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It could be the case - out of curiosity what drove the persistent-ao this year? Looks like we do hit 8 once again but will see if its early enough.

It is kind of funny that while we had a cold winter, the vast majority of the country saw one of the warmest winters on record. Florida, even with the cold spell, saw their 2nd warmest winter, DJF period. Looking at the developing pattern, I do think spring will come in very quickly. I do think ski season will end up ending earlier than normal throughout the region. I also think this will be one of the warmer summers. Enjoy the snow cover while you can because it will be brown and muddy after it melts.

It’s starting to look likely that this SSW/split doesn’t downwell and couple with the troposphere later this month. This is following the theme we’ve seen recently where there is a disconnect between the stratosphere and troposphere and they don’t end up coupling @donsutherland1 @bluewave

Those big Canadian highs will keep popping but if you’re south of the boundary with zonal flow — oh well. West to east the CP airmass goes without doing much more than grazing your hood with one cold night and morning.

Fruit trees will be blooming. Hopefully not wiped out by freezes down the road.

60 days to go!!! Down to one final full month to get through

Also working against March and April snow is the fact that it seems decadal. 90s snowed often in March and April. 00s hardly snowed 10s snowed often 20s barely snows Of course all this is timing. If we were hitting phase 8 now and the current reversal happened 2 weeks ago we may be looking at heavy snow in March. Looking at the CPK snowfall chart, oddly it seems that when we have an above average snowfall December March is not snowy and vice versa (for example this year, 18/19, 13/14, 14/15 etc...). Only in rare winters like 95/96 and 02/03 do we have "wall to wall" snowfall. 13/14 came close but DC "stole the snow" that year.

Nope just chasing our tails like normal. One day, we'll catch them.

Jesus what a stretch for DC on south coming up.

Here’s the 6z GFS for overnight into Tuesday.

Thanks Don. This morning we are finally seeing a movement to phase 8 where previously it was stuck in 6. Also the wind reversal is imminent. Of course, all this may effect us too late where we would need everything line up perfectly (night, high rates, arctic air, track...).

The back for this winter had to break at some point. Hopefully it doesn’t come with backdoor fronts every week.

13° for the low here as well with 4.5" at the stake. .3" yesterday, 45.4" for the season.

I mean if he expects a week of freezing rain like he’s forecasting I salute him.

Starting to show movement to phase 8.

17 degrees this morning. Tomorrow looks like a lot of freezing rain.

The northern jet has been few hundred miles further south in the northeast than in recent years. It’s been very warm outside of that area—west, south etc. With climo into March, even if the persistence sticks, the jet persistence lifts north and the boundary for BN is north of us. Last Saturday with 50’s and no real warm front, gave us a taste of what’s close by in this pattern—we just need climo progression. With that, and no -NAO on the horizon , it makes sense that our first widespread 60+ degree days in months should arrive next week…

Enjoy the snow

So you’re forecasting a week of 30s and drizzle? Good luck.

Interesting to see that March is still reverting to the 2020s milder and less snowy mean even following our coldest and snowiest winter of the 2020s so far. March Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 46.5 46.4 2025 46.9 46.9 2024 48.1 48.1 2023 44.6 44.6 2022 45.3 45.3 2021 45.8 45.8 2020 48.0 48.0 March Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.1 0.1 2025 0.0 0.0 2024 T T 2023 0.1 0.1 2022 0.4 0.4 2021 T T 2020 T T

I'll be surprised if we end up missing out entirely in March...it definitely doesn't look as good as I thought since the stratosphere ended up delayed a few weeks, though. Not the worse thing in the world from a DJFM standpoint because it will chip into the negative margin relative to my seasonal forecast.

Why should we lock in a week of 70’s when every other one has failed? I hope it does. Winter is done as is snow. I’ll believe it when I’m sitting on my deck tanning next week in 70’s

extended looking like the worst of both worlds, miss south the warm thundery rains and no actual winter threats

Looks like mid month could offer something more wintry. Obviously tough to nail with confidence this far out but battleground nearby.

Stop being dumb and embrace Morch Kevin.