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The 18z GFS definitely trying to get in on the action. It has a storm which cuts into the forum area, but still manages to stay south. The good thing? It is the GFS at 10 days. The great thing? Good storm track.

Average Facebook weather post

Super excited for your “0z took 18” away from me” post in 5 hours

That is, indeed, why I posted it. Just furthering the conversation that you started as already mentioned.

Gives us 11” or so? I’d take that right now. Idc if south of us gets 20”. But also what’s the chances the storm actually happens? Guess we will find out.

Surprisingly resilient snowpack. Some of the very exposed areas are bare, but the overwhelming majority of streets still have full snowcover.

This is about as close to the snowfall forecasts before 2/6/10 as you'll ever see.

Transformers blowing - this is intense

The best part about that GFS run is that NYC gets fringed!

People often wonder if the means on ensemble runs are representative of what is actually happening within the individual members. Or just some blurred out average of a bunch of members. Which is where I think the EPS clusters are very useful. The EPS clusters from todays 12z EPS suggest that was a weenie run. True -NAO blocking full support now on the day 5-7 range. Leading cluster (containing the most members) in the day 8-10 range which also includes the OP 12z euro for further support. -NAO period, with a couple of chances at favorable coastal storm tracks in that one even. Day 10-15 leading candidate for direction of travel has the -NAO decay into a burgeoning +PNA which goes absolutely ape by day 15... I get a healthy imagination seeing a +PNA reaching for Siberia...

Scary winds. Lots of crashing sounds outside.

Spiking the ball at 240hrs, ehh? You'll never learn.

Was this an actual environmental sample from the 880s , or modeled, and what time?

Light snow fat wet flakes falling

The big ones get sniffed out 8-10 days ahead of time. I remember tracking 2016 for what seemed like ages. The emotional rollercoaster ride when everything shifted south, only for the NAM to score a coup on bringing it further north within the last 2-3 days. Obviously the pattern coming up Jan 6-10th or so looks unreal with the retrograding NAO block and split flow, but details are TBD if there's good timing with short waves in the flow. If we can get a solidly timed PNA spike WITHOUT a shortwave kicker screwing things up, I truly think the ceiling is some of the big uns in history. Just go back and look at the preloading patterns of the biggest storms for PHL, DCA, BWI, NYC, etc

He’ll stay up for 0z that’ll give us only 10” and call it a disaster

Front is wild as it comes through your about to get it

i should probably sleep at 11pm because im sure 00z will take 20 inches away

Ssssssnnnnnnnnooooooooorrrrrrrttttttt

I wish I could I d be in the bullseye at 240hrs.

poor PSU

That’s a folks worthy beat down!

Beautiful sunset, temps still holding steady at 44 but winds are really starting to howl at times.

Any of those radar returns reaching the ground?

There ya go Ji, you can sleep tonight .