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BDCF / CAD wedges are one of the few areas in which I'd take the NAM over the Euro. Early March is peak BDCF Wedge season.

Working my way backward, finally finished this slop event. It's been hard to keep up with all these C-3 type events. Forecast for this was pretty much excellent for CT. A- Oh and the BOX PNS is pretty hilarious. TWO ORH reports included and both of them are wrong . The final for ORH was 2.4

well I’m doing my best not to bury my sled off-trail, so I’m not really sure but based on past experience, it’s deep, prob close to 3’. Saw a moose up that way up to its chest in the middle of a clearing.

0z GFS with a 80F sounding for DC March 11. NWS has it anyway Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 80. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. Wednesday Partly sunny, with a high near 79

Not really, recently all of our cold/snowy winters seem to be consecutive: 2002-03, 2003-04, 2004-05; 2008-09, 2009-10, 2010-11; and 2013-14, 2014-15.

Yeah, you need a lot of cold air in place. In the years when we had big snowstorms post-March 15 (1956, 1958, 2018, etc.) there were many days with below average temperatures (mostly in the 40s and even 30s, as well as at least one snow event) leading up to it: 1956-03-06 47 38 42.5 2.1 22 0 0.06 0.0 0 1956-03-07 51 38 44.5 3.8 20 0 0.13 0.0 0 1956-03-08 45 31 38.0 -3.0 27 0 0.50 T 0 1956-03-09 49 30 39.5 -1.8 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 1956-03-10 56 34 45.0 3.4 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 1956-03-11 59 40 49.5 7.6 15 0 0.06 0.0 0 1956-03-12 48 33 40.5 -1.7 24 0 0.09 T 0 1956-03-13 38 32 35.0 -7.5 30 0 0.09 0.7 T 1956-03-14 48 37 42.5 -0.3 22 0 1.56 0.0 0 1956-03-15 42 34 38.0 -5.1 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 1956-03-16 36 26 31.0 -12.4 34 0 0.73 1.3 T 1956-03-17 33 23 28.0 -15.7 37 0 T T 1 1956-03-18 30 25 27.5 -16.5 37 0 0.56 5.4 0 1956-03-19 30 23 26.5 -17.8 38 0 0.35 3.3 7 1958-03-01 46 39 42.5 3.4 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 1958-03-02 53 34 43.5 4.1 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 1958-03-03 49 38 43.5 3.9 21 0 0.17 0.0 0 1958-03-04 46 34 40.0 0.1 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 1958-03-05 47 34 40.5 0.3 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 1958-03-06 50 30 40.0 -0.4 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 1958-03-07 49 35 42.0 1.3 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 1958-03-08 46 31 38.5 -2.5 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 1958-03-09 40 28 34.0 -7.3 31 0 0.00 0.0 0 1958-03-10 53 34 43.5 1.9 21 0 T T 0 1958-03-11 54 31 42.5 0.6 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 1958-03-12 45 35 40.0 -2.2 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 1958-03-13 42 29 35.5 -7.0 29 0 0.39 1.4 1 1958-03-14 39 32 35.5 -7.3 29 0 0.66 0.6 2 1958-03-15 44 36 40.0 -3.1 25 0 0.00 0.0 T 1958-03-16 42 33 37.5 -5.9 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 1958-03-17 44 31 37.5 -6.2 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 1958-03-18 48 31 39.5 -4.5 25 0 T 0.0 0 1958-03-19 38 33 35.5 -8.8 29 0 0.81 1.4 0 1958-03-20 35 32 33.5 -11.2 31 0 1.76 9.6 4 2018-03-02 45 32 38.5 -0.9 26 0 0.86 1.5 0 2018-03-03 46 35 40.5 0.9 24 0 T T 1 2018-03-04 48 31 39.5 -0.4 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 2018-03-05 47 30 38.5 -1.7 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 2018-03-06 48 29 38.5 -1.9 26 0 0.23 0.1 0 2018-03-07 36 32 34.0 -6.7 31 0 1.28 6.0 T 2018-03-08 40 31 35.5 -5.5 29 0 0.00 0.0 4 2018-03-09 42 30 36.0 -5.3 29 0 0.00 0.0 3 2018-03-10 44 29 36.5 -5.1 28 0 0.00 0.0 2 2018-03-11 46 28 37.0 -4.9 28 0 0.00 0.0 1 2018-03-12 43 29 36.0 -6.2 29 0 0.06 T 0 2018-03-13 42 32 37.0 -5.5 28 0 0.03 T T 2018-03-14 41 29 35.0 -7.8 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 2018-03-15 46 32 39.0 -4.1 26 0 T 0.0 0 2018-03-16 42 31 36.5 -6.9 28 0 T T 0 2018-03-17 48 28 38.0 -5.7 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 2018-03-18 50 31 40.5 -3.5 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 2018-03-19 52 33 42.5 -1.8 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 2018-03-20 35 29 32.0 -12.7 33 0 0.40 0.9 0 2018-03-21 36 31 33.5 -11.5 31 0 1.06 6.7 1 We just don't have that coming up this year. We have temps forecasted in the 60s and 70s. I have a feeling anyone holding out hope for more snow is going to end up disappointed.

