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It's going to feel like 53.

Don - you shared the table below of NBM snowfall inputs last week, but I simply can't imagine how the new NBM is more than the last run and how either of them could be right even with the wetter SREF inputs, as I think everything else should be near zero, except for low amounts from the EPS. And if it were just an academic question it might not be a big deal, but the NWS regularly refers to it in their AFDs, so clearly they use it, which I don't get. Any insight?

Ok. Rah just posted their slides and said no real change from AM thoughts. Sam graphics. Still going with the 2:49AM thoughts too. Only added some could see less. But broad brush is 8-10in.

That’s actually insane. So many will finish December and January below normal and we’re on our 3rd (some 4th) accumulating snow event with two or three flurries thrown in. I think the next 3 days will decide how this winter is remembered but dang, that’s not a bad stat line

Yep, good to see. They are one of the best offices out there

They actually raised our high end amounts to 12…. And they are forecasting 7. .

From SPC meso…. The snow burst in eastern NC and southeast VA depict 700-500mb lapse rates >6.5C/km Saturday afternoon and evening where 2”/hr rates with thundersnow is likely. .

I know I'm not the only one thinking this but even if this one does miss us, I really hope that we can at least score another moderate or major event before the winter ends. It would be nice. Why cant Feb 2015 be the climo norm every winter? lol

Gfs is changing in the NE every run. This run may cut off faster also.

Solid trends so far kicking off 18 Zed

Mine also

NWS still seems pretty bullish here .

118 members strong! Glad to see the site popping!

Imma read the rest when I have time, but this is the first thundersnow ive heard mentioned.

ready for spc outlooks to be the most confusing thing ever? https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/conditional-intensity-information/

even the ICON isn't budging from it's solution last night. very very consistent with a cape scraper enroute

Someone mentioned it a minute ago, but the OBX are about to get smoked. Not sure if thermals are good for snow (I haven't looked) but man gonna be a good storm down there.

Ended up falling to 21.2 this morning and topped out at 34.6 this afternoon

ENJOY! If I were single, I would be booking a rental in OBX and hang out at Lucky 12 or maybe Goombay's (more windows) until the kicked me out or lost power, whichever came first. Oh shoot, Black Pelican, wall of windows and a fireplace at the bar.

He is awful. Bring back the fish. They prefect their job is take model output and turn it into a forecast. Like you said he just reads the Euro output

WPC put out a great discussion. A little long to quote so here’s the link. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

They are rather bullish for SEVA

The crazy thing is this still isn't that far off yet seems so far given how steady the models have been.

I've never seen thundersnow. I would die if that were to happen with this storm!

Yup, same here which I'm looking for some higher amounts honestly. Saturday and Sunday the highs are going to be in the teens. Sunday mornings low looks to be negative 2 degrees and Monday morning looks to be about 3 degrees.