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Another rainy New Years Eve!

Glad we were able to cash in before this upcoming boring stretch of weather

Ensembles are showing a negative NAO by Christmas . Have to watch that timeframe especially in the northeast .

4.5 here! Froze the water pipes. Makes the coldest we've been in a couple years. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

I think it’s kind of ridiculous that people can’t discuss what’s on the models to be honest. I don’t think I’m the problem. They show what they show. Somehow, if they showed a mega blizzard, I don’t think those same talking points would apply.

Personally for me…I’d be totally happy if NNE can grab a good snow event around Xmas. Still a ways out…so anything is still on the table.

Could be a brief burst of snow if this holds together.

I got the feeling we are going to have a early January thaw for the first two weeks of January then back to the colder pattern we had since late November into all of February.

God…you just never quit. WTF?

Ugly gfs OP run. It can change, it’s 10 days away, blah blah blah, we get it. However, those periods have been highlighted for potential cutters.

For Virginia?

4.1" for this event bringing my season total to 8.6"

I'll take my chances with stout HP at this range on that model in the upcoming pattern

Good on you for taking care of yourself. We all need to self reflect once in a while. Good for the soul. Yeah this place is full of "characters" with a myriad of backrounds, likes, beliefs, and we all have to parse through the weeds once in a while. It too is why I've gone in and out of the "cave" even during my time of winter. I no longer have the tollerance/energy to deal w/ too much shit...but can usually look the other way for the good of the board. I know, I've got my flaws, and have no prob being a dick....but usually when needed. But when I do, recipients know full well why they are getting reverse trolled, or hammered. If I'm ever deserving....have at it. I'm a big boy and can take criticism as needed. Even w/ the recent outbursts, Yard/Cand and the rest of us our pretty good peeps....at least in my mind. And to end on whats on my mind, I'm not convinced the see/saw will last for too long. AO/NAO headed notably neg aoa years end, so here's to hopin.

My fear is that it’s part of the base state. I think we revisit cold snaps many times this winter and it’s far from over in that front, but if we can’t start working it eastward like you said, it’s really going to be hard to move away from this clipper pattern in place over the eastern US. -NAO would be a huge step as @wncsnowpointed out. I’ll take my chances with a cad high but I’m struggling to see where the southern jet can get involved or we get enough digging out of the northern stream.

just know i lol'd hard at this. thanks Me either, Jesus

Cloudy, temps in the lower 20's, snowcover. What an impressive deep winter day for any time of the winter. I've seen a lot of winters where we never get a day like this even during peak climo. Getting my backpack packed for my afternoon hike. Shoot me a DM if you'd like to join me. I'll provide the cannabis lol

PF gets a good snowstorm on Boxing Day too!

Only a few flakes here - too far north. Grandkids in SNJ had 4" of clingy beauty, their first snow of the season other than a flurry or two.

Need it over Alaska and the GOA Low over the Aleutians.

That brought quite the visual to my mind, that I cant mentally "unsee". @sauss06Love ya Jon

We gotta get rid of that GOA Low and slow down the Pac Jet. The sooner the better . I think, providing the MJO is in cold Phases we'd be alright then. As is , strong Blocking may do the trick.

4.3” Williamsburg, Brooklyn storm and season total

If we can get the clouds out tonight, might be one of those situations where lows beat last night’s. I feel like the models always warm up too quick as a cold spell is departing.

That brings up a fascinating ask; what winter is the closest to having most of its cold/snow in Nov and the first 3 weeks of Dec? There would still be wintery wx after the solstice due to the small database of winters we have.