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Just a little off

It’s really all because of the GL energy. Without that or of course with a phase in, we’d be in biz.

The problem I have with this Saturday event is its only going to last a few hours earlier in the day so the daytime heating after that will probably melt what ever accumulates on the warmer ground caused by the recent mild spell

Yea, I don't doubt it hits 8 necessarily...but like we saw in December, guidance may, at least initially, be overzealous with residence and/or amplification.

NAM didn’t really jump east but it did come in flatter there. Hopefully thermals will work out here on that Friday night/Saturday morning activity because I think that may be my best shot. Unless Euro starts making big jumps soon, I expect to be dry for Sunday.

clearing working its way

Roads are trashed. Salt is useless

When's the next potential threat?... I'm toast for this weekend.

Perhaps he shouldn’t say warm up in the post either

That can stop now

If put in motion, it is clearly being escorted off the coast by another GL low.

Omg stop giving RR ammo yall

If we can get that MN kicker s/w to keep digging west, that is going to help. You want to do anything to help the southern vort gain latitude without sacrificing too much eastward longitude. NAM is digging it further west which was good…not that the NAM is good, but that’s what you’ll want to see on other model guidance.

It is always the Great Lakes Low that screws us.

At least Virginia gets snow. They need it.

12z NAM Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Actually the the convection is triggered the other way. The vmax has streamline and flow velocity -related difluence above an unstable environment, so the convection is triggering along that axis ahead of the vorticity ribbon you circled. Convective vorticity exposes in the speckling you see out ahead. Those are convective induced

A few very small flakes passing my Columbia window view. I will temper any excitement.

Prob a scraper for SE areas. Not relevant though at this time range.

In the final few frames everything moves NE, it seems like that lakes low acts as a kicker (as opposed some of the crazy GFS runs where it actually phased in and pumped heights out ahead).

NM lol. Looked to be setting up for glory but way too warm. Can’t even get NAM’d

Keep in mind, precip always arrives ahead of schedule. That’ll be important for yall down east dealing with temperature questions.

it's probably snowman19 with his 2nd account!