All Activity

70 here on the edge of that cloud deck...trying to slowly clear

The 10 day/40 run CFSv2 mean for Feb has gone from this near coldest on record forecast from SE to C Plains and cold overall much of US (Aug 7-16 runs): To this just 4 days later (Aug 11-20 runs): still cold esp SE to S Plains but not nearly as cold there with 2-5F BN instead of 5-8F BN and also not as cold most other areas of the C to E US: I figured that because I posted the extremely cold maps that I need to post those not as cold in the spirit of objectivity as opposed to just posting the runs I like the most. I’ll continue to follow because it’s fun/interesting even though the CFSv2 forecast value is quite limited for 6 months out (more for entertainment):

If I can’t get rain I will at least rub this in

The 12z NAM run that I'm seeing on College of DuPage has almost no rain west of the bay and 5" near Salisbury?

The SE drought would be largely history should this realistic wetness (based on analogs) verify well.

Significantly warmer summer across the CONUS than 2023, 2015, and 1997.

Whatever they were smoking must’ve worn off. That rarely happens.

5-6”+ bullseye in DC

You're welcome! It is somewhat confusing, there is a district near Ephrata (Lancaster County) known as Eastern Lancaster. Eastern school district is in Wrightsville, York County, directly across the Susky from Columbia.

Gets to be a gamble this time of year especially the further north you go. Maine can be very hit or miss this time of year

Well 12z mesos have mostly switched back to pretty rainy. NAM nest is a deluge in the afternoon for the metros.

Yes that was impressive. Already setting up for our winter rug pulls.

I say it's a 99% chance it was a tornado. There was video taken from the intersection of Route 30 and Route 441 looking southwest at the storm at it came through Columbia. Obvious rotation.

Records: Highs: EWR: 97 (2005) NYC: 96 (1955) LGA: 97 (1955) JFK: 91 (2005) Lows: EWR: 53 (1949) NYC: 53 (1922) LGA: 57 (1957) JFK: 50 (1977) Historical: 1856 - The Charter Oak was an unusually large white oak tree growing from around the 12th or 13th century until it fell during a windstorm on this day in 1856. According to tradition, Connecticut's Royal Charter of 1662 was hidden within the hollow of the tree to thwart its confiscation by the English governor-general. The oak became a symbol of American independence and is commemorated on the Connecticut State Quarter. 1883 - An estimated F5 tornado caused extensive damage to Rochester Minnesota on this day. The enormous roar was said to have warned most Rochester residents, as the massive funnel cut through the north side of town. Over 135 homes were destroyed, and another 200 damaged. Many of the 200 plus injuries were severe, and other deaths probably occurred but not listed as part of the 37 total mentioned. This damaging tornado eventually led to the formation of the Mayo Clinic. 1888 - A tornado swarm occurred in Maryland and Delaware. Many waterspouts were seen over Chesapeake Bay. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1893 - Four hurricanes are observed in the Atlantic Ocean at the same time. Over a century would pass, 1998 before four hurricanes would again rage together in the Atlantic. 1918 - A tornado struck Tyler, MN, killing 36 persons and destroying most of the business section of the town resulting in a million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) 1974: Gulfport, Miss.--A woman was killed and her two nephews were injured by lightning while taking clothes off a clothesline during a thunderstorm. (Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf) 1977: Illinois experiences its first killer August tornado since at least 1880. The twister was mostly obscured by heavy rain as it killed 6 at the Lake Matoon resort area. Illinois' next August killer tornado, also obscured by heavy rain (and hail), killed 29 on 8/28/90 just southwest of Chicago. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1980: Third consecutive day of heavy rains and flooding in West Virginia. 8.5 inches of rain fell at Webster Springs in 3-day period. Many roads were closed by high water and mudslides. Evacuations were necessary. Near Ripley, WV numerous houses, trailers and a store were washed away. At Spencer, as much as 4 inches of rain fell and Charleston had 60-mph winds. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1983 - The temperature at Fayetteville, NC, soared to 110 degrees to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel) 1984: State fair in Pueblo, CO, had to be closed during vicious hailstorm. Nine people were hurt, one seriously. Damage totaled $40 million and 500 light bulbs were broken by the hail. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1987 - Early morning thunderstorms produced severe weather in eastern Iowa and west central Illinois. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 82 mph at Moline IL, and tennis ball size hail at Independence IA. Rock Island IL was drenched with 3.70 inches of rain. Total damage for the seven county area of west central Illinois was estimated at twelve million dollars. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thunderstorms spawned several tornadoes in Iowa, produced wind gusts to 63 mph in the Council Bluffs area, and drenched Sioux Center IA with up to 6.61 inches of rain. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather from Kansas to Minnesota and North Dakota. Thunderstorms in Minnesota produced baseball size hail from Correll to north of Appleton. Thunderstorms in north central Kansas produced wind gusts higher than 100 mph at Wilson Dam. Thunderstorms around Lincoln NE produced baseball size hail and up to five inches of rain, and Boone NE was deluged with five inches of rain in an hour and a half. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1992: Hurricane Andrew strengthens north of Puerto Rico and turns more west. Maximum sustained winds 60 mph.(Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1994 - Hurricane John, about 345 miles south of Hilo, Hawaii had winds of 175 mph and pressure at 920 millibars or 27.17 inches of mercury, making it one of the strongest hurricanes ever in the Central Pacific. The 31-day existence made John the longest-lasting tropical cyclone recorded in both the Pacific Ocean and worldwide, surpassing both Hurricane Tina's previous record in the Pacific of 24 days in the 1992 season and the 1899 San Ciriaco hurricane's previous world record of 28 days in the 1899 Atlantic season. John was also the farthest-traveling tropical cyclone in both Pacific Ocean and worldwide, with distance traveled of 7,165 miles, out-distancing previous record holders Hurricane Fico in the Pacific of 4,700 miles in the 1978 season and Hurricane Faith worldwide of 6,850 miles in the 1966 Atlantic season. 2005: Record highs throughout the NYC metropolitan and New Jersey area. 96 at New York City and 97 in Newark, NJ.

