All Activity

Models have really come around to a better looking Pacific..

Lock It Up...

Yeah, but this is the 500mb pattern, super unfavorable on large scale as a sustained thing, it's taking a few days to change the surface.

Thank you donsutherland for Phoenix, AZ statistics.. this was their warmest Winter on record by a lot. The difference between 1 and 2 is almost the same as 2 and 20. Climate analog point - the pattern that follows April-June of the analogs is below, notice the -H5 up north and -PNA in the Pacific. I've seen this when DC hits a record Winter high temperature or some other US city, the Polar area gets negative anomaly, and there is more ridging at the mid-latitudes +months forward: April US Temps (+2-4 months, some progression east)

WB 0Z EURO gives us two waves of digital snow to watch. Only 13 days of tracking to go.....

Too bad its weenie land

30 here

Down to 10

I remember March 2016 we hit 81 on Mar 9th and then got a 4-6" snowstorm on Mar 21st and 2 more snow/ice storms in early April. It's a wild month.

Seasonal snow to date: 14" 12/5: 1.75" 12/14: 1.0" 1/24-25: 8.5" 2/22-23: 2.0" 3/2: 0.75" I think I'm good for at least one more 0.5". Maybe a sloppy car topper on April 11th

each and all happy

70's-80F to snow - LFG

=)

I kind of feel it was way colder then this

Forecast calling for a high of 86 here next Tuesday 3/10. I don't know what the record for that day is in Atl. but I imagine 86 would destroy it if true.

Spoiler alert it’s freezing drizzle to my eyes

I recently looked at the SREF on the SPC web site, like last week or something. There is a big thing that said the SREF will be discontinued later in 2026. After posting this on a different weather discussion forum, I've been informed that the NAM is going to be discontinued at some time. Here is a statement released in 2025. https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/pns25-41_RRFS_legacy_model_cessation.pdf other information from 2025 https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/pns25-73_Proposed_Termination_NAM_MOS.pdf I thought the NAM would keep going forever, as it has been known as the premiere mesoscale model for the USA. I was thinking that it feeds the 3-km NAM with boundary data and/or some other important data. Apparently not. I'm a little confused as to what convection-allowing model(s), other than the NAM, might disappear and appear in the PivotalWeather and other web sites. A little piece of me says, yeah when the GFS says of 500 J/kg of CAPE at the location of the next big severe weather outbreak, then you turn to a model that will actually calculate the CAPE. (Am I crazy?)

Low of 45, high of 54 and remained cloudy all day.

Well now it is the GFS, ICON, UK, and Euro all have the CAD signature, at least for my neck of the woods up here in Northern MD.

It appears by the end of this year, Rio de Janeiro will be made a TCAC for the South Atlantic Basin. https://x.com/frontierfcst/status/2028252178335310228 Now only if we could get a TCAC for the Mediterranean Sea, which clearly has shown that it has bona fide TCs, along w/ many subtropical cyclones. Geopolitical borders/areas are a construct of human society. The atmosphere does not care one bit about that. It does what it does regardless. This system is I think the strongest Mediterranean Sea TC on record - Ianos Sep 2020. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Ianos tcac.pdf

So basically I don’t know what form of precip the next round will be lol.

80?