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For sure. I think lots of times we all can get hung up on this. As we all know, snowfall systems are so very nuanced, that sometimes an area(ours lately) can just get into a rut, and can continually get porked. While up steam or downstream gets slammed. It’s Just some bad dam ju ju. Eventually that will change, as it always does. And another region will spend some time in the shit barrel.

Frustratingly close but a laundry list of things needed to trend in the right direction for the 15th. Between the flow in the North Atlantic being too progressive and the trailing waves following too close to give the trough room to go negative earlier, feels like we’re fighting it from both sides to get a phase. Don’t know if there’s much of a middle ground solution here either, at least for those of us further west.

Nah, ground temps will be far too warm. We'll lose 9% to virga and 90% to 40° ground temps. Enjoy your 1% dusting.

80' would be a huge win.

i dunno...to me the further west it is..the more time it has to develop

That could be more of a timing difference. Hard to say.

12z on top, 18z below.

different better or worse or well never know?

It’s funny . The 7-10 day torch in New England turned into an ice event in SNE and snow NNE yesterday, freezing fog and icing tonight 2 days of 40’s and rain SNE today and tomorrow , a cold rain ending as snow SNE Sat into Sunday with ice and snow NNE to a day below freezing Monday before another day or two around 40. While the rest of the country furnaced. Our area of the country finds every way to fight off extended warmth in winter .

I hate to disagree. Too far west and rounder. I prefer 12z look. EDIT: Looks pretty different on the surface too.

Yup…textbook events are very hard to come by. Many weather events, including big events (whether severe or winter) generally aren’t textbook.

Great examples of far from perfect looks. Don’t always need text book looks to produce very good results.

Euro looks alot better---why 18z only goes out to 144 is a mystery

Definitely a west shift on GEFS vs 12z. More like 6z, but a sharper trough.

Kliff K to Baltimore?

WB 18Z EURO AI has a trough next weekend that is digging further south this run....

There was a story recently of the first confirmed bobcat in Harford county MD in like 100+ years. So they may be expanding their ranges.

Yup

18z GEFS a little better than 12z

Yes was going there next.

OR we could go the Feb 2013 route also with a ridge hundreds of miles offshore the PAC...lol. Granted, this was slower flow

Thanks @4Seasons

-0.2 below normal temps in other words near normal. Snowfall ? Anyones guess at this time.........would love to have a snowfall contest

shame there was never any updates to NARR after 2014