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lol that's exactly what I just told someone at work Then again, there are still a LOT of ingredients at play here beyond cape. Mets seem to think there's sufficient lifting, so we may not be too dependent on daytime heating. It'll still be an interesting day regardless... and it looks like those winds will almost certainly mix down either way as well.
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
pawatch replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
53 degrees and drizzle. Picked .08” of rain overnight. NWS cut down on my rain totals overnight. Went from 1,55” to 1.11” today. -
My benchmark for crapvection in these events if 9-10am. If things look socked in by 9 or 10 am, it's often times a bust. If there's ANY breaks in sun by that time, it ramps the threat level up substantially. Even then, still ways it can be muted.
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Yeah I'd much rather trade that in for two rounds lol - I think that first round might really ruin things for us, but who knows. My primary PWS in Middleburg is already 64 deg w/ DP of 62.8.
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Man I didn't realize so many Mid-Atlantic severe peeps are on the Doom-And-Gloom Express (based on last night's posts). Need to reprise my role of hype man for these events.
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I was hoping to chase down an EF3 with my work truck this afternoon over on the eastern shore. I need sunshine and super cells.
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Pouring’un
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It actually tries for like 3ish rounds - I'm not sure I buy that but who knows. It has the pre-frontal stuff, a line in the afternoon, and then a frontal line it looks like of heavily forced showers with high winds. Has some UH swaths come through around 3-4pm.
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10z HRRR has some pre-line stuff and then a decent looking line later on.
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
mahantango#1 replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Live NWS update from State College NWS https://www.facebook.com/reel/1253372836765634 -
Those are clear skies an hour after that first line and not a long distance from the main line here in the foothills. That can’t bode well for folks down east. .
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BooneWX started following Severe Weather Thread 2026
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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2026 Obs/Discussion
Mikeymac5306 replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Are we having a repeat of last Thursday where we get a little white rain on the back end of this? -
This closest analog in our area for out of season historic warmth and 500mb ridging was probably February 2018 with that record ridge and early 80° heat. But this heat will be more extended and of a greater magnitude over a larger region. Plus the location and coming a month later allows for much higher actual temperatures.
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Very dangerous cell. Tornado Warning National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 712 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued a * Tornado Warning for... East central Madison County in western North Carolina... Central Yancey County in western North Carolina... * Until 745 AM EDT. * At 712 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 8 miles east of Marshall, or near Mars Hill, moving northeast at 40 mph.
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2025-2026 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread
Buckethead replied to Buckethead's topic in Southeastern States
Wow. It's crazy here y'all. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk -
Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
WmsptWx replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Happy Death Day to all who celebrate -
Models ramped up for this one
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Water vapor satellite imagery is actually encouraging.
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Spring 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
Holston_River_Rambler replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Pretty enthused that this afternoons potential precip shield is looking is looking less potential and more actual this AM: There was even a severe t-storm warning associated with it earlier. Now we see if the cold air can make it.- 63 replies
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I think it’s gonna mix down quite well later today. Gonna blow pretty good this evening
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HRRR has been rock steady since yesterday that we don't lose the clouds today.
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