All Activity

Finally drying out a bit

It’s gross in OC. Leaving a day early bc I can only spend so much money doing inside things

If this was winter Methuen would have 10-12 inches of snow while some areas would have 3-4 feet plus lol...with more on the way lol...

The JJA summer composite was not El Nino like, but August was.

how much more rain do we get tonight and tomorrow? anybody know?

Did well yesterday with ~0.45", but only a few hundredths today. No rain either morning.

How did the beach hold up?

Fall death band. Our personal fall blizzard of rain.

In case anybody thinks I'm being too much of doomer about having to wait at least three years if this nino doesn't deliver a big snow: With the assumption that the ninas double dip...it's either this year or 29-30 for the next chance:

1.85 Plenty of small branches and leaves but nothing of consequence. The raspberry patch is a tangled mess of flopped over plants. Even so, I managed to pull a half pound this morning.

I'll sell that 87º the 12z GFS had for us on Friday. GFS continues its warmista saga.

What are the models showing for later today and tonight ? I don’t have access currently .

Yeah, there’s an impressive, and annoying, amount of shredded leaves and twigs covered everything. Needed to use the blower on my windshield. Up to .53” with much less wind now and constant drizzle/mist.

CAA from the south….that ain’t something you see very often. That certainly was one for the record books Thanks for the info.

Man if only your 3rd wife had that.

Looking at El Niño seasons that at some point maxed out at +2.0C for a trimonthly in Nino 3.4 (using Eric Webb’s tables for pre-1950 and the latest version of NOAA RONI for 1950+), this is what followed in ASO as well as the subsequent fall/winter: 1877-8: ASO +0.1 followed by cold neutral 1888-9: ASO -1.1 followed by strong La Niña 1965-6: ASO 0.0 followed by cold neutral 1972-3: ASO -1.3 followed by strong La Niña 1982-3: ASO -0.6 followed by moderate La Niña 1991-2: ASO +0.1 followed by weak El Niño 1997-8: ASO -1.2 followed by strong La Niña 2015-6: ASO -0.9 followed by moderate La Niña Tally for these 8 strongest El Niños on record: 5 La Niña (3 strong, 2 moderate) (62.5%) 2 cold neutral (25%) 1 weak El Niño (12.5%) So, this suggests the best chance is clearly for La Niña although it also suggests to not dismiss the possibility of something else, mainly cold neutral, especially IF this were to peak later than model consensus has been suggesting (say, in Jan instead of Nov). Of the 3 of these that didn’t go to La Niña, 1877-8 peaked between NDJ and DJF while 1991-2 peaked in DJF. OTOH, 1965-6 peaked early (OND) and still didn’t go all the way to La Niña the following year as it stopped at cold neutral. Note that the 3 that were neutral in ASO never made it to La Niña. ____________________ Sources of data: 1. Webb’s tables (used for pre-1950): https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html 2. NOAA RONI (1950+): https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/

Just a matter of time…whether we live to see it is another story lol.

Can you imagine a storm like that today in our backyard? Unbelievable.

Came out for about 20 seconds in Queens. It got noticeably brighter for about 15 minutes but it's back to gloomy for now.

Wow, 57 inches in Pickens

Keep in mind that if you're more interested in winter weather, a snapshot of June's Enso is generally irrelevant.

There has been a little sunshine at Robert Moses.

Over 5.6” now

2.1” on the storm 7.2” on the month