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I completely agree. It was recently made operational (Feb. 2025) and its primary purpose (imo at the current moment) is to provide an efficient (few resources and fast to simulate), medium/long range ensemble... I consider it a less accurate version of the CFS, honestly. They're years, if not decades, away from making the AIFS comparable to any traditional NWP modeling system. I'm not even fully sold on that being a possibility either... I'll take it seriously when the AIFS outperforms the IFS at the surface and not 500-50mb Vendors will provide any modeling system to stand out, unfortunately... At this range, I'd primarily consider the ECMWF, GFS, CMC, ICON, and UKMET (with more emphasis on their ensembles). Maybe look at trends of the AIFS for S&Gs.

Tuesday morning could be interesting for the escarpment and immediate lee.

8 new 9 24 hrs nice recovery on the slopes

IMO the low placement favors Wisconsin shore more than Illinois. Between mke and Sheboygan in WI look money with those SE winds

From what I see on most guidance, it’ll increase QPF but will also reduce the ratios due to the warmer lake waters, so it’s almost a net zero. Not sure what will actually happen

What are the thoughts on lake enhancement? MKE is mentioning it will increase totals but LOT seems to disagree.

Probably backing down more towards reality. Still high-end event nonetheless.

I’m in Maine but I heard I-89 has had quite a few accidents on the high ground between Randolph and Berlin.

Has to do with placement/handling of heavier and more convective precip, not actual drying per-se.

Yea, I text him ...work been nuts. In Asia alot

Watch it be right. Lol. I hope this precip shield fills in south like hrrr shows later. Right now main waa band setting up pretty north in Iowa. Always nail biting watching these evolve.

I don't think it will be high end around our area (probably no widespread 12"+ totals that is, unless ratios surprise, which seems doubtful at this time). The metro region as a whole will likely see a general 6-10" overall (locally higher), though. Highest totals will likely be western areas, with the overall setup peaking west and slowly dampening out as it heads east.

I want frozen ground, But we don't always get what we want.

You may do it, sure enough. Thinking I might bottom out around 24-25.

I agree. Not an ideal time for it for me. But oh well.

0z NAM is doing NAM things… drying out quite a bit in some of the expected higher-end areas in eastern Iowa/western Illinois. DVN goes from over a foot down to 9” this run.

34.7 at 9pm and my coldest at midnight is 32 .

Climo is always a viable option forecast at 4-5 days. It may be right, but it may be wrong. It's too early on this one. I will say that I'd love to see this a hit along the lines of the Euro 12z because I'm a firm believer that the first threat event gives a strong hint at the winter's seasonal pattern.

Couple folks asked about Runaway / Luke. He's fine just busy.

Hope you're wrong. Don't want it.

Not a bad first guess, Ray. Kind of feels like a pretty decent 128 gradient if we get a blend of Euro/GFS. I feel like both of those solutions at 18z are pretty outlier-ish

Agree what do you think. LOT has reduced downtown Chicago amounts despite some recent model runs showing a good >9 inch dump. It’s like they are assuming the worst is going to happen so don’t get too excited in the city.

The last time before last year the Gulf Coast witnessed that type of snow event was 1899 and somewhat 1895. That tells you just how historic last year was!

26 already. Maybe we crack the teens for the first time this winter?

Haha, he did have a big miss last year Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk