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Not contesting that. It still does not change that it is detrimental to the public b/c of misinformation or gross exaggeration, or the ethical and moral issues.
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Hype = revenue. not changing
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Something to keep in mind w/ the fcst upcoming heat and big ridge in the CONUS, and a good FYI b/c I have found the MSM and others had no concept of perspective and context, let alone wx history. 600 dm 500 mb height is often used a benchmark for record heat. But it is *far* more common than one would think, just by RAOBs alone. Attached is a .txt list I got some years ago of all 600+ dm height for NAMR RAOBs. It has occurred 199 times from 1957-2006 - hardly a rare occurrence overall. In recent decades, we tend to see 600 dm height on model analyses and forecasts more b/c the resolution of the models has increased significantly, so that's not really an apples to apples comparison as to change in frequency over time. RAOBs are in situ, directly measured, not model output. Of note in the list: 604.5 dm Adak AK (ADK) July 1980 That high that far N?...wow. But it makes sense, there was an intense heat wave/drought in the CONUS that summer, so upstream was also quite anomalous! What kind of sigma deviation value would show up here I wonder? You know, those 500 mb height values used by climate alarmists -- e.g. "a one in a 75 million year occurrence!" Which is obviously bunk. The wx in the real world doesn’t follow a Gaussian/normal distribution curve. Extreme events are far more common in a non-Gaussian distribution that reflects the physical world we live in. This is a case of lying or conflating an issue using statistics. 602.6 dm Wallops Island VA (WAL) July 1986 Make sense, SEUS very hot that month. 609.0 dm Chatham MA (CHH) Sep 1989 This was the very strong ridge that flung Hurricane Hugo into SC, and the highest on record for Mid-Atlantic or NEUS in the period. I do recall this ridge, and seeing Sable Island, Nova Scotia RAOB 600 dm. Somehow I missed the CHH value! And it was *not* record heat anywhere on the E Coast. Very tropical and warm for mid-Sep, but not that hot. 612.2 dm Peachtree City GA (FFC) Sep 1994 For a lower elevation location, relatively speaking, that is amazing. Most 600+ dm values are found in high elevation sites. 11 instances of 610.0 dm or higher in the data, enough to suggest that this is attainable w/o equipment error. 601.0 dm Whitehorse YK (YXY) Feb and Oct 1996 Again, that high that far N?, and one in Feb no less! Goes to show it is not always a warm season phenomena, let alone associated w/ record warm temps (why heat done is misleading). In early Feb 1996 there was record Arctic outbreak in the CONUS w/ Tower MN dropping to -60 F. namr600hgt1.txt
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Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
donsutherland1 replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
"Intense heat destroys even the temper of steel..."-George Prentice. It was that kind of day in France, Spain, and the UK today. In Paris, no relief was found under the trees of Jardin du Luxembourg as the mercury rose to 42.2C (108.0F). The UK recorded its hottest June temperature on record with a high of 36.1C (97.0F) at Gosport. As a result of the ongoing heatwave, which is France's worst June heatwave on record, 2026 already accounts for the second most all-time record high temperatures for any calendar year. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
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Wow the lag time on the board today is brutal
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Next week looks typical summer. 80-85 around here. My pool needs some heat. Currently at 66F. this didn’t post for some reason. Pool now at 68F. Still not warm enough
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The Canadian models are a soaker for Saturday, but most other models show very little. We'll have to see if most of the rain misses to the south.
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Haven’t noticed any slowness until today
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Junorch obs and discussion 2026
Damage In Tolland replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
It’s been an issue for about the past week . And no one answers when you ask -
wars because of said food/water shortages
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given recent tendencies, sounds like that means sprinkles Saturday and actual rain Sunday
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Regarding the Instagram post and its content: Whatever happen to just "heat wave?" Ever notice that is not used anymore? Marketing. Change the lingo to sell it better, nothing more. Also, attached the GFS 850 temp anomalies today and valid 7/2. Just focus on the heat, and ignore cool wx for this time of year, as if all that matters is population where it is hot? That's cherry-picking and blatant bias, never mind fear-mongering and only focusing on what is "bad." Deplorable behavior for someone who has lots of followers and influence. And what, the fact is gets very hot in the summer is somehow unusual? It would be unusual for it *not* to get very hot at rimes, and some summers are hot all the way through, like 1980 and 1988. Don't get me wrong, I like HHH wx a lot, but can it just BE? Meaning can it occur w/ a million bells and whistles or finding meaning/prophecy of doom?
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more people die from cold exposure per year than heat exposure, there isn't much to disagree about with that what we aren't going to agree on is that AGW is going to result in a neutral or net reduction in deaths, perhaps from believing that fewer people dying from cold exposure will more than make up for the greater number of people dying from heat related deaths ? And this isn’t even taking into account any decreases in food supply attributed to changes in the locations of arable land and longer / more severe droughts disrupting water supplies.
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Our continent just seems too wide for the global wavelengths in summer to be able to get one of your Sonoran airmasses up here before the “ridge runs out”. Get the ridge more on our side and the Bermuda high going and then the airmass just becomes GoM soup and we thermodynamically are limited on the warming potential…but we make up for it with 97/77 type days. We basically have to time it right with brief strong mixing like July 2011 when that prefrontal trough mixed out the dews during the morning and then the CAA lagged until evening so we had a 6hr window with torched mid levels, strong mixing, and downsloping. And obviously any flow from the east side of our meridien is tainted too.
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A less hot pattern would mean more tstms in NW flow w/ your REQUIRED EML! LOL. Be careful what you hope for!
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Although US heat related deaths are rising and should continue to rise from GW, it’s true that far more people have died from cold than from heat (>10:1) and thus GW should in theory result in a net of fewer cold/heat related deaths there for a good while into the future. And this isn’t even taking into account any increases in food supply attributed to longer growing seasons and increased CO2 fertilization effect. So, CC clearly has some benefits regardless of the often emphasized harms that include rising sea levels, increased extreme flooding incidences, and more powerful tropical cyclone peaks/heavier rainfall from warmer temps holding more moisture and slower moving (on avg) TCs: Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality Burden in the US From 2000 to 2020 The Yale University Institutional Review Board approved this case series Findings This case series of 54 223 429 deceased individuals found that both low and high temperatures were significantly associated with mortality burden, with low temperatures associated with more mean annual deaths (45 992) than high temperatures (3414). However, the burden from high temperatures increased by 53% from the 2000-2009 to 2010-2020 study periods. The annual mortality count attributable to low temperatures increased by 7% between the 2000-2009 and 2010-2020 study periods, from 44 278 to 47 551 annual deaths. However, the annual mortality count attributable to high temperatures increased by 53%, from 2670 to 4091 annual deaths. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2841063
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Just under 2" of rain from Monday and yesterday.
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Western Europe is now five of these nuclear synergistic heat bombs since 2003, compared to our zero spanning the same years That being the case when there is a codified positive correlation tele connector between eastern North America western Europe This is somewhat odd
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https://www.instagram.com/reel/DZ-BVyWRCWR/?igsh=MWdyeHVhZ3BjczRueg== LOL
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and East
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A low here of 51 beautiful degrees at the end of June! Current temp is only 67! I know this NW wind has been dry but wow have the temps been very cool.
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TBH, I hope it does setup right over the mid-South and we end up on the eastern periphery. You could bet we would get some EML plumes advecting in at times along with some MCS opportunities...but yeah that all may get shunted towards the mid-Atlantic
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models doing manufacturing physical reasons to shunt tho -
