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The AI models and the Euro AI ensemble look wintery over the next 15 days. Y'all need to start weaening yourselves off the buggy whip models.

We'd love a nino but not a super nino--that would be a kick in the stones...oof

One more thing, in Vermont, you can request the trail be curfewed and have it posted for speed.

The first thing is that we always defer to the landowner. You can definitely ask the club to move it to a different location on your land. The would much prefer that than having to completely re-route around your property. Re-routes can be expensive and difficult but it happens all the time. Talk to the club and see if you can find something that works better for you. In the end, you have every right to not have the trail on your property but that doesn’t always make you friends locally.

Here are the work ups I did a couple years ago comparing urban and suburb/rural updated to 2025. BTW, added extra years to CHI from wx data that is raw (1830-1872). It hasn't been through re-analysis like the early data for MSP (1820-1872). But thought it would be cool to see how it looks when graphed. IND & DET below as well.

Early data in for Dec. Little cooler this year akin to 2017. Annual is on the warmer side, but less so than the last 2 years. 5 & 10 yr tend charts shown respectively. BTW, have more data back to 1781. Just a reminder, pre-1850 is slim on data, so take it with a grain of salt. Trends are probably close (as you will see in the next post), but individual years may be changed a lot when more data becomes available in the coming years (hopefully).

Yeah, I want the light blue hues over MBY.

The 18z AIFS Euro barely lets the eastern ridge build after the first retrograding cycle. It almost immediately retrogrades again into the Eastern Pac. The cold TPV sitting in the middle of the continent really won't let the ridge build over the East, and it squashes the SER. I am not seeing a tendency to retrograde the TPV into the West, not on the deterministic and not on the ensemble. The SER is going to try to flex, but IF the setup for the TPV is correct, I bet that trough is underdone. I hate to use a 360 map, but this is where models were originally showing the trough dumping into the West. Do you see a trough in the West? This is a TPV dominant pattern if it verifies, and that vortex could possibly rule the roost if real. The other trend I am seeing is the tendency for HL blocking to lock it in place which would prevent a retreat across the pole once in place. Let's see if this verifies. I am making NO promises this is legit as modeling has been "you know what" most of the winter at this range. This look is very common on many models. When modeling starts to key on major patterns like this, it can score at range.

@mitchnick @Ji The ensembles are starting to beef up their snow amounts today for the last 10 days of their runs. 12z Canadian ensemble got it started. 18z GEFS & 18z AI EPS really ramped up. Hopefully this continues to build up as most of the potential is from day 9 onward.

P28 and satisfaction for the Winter.

8 years ago today in GC.

Tomorrow it’ll show something else…hang tight.

You better change that goal to 70F. Because 60F is easy anymore. Hell, we're gonna hit 70F by the end of the week.

Only a few short weeks away!

18z GEFS stuff...

Compared to the runs of the last 5 days+ of the Gefs, there's finally some life in the 18z snowfall total. I didn't go into how or when. I'm looking for totals >1"!

18z GEFS looks good! Fwiw

Normally on paper, it would look good, but it's kind of WNW flow in the mid levels and then you got the southeast Ridge That's trying to split the lower anomaies at 500 on either side of it. That just kind of look meh to me. Based on EPS I dunno, something seems off to me. I hope I’m wrong.

no watches/advisories for most areas

Don't forget the warm napes.

I love it!

We missed you.

Looks like nothing to look forward to for a long time. Soon it will be sun angle season.

So, Fenway Park weather

No high pressure to the north to impart better cold air advection. Heavier precip rates overcome a marginal profile and turn precip to frozen, elsewhere, it's rain. Very believable.