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  2. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  3. weatherwiz
    Monday could be a decent severe setup too. Going to be an active several days in the convective department. Certainly going to start seeing some increased flood concerns too. Time to toss those drought maps
  4. FPizz
    Probably. They might hear it on the news or see a headline, but overall I think us here are the only ones that care. The other 99% want to know why their App says 50% chance of rain today and it is sunny, lol. If I had a dime for every time someone brings up their hour by hour weather app...:D
  5. WxUSAF
    If we are that wet and DJF is only +1C, I’d do cartwheels. Especially if it follows Nino climo and most of that positive anomaly is December.
  6. LakePaste25
    I wouldn’t dare predict a snowless winter. There’s no data to back that up. But I would place heavy bets on +3 or higher in terms of temp departures in the mean, locally.
  7. weatherwiz
    I am surprised we don't have at least a marginal risk for Friday
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it's much more for the east coast than your area, but def. get the point.
  9. TriPol
    I think some people know how hot its been and that there's an El Nino and correlate with global warming. That's about as far as it goes.
  10. LakePaste25
    I will place a heavy bet that Nino 1+2 will once again, not cool off as we head into next spring. This is why I don’t yet think we swing back to a major La Niña. Cold neutral is once again on the table next year.
  11. dendrite
    Beer?
  12. kgottwald
    Raining again at GMU, but the radar isn't even showing it!
  13. FPizz
    Yes, living humans haven't seen this (I'm sure dead ones have though at some point) and I'm sure 99.99% wouldn't even know it is happening since pretty much nothing in their life is going to change over the next 10 months because of it. Many alive today will have lived through the stongest La Nina and El Nino ever, and not even know. Pretty funny really when you think about it.
  14. Hurricane Agnes
    Have managed to get under a rain blob that moved up from the SW, briefly giving me >1"/hr rates. Currently 73 with dp 72 and moderate rain that dumped 0.44" in the bucket so far.
  15. LakePaste25
    I keep circling back to the PMM. 2023-24 was a rare -PMM El Niño. Right now it’s positive. In the summer, -PMM constructively interferes with El Nino, while it destructively interferes during the winter. +PMM is the opposite (Nina like summer, but Nino like winter). Unfortunately we don’t have current PMM values but eyeballing SSTAs show it in the positive state, which implies more Nino-friendly interference as we head towards winter.
  16. MN Transplant
    I’m at the meeting where this was presented There was another interesting discussion about whether the distinct severe and tornado warnings have outlived their usefulness. The majority opinion in the room was to keep it as, but keep hitting the probabilistic guidance.
  17. michsnowfreak
    I really dont think so. There hasnt been any debate for months. I think some confuse the weather with enso. Any discussion of the wintry potential this coming winter and the same few act like its disrespecting super nino as if its their child. Its bizarre really. I really dont care how historic an el nino (or any other enso is). Hell i dont care if el nino peaks at +7...I care about the weather imby/region. And at this point I see absolutely nothing that points to a historic warm, snowless winter here...and certainly nothing pointing to a harsh winter either. So in the end, no matter how historic the nino is, the sensible weather of winter will be what i will remember (or choose to forget lol).
  18. bluewave
    The global pattern since the spring 2023 hasn’t been following any of our past analogs that we look at. The record breaking east based nature of the WWB going into the spring of 2023 was a first. Then the rapid global temperature jump by September 2023 without the traditional lag was new. Nino 1+2 warming in November 2024 followed by the impressive December +PNA didn’t match past La Ninas following such strong El Niños. Plus Nino 1+2 not fully returning to La Niña like it had in the past.
  19. Weather Will
    EURO is cooler this run compared to July. WB maps below compare January temp forecast in July compared to latest August run...
  20. CoastalWx
    Oh momma, wtf are you singing?
  21. aldie 22
    0.84 pretty healthy surprise this morning.
  22. wx_observer
    Wow, what breathtaking view!
  23. GATECH
    .91 today, total for first 5 days of August 3.5” Yet somehow all my grass in the backyard has died. Weakened by the heat then some fungus probably killed it when too wet
  24. George001
    Yeah I was initially thinking “We just had a super Nino 3 years ago, it won’t happen again”…. But then I looked at the subsurface and saw it was near +2 in early spring. 2023-2024 was kind of a weird year, I initially thought warm and snowless because the Nino was too strong, but then looking back this year when I was digging though previous super ninos to prepare for this winter, I realized I was kind of right by luck, and missed the bigger picture. Bluewave had a really good handle on what was going on that year, he basically argued we would see both Nino and Nina like influences that would combine to produce an especially shitty winter in the east, and ended up nailing it.
  25. Malacka11
    Wanted to share this too, a severe warned storm from the top of some decent sized hill near Athens. Saw a power flash actually, but idk how strong of winds it takes to blow something around there compared to here. All I know is the winds hit absolutely crazy up there. Was terrified of lightning but that never became an issue, rolled through in <30 minutes
  26. weatherCCB
    0.43” here
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