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It’ll be crazy to see the transformation in 72 hours. Not as dramatic as Gabrielle, but dramatic nonetheless.

Thanks for the info…hadn’t heard.

Actually thinking of getting a snowmobile. Not sure where to start.

you're playing with him

Looping back to the discussion a few posts back, as we head into November we do want a colder pattern. We’ve had 11 seasons since 2000 when we went into fall with a somewhat similar enso to now and the winter ended up cold neutral or weak Nina. So somewhere within that group is our best enso analogs. Only one of the 11 was a truly great snowfall winter, 2013-14 but it was the coldest November of the 11! 2 others were decent snow seasons, above median at least across the area, and they were the 2’nd and 4th coldest! 3 of the 4 warmest November’s were total dreg dud almost no snow at all seasons and the 4th was pretty bad also. so if we get a torch November our sensible analogs become torch snowless winters! If we get a colder November the analogs become a near average to maybe even a show at a snowy winter. Something in between produces a mean of about 11” at BWI so bad but not god awful. All that to say if that pattern were to be the predominant one for November it projects well for the season. Im trying to provide some hope, there is plenty of doom and gloom to grab onto if that’s your thing.

You should get fuel injection for your sleds. Carburetors are no longer needed!

@RUNNAWAYICEBERGhas been MIA since the presidential election. His friends are concerned.

That either needs to phase like the Canadian yesterday or move west of you because being stuck west of Mellisa will give you light rain and 10mph winds.

hopefully not .. it would be nice to see Melissa get captured.. we need this!

Lol…you’re right Ken, been gone for 7-8 months. Gotta get caught up on this AI Crap.

Some of the models are pushing out a ridiculously strong northeaster for next weekend. Like record setting strong Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Here are a couple of blog articles with links to scientific assessments on the volcano and an explanation for why the impact is small. https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/the-climate-impact-of-the-hunga-tonga https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/the-real-lesson-of-the-hunga-tonga

I don’t think the reduction of sulfites factored. The restriction set in after that happened

Below are monthly NINO3.4 and GISS stating in October 2022 and running through 2023. I don't see anything here to indicate that el nino wasn't the trigger. NINO3.4 started rising rapidly early in 2023 and GISS followed with a slight lag. The nino doesn't explain monthly spikes in March and September; but, Hungo Tonga doesn't explain the monthly spikes either as the eruption occurred in 2022.

18z Euro AI is not

I wonder how much of that N.H. anomaly is originating north of the Arctic Circle. Any way to calculate it?

It’s what Lorena Bobbitt used.

I went back and edited to give the IOD and AAM a shoutout just for snowman.

This is a weak and messy circulation.

After the decade that’s been we should be used to that by now. Yeah, but let’s see if that disappears at 00z.

Mr Warmth speaks…:)