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I am not throwing in the towel until tomorrow. One observation before tonight's runs.... Need a north trend = good shape Need a west trend = next This is because of typical model bias errors. Models very commonly are too far south in the medium range with northern stream mid and upper level features. That H5 low is likely to adjust north some in the final 48 hours. So if things start to trend towards a solution closer to the GFS, again not necessarily that extreme, but with a miss somewhat to our SOUTH not EAST... we are in the game going into the final 48 because I expect the same bleed north we see 75% of the time. Models do NOT, however, have a bias of usually amplifying too slowly in phase situations. If anything it's the opposite. Miller b storms trend east more often than west. So if the guidance converges on the more east idea with a more positively tilted upper low that doesn't close off until 6-12 hours later and we need a west trend... this is dead going into the final 48 hours. Again, I will reserve judgement until tomorrow

Champagne powder baby.

Umm... the wait is always the same between model release times. It's not longer simply because we have a storm on the horizon.

At my age, I cant remember what i had for dinner last night but i can tell you everything you want to know back in the 60's and 70's..............

I lost interest in those analog maps after finding they only use PNA

Oh come on, the both of you aren’t fooling anyone.

How do I get 4” of snow off of less than .04” of qpf here in Augusta County? 100:1 ratios? Lol

There is a shit ton of snow around downtown Dover right now.

Anyone needs a break in between the models these guys are pretty good.

Guess I didn't realize it was still that cold down that way. Not paying attention with other stuff I've been doing. Stay warm

Yes... remember that one vividly. They called for < 2 inches and we got a foot.

Is that burnt popcorn for Knoxville I smell? My warm nose can smell it in the air

@stormtracker can we switch pins for Jan to this and close the other?

This place is candyland compared to Eastern. Trust me when I say being a newbie and acting like a know it all was like shooting baskets on a hoop with a yellow jacket nest.

Gotta hope the NW tick keeps up!!! Lots of good trends and signs on the 18z suite!!

They have some special pull up there. Biggest vacuum on the planet.

it's not a storm, therefore Will would not be a go to, I'm terrible with names too but can remember obscure actors or things from decades ago, but when it comes to storms I've never seen anyone as good as Will being able to quickly pull an event I totally forgot about, out of the either with ease...wish I could do that!

So my wife and I had this conversation this weekend. From a Risk Management point of view, Mets, OEM, Risk Management, etc made the right call. Granted, there is a lesson to be learned regarding communicating potential pit falls. That withstanding, the right call was made from a professional point of view, even though we were wrong with regard to impacts. Yet, the public is very frustrated (which to an extent is understandable). I even had some texts from associates stating that this is why preperation and risk management is useless in this country: persons who are in this profession (OEM, Meteorologists, etc) tend to be alarmists and make other persons spend money they otherwise would not have to which if they simply never prepared, they would have the money to respond when a disaster finally does take place. Then there are the comments where persons state mets simply alarm persons for the money to be injected in the economy. Now what is likely to happen is that this storm will hit, meteorologists and others will be "gun shy" and then the public becomes even more frustrated. It's a viscious cycle, especially for broadcast mets and the NWS.

Awesome. So much for the Meh-teorologists

Yeah the drumbeat goes on. Frigid week ahead.

I grew up in Tampa and they’re hosting the Stadium Series game on Sunday. It may not get out of the mid 40’s. Then of course you see crazy stuff like this… https://x.com/flstormchasers_/status/2015854097153302774?s=46 .

I really don't mind where we're sitting right now. Trends are great and we still have time. I have a good feeling about this one for some reason. Tomorrow might be a really fun day of model watching! Here's to keeping the trend going for the 12z suite.

In my defense, my guess was correct. It was hidden down in the memory hole but not quite deep enough.

Right? It's actually a piece of energy leftover from last weekend's storm that swings around and becomes the northern stream energy

Needs to be pinned.