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Impressive little cold tuck offsetting late Feb insolation. BOS has dropped a few degrees down to 28F. Same temp here with some weenie flakes falling.

Hold me and squeeze me

Classic. Shadow and energy transfer issues.

Is that a song? Honest question I’ve never heard of it.

Although its clear its going to be a beast, the big item too iron out is the diff. Between the US models which have the low further north than the rest of the field. The RAP/NAM/GFS/HRRR are north and 20 plus potential The remaining are a bit further south and 12 plus.

my wife works at s&s in Torrington, was mobbed Fri and said it's getting crazy now... still no warning from ALY, odd

Yes. The temperature was 34° when the snow moved in.

What are we defining as a struggle? Again, we aren’t getting the 12+ totals to our east. But 72 hours ago we weren’t getting anything, except maybe a phantom IVT that’s impossible to pin down with any accuracy. I think 3-6” is a huge win.

See this is why the storm is trending east. God don't like ugly lol

You committed? Have a blast

Checked in on my old stomping grounds up here last night and I saw a hurricane Schwartz didn't buy into high totals. Is that still true?

This may be the biggest snowstorm I’ve ever seen.

Forecast for Lewes/Rehoboth area- Sunday Night Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 10pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow after 1am. Low around 29. Windy, with a northwest wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Monday Snow. Areas of blowing snow. High near 36. Windy, with a northwest wind 20 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

And a log cabin specifically

For all its faults with it's depiction of QPF you can clearly see where banding is on the UKMET. If you're in north western areas I think some good banding will set up even if the surface low doesn't "tuck" close to us.

BOX trying to make some sort of point by still holding on to the watches at this late juncture? Maybe that is why some of the public is downplaying this.

Honestly this feels somewhat realistic not necessarily in totals but in terms of how jackpot will go. The best storm dynamics def favor long island and Jersey coast but you’ll get surprise banding in spots further west that will bump up totals in some areas.

So do we have the sloppy ratios, or do the heavy rates make up for it

We just don’t know

I think it started out near freezing early that Sunday morning. At some point it dropped into the 20s. Some of the old newspaper photos from western LI show insane drifting. Woke up to about 5" of fresh powdery snow this morning near Jackson, NH. About to head for the LI ferry; we're catching both storms

Love seeing the large shift NW on the UKMET. Still the lowest however still a foot.

Hahaha, the mindset of a true champion! I just got back from a week on the road and have a ton going on. Anyone can start one if they like. Adds to the fun!

Spur of the moment autism moment that has me parody Centuries

I'd like to see the 12z Euro come west some but agree that we are getting closer to the meso's wheelhouse.

Pretty much. Yes. The important underlying concept is "restoring" ... Any anomaly are always in an unstable state; nature is always trying to restore back to a state of entropy, or inaction. Thus, action will occur to bring it back to a state of inaction. That is occurring always, in perpetuo. So, when you have an anomaly, relative to another anomaly ...like this week (below ), like -PNA, inside of which there is a d(PNA) on the other of multiple SD... the -PNA may blind the advent of an arena, within which favors the production of a restoring event. All storms are restoring events. It's just a matter of how the restoration goes about finding balance. Global scaled indices, don't produce storms... per se. But, they produce arenas/temporally boundary regimes that are conducive to needing restoration. If you get this .. you can immediately intuitively gather that when nesting anomalies withing greater and greater anomalies, the complexity gets pretty bad pretty quickly. We have to determine the roots, and balance those.