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The CMC and GFS at 12z are a great example of the conundrum. The CMC has the December 20th cold front. The GFS does as well, but it is more seasonal. If that Canadian Yukon air can find a mechanism southward, those d10+ forecasts could change rapidly.

Yeah, a three legged turtle race.

ukmet is a strung out southern miss! never really gets going after digging

Was a good 2-3 degrees warmer than expected this morning. Wasn’t expecting a ton here, but was hoping for at least a little slushy accumulation which definitely did not occur.

I think its the only stretch of road on the East Coast with a chain up requirement for Big Rigs.

It's a race between when we get our next region wide crippling ice storm and a cat 3 hurricane

At 195 on the CMC, the air over the Canadian Yukon is -79F. The GFS isn't quite that cold, but it is impressive as well. With that type of cold air sitting upstream, that is why we have to keep our eyes open.

Pivotalweather.com has it every 6 hours btw... as in 96/102/108.

Yeah the UKMET did something much bigger just based off the 96 and 120 surface panels but I do not have access to anything else yet, it may have tracked the low too far east from the Delmarva but cannot tell with what I have so far.

Two camps right now, GFS and UK south and CMC and Euro north. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Big ice?

Fantasy range appears headed for the same CC apocalypse lol

Or when it's snowing despite the sharp shadows and hardwood trees fully green. Light snow here. We should be mostly snow, maybe a few pingers at worst. GYX says 3-5 plus a bit more after dark.

I’d sell out for 2” at this point. DC can get 5” just give me some dang snow.

Not if we post an image of Superman IV to scare the weather into bringing us some snow

This is the Chinook mentioned above...It will race eastward.

No thread for this until Saturday. If someone does then weather will punish us for our audacity

You could say that. Or a fun "oh a TT jackknifed now it's a fun sit for four hours while they reopen the road"

I can't, I only saw some very light rain/sprinkles as I mentioned earlier. Also - there is ZERO ice on the river from Columbia the entire way down to TH. Nothing. Not even on the banks. I was surprised given the reports up in the Harrisburg area.

clown map from the canadian for Sunday

Reminting pennies

Its actually a bit better than the 12z GFS to be fair... C and NE MD get decent hit (12z UKIE 10:1 snow map close up)

Also an extremely strong temp gradient from the 925-700mb levels which contributes to baroclinicity.

It’s like a mini version of Colorado’s two winters per season. Data nerd recommendation…a relative stacked bar (or line) chart based on the past 20 years with the separations based on the different deviations from average temps on that date.