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My choices were merely our averages: Watches, did not track Warnings, 5.6 (Median 6.0) Biggest event, 14.8" (Median 13.5") Checked all but CT/RI for pre-Dec 1.

What I said is that our new normals since 2018-2019 have been in that lower range around 15”. We are going to need a shift back to benchmark storm tracks at least occasionally for totals getting back above 20” some winters. If we don’t see significant shifts to this pattern over the next 5-10 years, then it will signal that the new average will settle under 20” instead of the mid 20s which has been the very long term average. I came out with 3 potential scenarios a while back. 1) Snowfall continues at these lower levels and only during an occasional season like we had back in 2021 does it get back above average. 2) Snowfall experiences a temporary bounce in the remainder off the 2020s with more benchmark storm tracks than we have had in the last 7 winters. But it could only be a temporary bounce as warming continues. Steeper declines resume during the 2030s. 3) Largest volcanic eruption in hundreds of years cools the planet for 3-7 years wit the potential for well above average snowfall. Very low skill forecast since volcanism on this scale is very challenging to forecast ahead of time.

Short pump pummeled

Not earth shattering. I don’t think anyone here expected a severely negative PDO going into winter. Everyone I’ve seen has been expecting a rise from the severely negative levels. The only unrealistic expectations I’ve seen have been on Twitter….we had some twitterologists back in the spring expecting that we would be in an El Niño/+PDO with a “grand solar minimum” right now….

No one can predict the winter right now in November. December looks good right now. We can easily get above normal snowfall with 1 big coastal or 2.

if it clears out, low/mid 60s w/downsloping winds Saturday afternoon?

Yup I really dont see how the math works out to getting even close to our normals (25-30" give or take from philly to nyc) unless we get several big coastal lows tracking along the benchmark. Seems really hard to pull off. Who knows maybe bluewave is right and our new normals are around 15" per season.

Below are the Top 50 greatest individual snowstorms by station across Chester and SE Berks Counties since 1893. How many of these have you lived through? https://chescowx.com/snow-seasons-storms/

Below are the Top 50 greatest individual snowstorms by station across Chester and SE Berks Counties since 1893. How many of these have you lived through? https://chescowx.com/snow-seasons-storms/

We used to get clippers once in a while but they have largely gone extinct, and 20-30 years ago we used to get hugger tracks that would at least produce on the front end, like the Feb 1995 and March 1993 storms. We really need the offshore benchmark tracks here to have good snow winters now unless these come back.

Take that back. Getting a good graupel shower at home now.

Pelted in Stow. Heavy pellets

If anything it's probably eern NY into VT.

"Controversial and unacceptable?" Bro...it's not about the validity of what you're saying. You seem to be arguing that this is some kind of arbitrary anti-truth rule like "You can't talk about this here because it's uncomfortable and we disagree with it and wanna squash the truth": but that is not at all what's going on here. It's all about keeping this forum in tact for it's intended purpose...that's literally all. Doesn't go any deeper than that. This space will fall apart and no longer be able to serve that purpose--and it's not even you...it's others here who will bring it down. You know how it is here and I know you've seen how toxic the off-topic thread gets (I mean they've had to shut down AGAIN because of that). The forum literally cannot sustain those discussions. And you can trust and believe the same will happen here (and the same toxic posters will come over here) and then we can't talk about weather anymore. Is that really what you want?

Canadian now with a casual 17" imby lol

Cooling around Japan continuing a slow and steady rising of the PDO too.

I remember some past reports with the elevation reported. It’s always interesting to see how much wind is at that level. It would be great if they put a Davis weather station on the top of 432 Park at 1397 feet which is having all the structural issues from excess swaying. This way they could really see how much more wind is verifying at that level than the surface reports.

Yep it would definitely be good to note.

Wasn’t home to see if frozen reached the ground. Felt some graupely type precip in Franklin.

Happy day of your birth JB I miss you a shit ton and I’m waiting on the special winter madness that you said you’d be sending. I raise my glass today to celebrate your awesomeness

The GFS is on its own little island. Shocker.

Pivotal, WxBell, and Weathermodels are probably the options for the nicer maps these days. WxBell is more expensive (like twice as much as Weathermodels at least) but since I’m a sucker for routine I’ll probably pay it ($30/mo) once we’ve got a real threat on the horizon. I’ve learned to navigate it well on my phone too which helps

12z GFS tried.....I feel like next week is good timing for the first 'flakes' of the season. No accumulations down here, but certainly some mangled flakes or even a few flurries with passing lake streamers. Even this morning had that vibe, couple dark clouds passing overhead, just a bit too warm, just a few sprinkles

WeatherBell is good for models (although their CFS maps have major issues).