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That’s not far off the UK .

toms river i meant

I don't know! I just got here. Though I think they do better when it comes to freezing rain and surface cold air but this setup to my knowledge is all based on 850-700mb warm layers which should torch faster the further south. I'm just worried that I end up with a major ice storm of freezing rain.

It has more of a “doing things that don’t make sense” bias. And it only gets worse the longer it runs.

NAM juicing things up in central TX/AR at 54 comparatively to 6z run.

spot on

For reference concerning snow-liquid ratios with storms that had 1"-2" QPF, as currently shown on the NBM: So, assuming a ratio of 11:1-13:1 during the height of the storm (0.50"-0.75" QPF), NYC seems in very good shape to see at least 6" of snow and well-positioned for even higher amounts, even if sleet mixes in or a transition to sleet occurs. This storm remains on track to be the biggest storm New York City has seen in nearly 4-5 years.

Its mainly click bait, In no way i would go out of the gate with the upper end of the potential scale.

Will arrows be used?

But did that much really fall if it’s not OTG?

Agreed. I'd want at least a couple of inches of snow under the layer of ice, otherwise you have no chance of getting it clear...it will be a nightmare regardless...i'll probably just wait for it to end tho...

Got my ranges...just need to get the time to draw everything up.

If I recall. Doesn't Nam have a warm bias and an over amped bias?

Nam and euro not far off there’s one main difference and it’s the trailing h5 energy I marked

Any Miller B storm can be tricky, let alone a weaker system. There could be some wrinkles yet to come.

NAM with precip on NC's doorstep at 15Z Saturday. That's faster onset.

Atari 2600 lol

Subtle yet potentially impactful changes out to 48 when weighing anything between sleet vs freezing rain. Heights slightly lower and HP also about 2 mb stronger.

For sure. The kicker to that is multiple globals were showing big snow for a big chunk of NC within the 72 hour window. If I remember correctly, that was Tuesday 18z, and at that time the start of the precip was roughly Friday evening or overnight at the latest. It was the 0z models a few hours later that started the real warning signs. I know it sucks for the TV people. They know all this info is shared across social media so they have to keep people in check while at the same time having no idea what the actual outcome will be until closer to 24-48 hours.

Really would love too, but today is my beer selling day in Moco. One day soon we’ll catch up though. Promise.

It's laziness and sensationalism all tied into one terd.

Commodore 64.

Cue the Ralph Wiggum NAM GIF lol

I can tell you how this will play out where I am. It will be in the 20's with sleet/ZR in Buncombe County and rain with temps in the mid 40's IMBY with roaring SW winds a few hundred feet above me sounding like a 747. Having a warm nose take a way your winter storm is bad enough, but listening to it just adds to the misery lol.

Deep Mind