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Wasn't there a really wonky model run earlier that showed this i forget what it name was.

I’ll be up all night monitoring the sleet line near Philly

Tons of sleet and a narrow area kf snow perhaps.

Nope, all around me, not here

Phily could actually get porked with sleet lol. that mlvl dry push may seriously screw with things. I have no clue what to take on it. I feel like it won't be an issue because it will be trailing the precip shield but I suppose some of that drier air could get entrained and it screws the whole process up. Maybe that's what the 3km is doing? Kind of hard to tell...not much for products available on the 3km

Significant ZR is confined to mostly western PA per the latest NAM .

We really need to see the RRFSOPQXYZ ensembles. I hear there are 26 members!!

Probably the most accurate looking map I’ve seen

2017?

Ya def comes in and is heavy within an hour then pukes massive dendrites for 1-3 hours, then periods of light to moderate snow with not great growth for a while

My guess is precip rates will be too heavy for heavy much zr accretion.

I never looked yesterday .. RRFS / 3KM NAM , congrats philly.. otherwise very good consensus on a 4-8"+ snowfall around nyc metro and 75 miles radius

What's freezing rain graphics look like? I hope we have a balloon launch close to kmdt Friday at 12z to get a good hold on the layers Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

This might be a case where the snow comes in like a wall, falls 2"+ per hour for 2-2.5 hours then quickly starts to shut off.

I wish it was that simple...

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If I recall, it looked similar for yesterday's event, literally showed snow showers, with literally little to no accumulation everywhere

18z 12km NAM really limits snowfall in all of PA but keeps it a sleet-fest .

I think what will be interesting to watch with this storm is if it really does over perform. It’ll show what we can expect from storms for the rest of the winter year.

We’re cooked here. I’d rather not flurries so they don’t dump 40 tons of salt on my road again

I'm sticking with the RRFSOPQXYZ

Also very rarely will a storm flip back to snow from ZR or sleet. Unless it’s an intense storm, the warm nose will take over and not budge

3km is funny, congrats small stripe around philly no snow north of trenton

wow that is ugly...looks more like convective precip lol

Awful model