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It's been the same Niña base state, despite Niño in 23/24, so I'd believe it.

Cloudy as well. I don't like a sunny Christmas. You can leave the outdoor lights on and people will be able to see them better...

Here is the difference between the mean and actually what the individual members depict. As is, that not a slam dunk warm pattern. Many of those are BN for temps or headed that way within the next slide or two. When you look at the mean, it is easy to assume that we are headed for a warm pattern. It is why the deterministic models have to be given a bit more weight than normal.

That's not ridge bridge................................. That's euphuked

Kind of surprising considering how warm it looked the last two days. Still not totally buying it, but this is clearly a very volatile look. I don’t trust anything out in LR right now given the weird exotic blocking we’ve been seeing showing from time to time.

"It's getting late early" is a famous Yogi Berra "Yogi-ism," meaning time seems to pass quickly, especially when you're not paying attention or when a situation requires urgent action

IDK. There are definitely some colder winters with it there. I was surprised when I went and looked last year. There has to be Atlantic help to overcome it. It is the rex block which it creates which is the problem, and that (to the best of my knowledge) doesn't form every time. There are some crazy good winters with teleconnections which are out of whack.

Happy to report that the ski trails fared the storm really well. Even all natural terrain and glades are still in good shape with some decent powder stashes from the few inches we got overnight.

Literally +110 odds lmao

I’d give them a decent shot now but we got a ways to go. This system will probably have two maxes. The area that gets hit from the initial warm advection and clipper and then from the developing surface low offshore. Someone in between will get the shaft. Right now the prime shaft zones may be places like central MA down through CT and central to eastern LI. It’s a case where Morristown could see more snow than New Haven

Late to the party on account of a full shit clog in my basement U joint, quite an experience. For what I just went through, I’m now demanding GFS verification.

The key for any winter weather and cold of any significance moving forward is to dislodge the aleutian ridge. Imo, that's the main thing to watch. We shall see

26 for the low

Icestorm conditions

A little Hudson Bay ridge tries to form for Boxing Day. Seems like a change, we hope it’s right.

If you created a median(and not mean) of temps after d10, it would look MUCH different than the mean on the GEFS. Roughly 5/30 crazy warm members are skewing the temps warm. That means ensembles are stuck in catchup mode.

I really like the BOMM MJO which is shown on the CPC today. It rotates the MJO rapidly through the warm phases. It is sitting in phase 3/4 around NY and that isn't always a bad spot for snow. I don't see any model camping out in 6...maybe 48-72 house at the most. There is a bit of trend in modeling to dry out the MC if I heard JB correctly. The signal will still likely be weak. That means other drivers could take over the pattern. That also means the Aleutian Ridge is probably on the clock now.

65-68 will be nice for the kids to get outside and play with their gifts. I’m looking forward to some hiking and fishing these next 10 days.

Tip was spot on about the shortwave grapeshot earlier this month wreaking havoc on the models. Different synoptic setup here, but still a relentless barrage of weakish vorticity packets passing through the region. I don’t think we’re near the final solutions for post-Christmas. That said, the late month signal should coalesce into its final form with more lead time than the medium range events did/will.

Mt. Washburn view from Yellowstone NP. This particular webcam is mostly in the clouds these days, even with the general lack of snow. The other web cams show some non-snowy ground at the entrances to the park North Entrance- Electric peak

The 12z AI-GFS has snow storm on NYE. The CMC is very close as well.

My lord we pray it’s right. We’d get smoked here through the 26th.

Sometimes I wonder if I died a few years ago and this is purgatory. Last week’s 5” snow event was just enough to keep me from questioning reality. I bet if I go back through my screen shots I can find this same ridge bridge pattern over the last 3-4 years. .

I know. So much PTSD since 2022, but we hope and pray it has the right idea.