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I care about snow, not the date lol. The GFS keys on a different piece of energy every other run it seems. Lately its been 19th or 20th for our region or just north. 12 run-

I'm still watching....reason why I held off on a blog today.

It might have been me, lol. All kidding aside, I'd way rather be surrounded by a lot of snow in the long range than see no snow on the long range, as we all know ensemble means 10+ days out will change substantially.

I remember that. You did.

GFS OP has the storm just offshore for Sunday. It made the trough sharper so it’s closer

You care more about Tuesday then Sunday? I think I'd be more into trending this look into something more favorable than the scraps on the backside, but willing to be convinced.

The ens mean has been somewhat better, so lets see what it has. Still 6-7 days out

18z GFS definitely a step in the right direction. May the NW trend commence lol

Yeah nothing. GFS is so inconsistent and bad, and its the only model that offers any hope lol.

On the bright side, it’s Tuesday evening and we’re talking about Sunday, so still some time to go in the right direction.

What are we looking at this weekend for two locations? Blowing rock Beeche mountain? What is the best day for the two? Saturday and Sunday.

18z GFS trending to back the flow for Saturday night too:

Really like the trends on icon and gfs. Always felt the second storm had the better chance

I remember a similar map someone posted in Early December. December ended up just fine, through most of the forum.

Wilmington now on notice!

18z GFS was a step in the right direction, more digging and separation, looked really close to being a lot more for Sunday. Maybe ens will start to pick up.

Then you don’t like winter weather .Come back in May

I was about to contradict you, but nope, you're right. This is the stats for every January 13th in the last 30 years at DCA. 60% of all Jan 13th's (since 1996) have been at or above 50.

WB is behind. Its around 15z Tues that is of interest.

Seeing a trend in the last 3-4 gfs runs. Might steal a little something there?

18z GFS trying to make this interesting on 1/18-19....not gonna quite get there but that was a pretty good sharpening of the trough compared to previous runs.

I pulled some soundings off the HRRR for the Bays Mt band. I may pull some more if it keeps showing it. I'm not good at reading soundings other than the bare minimum of hodographs and thermal/ moisture profiles/ DGZ, so I was wondering if there is any other info in these soundings that might add something to how we understand the band. Just for comparison here is a sounding just SW in northern Greene county: I'll be heading up to Kingsport Thursday AM, so hopefully I can do some more investigating.

Although its the trailing energy the produces the lift and precip on previous runs, so maybe

Yeah, too far east. Just some interesting changes