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Thats what she said.

I hope you get more. I know this event has been meh for you.

Tipping points are a hell of a drug. The issue is that climate change is of course gradual, the average temperatures trend up over a 30 year period, but to those living it appears as these shocking discrepancies. To the data aggregate it appears as a line ticking, then jumping, up. But to us, climate change appears as a Hurricane Helene, as another heat done over Europe, and as a realization that “it doesn’t snow here like it used to”. The 2016 El Niño and these oceanic processes are our heat transport mechanisms, and when you have major El Niño events you release a ton of heat from the oceans and thus effectively “jump” into the next, ever warmer, climate. It will snow again, we will have a HECS again (it may even be this winter!), but you will also see these droughts where the isotherm has simply shifted too far north for us to reliably get snowstorms. It is what it is.

Yea we got stuck under one of those feeder bands all evening. The yard is a swamp. Wrapping up now and 5.06”.

Finished up with 2.24" yesterday and 0.27" this morning, for a 3-day event total of 3.16"and month total of 8.89". Storm center has crawled its way up to LI. Currently an overcast and misty 62 with dp 60.

As of now I agree some locations in the region will reach 85 or higher Friday afternoon - the 850 temps are several degrees above normal and in front of the cold front winds will be from the southwest - BUT if that cooler air speeds up and makes it here earlier in the day then expected temps won't max out so high - when you are 4 days away from an event always good to keep your options open - also how much cloud cover in advance of the front ?

The never say die Fay gets within 40 miles of Bermuda on the 12Z UKMET at 168! TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 27.3N 44.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062026 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 28.09.2026 0 27.3N 44.7W 1014 26 0000UTC 29.09.2026 12 26.0N 45.6W 1013 24 1200UTC 29.09.2026 24 24.8N 47.4W 1012 24 0000UTC 30.09.2026 36 23.9N 49.1W 1012 25 1200UTC 30.09.2026 48 23.5N 51.7W 1011 27 0000UTC 01.10.2026 60 23.4N 53.7W 1012 29 1200UTC 01.10.2026 72 24.2N 56.1W 1012 29 0000UTC 02.10.2026 84 24.9N 57.9W 1013 28 1200UTC 02.10.2026 96 25.8N 59.8W 1012 30 0000UTC 03.10.2026 108 26.5N 61.2W 1012 29 1200UTC 03.10.2026 120 27.5N 62.3W 1011 31 0000UTC 04.10.2026 132 28.6N 63.0W 1011 31 1200UTC 04.10.2026 144 29.8N 63.7W 1012 29 0000UTC 05.10.2026 156 30.9N 64.4W 1012 29 1200UTC 05.10.2026 168 32.9N 64.6W 1014 26

But many of them do not do now casting..

JF was a problem. Yes was an ugly loss. All PSU fans should have tempered their expectations for year 1

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hanna Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082026 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 28 2026 ...TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORMS IN THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.6N 50.4W ABOUT 870 MI...1400 KM ENE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hanna was located near latitude 36.6 North, longitude 50.4 West. Hanna is moving toward the east near 17 mph (28 km/h). An east to east-southeast motion is forecast over the next few days. Satellite wind data indicates that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb

All short lived, except Fay. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 5 (5) Hurricanes: 3 (0) Major Hurricanes: 1 (0) Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna

given what most seem to be indicating for the upcoming winter, i think everyone in the sub would take this in a NY minute.

Well they do... the effort is referred to as "now-casting" ... The idea is to tailor the forecast as the results are unfolding, which moves the goal posts on whichever metric is or isn't behaving according to the plan. ...etc I good example of this is flood headline management. There's a flash flood watch issue mid way through the event, or not. Warnings then will or won't need applying ... based upon what is observed. They can forecast a high wind warning, and if only three reports of down trees occurs, that by definition verifies the warning - even though the general dystopian hobbyists expects down forests. LOL ...kidding there but you get it...

Will probably be down with family (we live just up in the neighborhood from there).

2026-2027 Winter Outlook Temps Dec:0 to +2 Jan:-1 to +1 Feb:-5 Snowfall range 20-25” primary analogs:1962-63, 2002-03, 2012-13 There are variabilities in those years but they best compare to what I observed this spring thru now. We do get some Miller As this year and some repeats of what we just had with lows being more intense and closer to the coast . Problem is temps like in 97-98 but Feb looks plenty cold enough .

That’s interesting

Well. I am sufficiently soaked. I believe we can officially declare the drought over.

There's research out there (but yeah you could argue lack of sample size) which shows a great deal of trust within weather forecasts, particularly with weather forecasts from local outlets.

Finished with 13" at 10:1

Not sure if you heard about the new series on Paramount+....Team Moms - Baseball. Classic trash TV, but does capture the craziness with some of these teams.

Just about 3 inches now

I think we all would take anything over MC forcing, which is the worst.....another thing to think about is if this El Nino is strong enough to pull all of the forcing east, as Chris seems to imply, then that would eradicate any MC influence....which he has stated in the past has acted to accentuate the warmth in recent El Nino events relative to past events, so this season could end up a bit cooler due to that....lots to think about. A bit of MC influence could leak into central forcing, but not east.

Finally got some decent rain - 0.70" overnight. Mostly very light rain since, event total including Sunday early is approaching 0.90", biggest precip since August 3.

i'm supposed to play some music at the Westover Day festival in Arlington on Saturday - I guess we will see.