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Higher ratio to the north too .

You're making a lot of assumptions about how I do things and those assumptions are wrong. I used SAI as an sample of a 'near term' trend with a strong statistical correlation that showed forecastable value off a short sample size and ultimately failed as your sample size got larger. My correlation work ignores what happens before 1991. The correlation still fails to reach statistical significant when testing between ENSO, the SOI and any number of corresponding variables when you benchmark them to regional snowfall observations. You're speaking to someone who has done this professionally in the commodities space for 15 years. My methodologies discount severely anything before 1991. I do detrended analysis to find statistical signals around warmer background noise, etc. You still need to find a robust statistical reason for 4" of snow meaning something for us to take any real stock in using it as a metric. I can test it, I can say 'hey, that's kinda interesting' but you're not giving me a real meteorological reason for why 4" is an actual threshold. We're talking about statistics, math and predictability

I truly don’t believe anyone here is fully able to shrug it off . Everyone is here because they love at least some facet of weather. Some it’s only snow.. others like me are extreme wx nuts that love every extreme there is . Whatever brings us here is weather related and folks are not being honest if they say they shrug it off and move on. I will never buy that

Until a week or so after new years if the sentiment is anything to go by. The cold air is on this side of the hemisphere this year.

Which Ens is that. Better look under the hood

I’m with you, having it balls cold and bare frozen ground F’s with me. Is what it is.

Seriously, this was a 70s thing. They're so collectable I just won't spend the $$$ for them. Should help though!

gfs selling mid upper 60s on xmas signal not going away

Someone may have already mentioned this, but it looks like we get a GFS suite of AI models starting Dec 17.

In fairness, I made the post a few hours ago when Euro weeklies have shown it for days and all 0z modeling, including ensembles, we're out. Lol

Yes suck it up buttercup

Lake enhancement should bump totals to 3-4” here for clipper #2.

I hope we Sey-Mour-Snow

See more snow…than anything I’ve seen observationally or guidance wise. Everything indicating negligible chance of a white christmas near you. Plan for brown, sey-mour. 1” snow chance on 12/14 followed by a week’s worth of cutter threats. As if that wasn’t enough, the 24th/25th continue to look the warmest on the ensemble guidance…

We had one in the morning some years ago and all the buses slid off the roads. Got like 4 inches in 2 hours lol

Extra long strings so eventually my cheeks cut them back down to normal.

If you can’t beat ‘em, torch ‘em.

I really am trying. Yeah as a Met and adult you’re supposed to just let the emotions bounce off you right? Just hoping things change.

Heisy is in the house...it's happening

Sounds like you need a counselor, although it seems even they get cranky. Maybe at least try a 2 cycle weed whacker... for the extra lube

Definitely a stretch. I think that’s more the top end potential, a will likely go to advisories most places. But should be a nice little shot of winter for < 2 weeks before Christmas.

Sometimes one at a time.. sometimes all three at once are jammed up in and in

It does take a toll. I envy those that can shrug it off, because I cannot.