All Activity

Arkansas losts its 3” of ice. Disaster. All joking aside that run not as bad with SE ridge.

Hopefully , late January and February will mimic climo... The recent pause in the cause has caused some to become increasingly desperate.

His map

Please and thank you

first thing i thought of when i saw that. I guess its just like a rolling 10 year stat they grabbed. I dunno, seems kinda weird but i get it.

2009-2018 and 2016-2025 why? They overlap. Seems like cherry picking

The 18z GFS is tossed....massive feedback at 240 with a Baja solution that is improbably at best. I refuse to even comment further on a model that does that.

Need a panic thread. Not sure I can tale the toddler whining much longer.

HH has started (continuing) here. Currently making homemade ravioli — pasta dough is resting and making the filling now. Happy New Years Eve Eve!

Picked up 0.3" from a wave of light snow earlier. Up to 18.1" for the season now. Last year at this time we only had 1.9" lol.

Going snow tubing on New Year’s Day at 12:30 pm at Roundtop - if you all wanna swing some of those snow showers/squally things through there early afternoon I would be much obliged…

I still don't know which old poster he is. Seems like a troll who loves warmth.

It’s true that it will be cold here. Rest of country will return to warmth which decreases chance for snow across the US and decreases our snow chances as well. We’ll be the only part of the US until mid January with colder weather. Not ideal for the type of amplified bowling ball type systems we’ll need in order to get our snowfall up to average. January 2022 had a big chance across US after a warm December 2021 which provided ample chances for snow across US. Same with January 2024. Even January 2025 after a rather dry and mild December. But still no signs of a wholescale pattern change through mid January imo

Are you reading the map correctly Stevie?

colder than normal here, but December snow has been perfectly average. 16” avg Dec, 16.5” MTD. If not for that warm Rainer a week or so ago I would be perfectly content and able to ride the local trails.

Here's the 5 main events from December 2025 if anyone needs a memory refresh: https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/lower-northeast-25-26 December 2nd: Interior snow/ice/rain event December 10th: far NW interior rain and snow storm December 14th: coastal snowstorm and cape special (and NJ/NYC) December 23rd: LHV special and N/NE MA December 26-27th: Snowstorm W-E gradient.

The 18z GFSAI spikes a big poleward ridge out west and the cross polar flow blasts into our backyard. Temps around 12 to 15f below normal. My normal high in mid-Jan is 42, low 21. So that's a cold stretch for D-11 to D 16, with the cold building as we reach D16.

Shocking

There have been a few years in the past 25 or so where the models consistently called for a warmup or cool down two weeks out, just on the horizon, but it would not materialize, and in response the models would seemingly just keep pushing said warmup or cool down out yet another few weeks, perpetually out there on a two week horizon. Eventually folks on here would start to say "it just seems to want to be warm [or cold] this winter" The models would never quite catch on though, continually promising a change was just around the corner. I wonder if this is shaping up to be one of those years.

And yeah, pretty sure that this wind was supposed to subside early today.But it didn't

FYP

Pretty much everything in nature can be represented by a sine wave, including the mood of snow weenies.

Lol same story every winter

Seems to be a big question mark in the 8-10 day range in the EPS guidance today. Regarding the NAO block and what ultimately happens with that now. Not surprising, but it is important. Some guidance such as the 12z OP Euro from today. Want to send a rather inconspicuous little cannonball of energy from the ULL through that block which breaks it down. Sometime around day 6-7. Which would be probably the most unceremonious way possible to get it to end. We'd likely see the ridge roll into the east and then wait for the changes in the Pacific during a much milder period. But then you have the 12z EPS for the 8-10 day period. Which seems quite against that idea and apparently favors keeping the blocking instead. Which would keep the coastal track storm chances in play. As per the leading EPS cluster scenario. Or even the 2nd one. The OP Euro idea is included in the minority cluster number 3. The least favored outcome. Maybe tomorrow offers a clearer picture but it's interesting to see the OP run with a minority of support in the ensemble today though.