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For better or worse, the majority of users want the big storm and max accumulations for their back yard (fellow board members be damned). Unfortunately few have the ability to set aside biases and ego, and look beyond that primary objective and simply enjoy the track and the ups and downs that come with the model mayhem. Saw it with the last storm, despite folks getting in the max +75% of outcomes, there was still disappointment pre/post storm.

Subtle NW shift on the HRRR through 20... little warmer too, might sacrifice this for a blizzard come Monday Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

Next event after Monday is wed wed pm?

Typhoon Freud loves this type of thing and will break it down psychologically

IDK? My gut tells me, "It's not coming". I think all this fantasy ends by 18z tomorrow, or 0z Saturday. Not a Met or forecaster, but I just got that feeling. Hopefully I'm wrong.

This is like a 2 week normal snow thread rollercoaster, condensed down into a day or two. Neat.

Love to see it, but can’t go all in until this holds and or continues to improve across multiple model suites for multiple cycles. By 12z tomorrow I’d say it could be real, I think someone posted that timeframe earlier and I agree.

18z

That’s the spirit!

The 18z EPS snow map had a solid uptick as well at 18z over 12z.

Funny, I'm better at doing that on a seasonal level, but struggle more with emotional regulation through the ebbs and flows of discrete threats in the medium range.

the AIFS-EPS being more amped gives me a bit more confidence that it’s legit. but yes, need to see what happens at 00z

But that’s my point . Before these past few winters . Most everyone would buy into this being real. You can tell other than a handful, most do not and are expecting 00z to go back to a light snowfall

I am fully prepared for this to come a lot closer than we all thought but still no cigar.

12z or 18z? .

Yup, it was mainly snow throughout SNE a couple of days ago, now even I'm getting a good bit of sleet.

Well, there has been a pattern have off-hour runs being more amped...I don't think this is that, but can't rule it out yet.

18z EPS had a significant jump west over its 12z run. That’s a few hundred miles in one run. We still need a little more to get into GFS territory, but you rarely see the EPS jump this much so close to game time.

And the bust was a rug pull within 24 hours. Horrendous.

The other thing that's probably being over looked is tomorrow nights sytsem has ticked a bit north the past few runs that lifts out sooner to give monday some room, Subtle but a factor.

Some of the most anticipated 0z runs in recent memory. Huge to see if this is a trend that continues or windshield wiper

18z WEATHERNEXT AI

They are a a north of Philly thing. We are losing if we depend on that shit.

It doesn't happen with every storm. But we've definitely had them plenty of times before.