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Based on population weighted heating degree days, a good measure of energy usage, the Conus won’t be warm at all! It is progged to come out to only ~1 F warmer than normal for the reason you stated. My estimate is for Chicago to end up Dec 3 BN, Cinci 2.5 BN, Balt. 4.5 BN, Philly 4 BN, NYC 5 BN, and Boston 4.5 BN. Even the upper SE (NC) should come in slightly BN and then ~+1.5 at ATL. SL should be right at normal. DFW should be ~5 AN, DEN ~11 AN, Phoenix 6.5 AN, LA 3 AN and Seattle 4.5 AN.

Main overrunning band reaches ELI through NW CT to ALB NY. That continues the multi-cycle trend of pushing this band further north and east into New England.

It’s a very large swath the Euro tries to cut, especially in that Binghamton to Albany corridor. I’m skeptical of that verbatim. Still a nice storm for SW CT and now much of SNE.

I'm going 6 - 10. Someone within 50 or 60 miles of here gets a foot. Same T/TD here.

We’re good for 5-7”. 24/11 now

Euro looks great. Game on

Yessir! Congrats up north! Hopefully an even better distribution for all.

Accu weather has my Brooklyn neighborhood down to 28 while Central Park is 29 at 23:51. A 20 degree drop in 9 hours from the 49 degree reading at 14:51.. as always ….

?... Still shifting north I take it.

Problem is...there aren't many Eric Horsts to be found. We were so fortunate to have him, and you can attest to that first hand.

I mean,Dec should even break Dec records for EQBO

yeah, would angle it more NW-SE than that map implies

Still lean 3-6 here given how quick this thing moves through but fingers crossed we get 6+. I heavily hinted to the wife that getting a new snow blower would be a great Christmas investment as our current one is having issues. That did not happen. At least this shouldn’t be a heavy wet snow to shovel lol

Someone gonna get buried. In 24 hours we'll know who. Best chance is OC north of 17/84, but not ruling out on LI.

I will boldly venture a "yes" response on that, if it looks like the potential for 6"+ was imminent...

Just walked the dog,,,,,23 degrees here in New City = that is all

I wonder... Would they actually upgrade the Winter weather advisory in Hartford to a winter storm warning?

This might be one of the most negative EQBO since we've seen into the early 40's into Jan,tho its still up in the air right now https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

I actually think BGM is more likely to mix with sleet than western LI as crazy as that sounds... because of the track of the 700mb low. Otherwise I agree, good map.

Lowest map i have seen so far.

You will do good so pics please

Good map

Some thunder possible tomorrow evening, not expected to be severe with MUCAPE below 500 J/kg. Although I do wonder if some small hail might be possible with any stronger cells, especially in the warm sector. ...Eastern Great Lakes to the Mid Atlantic... A secondary trough on the eastern periphery of the ridge will intensify as it moves out of the Great Lakes and into the Northeastern US late Friday into early Saturday. A modest surface low and low-level warm advection will allow for weak elevated destabilization and isolated storms over parts of eastern MI and OH, into the central Appalachians Friday evening. Buoyancy will become increasingly scant farther east into the Mid Atlantic. While a few storms remain possible into early Saturday, peak MUCAPE below 500 J/kg suggests severe potential is very low.

Ukie bumped north

Looks like you all do good with this so that’s great for Holiday time. My grand children are old enough to sled finally and Santa delivered, You all have fun with yours!