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@Stormchaserchuck1 one thing though, legit point of contention, isnt what the nao is a few days before the storm more important than the day of? By then the tracks are set. So many of our storms the nao was near neutral the day of but was set up by a -nao leading up to the storm.

Actually this is the area I'm in. I appreciated what you stated about ignoring them.

I can see how this season could end up an A or a C - draw your own conclusions why

Well honesty though.. does anyone really pay much attn to BOX maps? They are always too low . I mean we all look at them and they’re frequently posted on here, but most folks don’t think they’re going to verify . They struggle where to put warnings up these days where they should . And advisories

Willing to blissfully ignore the surface temps at this range a little bit - not it’s specialty. Still not what you’d like to hear Edit: I’ll trust PSU

This was a colder run and legit snow. Some past runs were showing snow on the clown maps but had questionable thermals

But for a fact 2.5 before the wind lol

I believe that someone either hacked the NWS Kernersville, NC forecast or their computer has had a major, major glitch. The official forecast is calling for 8"-12" both morning and evening for Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday of this week. Huh??? This clip is taken from my android NOAA Weather Pro app (can't be anything wrong with my app). WinstonSalemArlington, is that you???

5-7 inches atleast 100% guessing with this storm

Thank you, this helps and respectful. There are others on here that are not and rather attack a person.

I haven’t seen a PNS. The reports I saw this morning were .5-1.8” around here . @The 4 Seasons has the deets on how western CT did

This. This right here. All of it.

they hardly ever get it right

Bringing this over here. Better place!

Hi Chuck.

There wasn't even a single advisory up for CT let alone warnings. BOX map was like 1-3. Far E SE CT got 8-11 maybe 12 that's a massive bust. Most of CT west of the river did fine with 1-4 and even less near the NY boarder. I'm speaking for the general forecasts I saw out there and what the nws was going for CT, not you.

Well maybe post in the forum you’re supposed to post in? You can always do that and get away from the mean ol bullies?

WB only shows 850 and 700mb temps, and both of them our below freezing throughout the whole even for DC and NW (maybe it thinks they are all snow just based off those two temps??). SFC temps are pretty marginal (29-33) to start and become borderline unworkable towards the end (35-39). I'd bet a lot of that snowfall output is white rain or plain out rain.

But you’re missing Grayhats analysts over in the other thread

Have to dig into the thermals (hard) to see how much of that is sleet, but I’ve appreciated its general consistency for the period for sure. It’s the model I’d rather have on my side vs. anything else…

IMO you just got a bad first rep and that's the reason why a lot of us (I'll even admit me included) don't like you. It also feels like you tend to post stuff against snow and cold here in a forum full of snow weenies... but at least you're trying. The big thing is read more and post less. Hell I'm still trying to do that, and I suck at it still. I've only gotten slightly better over the last few weeks.

It’s so consistent. Last year when all models were trying to give us a hecs in feb it was the only model really not on board

There is a drama free thread where we discuss the nuts and bolts of the pattern and possible outcomes, with no judgment or emotional silliness.

I checked EPS and AI EPS to try to challenge you on that assertion, but came up inconclusive. We do start out with a strong -NAO block but then it decays and retrogrades SW into Quebec as the system approaches. That’s not the problem in my opinion. The real issue is that the “undercutting” wave energy has trended weaker/flatter. If it’s less dynamic, we could end up too warm for snow, which may not really matter if its dry or low qpf anyway. I would prefer to see a stronger wave that will help keep us cold, or perhaps having a lead wave reinforce cold air for the follow up. Lots of moving parts…

Another few beverages in a loin cloth finishing the driveway. Winter of yore . Massive pack . .