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Icon isn't any better. It extends further west, but the energy stays strung out instead of forming a closed low.

The 13z NBM has a 12-18" mean contour for SE MA (looks similar to the map DIT posted). According to dat' link (https://vlab.noaa.gov/documents/6609493/32850490/CONUS_SNOICEACCUM.pdf), snowfall values at 84hr+ are calculated from 30 GEFS members, 50 ECMWF members, and the GFS. Needless to say, some individual members still support this event. 12z GEFS fcst hr 138: 12z EPS fcst hr 138 (last available hour at the moment):

NWS for Saturday night in Frederick area: Saturday Night A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

The ICON may be trying with the vort. It looks slightly better than 12z through 84.

Yea, that’s why all the cliff divers have me confused. Is it likely that we get 2 feet of snow, lol no it never is. But when a storm is projected on all the major models under 5 days in our general vicinity (say within a few hundred miles N, S, E or W we track), it’s what we do. And if it keeps trending out to sea over the next 24-36 hours then we move on.

Goodness, that's like a Who's Who of greatest hits. I like one of the mets comments in here from earlier this morning. It's a powerful and delicate setup. It'll be fun to see how this unfolds.

NS lobe is definitely further West than 12z through 72, but doesn't look like it's gonna get its act together.

It was. It's still too early to write anything off. People saying this is dead are crazy.

At h90, looks better than 12z. Also looks better than 12z euro and UK, but not as good as 12z GFS.

ICON a little stronger and more west with the northern stream energy at hr84-90 but doesn’t look like it closes off as early

Ha, snowing again. Some years it just wants to snow!

Glad to see Sterling and I are on the same wavelength: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

Statistically speaking, most Miller A storms are coastal scrapers or total misses. The only recent exception I can think of was 2/1/21.

Arctic front moving through kiss the warm air goodbye lol.

Looks like a Jan 2018 redux shifted 25 miles east. I would take it - probably best 7” I ever had with the extreme winds.

ICON looking better to anyone at 78?

Fisher lol

we need this storm to dig a little more to the sw to get in on a big snowstorm

All coated up here with trucks back out.

The orientation of the trough coming down from SE Canada continues to trend more and more NW to SE as opposed to E to W as it lowers in the Upper Midwest. I think this is being caused by a lobe in SE canada but cant confirm. Its on the EC and not GFS as shown below EC-AIFS Model – Z500, Vort, & Wind for Eastern U.S. | Tropical Tidbits AIGFS Model – Z500, Vort, & Wind for Eastern U.S. | Tropical Tidbits

we need this to dig a little further sw to become a bigger snow for everyone in NC

My “zone area forecast” for Orange County from NWS has potential snow chances starting at 1p Friday afternoon, then 50% chance Friday night. Seems they might be thinking an earlier start.

That was a massive blue ball. IIRC it was a sub 960mb behemoth east of benchmark, which got the outer cape/ACK into warning criteria

It needs to feel the fear. .

may be hopium, but I remember bluewave posting a year or so ago a 3-run animation of the Euro that had a 2021 (or 2022? can't remember) storm 1000 miles OTS in one run, and then a NYC bullseye hit 2 runs later.