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I do not expect it be like 2023-2024.

In the eastern regions. Even so, our snowstorm composite in the Mid Atlantic is a GOA low which is the much favored El Nino pattern, even in Strong. That means we are a -NAO away from a great possibly historic Winter, with a super amped STJ. I don't agree with your logic about going with a higher number changes the players positionings.

I could see it perhaps hanging near neutral like 2004 or 2009....23-24 remained strongly negative.

It will absolutely be warmer than this past winter, regardless.

Let's see.. it will be interesting to see if it goes with El Nino and pulls a 2014-2016, or if it continues to meander near neutral despite strong ENSO forcing like 23-24.

Wow 80 inches is sick

If it's an uber-even over 2.0, yes...we're screwed.

I understand that....you have a preconceived notion of my expectation for the coming winter. All I'm saying is that if El Nino is robust, the PDO will flip. Agree it will be warm, but I doubt that it will be prohibitively so for the northeast.

Rumble here too. I’m staying safe

Well obviously Winters are better if the PDO is strong vs near neutral. You can still get a NE warm Winter in near neutral PDO in El Nino

Okay, you agree with me because I never stated the second half of that. Sounds like a delusion. jk

It probably will average positive.. but I think it could be in the ~+0.50 range vs the +1/1.5 that you might think goes with Stronger El Nino.

Okay.....I bet you $100 the PDO averages positive this winter if El Nino peaks at 1.5 or higher this coming fall.

12z NAM has achieved the absolute piece of shitness. A rare state of utterly 0 redeeming weather value from afternoon tomorrow until sometimes nearing dawn on Friday.

Feels like another superstition. If anything 2 consecutive -PDO El Nino events should favor another one vs something opposite. Weather can be cyclical. I do think the fundamentals of PDO state may have started to change with the Solar Max/aurora borealis the last 2 years, since May 2024.

Had two days here with .10" each and flakes in the air (T) on 4 additional days. Thankfully DJF delivered the goods. I was honestly ready to move on once March arrived so I'm not disappointed that the month greatly underperformed.

A few days ago, this coming Saturday looked like a damp, dreary day with highs potentially staying in the 40s. It now appears that we'll set a new record high with temps in the mid 80s. In fact, 3 of the next 5 days could feature 80+ readings in the LSV.

I called BS on that early on.

Well, they are correlated....and I feel it will flip with a strong El Nino on the heels of two consecutive -PDO El Nino events.

Probably goes in the april thread but man ... 12z NAM even colder... fronts slips SW of Logan at around 12z tomorrow morning, than it's 33F there by nighttime, per FOUS. Nice 20mph laminar NE soothing nape kissing wind too.

Nice day to take the laptop outside and do work there

Thunder in Uxbridge

63 at home. Was much warmer a few miles away in Huntington. Hit 65 earlier but breeze knocked us down

14-15. Models went strong or super to begin with. But that one hinged on strong WWBs in the summer and early autumn that never materialized. This one is building much earlier.