All Activity

Stalled fronts in the Gulf sometimes lead to sig HU development. One of most notable ones was Alicia in Aug 1983 that struck HOU as a Cat 3.

That’s not the northern eyeball. The eyewall is still well offshore.

Half canes are very common in these setups due to the downsloaping effect. Essentially the air is comparatively much drier over land and naturally gets wrapped around due to the counter clockwise flow. A very intense tight core sometimes can overcome this. That combined with the shear is why it’s weakening now or at the very least leveling off and that has been clearly in the tropical guidance for a few days now.

You can have major HUs in very strong El Nino years. Debby in the western Atlantic was Cat 4 in Sep 1982. Bob in Aug 1991 just off Hatteras was a Cat 3 that went on to hit New England. Erika in the western Atlantic in Sep 1997 was almost a Cat 4. Joaquin near the Bahamas in Oct 2015 was almost a Cat 5. So Isaias occurring here is not atypical overall given the strength of El Nino. The key is that frequency of major HUs in very strong El Nino years is down relative to avg and there is lack of long-tracked Cabo Verde classics.

https://x.com/commoditywx/status/2108603993190478158

So that is code for you predicting another 2013/14 winter? On an even less serious note, tons of acorns up here, the most in many, many years according to a neighbor who's a life-long Hanover resident in his 70's.

Northern eyewall is upon us! .

Plus, you won’t be heartbroken if the Ravens end up winning.

Love to see this in January as a Miller A bomb comes out of the Gulf. Y'all were thinkin' it. Somebody had to say it! Isaias is teasing my winter tingles.

I took Atlanta because now that they have a legit QB, plus the Robinsons, they are a dynamic offense. Raven's D has been very mediocre. No Lamar, O-line is makeshift for now. And I am going with the idea that picking your own team in a survivor pool is the kiss of death, so I picked against them. If they win I'll be thrilled. If they lose, I survive another week, so its a consolation prize, and I am already one of 10 left. Too many people keep picking the Chargers and Texans lol.

The thing is the models shows the thing getting ripped apart clearly, the primary HU models as well (HAFS) Why wouldn't you think that w/ the shear increasing to 40 kt and that much dry air present? There have been other cases like Isaias,, but also cases where unexpected rapid weakening occurs as well (Katrina and LIli are prime examples). So you can't fault ppl for driving the point home. We have a strong baroclinic situation here, so one wouldn't just ignore than. I would not say rapid intensification not long before landfall used to be definite rarity. That is recency bias largely. Since 1995, we have been in an active phase of the AMO for favorable Atlantic TC activity. Also, we are much better in determining absolute intensity now, esp. for the stronger HUs now b/c of things like the GPS dropsonde, which did not come into use until 1998, and the SFMR, which did not exist on recons until 2004. This advancement in tech has allowed us to diagnose *much* better extreme winds that we could not directly measure before. Prior, it was largely just FL winds at 700 mb, but that serves only as a proxy and does not work all the time. Sp in recent decades we are seeing things we never could detect before, but were always there. Also, and this is a biggie, through the 1960s, if a hurricane was thought be 100 kt or stronger, many recons wouyld not penetrate the eyewall and get into the eye for direct measurements. They would fly only as close enough to get a solid radar scan of the eye, and then turn away. So many HUs were underestimated by 1 or even 2 categories at times in the first decades of the recon era!

Looks like the more consistent and stronger winds will move into the coastal areas between Pensacola and Panama Beach in the next 30-60 minutes.

Not a bad look

Looks like the southern part of the storm is being ripped apart somewhat.

Heh...DT jumping on the "Second half Modoki" train....that is an exaggeration, but as I have ben saying, it will erode from the east, which will allow for more conducive mid seasonal flip.

Mild weather prevails. Tomorrow through Monday will see the mercury top out generally in the upper 60s and lower 70s across the region. Sunday will be a bit cooler with highs mainly in the middle 60s. The first half of next week will also feature highs in the lower and middle 60s. The weather will be mainly dry. The next chance for precipitation could be Sunday or Monday. The moisture could be enhanced by the remnants of Isaiah. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.2°C for the week centered around September 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.63°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.92°C. Both ENSO regions have set new all-time records. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -11.22 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.960 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5° (0.6° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Yep, I'm looking out my window at it 1000 miles away.

I'm mostly worried about flash flooding not main stem river flooding

Significant tornado threat looks to be pretty stunted for the next few hours. Nearly zero SBCAPE is making it inland, and storms are getting choked out before they can come ashore. Already happened to a few cells coming up Apalachee Bay.

Isaias outflow clouds

For a few hours now, the core has been "halved" on radar in terms of an eyewall. I realize there is some attenuation, but if the eyewall ring was complete and intense, we'd easily be seeing a closed ring starting a few hours ago. Ever seem intense TC at extreme range of radars? The eye and a solid eyewall show up very well even 200 nm away! So dry air and shear are have impacted the inner core, however, this has not impacted the central pressure or winds much at all! This shows that the relationship between sig shear and dry air and a HU is complex and it is definitely not one-size-fits-all! As discussed earlier, why did Lili, Opal, and Dennis weaken so much after a solid RI period in and environment not as strongly baroclinic overall than Isaias? Actually, think about Katrina! It went from 150 kt to 110 kt from peak onshore to landfall in ~24 hr with a ton of dry air ingested into the core and quite ragged convective structure compared to Isaias right now. And Katrina was way larger than Isaias, so you would think it could resist dry air intrusions better. Also, Katrina was in Aug. The mean atmosphere as to being conducive for a strong TC that time of year is significantly better than Oct! You don't have troughs of this magnitude cutting across the nrn Gulf in Aug! That being said, the upper level outflow plume for Isaias is outstanding. That unquestionably is a factor here as to keeping it from weakening.