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We’ve found an AI that’s better with not messing up maps so hopefully that won’t be a problem going forward.

To add some numbers to this. taking my local station as an example, there is a chance HGR will run its current consecutive no precip streak into the 20's of days, possibly ending at 19 if it rains Thur. Ironically the same station already has one other such streak of 20 days this year ending in Feb. As you alluded to, 3 other years since 2017 have had similar strings around this time. Here is 2017-2026, including all months, with the Met fall data points highlighted.

Oh we can absolutely run into a big storm or two, but that’s not going to save a winter in NNE. I mean, I’m a very positive person but can’t spin a couple big storms in a sea of meh as a “not too bad” winter like 2015-16. The biggest problem is the lack of arctic shuts off our main snow divers in NW flow, lake effect, etc. That stuff probably accounts for at least half the mountain snow with synoptic the other half. These maps show how the lack of cold in Canada moving SEward really stunts snowfall in this area back towards the lakes.

Happy November, all

BWI: 18” DCA: 15” IAD: 21” RIC: 3” Tiebreaker SBY: 2”

That’s refreshing to hear.

US National Weather Service State College PA Favorites · · The dry stretch of sunny days will come to an end by the end of this week. Thursday will feature a fall frontal system that will bring widespread appreciable rain to the area for the first time since the beginning of October. Clouds and rain are expected to linger into the beginning of the weekend.

Yea im throwing in the towel before winter begins.

oday back in 1950 Phoenixville 1E hit 86 degrees and the county as a whole averaged 84.7 for a high...this followed the warmest Halloween ever recorded across the entire USA. That date here in Chester County was the warmest November 1st since records began in 1890. Today we should see highs from near 60 degrees in ridge locations to the low 60's in valley spots with lows tonight in the mid 30's to low 40's. Our warmest day this week will be Wednesday with highs not far from 70 degrees! We turn progressively chillier starting Thursday and by next Sunday morning we should see lows in the mid 30's to low 40's, not far from freezing in the colder valleys! It has been a while since our last rain but our next soaking rain looks to arrive Thursday into Friday with around 1.8" possible according to our ChescoWx model.

Busted forecast. Steady light rain all morning

Today back in 1950 Phoenixville 1E hit 86 degrees and the county as a whole averaged 84.7 for a high...this followed the warmest Halloween ever recorded across the entire USA. That date here in Chester County was the warmest November 1st since records began in 1890. Today we should see highs from near 60 degrees in ridge locations to the low 60's in valley spots with lows tonight in the mid 30's to low 40's. Our warmest day this week will be Wednesday with highs not far from 70 degrees! We turn progressively chillier starting Thursday and by next Sunday morning we should see lows in the mid 30's to low 40's, not far from freezing in the colder valleys! It has been a while since our last rain but our next soaking rain looks to arrive Thursday into Friday with around 1.8" possible according to our ChescoWx model.

BWI: 0.5” DCA: 0.2” IAD: 0.6” RIC: T Tiebreaker SBY: T

You can continue to bet against the RAGING El Nino....one that has already taken out the Atlantic hurricane season...

You got me. I’m making this all up and my Davis is broken . All the flowers and veggies are dead . It has all been a charade

They were mid 30s most of the night and then snuck a brief 29-32° in there when winds went calm. It looks like just a freak spike down that was localized to them.

My youngest son loves sloths so I carved him this for Halloween last night.

The CANSIPS was/is by far and away the worst. Just embarrassingly horrible with both the strength and orientation of this El Niño. It was the weakest of all the other models (dead wrong), it finally, at long last just woke up and is now showing a +4.1C peak in December and it kept insisting on a Modoki event (also dead wrong) and it still is. Just awful. It needs a complete overhaul

The ski resorts wont be able to open until Mid December, and on a base of artificial snow

ORH getting to 29F is interesting if he stayed 36F.

Another shot from Halloween in Raleigh and some of the colors are coming in real nice despite this horrible drought. There has not been much leaf drop either.

Well you’re surrounded by large oaks and near a deck. So there are some sources for IR to reradiate back. But yeah, you’re not a rad location regardless. Maybe instead of 36° you’d be 34° or something.

Yes

November will likely be warmest month on record for CONUS