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I think the GFS is improving, they are now cancelling snowstorms shown on day 12 by day 10.

SREF

40F at DCA now, 37.6F here in NW DC.

The local mets are going to pull their hair out before this one is done.

It’s doing some weird troughy things wherever the incremental QPF maxes are.

everyones favorite the SREFS just took a massive jump west

19.6° -SN Maybe a couple tenths so far

Norlun? it doesn't look like its from that to me.. storm is just pretty far west on the RAP... anddddd yes please!

I absolutely love the change! You guys are geniuses.

Euro looks pretty meh through the 360hrs.

Do you think BAM will have more luck with the last week of Jan than they had with Dec 31-Jan 15? How did BAM do for 12/31-1/15? Here was their forecast map that was reposted in late Dec: So, they had most of the E US 1-4 BN. What verified? -The SE was 4-7 AN vs their forecast of 1-2 BN (~7 too cold). -DC-NYC was +3 vs their fcast of -2. So, 5 too cold. -Midwest was +5 to +8 vs their 0 to -4. So, 8 too cold. -DFW/Den was +10/+11 vs their +3. So, 7 too cold. -Even Great Falls, that they had +8, was actually +17. So, 9 too cold. -They had Phoenix 3 too cold -They were closest for SF/LV, which they had at +2. They actually were +2/+3.

Jimmy special

Ya 0”

Disagree. I couldn't care less if we're above normal when its 1" here and 1" there. That doesn't equate to a good winter. We have had 1 decent snowfall of 5" in November, aside that its been mostly garbage. Do you need further proof than the fact I was the first post here since December 3rd? Lol

The GFS has snow over the east half of the forum area mainly. From just East of Nashville and East with 4-6 inches, with a major shift into the deep south and eastern NC (not a surprise) for very heavy snow. 8 inches in Florida, 12 in southern Georgia, 16 inches in SC, 2 feet in NC. Now as the GFS has been pretty bad this year, I doubt that occurs. The ICON has an event with the mid-state being in the bullseye, and it's only 5 or so days away. The Canadian has a much lesser event in the same time frame. But it was actually an increase vs 12z. The second big hitter on the 12z Canadian ghosted us and became a strung out light rain event south of us. The EURO Ai is similar to the Canadian with event 1 with around an inch in spots, it's cold and brings a monster slider across around D10. The EURO Op is Dr No for both snow events basically. The nice event it showed at 12z is a strung out mess and a half here at 0z.

Snowshoe is getting demolished, yet again! https://www.snowshoemtn.com/media-room/skidder-slope-live-cam

0z GFS with a massive Carolina Crusher around the 29th

03z RAP gone wild with a norlun look and warning snows for much of the area.

It’s not over but if things play out like tonight’s guidance I think it’s a B to B+ for the AIs, C for the rest. But alas-verification has to await ground truth.

Man, this thread is so wonderful to read. I’m not around as much in this region as life has taken me further north, but this subforum will always be home to me.

30 at 8:05p. Now it's 38 in front of the precipitation at 1a. Don't think that's gonna get it done.

Has the models so far tonight changed to not showing any winter storms?

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