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Seasons in seasons.

I would weight the GFS at 90% and give the the other two each 5%

Sun has started poppin' out here. I dig it.

We’re in an overall drought the past few years, warm or cold. .

No doubt.

I'm impressed that DCA made it to 20° with no snow cover before Christmas.

Snow town! Went for a walk in the woods this morning and everything looks super pretty with temps staying below 30 today

That sucks, I'm gonna really miss these frigid temps and occasional cartoppers. But actually I'll be out west during that time, so it probably will end up snowing here.

Flakes flying in the SW metro. Maybe we stay all snow, latest hi res guidance really upping the snow total for MSP.

There has been many cases in the last 2-3 winters where both the GEFS/EPS show a pattern at like D12-16 that seemingly not a single Op run over that few days ever shows, if anything its the reverse and then the Op idea verifies more 2 weeks later. Not sure why that would happen, it shouldn't but I have seen it more than you'd think is normal.

When you have summer heat ridge heights near the winter solstice, I'm guessing it's hard to wash that out even with other ensemble members.

Yea, I really just watch the tri-monthly value.

I trust the GFS 2 weeks out as much as I trust the ravens defense lol

My point exactly. 2 weeks out going to flip flop quite a bit. Saw that over the last 24 hours already wrt that time period

That would be God-awful to see in JULY (let alone December)!! We'd be talking triple digits if it were summer!

Severe weather outbreak?

the GEFS is so horribly underdispersive that the OP probably is influencing its ensemble 16 days later

One of them is going to be wrong. Maybe both are, but both definitely can't be correct.

Yeah, but now we’re within range, so let’s get ready for the torch. Boxing Day =

They'll be okay. They got the kids glove treatment by the Committee.

sure why not^

I wonder how much the op run is influencing this. The last 3 GEFS runs for Xmas eve.

I wouldn't completely rule it out at this point.

December is still below normal temps wise & looks to average close to normal for the rest of December. Much better than 70’s at Christmas.

Afternoon update from the NWS agrees. Tomorrow could be an interesting day if we manage to stay a few degrees cooler. Where the most tricky part of the forecast comes in is actually for the lower elevations of eastern OH and southwestern PA. 12z CAMs have taken on a slightly colder solution as the shield of precip arrives before sunrise and an enhanced push in the mid-morning hours. Forecast soundings show a very deep saturated layer well through and above the DGZ with strong synoptic forcing. Most of the entire profile is below freezing save the lowest few hundred feet where surface temperatures sit a degree or two above freezing. Should this be the case, a wet and cold rain will be the result. However, if surface temps are slightly overdone by the CAMs and/or dynamics cool the profile further than advertised, there is a conditional threat for a thump of heavy, wet snow to impact a good portion of southwest Pennsylvania, eastern Ohio, and the panhandle of West Virginia in the early morning to early afternoon hours. This may be a situation in which we have to see the whites of its eyes in the morning before knowing how it exactly will play out, but the worst case scenario could be a couple inches of accumulation with impacts to the morning commute. Finally, by the afternoon hours, a transition to convective snow showers with continued upslope in the ridges is likely as the stronger synoptic forcing moves east. Profiles suggest sufficient saturation through the DGZ remaining with steepening lapse rates in a low-level cold advection regime. Localized snow bands could produce another burst of accumulation and visibility reduction for the afternoon commute. Beyond the precipitation, tight surface gradients will foster gusty wind between 30-40 mph in the afternoon in the lower elevations, with 40-50 mph gusts possible in the ridges and peak gusts as high as 60 mph possible in the highest ridges of eastern Tucker County, WV.