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The one thing that annoys me about the HRRR is how the best forcing arrives with the precip (which makes sense I suppose). However, according to the soundings we have an entrenched layer of dry air (someone point this out earlier) which would sublimate before it could be saturated. HRRR shows this taking a couple hours which would be painful (though another actually smart met will need to chime in on how much that matters in relation to its molded snowfall output). The good news to my eyes is once the column does saturate its game on with a saturated DGZ and good lift aligned with it!

Just Keep a creeping northp plzzz.!

And the two weeks that followed.

Almost WSW criteria in S. central VA. You are reeling this one in for us. Hats off sir!

I would really hate to see this cold pattern pattern with mjo phase 7-8-1 without a nice snowstorm!! Seems like a waste

Let me know. You can meet me at my place and we can car pool

Hrrr support from the Srefs

There's no legit high to the NE. Its all progressive bullshit. This December pattern is not going to produce. I dont care what the MJO shows. We need another pattern reset.

Let’s pull off a 1/30/10

0z HRRR looking a little RAPish, about 40 SE with the snow wrt 18z: I'll wait until 12z tomorrow to get my hopes up for the inevitable flop though.

Is this the right map?

More north! Baby steps!!

We always get rug pull 50 mile shifts the last 24 hours so why not a reverse rug pull?

0z HRRR will make friends with lots of us. 2-3x as much snow DC and points north than 18z. And I'm 99% sure this is the right run lol

GFS Model – Total Snowfall (10:1 SLR) for Southeast U.S. | Tropical Tidbits

Yep. I have had enough 34° rain to last a lifetime

Soon to be- congrats DC

More of the same. Constant disappointment. I know it’s early in the season but man we need a win in the foothills at some point.

HRRR is about 25-50 miles more north with slightly heavier precip.

Im gonna say more than 5 inches.. We will see a nice size snowstorm in mid to late December once we get blocking going again once the MJO goes into 8.

Haha, no it's a very local trail. I don't have much time usually due to raising my daughter without her mom, but the days she has swimming and a friends parents car pool I jump at the chance to get out there. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

To illustrate the 0z run has the higher heights in front (notice how there is less confluence in Maine compared to 18z) which helps the storm amplify. Secondly, the shortwave itself is a bit stronger and less stretched out as the NS "kicker" is further south which almost seems to help spike development in our shortwave (while having the benefit of kicking it east slower) 0z 18z

It went from 34 and mixed precip to 38 and rain here

I can see sneaking over 3” for the month through minor clipper systems but I don’t see anything that would bring a significant (4”+) snow system anytime soon here. The flow is too zonal and fast to allow something to turn the corner that has more moisture into cold air, so we’ll be in a deep trough and cold/dry other than the minor lucky clipper system, or the SE ridge comes back and we get cutters/SWFE. There needs to be some mechanism to slow the pattern down-blocking preferably without -PNA which risks the SE ridge linking up with it.

H5 looks better too with a stronger shortwave out West and less confluence allowing that push northward with the precip. Don't know if it'll actually translate to a huge change but encouraging regardless