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Looks to be two zones on guidance.. rgem for example

I keep two humidifiers - one in each bedroom to maintain around 30% for sleeping and healthier sinuses. The rest of the house has been running 10-20% the past month and my one at work has shown single digits on a few days. Maybe deeper water?

Moderate snow here now. Will enjoy anything that we get.

Uncertainty about the February 15-28 period has increased. What is fairly certain are the following: 1) Substantial warmup in the Plains States 2) Brief cool shot to the Southwest and then a return of warmer conditions. The cool shot likely won't be sufficient to preclude Phoenix from experiencing its warmest winter on record. Moderation is likely to occur across the Great Lakes Region, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast during and after February 10th. What happens beyond 7-10 days is where things become increasingly uncertain. The CFSv2 favors a continuation of above normal temperatures through the end of February. The ECMWF weeklies bring colder conditions for the February 23-28 period. CFSv2: ECMWF Weeklies: Even as wave lengths are shortening, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) could hold the key. The EPS and GEFS agree on the development of a WPO-, EPO+, PNA- pattern. During such patterns, conditions in the East tend to be much colder when the AO is negative than when it is positive. New York City provides a good example. Since 1980, WPO-, EPO+, PNA-, AO- patterns have seen a mean February 15-28 temperature of 33.9°. In contrast, WPO-, EPO+, PNA-, AO+ patterns have seen a mean temperature of 44.5°. So, if the AO goes positive, the warmth from the Plains will likely come eastward. WPO-, EPO+, PNA-, AO- Patterns: WPO-, EPO+, PNA-, AO+ Patterns: The latest AO forecast is below. A near neutral AO would favor near seasonable to somewhat above seasonable temperatures in the East. As noted previously, due to shortening wave lengths, the consensus outcome of a resumption of above normal temperatures in the Southwest to close out February is the base case.

Cape Ann to Newburyport looks to be the zone. Let’s tickle that west.

The one thing that may spare us from more damaging amounts of power outages are that the trees are bare. Heck of a lot more damaging when they have all the leaves to act like a sail.

The Climate Changer gets his kicks going from forum to forum to spread his CC crap. Just ignore him. Other forums know him for what he is.

Reggie with 15+ for Cape Ann? I would hate to be a media forecaster in Boston. What do you say..."a couple of inches or a crippling blizzard here and there?" How in the hell do you explain this to the lay person?

Makes you wonder how he is able to snatch wives up like a latter-day saints preacher…

I've been having similar thoughts all week, that the timing and temps could make that half inch problematic this evening. I'm just not sure there's enough juice with this system, seems pretty dry. We'll have to get some semblance of rates at some point to make it happen but if we do, yeah, I think things could turn dicey quickly with no pre-treatment on the roads.

That map is exactly why predicting snow in a seasonal forecast is very difficult. Temps and precip patterns are generally easier. During La Nina, the west end of the state normally finds its way into snowfall. During weak La Nina's w/ a -QBO, the east end of the state often finds its way into normal snowfall(or above) with very cold temps. Ice hit the middle of the state. Whether we like the frozen precip types or not....the state has seen plenty of frozen precip. Many places are out of salt. Been a pretty brutal stretch of winter for most in the forum(not all). What has been interesting this winter is to see the MJO really not play a bigger role. HL blocking and the EPO have ruled the roost so far. The big losers in the snow sweepstakes(and this can flip on a dime) so far have been portions of the Sierra Nevada and a good portion of the Rockies. Canada actually has done well north of Seattle. I bet if one pulled out a drought map, that map above would likely match it. Drought begets drought. Middle TN had drought for a good part of summer and fall. NE TN finally found some snow after several winters of watching others get snow, and a lot of it. We didn't experience the long term drought which others have had. We had some rain this fall, and that is often a harbinger of where snow will fall during winter. I do think we are slowly going to climb out of this pattern(trough east...ridge west) as February progress. I think we see warm weather next week(though maybe less warm than originally modeled), and then maybe one last parting cold shot(and maybe very cold) at the end of February and into early March. Modeling has this to some degree, and LC has mentioned it as well (has the hot hand). The Euro Weeklies are not warm for March...and many of us will be ready for spring. LC says the pattern should flip pretty quickly during March to warm. The Weeklies aren't quite on board with that yet.

The blocking trended better but the wave leaves too much energy behind and the EPS washes it out on most members as the weaker wave that ejects gets shredded by the flow. We need a stronger wave with that look

What is the reason for much less ice on Lake Ontario?

The wind always seems to perform. Pretty concerned for my area as BGE has become so unreliable that the power goes out in anything faster than a light breeze. Hope to see measurable snow, won't be surprised if all we get is a few snow squalls.

one thing we seem to do extremely well around here is wind, and this may be a perception bias, but it feels like the wind events have become more frequent.

That is pretty insane to see. That would probably be a legit thunderstorm with 4" per hour rates lol. Maybe some waterspouts too

I had commented that my humidifier has been running non-stop most of this winter, just to keep the interior RH to 35%

NWS taking the wind threat seriously talking about widespread power outages. Widespread power outages at 10 degrees is no bueno. Do we really think that 60 mph gusts are gonna mix down tomorrow? I am hoping not.

Yea the burst on the front is what I was asking about. The evening snow today seems associated with a lead shortwave

It has been a little bit cold lately. Ice on Chesapeake Bay: https://x.com/i/status/2019537040808046913

Narragansett Bay snow hole accurately modeled... Lock it in.

I know. Thought we would keep the cloud cover from the morning. But of course the sun comes out. Sigh. Waiting for some snow TV.

Here on the north NJ coast, most winters, over the decades, do not have snowfall on snow events.

Not used to seeing this forum get heated! Yes there was a warm stretch for a few weeks around the holidays but it’s been cold and dry for the most part this winter. It would have been nice to have a little more moisture during this cold phase but there’s more chances coming.

It’ll be a nowcast situation I think, we’ll have to see how the moisture regenerates east of the mountains. Hopefully we get a couple inches to freshen up the snowpack.