All Activity

Yep. Known biases. Now, the biases change with the system.

Who is this dude and what did he do with the real bncho? But for real the post quality improved vastly and quickly haha

Make it 12 months of winter!

Nice! We had some mood flakes while driving home from Farmington last evening. Snow squalls are admittingly hit or miss, but we get the miss at a high percentage, except when we lived in Fort Kent where they were common.

Agreed, and I don't know what's up with March this decade but there's only been snow in March 2022. The rest of the years have been snowless in March. March 2020 and 2023 was good for New England but mainly rain for us.

Anecdotally, this is the 2nd slowest start to winter storm names by the weather channel. I'm sure I'll get weenied for this, but I'm just introducing this evidence to show how dry it has been this winter. The slowest start to winter storm names by the weather channel was last winter, 2025. The weather channel isn't the best at adhering to their own criteria when naming the storms (2 million+ people have to be under winter storm warning in order for it to be named), but they're pretty good at adhering to their criteria aside from a few exceptions. Just goes to show how dry the past 2 winters have been. In 2023 and 2024, the lack of cold air was a problem for many east of the Plains. But in 2025 and 2026, there hasn't been a shortage of cold, there's been a shortage of precipitation. Almost like winter in the 1930s lol

Snow is good anytime, but February is melt season and often the beginning of mud season. December- and January snow is more emotionally and aesthetically valuable at our latitude.

Moderator bncho ladies and gentlemen.

I still think the only thing going for us is that NYC had a good december, and that tends to correlate well with the rest of winter (when it's a La Nina winter). But even now, we have fallen below average, and it just sees so hard to score something over here. We'll have to wait for a Feb 2015, Feb 2021, or Feb 2013 scenario. In all 3 of those years, most of December and January was a dud until end of the month and then we had a wintry February to bring us up to average or above average.

I noticed this coincided with the relay off the Pacific into the more physically realized sounding domain out west, which began taking place over the last 30 hours ...

You rolled the dice and got snake eyes apparently.

This 1,000%. So much has to be in place for a KU.

you're right, actually, h5 has been looking pretty damn good this winter (e.g. Jan 15 ULL) but those h5 looks aren't translating to the surface, where's it's often cold and dry.

Verification proves each run is more likely to be accurate now, however there is more chaos imo. 20 years ago I think I was able to use the models more functionally. They weren’t more likely to be correct but they had more consistent fail patterns you could adjust for. Now they fail in different ways that are impossible to predict run to run.

Agreed. The favorable "look" though always had some missing pieces in my book. No doubt it looked reasonably good aloft for a time and it was worth watching but some key pieces always seemed to be missing.

Any model is going to have a greater degree of error past 5 days than in the short term. So many different pieces need to fall in to place to get a huge snowstorm for the big cities in the Atlantic corridor. The Greenland block needs to be in just the right spot. EPO, NAO, AO, PNAall set up just right. MJO in the right phase. Not too strong of a high coming down from Canada. Anything out of place and that big storm doesn't form or hit. This is why I try not to get excited about anything past 5 days, no matter which model is showing something.

I storm chased in the Plains most years 1992-2016.

Oh, I'm NOT 'doom and gloom', more irritated at following 10-30 day outlooks when I should know better. Yes, the 'uppers' have looked great most of the winter (well, except for that Christmas week, which it did a great job of picking up) and then the closer we get to those 'good looks'.....

Agreed. We are at least in the game for the next few weeks. All we can ask for here in the subtropics. CPC has us below normal temps on days 6-10 and days 8-14. Precip looks hard to find though.

I absolutely love your spirit, enthusiasm, optimism and love of weather. Don't give up. One day the big one will come. Half the fun is in the tracking so we watch and wait. It is only half time for meteorological winter so we'll see what the second half delivers.

Yes, IIRC, when you mentioned the Dec 1994 hybrid storm (really a 70 kt hurricane, and the it will likely get included as one officially once the Hurricane Reanalysis Project reaches the 90s - it is in the early 70s now), I went to CoastalWx, "how did you know about that?!" Well, a valid question b/c there was no snow w/ it!

That’s been getting can kicked this season too.

Rinse, lather, repeat. Same thing will happen with the signal around the 20th.

The hype started based on long-range anomaly charts about a week ago. A favorable "look" on those charts is like cat-nip to some people. The ICON, then GFS, and eventually ECM gave credence to this hype for a while.

Time to gas up for the cape system.