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the profile picture is of the anime series naruto shippuden with the character kakashi hatake a friend of mine got me into the anime series but had trouble keeping up with both of the subtitles and scenes but i have seen that movie karate kid movie series and its a great movie

Couple of nice looking storm cells out there tonight. One near Rose City, Michigan, south of Huron National Forest, and one northwest of London, Ontario.

I'd be curious to hear everyone's input on this, especially those that know what is going on with the weather models. For the last 5 to 8 years, I have been noticing a pronounced trend in the models high temp forecasts to be excessively too hot. This is particularly evident in the summer time high temps for DFW. The operational GFS is the worst, in fact so bad, I have to throw its numbers out beyond day 3 when forecasting. To be clear, I'm talking about the raw numbers of the model itself not the MOS numbers. The raw GFS numbers can be as much as 8 to 20 degrees hotter than what actually verifies. It consistently forecasts high temp values above 110°F, sometimes as high as 120°F plus. First off, the hottest temp ever recorded here is 113°F, and we have only been 110°F or warmer 14 times out of 125 years of records. So that is absurd! If I had to pick a model to forecast summertime temps for the DFW area, it seems the Canadian ensemble average is the closest to what actually verifies. The ECMWF was a close second until this summer. It has now skewed warmer. This summer all of the models tend to want to forecast temps into the 100s when there is no valid reason for that if one looks at the pattern. Our normal temp in the height of summer is 97°F. The NBM numbers are being skewed too warm because of this. So what is happening?

UHI isn't as big of a factor as you'd think it is. For example... RFD has is sitting at 18 days and ARR is sitting at 21 says. 3/4th of RFD is surrounding by open land and corn fields. ARR is in an entirely rural area, fully surrounded by corn fields. MSN is actually situated in a better location for UHI effects that either of them, but, does have the smaller lakes to the SW/S too contend with.

Apparently, it seems that there is a concerted effort underway to discredit Phoenix's monthly temperature record from yesterday. Apparently, the individual is unaware that Phoenix's ASOS was commissioned, which means it meets federal siting requirements. Therefore, there's no need to throw out its readings. Second, and more importantly, the heat was real as nearby data from East Mesa, Tempe ASU, Scottsdale, etc., show. That additional data reveals that Phoenix was not an isolated hot spot. The individual's statement is unserious and ill-informed.

Daniel San?

well apparently sharpie markers were not invented until 1964

I made a post in the other thread. Over the last 3 years, Detroit has seen a total of 26 days of 90+ while Chicago has seen 67. This year, Detroit has seen 10 to Chicago's 23.

Yes.

You ordering a new Davis?

Another fantastic day with sun and a high of 75 degrees.

Omg

It's coming

If can stay like this for tomorrow morning/afternoon this'll be perfect...the reenactment I'm doing fell on the perfect week!

High of 82.8 at 4:10pm. 5.22" over the whole event. 6.20" for the month so far. Can't believe the flooding at Bond Park! Separately, this may be the last transmission from my OG Davis Vantage Vue. I'm tired of replacing the battery (also $$$) as I've fallen victim to the capacitor issue. Also developed comms issues with the station. 2008-2025, RIP. Looking forward to the new touch screen model scheduled to arrive next week.

May John Burns rest in peace. May his memory always be an inspiration.

Toured the National Weather Center complex in Norman, Oklahoma today! Highly recommend if any of you ever come down here. No severe wx though. Just very hot and dry. Temps near 100.

Did they have Sharpies back then?

Unfortunately in 1954 it took the human computers using slide rulers until 1956 to produce the next day's track forecast! Lol

Hasn't rained in about 9 days, so hopefully that keeps flooding to a minimum. That first big MCS tomorrow afternoon/evening could shove the focus for heavier rains to follow further to the south towards the MO border.

I was just at the nature preserve in Oceanside. It was a gorgeous day to watch some birds. I saw a bunch of different species, geese and seagulls not included haha

This morning, the temperature fell to 64° in Central Park. That was the third consecutive day with a low of 64° or below and the second such streak during the first 10 days of August. The last time that happened was way back in 1921. Tomorrow will again see highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s with lows falling into the upper 60s in New York City. A new round of heat will likely begin to develop on Sunday. The region will likely experience a return of 90° or above heat next week. Temperatures could top out in the middle or perhaps even upper 90s in the hot spots when the heat peaks during the Tuesday through Thursday period. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around July 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer. The SOI was +15.11 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.595 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 53% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.4° (0.3° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

actually yeah, that's a hell of a signal

Storms off the carolinas look awesome from the atlantic. I dont wanna come home lol