Magic ball ?

Last night’s system delivered 3-4” of new snow here in the valley, so I headed up to the mountain this morning to get in a tour and check out the conditions. There really wasn’t much difference in accumulations with respect to elevation – Bolton Valley was also reporting 3-4” new, and that’s what I measured throughout my tour in the 2,000’ to 2,700’ elevation range via the Wilderness Uphill Route. The 3-4” of snow contained about ¼” of liquid equivalent, so the snow was certainly powdery (~7% H2O), but not ultra-light, so it had enough substance to be supportive on low and moderate-angle terrain. Turns weren’t 100% bottomless on that amount of liquid equivalent, but many turns were off the bottom, and the subsurface was surprisingly soft as well, so the turns were excellent all around. While the new snow was great, the weather itself was also quite impressive – there was bright sunshine, no wind, and temperatures in the upper 20s F. That March sun warmed you instantly, and it was the type of weather you wish you could get on every outing, perhaps only falling short of those days with 1-2”/hr. snows that literally freshen your tracks every run.

Seems like the mild next week should cause some things to pop.

you want snow all of a sudden?

I haven't looked at this closely at all but from what ive seen it doesn't seem conservative at all to me, if anything its bullish on the snow. I dont see this producing any accumulating snow south of 90 Not saying this NWS map is right or what id go with, just compared to what little ive looked at this and whats out there its on the higher end snowfall wise.

all salemen/ladies asleep

8-10?

I could def. see 4-8"...agree my map is conservative, but I just don't trust the higher QPF output yet....maybe tomorrow night I patch 4-8" over the 3-6".

Euro still saying the opposite, let’s hope it’s right.

12"? No. Maybe like 4-8"....

It doesn't look that impressive on the H5. Ongoing +NAO looks just as impressive. +NAO/-WPO if we get a frozen storm, it's more likely to be ice than snow.

Rough Commute On Tap Friday AM Delays & Cancellations Likely What was expected to be an inch or so of snowfall on Tuesday afternoon ended up being several inches in some cases, which made for an absolutely dreadful afternoon commute. Hopefully better insight with respect to a potentially similar evolution overnight Thursday into Friday morning will afford commuters the luxury of planning ahead so that a similar fate will not be endured on Friday morning. Cancellations are advised, and at the very least delays on Friday AM for districts north and west of Boston. Synoptic Evolution The region enjoyed a pleasant day in the 50s today as a byproduct of the polar jet finally having retreated to the north. However, in its' wake is a fairy zonal flow from the west-southwest that is sending the next wave of low pressure rapidly careening across the country and towards the region. A most interesting trait of winter 2025-2026 has been for it to manufacture cold at least excuse imaginable, as if part of a concerted effort on the part of mother nature to atone for sins in the eyes of local winter enthusiasts over the past several years, when the opposite was the case. Early Friday is poised to be no different. While the general pattern is one of moderation given the aforementioned retreat of the polar jet, an appendage of polar high pressure if forecast to knife into the region at the most inopportune time late Thursday night and early Friday morning, as precipitation traverses the area during the build up to the Friday morning commute. The most laymen of weather followers can write the rest of the script at this point of the season. Expected Forecast Evolution Light rain is forecast to overspread the southwestern third of Connecticut on Thursday morning. The showers may begin to mix with sleet over the Berkshires and Worcester hills as they extend north of the Mass pike during Thursday afternoon. Thursday evening precipitation moving northeast begins to interact with the cold backing southwest from Maine in earnest, producing an area snowfall to the north of the Mass pike. Precipitation may briefly mix with, or even change to sleet and snow down to the I 84 corridor of Connecticut towards midnight late Thursday evening, but precipitation should remain primarily rain and freezing rain in these areas with some significant icing possible, especially across higher terrain. Snowfall will continue moderate to even briefly heavy at times points north and east. Precipitation will begin gradually tapering off to the east during the morning commute and end later in the morning, but not before significant delays and cancellations are necessitated on Friday morning, especially to the north of Boston. First & Final Call: Beyond the spring preview next week, the forecast split of the vortex is finally taking place and may have important ramifications for the second half of the month. Better late than never-

You don't think someone sees 6-12?

Kind of 12/23-24/2017 look.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/03/rough-commute-on-tap-friday-am.html First & Final Call:

Been in a bit of a lull up at WXW2. Looks like the pack has taken quite a hit since I was last up there.

Gotta replace my shovel dammit. Just hoping ice stays away or doesn’t otherwise impact life. NAM was a crazy run!

Yeah we're hoping for all ice with plenty of accretion

Rgem is still on the warmer side, but heck of juicy run