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Given how crappy the previous 4 winters have been, this winter has been outstanding. We can't always have a 1992-93, 1995-96, 2004-05, or 2014-15 every time for a "good" winter. CoastalWx mindset: "If it is not a Bliz of '13 RIPPER w/ everything but the kitchen sink falling out of the sky, I'm dissatisfied!"

I can’t believe the dumb ass Wizards beat the best team in the Eastern Conference tonight. I hate them.

It's PT time for CoastalWx! RRFS FTW! Such a slow evolution of the 500 trough over New England Sat-Sun. It just doesn't sweep though, it elongates and cuts off for some really good OES weenie bands IMHO. 500 temps drops as low as -38 C, which is about as cold as you will see them in the NEUS. -40 C at 500 in the CONUS does not happen too often, and I think the limit at 500 for temps is around -50 C (coldest I have seen in NAMR is -51 C). There is some physical atmospheric reason why it can't get colder than this I recall, but I forget the reason why.

Thanks

0z runs looking anemic for the frontal passage

Active pattern coming with a few snow chances

Active pattern coming with a few snow chances

Sleetfest 1&2 Not enough sleet on this stuff it collapses

Probably after that 6" sleetfest. Sledding was amazing for that, stopping was interesting!

Those old things worked once for me the year was 2007

I hate to see such large discrepancies in anomalies when comparing sources. It’s not comforting to say the least. Maybe they are and I have no evidence to the contrary at least right now, but how do you know for sure that the 2m temp forecasts themselves between Euro native and WB are the same?

Lol, I hear you!

Lately we’ve been seeing the light, consistent refreshes. Not gaining depth but maintaining it through low-QPF NW flow. Hopefully we can see a more synoptic density event soon. The fluff doesn’t do much.

They say it’s one of the best in years. If we don’t get a top 8 pick I’m going to lose my shit.

I finished +1 for November, but with 2 inches of snow. -1 for December and -3 for January. It's been a brutal winter stretch here with two significant winter storms and multiple small events. Even with BN precip/drought, after last night, I've recorded 17 inches of snow since November along with 1/2 inch of sleet and near a half inch of ice. If you look back on winters here, there are often extremes within them. December of '84 was very warm, similar to this late December period, and then we had January of '85.

By using that same logic the law of averages would assume we would have extensive cooler than average year(s) coming up too since we have been an endless year after year warm regime.

Read the room. It’s not difficult. You are not a regular contributor in here so dropping in for this stuff out of the blue is the wrong vibe.

If we named threads for threats like the main thread this one would've been mine a few days ago! Lol

Yep... I think it is now a foregone conclusion that there are going to be a couple of sweet spots... Lots of support, in my opinion, for a solid 3-5 inch zone across southeast CT northward along and either side of the CT/RI border area (I-395 corridor) eastward across much of RI; possibly parts of the Cape... But I expect a high-end advisory level / low-grade warning (4-8") somewhere in eastern Mass but not locked into the specific zone at this time; probably a nowcast call just before it really shows itself.

Is it possible this a Norlun-esque type of deal? Where it’s not well-forecasted on the models, but the quick intrusion of Arctic air causes chaos as it hits the Atlantic?

The 3k NAM is dropping 2 inches over my area Friday night. Not surprisingly, I'm going to Chattanooga for the Super Bowl this weekend. Debating on whether to leave tomorrow or Saturday.

I understand the skepticism, but those forecasts were relying on intense radiational cooling late at night, and clouds/wind seemed to wreck those opportunities. This will be pure advection of an intensely cold air mass, and it's legit arctic air. I think this has a much better chance (and I'd say it's very likely) of single digits.

Went for a night ride. Temp was around 0° and the stars were absolutely gorgeous. This was taken somewhere between Washington and Orange, VT by my son with his basic iPhone 17 camera. Came out decently despite the camera.

Easily, especially since the pack for most started with 1-2" otg from 1/17-18 and most of us got 1.5-1.9" frozen QPF on 1/25, even if it might've only been 11-12" in depth, since 3-4" of that was sleet for many. That's a lot of frozen QPF to melt (and not much of it has melted yet) and with temps only getting to around 40F late next week, I'd think most of the pack will still be here on 2/17, especially if we top it off tomorrow and a bit next week.

Icy Old Pier along Rock Creek