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Enjoy, family is also Norwegian, spent a month there summer before high school with family that still lives there and hoping to get back to experience it again. Absolutely gorgeous country.

someone should tell them Newark isn't located in Middlesex County - as for todays precip the flow is southwesterly and so far nothing has developed to our southwest but its still very early - another question is - how unstable is the atmosphere going to actually get later today to produce any watches and where exactly is this all going to setup - favored areas in central NJ and NYC??? or can that change ?

True lol. I forgot there's like 5 of us that care about severe. I just love thunderstorms. Not like I love snow. Thunderstorms are spicy. They've tried to kill me a few times lol. I like seeing those breaks to the west and sw. Let's see what today does. I'm headed down to Fort Washington this morning. On days like today I look like the guy on Good Fellas driving down the road looking at the sky watching for helicopters following him. I look the same but watching for sun lol

Got .20, first rain in weeks

Higher heat and humidity will be building in through the first week of August.

To set the record straight, 25/26 rather than 23/24 is the winter that I said that @bluewavewas too harsh on as regards the 8/1/25 Euro and mid-July ‘25 CFS performance overall for the Conus. They forecasted ~+2F anomalies for the Conus averaged out geographically (I posted them), which was ~36F. That means they were predicting the 7th or 8th warmest winter on record back to 1895. It ended up at 37.1F, which is ~3F above both the 1993-2016 climo base of the Euro and the 1991-2020 climo base of the CFS and the 2nd warmest on record. That’s a decent performance by these two imho, especially with DJF being ~6 months out! They missed by ~1F. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/62593-2026-2027-super-el-nino/?do=findComment&comment=8114996

Jesus

Hmm

Made it to my grandparents’ homeland… Norwegian family here. Second time over in Norway, but man, this place is absolute sensory overload. Fun watching the Red Sox win 14 from various airports too, ha. Hard to drive with this going on around you..

NAM 3K probably has the right idea because it screws this area. Still think this is a congrats NYC to S coast to SE Mass .. or even a bit south . Hopefully wrong but that’s the gut feeling

I honestly can’t recall the last time I called that body of water anything other than “the Gulf”.

I mean being on water is a riskier space buuuuut cmon lol

EF2 raked my subdivision in Remington. Lost 6 homes in my subdivision, including my next door neighbor's house. I lost one shudder - go figure.

I work overnight (Sunday to Wednesday) so I have time to post lol Disco says we should get some breaks soon as the WF goes by... we shall see as you said

66 degrees for the low. Fishing got canceled this morning because of the threat of severe weather. It was supposed to be rain showers this morning. But the sun is shining heating things up.

i have a 6500 watt portable generator that I plug into an outlet outside the house which goes to a transfer switch. it is super easy, and powers everything I need, heat, water (on a well), and most importantly internet. i could use microwave but don't because it is obviously a huge power suck, and can't use the stove/oven.

If you lose power that much then a standalone is worth it. PG’s are good for basic needs (fridge, ac, heat, oven, etc) as long as you have the wiring installed by a pro. There is alot of good ones on the market at a fraction of the cost of standalones. It just depends how much power you need. https://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/infrastructure/a64917889/how-to-connect-a-generator-to-your-house/?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=mgu_ga_pop_m_bm_prog_org_us_a64917889&gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=23528319530&gbraid=0AAAAADCyiSlllkc8D1E59aDuuyYUORV7j&gclid=CjwKCAjwsfzSBhB5EiwAOGyqSSHSQy-bRh7GGYXtx3pUUINzlpjhy5SGDB0gRV2YQbxGfKzTwrmyXBoCF4EQAvD_BwE

Light drizzle north of Winchester

Our severe crew isn't always up super early (except @yoda who seems to never sleep lol). We don't do the wall-to-wall posting as well as the larger winter crowd. I'd expect by 9-10am you'll get some more of the folks posting in here. Pretty cloud in Colesville, MD right now. Haven't looked at visible sat yet though

Man, this would be a cruel joke. Temps come down enough for tomatoes to ripen, and 3 inches of rain comes along to split them all.

