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I feel bad for the mid Atlantic ski resorts. It's becoming one of those years. I guess i better go ahead and head to the Adirondacks in a couple weeks. No winter in sight here.

I’m going to wait until Tuesday/Wednesday to make up my mind. I love snow in my backyard but if McDowell is fringe at best… I might just book a cabin in Banner Elk and have some fun.

I agree "it doesn't want to snow here". It's one of those years. We had a nice snow pack by Eagles Mere PA but now with the warmth and rain. It's pretty much all gone. They have some snow showers and mix precipitation in the forecast for next week.

That was the most accurate 168 hr Euro control run of all time. https://www.weather.gov/okx/Blizzard_Jan42018

Gefs continues to improve

Gefs continues to improve

Posting of fantasy storm thats so far out. Current systems being tracked can't make it within 3 days. The current system wasn't model to hit the area around the 16th and seems to be holding. Which is good for me as I'm driving to the farm by Eagles Mere PA.

06z GFS a bit odd. Fcst 15z Jan 16, it shows a nicely tucked back deep sfc low near ACK, yet the heavy snow area is surprisingly limited to the NW. 500 low is significantly stronger and still closed off one contour as it passes just S of the region.

yea AIENS as well, after we get this first turd out of the way, 6Z GFS was pretty sweet in clown range

Overnight models showing a pretty reasonable "fail mode" in the fast flow we're in... 1. All of the PVA escapes east of the low and 2. The trough struggles to turn negative and fully consolidate due to the kicker system. In the end, it just turns into a paltry ULL passage with light snows. Even if a coastal low does pop, it's so far removed from any moisture. That's not to say the current OP runs are horrible, if the "floor" is a light 2-3" event with jacks to 6, that's fine. But some of the bigger solutions will only pan out if we can get this more consolidated.

Not sure what to make of this, except it doesn’t want to snow here on this run

What was that lol. Some weird runs overnight.

WB 6Z GFS is moving North as well....

EPS has a nice signal for this storm later this week. Way better than 12z.

I remember from the past, that some of biggest storms followed absolutely beautiful days which were sometimes almost spring-like.

Forky for the win lol

The ICON at 6Z is also weaker, further north, no storm.

6z NAM at 84hr is much flatter than the 0z GFS at 90hr

Watch this... 20"+ Jan 11-12th, 2011 Feb 8-9th, 2013 That's it 16"+ Feb 5th, 2001 Mar 4-6th, 2001 Feb 16-17th, 2003 Feb 1-3rd, 2021 And the two above, that's it Isn't that wild the difference, Taunton is like the snow capital of big ones compared to here. And we probably average the same amount of snow in a season, or close to it.

He is just so much an uber snow weenie, probably the biggest one I have ever met, esp. in attitude and mood (up and down so much, depending on the pattern). I worked w/ him at WSI for a number of years, so I saw the entire gamut/range what it takes to be a snow weenie. We went back are forth on events so often. And even 10 years ago, he was still king of the number of posts on AmericanWx, and I used to say "where do you get the time???" And he would say, "a lot of the them on are other subforums like in sports" "Yea, right!, I would say!

My first thought is you might have a thing for CoastalWx

Euro finally shows a little love.

@LibertyBell You good buddy? Miss ya this winter. You always had some interesting thoughts and questions, hope you’re well!

I haven't followed the entire thread, so they may be content here already mentioned. This is a very complex forecast, and among the weirdest ones I can recall, or should I say challenging. This could be an odd duck event (CoastalWx immediately thinks of March 7-8, 2013)! It's not often you have two strong s/w troughs so close together in the East vying for "who wins!" And the eventual sensible wx outcome in terms of snowfall DCA-BOS may be something that is not apparent until it actually occurs, w/ some areas doing well and some areas not so well. CoastalWx will immediately go, "great, just another chance I get STIFFED for snow in Weymouth, just like I have been a lot this year!" In the broad pix across NAMR, it looks quite good. But as usual, it's all in the details. First, the good: 1) Mean trough position is solid in the E w/ axis good for a "CoastalWx Special." 2) Great amplified ridge western U.S. 3) A thing the earlier runs did not have is upstream ridging/blocking in the NATL. Now it does. It's not a strong block, but decent height anomalies are there. Downstream is just as important as upstream aloft! 4) 00z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET all show a quite strong closed 500 low well S either over the Carolinas or southern Mid-Atl. Something like that crossing the coast should result in decent sfc cyclogenesis. The UKMET makes the low go sharply negative, while the GFS/ECMWF keep it more neutral tilt. Now for the "problems": 1) The upstream kicker *right* behind it. Not good. And you can see on the 00z ECMWF 120 to 132, how strongly the kicker 500 trough deepens (120 and 132 hr ECMWF 500 attached). This messes w/ the lead 500 trough and starts to dampen it. This is not how KU snowstorms occur. 2) I don't like the moderately strong closed 500 low over central Quebec. It limits the s/w ridging ahead of the lead 500 trough. This should be over Hudson's Bay for the best weenie event. 3) The western U.S. ridge axis is a bit too far W for my liking, so the wavelengths broader than ideal. So you see, a truly complex forecast, much higher than usual for sensible wx specifics! Some musings/caveats: 1) Will the kicker trough try to "dumbbell" the lead trough and its sfc low more N? 2) The intense 500 low crossing the coast before it starts to dampen, how fast will the cyclogenesis be? How long will it stay tight/consolidated before elongation, if at all? 3) Just b/c 500 feature dampens, does not mean below that weakens much or at all. You can have a beast of a 850 and sfc low and not much more than a "dent" at 500 (Feb 1983 KU storm comes to mind). 4) Snowfall gaps or spotty. Look at 00z GFS, decent snow over the Mid-Atl, then a big gap PHL-NYC, and eastern New England does half-decent. GFS snowfall has the same idea and the UKMET to a lesser extent. Not the "smooth" snow event CoastalWx has been looking for (if Cape Cod gets crushed and Weymouth screwed - I can hear, "I'M DONE!!!" And so many on social media are acting like, "THIS IS IT, the BIG one!" just salivating over the 500 height anomalies colors (color table chosen make all the difference!), and saying something like, "something GOTTA happen w/ such wild anomalies like this! Big ridge in the W and intense trough in the East, good enough for me!" and just run w/ "end of days" hype. Well, we don't live at 500 mb, and just b/c the 500 looks great, does *not* mean the sfc is great. And they fail to see the finer details of the pattern I mentioned above that can totally ruin things.

I bet this is what has gone though CoastalWx's mind already!