All Activity

Going to many sticky days in the woods...

As would I. Certainly not going to be freezing cold.

WPC once again ramping up rainfall totals.

Yeah I agree. A really amazing country with probably some of the happiest and most laid back people of any European Country. The flight attendant on my Air Swiss flight was fluent in like 6 languages.

Climate science predicted decades ago that the increase in precipitation due to climate change would be focused in the heaviest events and that is exactly what we are seeing. Extreme rain events are increasing much faster than precipitation as a whole. Climate change doesn't cause any one single event; but it makes individual cases worse and extreme events much more likely. https://iacweb.ethz.ch/staff/fischer/download/etc/fischer_knutti_16.pdf https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/update-on-texas-flooding

The big ridging is moving out west. So like I said, we’ll threaten some mild downs at the end of that period if things hold. But I’d still lean a bit AN.

JFK is much closer to the top of the list on 70° lows with the much higher dewpoints. 70° Low Data for January 1, 2025 through July 12, 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 21 New York-LGA Area ThreadEx 21 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 20 New York-Central Park Area ThreadEx 20 JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 17 New York-Kennedy Airport Area ThreadEx 17 FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 14 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 14 Islip Area ThreadEx 14 70° Low Data for January 1, 2025 through July 12, 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 19 Newark Area ThreadEx 19 ATLANTIC CITY MARINA WBAN 18 HARRISON COOP 18 Atlantic City Marina Area ThreadEx 18 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 17 MARGATE COOP 16 ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 15 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 15 Atlantic City Area ThreadEx 15 EB FORSYTHE NEW JERSEY RAWS 15 PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 15 TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 15 ESTELL MANOR COOP 14

From Google AI. In the U.S., heat-related deaths have significantly increased in recent decades, with the number of deaths more than doubling from 1999 to 2023. In 2023 alone, over 2,300 deaths were attributed to heat, marking it as the deadliest year for heat-related fatalities.

The day 1-7 qpf forecast looks almost exactly like it did for last week...... when I got a grand total of 0.20. Better luck this time!

What a summer.. With strong Bermuda high in place, a S/SW flow will allow plenty of moisture to be sent our way. This combined with above normal high temperatures brings some potential for a heat wave, with heat index of 95-100 currently expected Wednesday and Thursday, and 100 to 105 for many spots on Thursday. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... ***Key Points*** *While still some uncertainty, there is the potential for a heat wave to continue Wednesday through Friday for many areas with max heat index values between 95 and 100 (2-day Heat Advisory Criteria) for Wednesday and Friday and 100 to 105 possible for Thursday (1-day Heat Advisory criteria). *Relatively active pattern with chances for several days of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

All AN

Apparently the CPC doesn't see the torch.

That was too before Walmart and telephone poles

Probably a lot more that don't immediately come to mind too. Increased humidity likely leads to more mold, rotting of building materials and so on.

66° with a little misery mist. Yuck

Central Texas is done for. Some places will get 12 inches of rain by 7pm tonight. It has been good knowin' y'all. Ground is saturated. That much rain is apocalyptic. If you can, get out of central Texas while you still can. Fly far away from the absolute devastation to come. Our time has run out. I am poor. I will perish here. No way out. None at all.

64.9° I had to laugh at Watertown being almost 80° all night. West of the CRV is on fire.

Mental run mate

Low of 70F… +15. BTV hasn’t been below 77F tonight. That’s a tough night if you don’t have A/C. Nocturnal storms and clouds, and away from the cooler maritime air mass up this way.

I’m expecting the models to back on and off of development of this feature, especially given the background state, but this ICON run is an eye opener

Our summers have always been hazy, hot and humid. That's just typical Jersey and New York climate. Yes I know that it has gotten worse, with dewpoints averaging higher than they used to, but it's not like we were ever arid like the high desert out west.

another day of dews 75-80F. Just unreal.

You can toss overnight lows all you want, but it’s why everyone in the SNE hills, NNE, mtns, ME coast is installing A/C these days compared to 10-15 years ago. I get why folks often want to toss those temps once you’ve given into artificial cooling and are tucked soundly in bed next to the hum of a cooling source… but there’s been a “real feel” effect and you see it with every mini split or AC install that wasn’t there a decade ago. People used to get through summer with windows open at night. The warm mins have had a real societal impact.

Hey Chesco, Maybe so. That was a disaster waiting to happen even without CC. We’ll never know for sure about the possible influence of CC on this terrible incident as well as on many other specific incidents. But CC/GW has meant ~ a 7% increase in moisture held in the air per degree C increase. So, CC does make these incidents of very heavy rains within a fairly short period more frequent overall worldwide than before. Tropical systems, themselves, have on average gotten slightly wetter. Another thing CC has apparently caused is a slight slowdown of average steering winds due to a lowered contrast of the temperature gradient between the tropics and Arctic. Thus, the slightly slower avg movement of slightly wetter tropical systems means more frequent extreme rainfall events from tropical systems.