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I don't disagree with where this is going. Everything has to go perfectly. I think up along the VA border may do okay with this event, especially if trends towards a more amped system continue

You’re thinking about it too binary though. It affects everywhere. But you keep saying “if location X gets a snowstorm, then it must not be happening there.” And if someone says it’s happening here, they mean zero snow. Maybe for one region it decreases the chances by 10%… for another area they have already low chances of snow so it decreases chances by a percentage point or two. But there’s always a percentage chance the storms happen. It’s like a sliding scale and changing the probabilities. It’s not a binary yes or no.

Hopefully we can get one without any screw zone ala President's Day 1 - 1979. Still one of my all time favorites with temps in the teens, howling wind, and 14" in the upstate IMBY. It did warm up rather quickly the following week but still took several days to melt.

Temp has sky rocketed to 26F here. I was mildly surprised this morning seeing the ground wasn't snow covered in Punxsutawney.

12z CMC really likes the mid week system

12z GFS headed in the right direction once again!

If it isn't 6+ I don't want it anyway but none the less too many boundary layer issues and cold chasing with this one. The GFS has been horrendous with every event.

7.3 - our cove has a sheet of ice on the water. Wild to see considering just how scorching the water was this summer.

I mean, is there any setup in todays climate that would even support getting those S tier record lows? PVD got to -13 in 1976 but even the 70s were significantly colder than todays climate. I remember the afternoon of January 21, 2019 only got up to 5F in PVD, but even that is super rare. I think what is more surprising to me though is the fact that even with a warming climate we havent had any heat waves that rival the all-timers like 1911 and 1975. It seems like the 70s had more extremes with both cold and heat for some reason. We just don't get that anymore.

Crazy how quick things change in weather. Went from looking like a great period to cold and dry, mild week with some rain chances mixed. Thankfully we still have half of the month even after the warmup

Great find.

Bone dry hope we can ger dustings Wed morning and sat morning

We have snow flurries as well.

Well technically it doesn't only affect the northeast coast of the U.S. it has an effect everywhere but the effects (or the results) or just the by product. For us a byproduct is just shitty luck, for areas to our west and south the byproduct is increased potential.

Yeah I'll check this out more, Phys.org is pretty great. And thanks for the last paragraph, that is precisely what I was trying to illustrate but could not put into coherent wording. I think having a sound fundamental background in this understanding can go along way in medium range forecasting. If there is one thing I would really love to study further and understand it's wave spacing and factors which influence wave spacing...and then how forecast models handle wave spacing.

IMO, the Wbell anomalies are too cold. If one moves up one category (e.g., -5 to -7 becomes -3 to -5), one will probably be closer to the final values. Having said that, the Northeast will very likely finish below normal. With the expected readings through February 14th, one would need a top 5-10 warm finish just to bring the anomalies to normal. So far, none of the guidance (even the CFSv2) is showing sustained warmth of that magnitude.

Although all of Wake was a screw zone this time for the most park lol.

After my 35th straight day of 45° and drizzle in May

Well whatever that all means…which is certainly above my pay grade. I guess it only affects the northeast coast of the U.S. then.

It’s the southern Wake screw zone to be specific. It’s been that way a long time. I literally made sure that I lived far enough north to keep my sanity! No regrets!!

The Alton Bay ice runway is open, per Facebook, with ice depths over a foot.

GFS has the Wake county screw zone so it must be correct

BOS did -10° 3 years ago this Wednesday. I think that was the first time they did double digits below 0F since 1957. But as for those yore top tier historical cold shots…those may be gone. The ones that bring sub zero temps to SNE in the afternoon or -10° up here…1855, 1857, 1917, 1933, 1934, 1943, etc. That next tier below like 2023 is still potent though.

Imagine ours would be available from Wakefield. Not an intentional slight, just based on weather office coverage.

Right now feels like all major ensembles are locked onto the idea 10-13is pretty mild...especially W of the NE/SNE, then 14-17 looks colder. Then it comes down to what happens with the indices. If the PNA/EPO/WPO go strong -/+/+ the month is probably cooked and it gets very mild just about everywhere in the CONUS 18-28, but does not mean March is done. If those indices can at least settle near neutral values we may be in business since I think the AO/NAO are favorable. Someone else too maybe in the SNE thread mentioned don't forget shortening wavelengths allow crappier 500 setups to produce storms. I always point out how 2/8/13 and 4/6/82 had very similar 500mb patterns nationwide. One event pretty much escaped east, the other almost cut over us and was rain. Its a bit easier to get snow here in lousy setups in March than January, but obviously that factor can be negated by temp issues.