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A dying primary in SW PA associated with ull won't do as you said. Need those features in TN Valley

It’s good! it’s bad! it’s gooder than earlier! it’s worser than earlier! It’s more amped! it’s less amped! it’s a hair south! it’s a hair north! good stuff in the main thread. Totally clear. Any way to restrict that thread to mods, red taggers and a few select extra learned non-red taggers?

Don't even get me started on "plausible." Sigh.

ICON sucks for thermals, such a warm bias. I dont recall it ever showing mix precip between rain and snow lines.

The problem is the phasing. Without it you risk suppression, with it you risk a lot of mixing. You don't have an ideal setup out west given the trough placement.

Dont radio show jinx it, please.

It's the high res version of the GFS so....

So far excellent trends this morning for more snow and less ice. I hope it continues.

12z NAM and RGEM look further south with the sleet than 6z fwiw comparing f78 to f84 .

Does anyone remember seeing such a widespread map? TW

God the NAM is super amped. 12z even moreso than 6z. That would end up as a lot of sleet - ZR even towards the end. Pray it's wrong. ECM, ECM-AI, and GFS looked solid overnight however.

1/22 12Z NYC area Total QPF / (Snow/Sleet) using 10:1 NAM (84H) : 0.7 / (6.7) RGEM (84H): 1.0 / (9.0) ICON : 1.4 / (8.5)

the mid level low is tracking pretty far NW to hope for any meaningful snow on the back end. Typically we need that to be tracking over us or to our south for that to work out...its tracking well to our NW. Unless we see that change I would not really put any stock in any significant snow on the back end.

I do remember the horrible ice storm that hit Knoxville my senior year at UT...1982...and I believe it was early February. Also, seem to remember it was bad in Kingsport too. It was quite the sight to see Cumberland Avenue become an ice rink.

The number of epic Late January continues.

I wonder if anything was mixed in with the snow. The roads this morning were unusually slushy for 1-2" of snow with temps in the upper 20s.

For old times sake can we have the storm mode in bright red at the top of the page? maybe a radio show too

40 otg is tough

You say that as if the synoptic setup hasn’t changed significantly in 4 days. hindsight is 20/20, but at the time it looked significantly colder

It's not weenieism to expect a modest de-amp going into the short range. The majority of big storms have a series of mid range model runs that go all ham and then back off inside of 48-72 hours. Every storm is unique and I'm not making any definitive calls and I'm nearly certain that big snow is off the table but I'm feeling OK that big ice threat will keep slowly backing off each model suite.... famous last words lol...

Thanks @SACRUS for your map postings last 24 hours or so. I'm on the road today so nice to pull over and scroll through here to get a sense of what the models are doing even if I don't have time to look at upper level stuff etc. I have to say the RDPS and ICON secondary placement is not bad. Just have to get it going fast enough to halt the warming mid levels. If it gets going fast enough it could keep the immediate interior mostly snow. Either way 6-8 / 6-10 seems like a good call based on the early guidance so far this morning. Higher end of range with some upside potential if secondary cooperates.

How reliable is the FV3? That thing is downright cold with initial thump for the forum.

And that's just thru 84 hours wow still about 12 hours left after that