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From one of my favorite professionals Bobby Martrich at EPAWA on the upcoming milder but not torch pattern before cold returns. "A lot of talk recently about a Christmas week "torch" and yes, there have and will be changes to the late next week period to just past Christmas that will take us out of the tank where we've been for much of December, and moderate the pattern. The culprit is a nearly 5 sigma high pressure/ridge over the Bering Sea, which was poorly modeled last week, and responded to a combination of a Scandinavian blocking pattern and the EAMT that retracted the Pacific jet too far... allowing this ridge to pop over the Bering Sea. If you watched the WW video last Sunday when I had @ShaneMartrich on, he talked about his research and lack of data in the polar regions. This may be one of those cases why the models and ensembles had a knee-jerk reaction this week. Kind of their version of an "oh crap" moment. By doing so, it turns the EPO positive, so the cross-polar flow is temporarily shut off. But for transparency, this is far from a "torch" pattern for us. Milder than now, yes... but aside from a synoptically-driven spike ahead of a cutter near the 18th, temperatures return closer to average instead of 15-20° below like they have been. This will be temporary, and may last more than a week, then colder returns late month and January."

RGEM looking good. TPV better oriented

Problem is both AI models have been slowly trending to a non event.. After both showing a moderate hit yesterday.. Another few ticks and they will look like the 6z gfs .. Really would like to see GFS make a good move towards EURO multiple runs in a row

It's an ensemble member.

F that. And all the models show that to varying degrees

I dont get the whole ICON obsession lately? If it showed a blizzard, I’d still trash that thing.

Those have been steadily trending in the wrong direction for most of the last 24 hours

Just when I thought it couldn't get any worse for the Hagerstown area, the ICON says "hold my beer...", lol.

looks like noise IMO. Not nearly enough for much of anything interesting. Some very light snow SOp

When has ICON ever been a “help”? I’m putting 70% weight on the AI models for this.

Good ol Sunday Funday NAMing would suit us just fine.

Bumped north but its more like the 18z gfs from yesterday ..

Icon slightly more north

does anyone buy cryptocurrencies here? I recently stumbled at a cryptocurrency i bought in the $75 dollar range and it rallied to $700 i'd like to tell you about it if anyone is interested its not financial advice but i do think it'll replace bitcoin down the road

Only 0.4 here. 3.1 on the season. Day 10 of snow cover, although it's tenuous.

NAM and ECM both have rain for us south and east to start changing to snow. 2 inches is enough to cover the grass. All I need.

ICON is no help. Swing and a miss

it ended up being one warm day right before thanksgiving lol

Wilkommen to the SchneeFest, Icon

Actually, just hoping that N Maine stays cold, good chance we can take a Xmas break sledding trip if that happens this year.

Think i saw 3 flakes at work in Greenbelt. (Insert Obligatory Greenbelt joke)

At least for my area it was pretty spot on .

I hope you’re right.

Winds notable overnight and some flurries in Fallston this AM .

I’ve been feeling this one coming . Just an old school recognition of setup