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I think he is referring to anomalies.....obviously the west PAC will always have more convection and VP as a baseline because it's warmer (Walker Cycle)...this is why there is such a high volume of super typhoons out there.

I can't wait for the cold to relax and it warms up, as I think that will offer up more snow...at least for my area.

I had it beginning to shift around the middle of the month, with January starting milder and then shifting cold.

partly cloudy and cold here in White Plains. 29 degrees

Boomer news for boomers lol I think we need to pull this baby out of the LR thread and leave this place for torch talk.

Need 2.2" to hit 20" for the season. A couple of days ago, thought that was a lock between the two waves. Now, better chance at not seeing a flake from both. Pulling for the folks in central IL/IN. Hope these systems overachieve for you.

I never concern myself with DC, so it's not relevent.

tl;dr it’s warmer now? .

Looking at the Euro and GFS runs we'd be right on the line of wintery and rainy even way up here, but overall not terrible. Looks like all the events will be close so plenty of time to trend those all south a bit to get everyone else in on the game.

I’m modestly confused why WBAL in Baltimore has a temp range of 29-32 on Sunday. That’s the high and low. 0z euro has mid-upper 10s by 0z Monday.

Not yet?

GFS won ?

Hilarious how 6z and 18z change all the time from 0z and 12z.

Kevin in convince himself mode lol. It’s a Coating to 2” at most currently for us. But we’ll take it.

Not surprising at all. It’s been such a cold start to the month, knew we’d snap back the other way. With that said, GFS always shows extreme swings in long range. Probably more like upper [emoji[emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]s. .

good luck.

I like 2-4” for ct as of now as a ceiling, hoping we start locking in and mid levels produce some good growth and fluff. But we really can’t afford a gfs euro compromise if so it’s a coating to 2” type deal.

Yes. It was.

Ground zero

Yeah, this thing is hauling ass and our trough just does not amplify enough. I see at most a 1-3” type deal. Will still make for a festive mood and raise those ‘s spirits. I’m not sure we see a full whiff.

GFS mid to upper 70s Christmas Day. Euro gets a small front through on Christmas but 70s on Christmas Eve. Yuck

I’m fully expecting 3-5” inch type deal of fluff . Small chance it amps more , but as of now that’s what it looks like

I was thinking the opposite. Imo it has some boom potential, especially from AA County NE towards South NJ. It doesn't look great for the snow drought areas.

Santa got his shorts for Christmas?

That post was from November 21st as an example of how quickly things changed(back to cold) in modeling. I was commenting at the time about a standing wave which never materialized in reality. I will have some comments hopefully this morning about the possible upcoming pattern change to a ridge over the East. And yes, I do think it is probably a pattern change which will last through the last ten days of December and through most of January....but that isn't a slam dunk just yet, but more of a strong likelihood.