76 / 60 luckily here 1.4 inches of rain and not the heavier / flooding amounts. Gorgeous day low 80s. We'll see how much sun we get tomorrow / Sunday and likely some showers storms. Trough into the northeast 8/21 - 8/28 - near / below normal. Moderation back to normal / above overall 8/30 and beyond with ridge shifting east but appears to be easterly flow / onshore at least near the coats otherwise could see a warm period bedfore and near labor day.

0.08" at the co-op, and 0.12" at the Flood Bay cocorahs site. Meager rains yesterday with temps in the 60's for highs. It was a cool one yesterday.

Just about 2 inches here. Weekend is looking a lot drier so that's a plus.

Two rounds of rain and thunder this morning - .8 Real nice!

August 21 1918: Minnesota's third deadliest tornado strikes Tyler and destroys the downtown area, leaving 36 dead. 1886: High winds hit Northfield with winds blowing at 60 mph for 20 minutes. Peak gusts up to 75-80 mph are recorded. 1883: The 4th deadliest tornado in Minnesota history hits Rochester. The tornado kills 31 residents and injures 100 more. Appalled by the lack of medical care received by the tornado's victims, Mother Alfred Moes, founder of the Sisters of St. Francis, proposes to build and staff a hospital if Dr. W.W. Mayo will provide medical care. St. Marys Hospital opens in 1889 with 27 beds and eventually grows into the Mayo Clinic. For Friday, August 21, 2026 1856 - The Charter Oak was an unusually large white oak tree growing from around the 12th or 13th century until it fell during a windstorm on this day in 1856. According to tradition, Connecticut's Royal Charter of 1662 was hidden within the hollow of the tree to thwart its confiscation by the English governor-general. The oak became a symbol of American independence and is commemorated on the Connecticut State Quarter. 1883 - An estimated F5 tornado caused extensive damage to Rochester Minnesota on this day. The enormous roar was said to have warned most Rochester residents, as the massive funnel cut through the north side of town. Over 135 homes were destroyed, and another 200 damaged. Many of the 200 plus injuries were severe, and other deaths probably occurred but not listed as part of the 37 total mentioned. This damaging tornado eventually led to the formation of the Mayo Clinic. 1888 - A tornado swarm occurred in Maryland and Delaware. Many waterspouts were seen over Chesapeake Bay. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1893 - Four hurricanes are observed in the Atlantic Ocean at the same time. Over a century would pass, 1998 before four hurricanes would again rage together in the Atlantic. 1918 - A tornado struck Tyler, MN, killing 36 persons and destroying most of the business section of the town resulting in a million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) 1983 - The temperature at Fayetteville, NC, soared to 110 degrees to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Early morning thunderstorms produced severe weather in eastern Iowa and west central Illinois. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 82 mph at Moline IL, and tennis ball size hail at Independence IA. Rock Island IL was drenched with 3.70 inches of rain. Total damage for the seven county area of west central Illinois was estimated at twelve million dollars. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thunderstorms spawned several tornadoes in Iowa, produced wind gusts to 63 mph in the Council Bluffs area, and drenched Sioux Center IA with up to 6.61 inches of rain. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather from Kansas to Minnesota and North Dakota. Thunderstorms in Minnesota produced baseball size hail from Correll to north of Appleton. Thunderstorms in north central Kansas produced wind gusts higher than 100 mph at Wilson Dam. Thunderstorms around Lincoln NE produced baseball size hail and up to five inches of rain, and Boone NE was deluged with five inches of rain in an hour and a half. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1994 - Hurricane John, about 345 miles south of Hilo, Hawaii had winds of 175 mph and pressure at 920 millibars or 27.17 inches of mercury, making it one of the strongest hurricanes ever in the Central Pacific. The 31-day existence made John the longest-lasting tropical cyclone recorded in both the Pacific Ocean and worldwide, surpassing both Hurricane Tina's previous record in the Pacific of 24 days in the 1992 season and the 1899 San Ciriaco hurricane's previous world record of 28 days in the 1899 Atlantic season. John was also the farthest-traveling tropical cyclone in both Pacific Ocean and worldwide, with distance traveled of 7,165 miles, out-distancing previous record holders Hurricane Fico in the Pacific of 4,700 miles in the 1978 season and Hurricane Faith worldwide of 6,850 miles in the 1966 Atlantic season. Observances: 21 Fri Senior Citizens Day 21 Fri International Day of Remembrance and Tribute to the Victims of Terrorism 21 Fri National Spumoni Day 21 Fri Hawaii Statehood Day 21 Fri Internet Self-Care Day 21 Fri National Brazilian Blowout Day 21 Fri National Report Upcoding Fraud Day 21 Fri National Senior Citizens Day

Getting a few pretty intense showers here atm..nothing too heavy but it really has that mid April look outside with the sky and intermittent rains along the coast. Def gotta feel for those who’ve planned cape vacations this weekend too. Hopefully many sweatshirts and buckets of popcorn are on hand!

.75" for yesterday