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Good update, perhaps people should stop stepping on the pbp, it would be helpful.

I was 5

Euro ensembles will likely support the op. Hopefully the euro is done trending west at h5 and the surface will get better. We may not know for sure until Friday at this rate.

were these damn kids even around when the Euro nailed Sandy?

It’s just a lot of mix signaling. Every midlands come west with the lobe. CMC was kinda ridiculous. So there’s a clear trend westward up top. Maybe this time the euro is the outlier and the GFS leads the way. Guess we’ll end the standoff by tomm. NAM is out of range but the fact that it backed up the gfs keeps me interested.

Its 125 miles west of 12z

It's the GFS against the world. But the Euro gives the cape 1"+ qpf. Another move nw like this one would get that qpf up to the Boston area. But if the GFS starts heading east at 06 and/or 12z, it's probably time to move on to the next threat.

Figured we may as well have a thread for this. All modeling except the Ukie and ICON have basically 2+ inches of snow from the Western side of the Plateau and points east. With several being more wide spread and much heavier. Extreme cold is also a story. We could have 20-1 or even higher ratios. The Euro has Saturday afternoon temps 30 to 35 degrees BN across the state. We could have snow falling with wind chills below 0, and if the GFS is to be believed, incredible snowfall totals, especially for NC border counties. The event is basically 3 days away from beginning. Let's reel something in!

Any mention of the 00z ICON-EPS? solid hit over eastern areas.

Meh, with how much the Euro jumped at 18z and with the north tick on the 00Z GEFS, I was beginning to think we might have to contend with the rain/snow line. The 00z Euro is underwhelming but importantly keeps all of NC in the game for snow.

Starting to lose confidence of major snow for the metros. Yeah maybe a decent event for NC, DelMarva and Cape Cod. DC, Baltimore,Philly and NYC metros are probably getting the finger. The solution from Sunday night that had 2 feet in Harrisburg and 4 feet in Garrett County is definitely not coming back.

Remember guys, the last storm was all about the south until it wasn't. Just an observation, but I see these things move west and north more than I do East.

Euro trend is moving Max West

Euro is a moose fart away from nailing eastern areas.

I think the GFS has a better handle on this. It was made for this type of storm.

That's from the 12z run. Though, doesn't look much different than that at 0z

We got it

Yes, it'll probably be a trend like @Terpeaststated.

Won't it take a few runs for the models to really get a handle on the new data?

West of 12z, basically in line/slightly east of 18z

10:1 euro map

Euro turned negative too late for all

Euro turned negative too late for all

Anyone have new euro snow map?

Takeaways for the 0z runs are that that the globals are still shifting with the northern stream and fairly large disagreements remain. Accentuated by the fact the evolution is very sensitive. Convective feedback / parameterization issues starting to show with the rapid deepening. We wait.