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I was hoping the warm layer would have eased on overnight runs, but was just a dream. Sleety up here by mid afternoon Sunday.

I think I like 10-15” for your backyard, and I SHOULD be far enough n/w for 12-18” (wishful thinking?)

It’s doing what just about any SWFE does. If you want all snow from these you want to be on the I-90 corridor. This is a bigger SWFE than usual with better front end snow but it’s behaving typical for them.

After the epic storm drought we've had I think it would take us getting less than 7" for me to feel slightly jibbed. I do think now we end up in the 12"-14" range much more than 16"-18" range it won't affect my enjoyment Sent from my SM-X210 using Tapatalk

06z runs look good so far.

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Yep, much as I want 15” I just don’t see it around the city/coast. I-84 corridor is another story. I’m quite confident we’ll be mixing but hopefully most of it’s over by then. My thought is still 8-12” for NYC/LI/I-78 to 80. And honestly I consider 10” with some sleet pounded in to be a good win.

My point and click has added snow to Sunday night now Saturday night 3-5 Sunday 7-11 Sunday night 2-4

Yep agree.

noticed ALY has taken the map away from the watch page, and the regional map doesn't match other offices maps, odd

Got some sleep, @Weather Willbrings the heat daily

Has anyone done, or know how to do soundings for northwest NJ? I've seen a couple for NYC and Philly, but nothing for NW Jersey.

Happy Friday weenies

Love that GFS run for my yard. Latest ens means have low pressure too far offshore, for now. Probably need the trough more neutral/negative sooner or its going to be a scraper/offshore.

The NWS forecasts have sort of been a mess. Watch text not matching maps, maps changing quickly, etc. Seems like it's NBM gone awry.

I believe that was the storm we were redoing a bank in Fairfield, started about 9 and they called us into the shop around noon, took 3 hours to get to Rt 8 from Black Rock area, and then another 6 hours from there to Waterbury had to go all back roads, highway packed so no plows could clear, nightmare. fun tho...

There is still a big front end thump of snow before the mix to sleet, that’s locked in. Getting back to the NAM, Binghamton NWS is expecting a possible turn to sleet all the way up into Northeast PA in their new disco this morning: “Models continue their jog northward for our winter storm Sunday into Monday. No major changes at this time, with still a significant snowstorm expected for the area with a widespread 10"+ with locally higher amounts possibly over 20". The finer scale models will be coming into play over the next 24 hours. It should be noted that the NAM and CMCreg are showing strong SE flow at H850. The NAM is notorious for doing very well forecasting the warm layers aloft and this will be something to monitor as we get closer. This warm layer aloft may not cause mixing per say, but it may significantly change snow ratios Sunday night across NEPA and possibly into the Southern Tier and this would produce lower snow totals in these areas if it comes to fruition. Also, mixing is not noted in our forecast at this time, however, a future change could be warranted if this trend north continues any further and this would also hinder snowfall totals across the southern forecast area some.”

I would place the Arctic boundary near a Canadian, TX to OKC to south of Tulsa line. I may be off on the eastern side of that as the DP change isn't as dramatic over there. Daytime will help define it better.

Zzzzz

Don't mean to downplay the NWS (well... yes) but honestly I haven't seen them as relevant in years. Except sometimes for alerts, they're always a day late and a dollar short. Last weekend was a perfect example

Considering NWS has me in 18-24” “could get a foot” seems reasonable. I’d go 8-12 for my area no idea what NWS is smoking.

Big improvement on the 00z euro. Hope we see improvements all around today

Live, Laugh, Toaster Bath. .

Looking at the euro runs for 18z and 0z I’m thinking DC and surrounding areas get the floor, Baltimore and surrounding areas get the ceiling. So I think your area could get more than a foot.

Warnings coming with the new AM AFD based on the AFD from 1am. Going with front bump SN to sleet . 1-3” sleet to FR. Ready to track the realtime surface features. .