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Yea I remember that. I think October 2018 we got to like 98° the first week of October. It was terrible.

Another .31" this afternoon/evening. Up to .72" for the month.

Highs: New Brnswck: 85 PHL: 85 TTN: 84 TEB: 83 EWR: 82 LGA: 81 ISP: 81 ACY: 80. NYC: 80 JFK: 80 BLM: 79

If there was no water in the background I would have guessed that you were vacationing at @Lava Rock house

Usually we pay for a cool late August/ early September with a blowtorch October. It doesn't have any sway on the winter.

I am absolutely not disputing climo and most EC storms are in September, I am simply saying the current pattern is not conducive for EC landfalls unless something spins up from a stalled front. The trough is well entrenched and acts like a wall where it’s centered far enough east that anything coming from the MDR will be sent ots. Looking at the next two weeks this pattern largely remains intact. That brings us to the peak of the season and takes a good chunk of time out for something to hit. I’m not saying we won’t get a storm, but the current pattern strongly favors home brew and recurves. Given we’re in peak season, burning weeks here decreases the odds of a strikes by decreasing the amount of time available for one to happen, that is my only point. One would think the carribean and gulf would be in play especially with fronts rotting in the northern GOM but it’s been eerily quiet. We’ll see if our invest can change that. But for the next couple weeks I feel very confident the east coast will be safe from a MDR storm. I definitely would not rule out home brew too

That looks a lot like winter there…

There are currently some thunderstorms in western New York State and scattered thunderstorms across central Pennsylvania along an advancing front. Parts of the region could pick up a shower or thundershower overnight. Many parts of the region will remain dry. If New York City does not receive any rain, it will be on track to see no rainfall for the entire August 22-31 period. Only the following years have seen no rainfall during that time: 1876, 1881, 1894, 1902, 1909, 1921, 1925, 1953, and 2007. Two thirds of those years saw a dry September. The least rainfall was 0.97" in 1881. The most rainfall was 8.68" in 1894. Of those nine years, 66.7% had less than 3" of rain during September. That figure for all other years was 45.6%, meaning that the dry end to August suggested a nearly 50% increase in the likelihood of a dry September. Those findings are consistent with some of the long-range guidance. It should be noted that the CFSv2 shows wetter than normal conditions for the Northeast:

biting insects suck

It's going to be hilariously painful if we have some record cool August/September then just torch all winter.

Some would take one look at all those long pants and assume it was winter

Already down to 69 here at the house after a high of 73. Looking like an amazing couple of weeks ahead!

Beaches are boring. How long can you sit on your ass ? Different strokes for different folks I guess. A day or two a year in the spring at Clearwater otherwise yawn. Outer Banks are fun too but it takes forever to drive to any good bars.

BTV 29 ZR S Wey 45 R+ can't wait!

Crisp fall days are here. Dewpoint down to 41 at msp.

These 30s to 50s yr Olds could start their own Villages, golf carts with AC

Looking forward to more cool, crisp mornings this week.

Let’s go winter. Let watch lows to BGM and 10:1 maps show a foot at 34F vs this.

Not a flurry though.

Got a sprinkle

Fuck winter

it’s been mud and disappointment for three seasons at least.

Yes, that's a key point. Good communication is essential in a field like meteorology. Even if one might prefer to use a different term, one shouldn't portray one's preference as a requirement, especially when one's own profession recognizes the term one objects to.

ladies and gentlemen the moment youve been waiting for the case study for the may 31st 1985 tornado outbreak a meteorological breakdown

I know it isn’t the case, it can’t be, but I have this image from your posts that the only time your kids have any fun at all (throughout the entire year) is in hot, summer weather lol. And for the other 9 months of the year, they just look out the window longingly… as a single tear runs down the face.