First week of Augdewst signs of heat and humidity building in for extended time

2023-2024 wasn’t even close in your area or mine from the seasonal models. What difference does it matter if they are warm or too cold? An incorrect forecast is an incorrect forecast if you are interested in trying to figure out your sensible weather. I understand some posters like yourself enjoy posing forecasts that they would personally like to see. Nothing wrong with that. But wouldn’t you like to actually post a model run that has a chance of being correct rather than what you want it to show? I mostly post longer range ENSO plumes forecasts and general SST forecasts from the seasonal models where they can sometimes have more skill. If I post a temperature or 500 mb forecast, it’s mostly to see where the model might be or has made an error in the past. I also see several posters mention that they are only interested in their own backyard or local area. That’s OK also. But if you want to understand how to find the potential range of outcomes you need to have a broader understanding of how your area is related to the greater patterns in the region, continent, and planet. It just so happens that as the world warms, the weather records count is more heavily skewed toward warmth than cold. So the models just have more opportunities to be wrong about the magnitude of the warmth. And yes they do miss the cold from time to time also. But since cold is less frequent these days, the opportunities are less. In my region we have had over 50 top 10 warmest months since 2010 and only one top 10 coldest. Many most of those top ten warmest months weren’t forecast by the longer range climate models. The one top 10 coldest month during February 2015 wasn’t forecast either. We posted many of the incorrect model forecasts at the time of how the long range weeklies missed the pattern change to colder in February. I remember there were literally dozens of posts about how the weeklies missed the record cold in February from the long range. I can guarantee you that I we had a climate getting colder rather than warmer, I would post maps of the models missing the cold long range. There would probably be some posters that would say why I am I so focused on the models missing the cold and I only am interested in the cold.

Morning discussion from LWX on the threat today DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely today, with some thunderstorm risk lingering into Wednesday. Higher dew points have been advecting into the area with moisture and instability increasing in S/SW flow. So far shower activity has been isolated and short lived. However, a subtle shortwave is approaching, and some of the convection currently across WV and SW VA could persist or redevelop across the area through the early morning hours. Areas of stratus are also forming. Both of these features could inhibit surface heating this morning, although it does appear we should have some partial sun by midday as the warm front continues to lift to the north. This should be enough to allow temperatures to rise into the mid 80s to lower 90s. Combined with dew points in the 70s, at least moderate surface based instability should develop, highest east of the Blue Ridge Mountains. A seasonably strong trough will be approaching from the west, providing forcing and anywhere between 30 and 50 kt of flow in the cloud bearing layer. This will provide a favorable environment for severe thunderstorms, with supercells and clusters both possible. One initiation region will likely be along the prefrontal/lee trough near or just east of the Blue Ridge. These storms will likely affect the I-95 corridor between mid afternoon and early evening. While these storms will certainly carry severe potential, it is interesting to note on average the 850-700 mb wind fields will be greater to our south and west until late afternoon or early evening. Other details remain unresolved, especially the effects of upstream convection that moved through the upper Great Lakes and mid Mississippi Valley. This could have some impact on how thunderstorms develop across the Ohio Valley this afternoon and what subsequently moves into western areas. If stronger/more widespread convection does not move in from the Ohio Valley, there is some potential there is a relative minimum in coverage between the Blue Ridge and Alleghenies. The coverage of afternoon storms and upstream effects will determine what happens this evening as the strongest forcing overspread the area along with increasing low level wind fields. A second round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible for some areas, though increasing low level stability may limit the severe weather threat. It appears the evening/overnight coverage could gradually shift to southern parts of the forecast area, or even mostly to our south, potentially focusing on outflow from earlier activity. Damaging winds will be the primary severe hazard, although large hail and a tornado or two are possible if supercells develop. Some localized swaths of more considerable wind damage are possible. Relatively speaking, the tornado threat is higher to the north (and north of the CWA) closer to the warm front and possibly closer to the Chesapeake Bay where low level winds could be backed. With that said, forecast hodographs vary quite a bit between models and also throughout time, so any relatively higher threat will depend on the mesoscale details. With precipitable water values increasing (over 2 inches east of the Blue Ridge), any storm mergers and training along mesoscale boundaries could result in localized flash flooding. Overall storm motions will be progressive though, so this threat appears too localized for a Flood Watch at the moment and will continue to be evaluated. Additional areas to monitor will be the Ohio Valley low level jet potentially leading to training (looks to be mostly west of the area), and the evening low level jet leading to backbuilding along any residual outflow/convergence feature (best QPF signal is currently mostly south of the forecast area).

No big dews or heat waves in sight. What a fantastic summeh.