All Activity

The historically quiet Atlantic may have one final gasp before closing the door on the season, and this one is in the southwestern Gulf. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Southwestern Gulf of America: A trough of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions appear to be marginally conducive, gradual development is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle or latter portion of the week. This system is expected to drift eastward over the next few days, before it turns northward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. Forecaster Kelly We've all been tracking this one for a few days, and while odds have significantly increased, there's still a fair amount of uncertainty on what this one could actually become.

October 15-20 has highs in the 50s and lows 30s and 40s according to 6z GFS.

Hopefully not a bunch of "almost no cigar" situations. Very frustrating

I believe @Weather Will and @CAPE would have monthly Euro seasonal maps. Hint, hint...!

Going to be hard to buy a cloud for most of this week.

That’s about what you’d expect. Can we time some cold with these storms or do we have benchmark rain events.

Whoops forgot...the DJF 2m Temp That is actually not terrible for a 3 mth Super El Nino winter.

Updated October Euro seasonal out. Temos around the same as September.'s. But a little wetter than September. These maps are for DJF combined fyi. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_2mtm?area=NAME&base_time=202610010000&stats=ensm&valid_time=202612020000 https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_rain?area=NAME&base_time=202610010000&stats=ensm&valid_time=202612020000

bullish on warmth until at least late month

51/51F, sun if peaking through as the morning fog finally lifts

TORCH!

EURO OCT UPDATE DEC JAN FEB

Yes, let’s hope the sunny forecasts are actually sunny for once.

Coastal again possibly

Must've beeen distracted ... because the speed in which I've just realized we're moving through the solar transition season is something else. It just occurred to me we are closer to the solar minimum now, than the max, along that timeline journey.

Loved that wet weekend. Looks like next weekend may be even wetter. Tropical development seems inevitable at this point, and there really isn't anywhere else for the system to go except north.

Good! I do not want to have to work this system lol.

Future Isaias could be a ‘cane in the Gulf of Idiotic Arrogance before giving us some remnant rain in about a week? @WxWatcher007

Blazing out in Southern California but i suspect they will soon be much wetter later this month SoCal records, Oct. 2–4 October 2 Downtown LA: 103°F — new record, old 101°F Long Beach: 103°F — new record, old 98°F Burbank: 102°F — tied record Santa Ana: 105°F — new record, old 101°F Anaheim: 103°F — new record, old 101°F San Diego: 95°F — new record, old 94°F Chula Vista: 99°F — new record Vista: 100°F — new record Escondido: 105°F — tied record Newport Beach: 85°F — tied record CBS News October 3 Downtown LA: 104°F — 4°F short of daily record 108°F (1987) San Diego: 105°F — new record, old 104°F (1987) Oceanside: 105°F — new record, old 94°F — smashed by 11°F Fullerton: 105°F — new record, old 103°F Escondido: 108°F — new record Ramona: 105°F — new record Riverside: 106°F — new record Santa Ana: 105°F — near-record territory Santee area: 112°F — one of the hottest readings anywhere in the U.S. that day; the national high reported by NOAA/WPC was 112°F near Santee. WPC NCEP October 4 San Diego: 100°F — new record, old 97°F Burbank: 101°F — new daily record Camarillo: 99°F — new daily record NWS Oxnard: 99°F — new daily record

nice to see a dry week on tap...we are still quite waterlogged here

There aren’t really any inverse temperature correlations between October and the winter. When relationships do exist, it’s more on a CONUS and North American level of similar October to winter temperatures. For instance very warm Octobers across the CONUS and North America sometimes continue into the winter. Same for very cold Octobers continuing into the winter. Our last much weaker super El Niño in 2023 -2024 had a very warm October in the Northeast and this continued for the winter. Other times the October pattern doesn’t continue into the winter. So it’s mostly magnitude dependent across a larger area.

Noreaster cooled the coastal water a bit but the lack of a tropical season has allowed the Atlantic to remain above normal Globally

