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I can see it coming from the west, but still overcast here…Almost too late

@CAPE gets his revenge for missing out on Isaias

Id take 1877-78 again. Nice Jan/Feb after a slow start. Never even knew there was enough documentation to confirm a 1790s el nino episode.

Freeze Watch just extended into the outer NW suburbs of Baltimore and DC. @asalt1 @HighStakes @wxmvpete and @mappy going to get chilly!

What an upside down world where someone who knows nothing about how weather works gets a red tag, meanwhile much of the rest of this thread is filled with so much knowledge from people who simply are hobbyists.

Yeah even though this endless summer has carried on im getting a freeze way sooner than last year.

Colors are really starting to pop especially after this weekend.

You are correct in that cape is limited, but the storm hasn't outrain anything, in fact, it's moved into a better environment as far as cape and lapse rates go. The inversions in both the mid and upper levels, is the most likely convective inhibiting mechanism. Thunder and lightning just started rocking out of this thing as it moves out into the distance.

Bottom half is popping E of the river. Heads up Lancaster folks

Sun out now . Fiyyaahh

Thunderstorms on the doorstep. Winds gusting to 36 mph ahead of the line. Temp has already dropped 12 degrees in the past 30 minutes, from 88 to 76.

yep and it will weaken east of the city-doubt there's anything severe for LI or CT

I’ll be back up in Banner Elk tomorrow. Keeping hope alive for a stray flake or two. Should be one of the cooler Woolly Worm festivals in recent memory!

A piece of the air mass that set a record low temperatures in parts of Canada last weekend will move into the region following the passage of the cold front now approaching the region. The frontal passage could be marked by showers and thunderstorms. The potential exists for some areas to experience a strong or severe thunderstorm. Following the frontal passage, the weekend will see the coldest temperatures so far this season. Highs in New York City will struggle to reach 50° on Saturday and rise only to the lower 50s on Sunday. Sunday morning could see the mercury slip into the 30s for the first time this season in New York City. The last time that happened this early in the season was during the 2015 El Niño. November was then much warmer than normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.03°C. ENSO Region 3.4 has set a new all-time record. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -25.21 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.202 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.4° (0.5° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Temperatures are not that chilly once the storms pass once the storms pass keep your windows closed so your heat won't go on tonight

All bark, and absolutely no bite down here as I expected. Only a couple raindrops. There might still be some rain coming in on the backside here.

I went from 79 to 56 behind the front.

It'll be in and out in 15 minutes. Surprised the watch is all the way til 10pm but I guess they have to

There was limited CAPE but I thought the line would pop. The forward speed increase might’ve had it outrun instability for the capital region.

as of 4:15 the line of storms is only about 25 miles or less wide extending from Scranton down through Harrisburg moving east fast at 40mph +

In terms of the degree of it being E based, the @griteater graph below suggests it will likely be nearest 1998 but with 1982 and 1877 not being far off. When also considering that 1997 wasn’t nearly as good a QBO match as 1982 and 1877 is unknown, perhaps 1982-3 is the best analog of these:

Yea, should be a good day for Oct festivals tomorrow albeit it a bit windy. Hit 90 only 6 times from May to Sept 26 and now have added 2 in October alone (not today).

Lol the surface is colder Sunday AM Look forward to this, this winter.