All Activity

Forecast high for today is 82 and it's already 84 degrees at 2 PM. Genuinely what is going on. This has been multiple days in a row now the temp forecast has been off by multiple degrees. If it's 84 now it'll probably get to 85 or 86 by 5 PM.

I'm not talking about early on...forget that. December is going to be warm. Case closed. But some guidance like the JMA and EURO are trying to pull it back far enough west to salvage January....that is what I am skeptical of. I think that guidance is overdone.

I don't get the Freedom Models. Not sure they're included in the blend.

TKGW 49° in Durham in July is NBD.

If you’d look at them for once you’d see the trend

Which models are these?

Yeah they are a good sign

Exciting stuff....there is a unicorn scenario in there which it pulls everything just far enough to act like a Modoki, but I would only bet on that for small periods right now.

Most seemingly is by a MCS into the night and early morning,the low level shear and lapse rates get better leading into later today,as to where this MCS goes which seems to be middle TN or east TN is still the question,Plenty of instability.HRR shows the KI-index of 44,would be quite a light show around Nashville,probably will back down later runs on that

We aren’t going to know how the atmosphere is going to react (forcing) to having the 30C isotherm east of the dateline until this fall. Even 1997 never saw the 30C warm pool come this far east. The models continue to show it getting all the way to 140W, which is definitely believable now given all the record WWBs and there is also no precedent for it since that has never happened before

Halloween candy on sale at CVS

About as classic of a summer day as you'll get. Partly cloudy, warm (but not too hot) and humid with isolated, afternoon popup storms.

Low of 67 at 6:23am. At 8.44" for the month.

You know more than me of course, but I have to think we’re seeing the pattern shift happening. We’ve now had a string of strong lows move by to our north, which if it wasn’t mid summer and the thermal boundary wasn’t up in Canada they would be our synoptic rainfalls instead of convection along the cold front. Now this week looks to have a cutoff low over the northeast that dumps rain too. We still might have some dry periods but it seems, to me at least, the real drought period is over.

I can't stand that cop-out style....just make a forecast. Is there luck involved, sure....but there is luck in everything...it's called chaos. If the Super Bowl is close and it comes down to one play, do they stop the game and just hand out "equal chance" ribbons to very player?

I don't even do maps..I do a snowfall table and give ranges.

This threat seems like heaviest axis will be Upstste NY up into NNE. Everything slowly moving that direction

Historically, there are wet Nino summers and historically there are dry Nino summers. Strong Nino's (greater than =1.0) almost always create a cold season robust subtropical jet which usually favors a wet cold season (mid October through February.) Richmond has a higher probability of a wet winter than Staunton or Winchester, 80/60. D.C. comes in at about 70%.

Just came in from yard work. Hot in the sun with just a minimal breeze. Soils still wet here. Just pull back the mulch a little and ground is wet. Grass could probably use a drink but doesn’t need a deluge that’s for certain.

Euro kind of on an island with the heavy stuff for many deal. 12z gfs was pretty dry overall

I plan to do a whole series of posts in the next week but if anyone wants a little preview I did a big study of Schuylkill County climate and I plan to do the same one for each of the counties around here here is a link to the PDF. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1MHxIs3rJgobWYai4cVpQR4d_XyRf-hFQ/view?usp=drivesdk Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Six Windows, Four Products, One Rainfall Puzzle in the Lower Susquehanna The clearest finding is that the Lower Susquehanna’s apparent wetness depends heavily on the time window being examined. Lancaster and Cumberland looked dry during the most recent seven and fourteen days, but abruptly became wet when the period expanded to twenty-one days. That reversal occurred because the twenty-one-day window captured a substantial rainfall episode around July fourth through July tenth, while the shorter windows missed much of it. By thirty days, both areas were closer to normal, while the sixty- and ninety-day periods still reflected broader background dryness. Schuylkill experienced a weaker early-July wet surge and remained comparatively drier over the longer periods. There was therefore no single honest answer to whether the region was wet or dry without first stating the dates involved. MRMS, PRISM, Stage IV, and IEM Reanalysis generally agreed on the broad placement of wetter and drier areas, particularly over the seven-day period and again by ninety days. Their seven-day accumulation estimates were fairly close, and their ninety-day totals converged to roughly ten and a half to eleven inches across the three forecast-zone domains. The most conspicuous disagreement occurred in Cumberland during the fourteen-day period. MRMS estimated about zero point eight nine inches of precipitation, while IEM Reanalysis estimated about one point two six inches, PRISM about one point two eight inches, and Stage IV about one point three six inches. MRMS was therefore describing a materially drier two-week period, not merely displaying the same rainfall through a different map resolution. The products disagreed more strongly about percent of average than they did about actual rainfall accumulation. PRISM frequently appeared wetter relative to normal even when its estimated rainfall total was similar to the other products. Over seven days, for example, PRISM showed Lancaster near ninety-eight percent of average, Cumberland near one hundred one percent, and Schuylkill near one hundred thirteen percent. IEM Reanalysis showed those same areas near seventy-one, sixty-eight, and eighty-three percent. This demonstrates that some disagreement comes from the climatological normal used by each product rather than from the estimated rainfall itself. Accumulation describes how much precipitation a product believes fell, while percent of average combines that estimate with the product’s own definition of normal. Examining only the anomaly maps would therefore hide whether the argument concerns the rainfall numerator, the climatological denominator, or both. The PACLIMATE station archive provides the observational context needed to determine which product was most accurate, but the station records must also be treated carefully. Stations such as Middletown-Harrisburg, Reading, Harrisburg Airport, Reading Airport, Cashtown, Newport, Mahanoy City, Lebanon, and Harrisburg Eight South-Southwest had little or no estimated precipitation during the recent one-year period and are the strongest starting points for validation. Other series contained many estimated days, including Landisville and the Lower Susquehanna Climate Division, where all three hundred sixty-five recent days were estimated. Those records remain useful for understanding and reproducing PACLIMATE behavior, but they are not equally independent gauge truth. The next analytical step is to mask the grids to the exact forecast-zone boundaries, extract each product at the reliable station locations, and calculate bias, mean absolute error, and root-mean-square error for every time period. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Here either-were' at at foot of rain for July although the sun and low humidity really dried things out this week.

It’s just that it’s still convective season. I want to see some big synoptic rainers starting.