Records: Highs: EWR: 93 (1941) NYC: 94 (1941) LGA: 93 (1941) JFK: 84 (1967) Lows: EWR: 34 (1965) NYC: 35 (1881) LGA: 38 (1965) JFK: 36 (1965) Historical: 1638 - The journal of John Winthrop recorded that a mighty tempest struck eastern New England. This second severe hurricane in three years blew down many trees in mile long tracks. (David Ludlum) 1786 - The famous "Pumpkin Flood" occurred on the Delaware and Susquehanna Rivers. Harrisburg PA reported a river stage of twenty-two feet. The heavy rains culminated a wet season. (David Ludlum) 1786: The famous “Pumpkin Flood” occurred on the Delaware and Susquehanna Rivers. Harrisburg, PA, reported a river stage of twenty-two feet. 1844: A hurricane swept along the path from Cuba to the Florida Straits to the Bahamas to Bermuda and finally to Newfoundland. Such destruction "is rarely known in the annals of commerce." (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1892: Washington, DC recorded a trace of snow, its earliest trace of snowfall on record. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1917 - The temperature at Sentinel, AZ, soared to 116 degrees to establish an October record for the nation. (The Weather Channel) 1941: Record maximum temperature for October 96° in Washington, DC. (The Washington Weather Records - KDCA) Bermuda high pressure pumped record heat across much of the east. Phoenixville, PA reached 100°, establishing an October state maximum temperature record. Locations recording their all-time October high temperature records included: Baltimore, MD: 97°, Washington, DC: 96°, and Philadelphia, PA: 96°. Other locations reporting daily record high included: Roanoke, VA: 98°, Harrisburg, PA: 97°, Richmond, VA: 97°, Lynchburg, VA: 96°, Raleigh, NC: 96°, Reading, PA: 94°, Trenton, NJ: 94°, Elizabeth City, NC: 94°, Wilmington, DE: 94°, Greensboro, NC: 94°, Newark, NJ: 93°, Norfolk, VA: 93°, Allentown, PA: 92°, Greenville-Spartanburg, SC: 92°, Chattanooga, TN: 92°, Williamsport, PA: 91°, Atlanta, GA: 91°, Huntington, WV: 90°, Asheville, NC: 90°, Avoca, PA: 89°, Scranton-Wilkes Barre, PA: 89°, Lexington, KY: 89°, Beckley, WV: 88° and Elkins, WV: 86°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1954: Infamous Hurricane Hazel, which caused tremendous destruction in the Carolinas, was born on this date. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1966: Inez formed unusually far east for late in the season, Inez is among the deadliest hurricanes on record, with an approximate death toll of over 1,000 people across several Caribbean countries. In addition to being exceptionally deadly and intense, Inez was the first solitary storm on record to affect the West Indies, Bahamas, Florida, and Mexico all on one track. 45 sailors died in shipwrecks in the Straits of Florida along with 3 on land. Intensification resumed after passing Guadeloupe, and Inez rapidly reached its peak of 150 mph while south of Puerto Rico on September 28. Inez crossed the Florida Keys on October 5 as a strengthening hurricane, delivering hurricane-force winds to all of the Keys. Inez then reaching its peak in the Gulf of Mexico with 140 mph winds and 948 mb on October 9. The threat to Texas increased, but Inez was forced southwest late on October 9 and the storm weakened before making landfall near Tampico, Mexico, on October 10. Total damage more than $150 million and on its very long track as a powerful major hurricane, passing through the Lesser Antilles, Haiti, Florida, and especially Mexico. Inez's Storm Track - Weather Underground 1970: An F4 tornado moved northeast from northern Pottawatomie County, into southeast Lincoln County in Oklahoma. A total of 564 homes, 157 businesses, 12 public buildings, 5 schools, and 10 churches were either damaged or destroyed. In Prague, there were 4 deaths and 80 injuries, as the tornado tracked through the middle of town. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1972 - Heavy rains, mostly the remnants of Tropical Storm Joanne, fell across much of Arizona. It was believed to be the first time in Arizona weather history that a tropical storm entered the state with its circulation still intact. The center was over Flagstaff early on the 7th. (3rd-7th) (The Weather Channel) 1987 - It was another day of scorching heat for the southwestern U.S. Afternoon highs of 102 degrees in Downtown San Francisco, and 104 degrees at Monterrey, established all-time records. The high of 101 degrees at San Jose was a record for October. Sacramento tied their record for October for the third time in the month, with a reading of 102 degrees. The high for the nation was 111 degrees at San Luis Obispo and Palm Springs. Twenty cities in the southeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Knoxville TN with a reading of 34 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thirteen cities in the central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Duluth MN with a reading of 21 degrees. Goodland KS reported an afternoon high of 39 degrees. Showers over Upper Michigan produced an inch of snow at Marquette. (The National Weather Summary) 1995: After accelerating northward out of the Gulf of Mexico, Opal moved quickly through the Eastern United States. Despite hundreds of miles of travel from the Gulf of Mexico, gale force winds blew through western Virginia. Winds sustained at 40 mph, with gusts past 60 mph, blew down trees mainly above 2000 feet elevation in the Shenandoah Valley and along the Allegheny Plateau. Dozens of trees were blown down along Skyline Drive in Page and Warren counties. In Waynesboro, a canopy over a service station was ripped off. South Winchester and Elkton saw 2600 homes and businesses without power as lines were downed by the winds. Two tornadoes struck the tidewater. One touched down at West Point airport in New Kent county. It tore the roof off a hangar, destroying a small airplane and damaging four others. (Ref. Hurricane Opal) 1998: A big three-day snowstorm came to an end over the Black Hills in South Dakota. Galena was buried under 48 inches of snow and Lead checked in with 42.1 inches. Rain and embedded thunderstorms dumped a large area of 4 to 10 inches of rain producing widespread flooding. Most of the flooding was confined to low areas along creeks and highways. The hardest hit areas were in southeast Kansas and west central and central Missouri. Numerous highways were closed due to high water. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2005: North Dakota: After sweating through 90 °F plus heat at month's onset, North Dakotans see heavy snow fall across much of the state. Observers report 12 inches of snow around Halliday and 10 inches at Fairfield, north of Belfield in Billings County. Minot measures 8-10 inches. (Ref. WxDoctor) 2010: Sviolent hail storm taken on Tuesday, Oct. 5th around 59th Ave. & Cactus in Phoenix Severe thunderstorms produced the largest hail ever measured in Phoenix, Arizona, and Maricopa County. Hailstones up to 3 inches in diameter caused extensive damage. The largest known hailstone to fall in in the state of Arizona (back to 1950) was 4.5 inches in diameter. This record hail fell in Mayer on September 20, 1995. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2012 Accord Pub. 2011, USA) 2010: Large hail pounded Phoenix, Arizona, causing nearly $3 billion in damage. Click HERE for more information from the NWS Office in Phoenix, Arizona.

We will need to keep an eye on the Gulf this week. An area of disturbed weather is festering in the Bay of Campeche and looks to meander generally N to NE during the week. Models are suggesting it could be absorbed by a strong cold front next weekend into a week from today.