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The cape storm. He is still living off 2022

Thanks. I actually got the shot. So I assume it would have been worse if I hadn’t.

there has been no flip flopping on the GFS , Canadian and Euro Ops through Sunday Jan. 11 all 3 have the cold returning that day - its after that the models begin having differing opinions especially on any storm development and or tracks which is normal at that range...........

Horrible runs tonight so far. One step forward and 3 back

People are takin advantage of all the deep snow in the Woolly Lot and doin doughnuts LMAO! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam Coupla guys are jebwalking in the deep snow! Looks to be about ~ 9 inches deep or so...

Yeah that failed handoff is really weird and kinda implausible. The atmosphere likes to stray towards efficient energy conservation, the ping ponging of strengthening between the primary and coastal reflection doesn’t really reflect that principle. I would err towards the primary remaining the more cohesive entity given the modeled dynamics, at least for what the 0Z GFS spits out

Another disaster gfs run. No southern stream

Hope you feel better soon. I just got my flu shot which I hope helps. A little warmup won’t hurt anyone.

I'm not paying much attention to models currently. They're just wildly different run to run, model to model. The 0z GFS is 30+ degrees colder late run than the 0z AIGFS. Recently, the AI was 20-30 degrees colder than the regular GFS. For me, I'm going to see how things look in a week or so to see if the pattern moves forward.

It’s like the gfs gets confused and goes back and forth between strengthening the primary and the secondary. But regardless that’s a chilly solution up here in CAD land. We just can’t seem to ever buy a 40° day here in the heart of winter.

Can’t let this cyclone get wound up even a tad or it will cut. However if it gets shredded up into a SWFE, the weekend system is going to set up an intense boundary somewhere. North of that boundary will snow. A warm outcome is still the most likely path forward IMO given pattern fundamentals, but can’t deny the trends today as we emerge into a new time-scale paradigm for the period. It’s no longer looking like a huge ask to turn the tide here, at least for NNE

For that reason the 159hr cutter will become the typical lame SWFE some sleet to rain to prolong your suffering. Hope it's better soon. I just dealt with it and many of my friends and coworkers are sick too. Bad flu season.

0Z GFS continues the trend big time with a SFWE look that halts the warm front’s advance northward. Good to see deterministic guidance showing a cold look is possible.

Icon also turns the 1/10 storm into a SWFE.

This flu sucks. Would like a warm up so I can go outside and be able to breathe without it hurting

Brobdingnagian aggregates are hammering the Mammoth resort. This is getting ridiculous lol https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge Forecast overnight is for 3-7 inches. Sorry charlie we already got that much. We've only just begun...

I do! I realize that my innate tendency to jump way ahead to the next season and speculate doesn't mesh well here, but ah c'mon man it doesn't hurt. It's just speculation. And El Niño is currently starting to show signs of it's presence, so that part isn't about models not getting it right--as it does appear to be happening now, and it could influence THIS winter. Besides...who wouldn't wwant to have another swing at El Niño lined up for next year while we see what this one is gonna do? (I like a good back-up plan myself )

Trend = friend

Gfs lost the big cutter. It keeps squashing it on every run.

It can be a frustrating hobby, but the unexpected also makes it fun. The day will come when we’ll know on June 16th that it will snow the following February 4th for 5 hours before changing over to light drizzle with a total accumulation of 3.2”. I’ll accept the rugs pulls for the occasional unexpected overachievers. Guess I’ll always be an old timey weenie

The cutter keeps getting squashed on every gfs run.

Old school Big East still the best

Models can’t get week 2 right. Who cares about what next year may or may not deliver. Just my .02

yeah I still can't forgive UMD for leaving the ACC (although I understand it).