very warm winter ahead.” https://www.audacy.com/kdkaradio/news/local/pittsburgh-winter-forecast Merrill breaks it down month by month: End of October: Expect a cold snap around Halloween that lasts into early November before warming up again. November: “November will bring a couple of cold days and probably the first snow of the season, sometimes in the middle-to-later part of November.” December: Merrill expects temperatures to be three-to-four degree above average. “It will be one of the warmest months of the winter season.” January: Two-to-three degrees above average February: A degree or two above average. That doesn’t mean it won’t be cold, or even freezing at times, but Merrill doesn’t expect a long, sustained deep freeze this winter. Snow forecast: 20 to 35 inches of snow is expected, which is well below the average of around 44 inches. “We are looking at three to five days with two inches of snow, last year, over seven,” said Merrill. He adds there will be 20 to 30 days of getting a tenth of an inch. That’s lower compared to the 39 we had last year. Merrill says the reason for the above average temperatures is “very strong” El Nino. With that El Nino will mean more moisture in our area, and with above average temperatures, that means rain, with Merrill saying there could even be some thunderstorms in the winter. With above average temperatures expected, that doesn’t mean there won’t be cold streaks. Merrill expects colder air to come though in time for Christmas heading into 2027.

Dry Stretch ahead

Lol, I’ve been around on here a little bit during the offseason! I really don’t do outlooks or predictions of my own, but I do read the upcoming Winter thoughts of pro forecasters & respected posters from the various regional forums on this website. The main theme with this strong El Niño appears to generally show that above normal average temperatures are likely for December & possibly average above normal throughout the Winter. In terms of snow, there should be a greater chance of high impact coastal storms. Of course, the unknown is if we can time up some periods of at least normal seasonal cold, especially during the heart of Winter from mid January to mid February. The hope for snow lovers is that we can time up an active subtropical jet with some periods of blocking with it being just cold enough. The 1 historic storm & done type of Winter is on the table as well, such as 2016 or 1983. Maybe we get lucky with extended periods of blocking, with several chances, such as 09-10 ? Maybe it’s just too warm for much snow, such as the Winters of 97-98 or 19-20 ? Hopefully we will have a chance of at least 1 block buster snowstorm in the heart of Winter! Either way, I look forward to tracking it all with you guys on here again this season!

the cope is spiraling out of control and it's not even november

Highs near 60 with a chilly start to the day with lows in the 20's inland to 30's along the shoreline this morning. Really need more rain, but that's looking meager for the rest of the month.

I know there is a launch tomorrow morning, but that is out of Florida.

Maple tree from a couple of days ago we'll see way more bright colors, I think, with low temps getting lower, but not freezing

Honestly, the funniest thing about the strong Nino this coming winter is that everyone in the north/northeast is prepared for a winter subpar to their climo. Expectations are set. It’s actually the troll comments that there will be no winter at all (in places that would see multiple snows in their warmest winter on record), that will look absolutely ridiculous next spring.

As always, if it doesn't happen on or around the time as proged, we may be in trouble. Fwiw, today’s weeklies establish the trough around the GOA the first week of November and holds it through the last week. We won't have long to wait. P.s. Today's weeklies put a nice hit on the PV too. This has been advertised for a few days now. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202610190000

DTW lows the last 3 days 37F, 35F, 38F. Light frosts each day, with freezes in the colder spots. Might not see a cloud all week, but what better weather for peak Fall color peeping?

42 at 7:50 am. No 30's this go-round. Next time.

64 and beautiful today