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https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/02/1166956 Definitely a bad situation in Toamasina, this sounds like Acapulco after Otis.

Icon shifted north

On this day in 1960, 6 to 20 inches of snow fell across the area. It kicked off the most incredible run of snow ever seen in Tennessee/Kentucky/SWVa/Western NC. It would continue for over a month. On February the 18th/19th 1960, the Plateau and SE Kentucky got another 10-18 inches. The Mid-State, who had received 6-10 on February 13th, got another 6-10 on the 18th. Far eastern areas missed out on that one mostly, but March was going to hit and hit hard.

I go away for 7 hours w/o internet access and all hell breaks loose, lol. It would be amazing if the AIFS ends up being right or close to it despite being on an island, although the Euro, GFS and now ICON are at least moving in that direction - I'd be ecstatic with 1-2" given the low expectations. NWS Philly wasn't buying the AIFS in its latest AFD... KEY MESSAGE 2...Low pressure moves through the Mid-Atlantic Sunday night through Monday, bringing some rain and snow to the area. Low pressure will track along the Gulf Coast states this weekend, emerging over the Southeast by Sunday evening. A warm front will extend out from this low, and overrunning precip will develop from south to north Sunday afternoon. The heaviest precipitation will impact the area Sunday night, tapering off Monday morning. The big question is going to be how far north the precipitation gets. 12Z/13 NAM pretty much has precipitation confined to Delmarva, while the 12Z/13 GFS is a bit farther north with heavier QPF in Delmarva, and precipitation as far north as into the Lehigh Valley. The 12Z/CMC is similar to the NAM in that it keeps the system south. In terms of p- type, generally looking at rain in Delmarva and extreme southern New Jersey, and snow along and north of the I-95 corridor. 12Z/ECMWF is similar to the GFS, and the 12Z ECMWF-AI remains an outlier producing Warning level snowfall across the region. Since it is an extreme outlier, will not factor the ECMWF-AI in the forecast. With precipitation amounts heavier in the southern portions of the area, generally expecting less than an inch of snow where snow falls, mostly Sunday night into Monday morning.

Around the 20th on the AI ENS- Miller B-ish like the GEFS. Its all about the NA. The signal for the 24th is weaker, but there. Expected given how far out that window is. We got some chances before March, and probably beyond- The key features are a WPO ridge and a favorable NA.

A dusting possible from a weak shortwave passing through overnight 3 to 5 am. Carry on.

I would not be surprised if out of Knoxville’s 10 biggest snowstorms, 3/4 of those had temperatures in the 60s or 70s within a week before the storm. I bet a lot of our biggest snows in or around Knoxville had a above average temperatures for the season .

I know its the icon but you can see the slow steps towards the Euro camp

wasn't that cold spell that the "freezer bowl" was played in, in Cincinnati? I remember that winter being really cold, but don't remember a lot of snow until April vacation from school when we got a good 12-18"...

18z icon looks close to its 6z run so far

This site is now offering WeatherNext 2 for free. It's not totally functional yet (you can only get MSLP, 6 hour precip, and 2m temps) but still worth keeping an eye on: https://aguacerowx.com/app

There is a bit of a signal on the AIFS ENS. Mostly north but still way out there obviously.

Trying to remember the last time we had such prolonged snow cover. My best guess would be 2013-14.

https://x.com/i/status/2022373616709472738

SREF trended north lol

I thought it was 19. Either way its a hell of a streak. The open fields around me are thinning with some bare spots, but here in the woods still 90% or so with the sunny side out that back showing a few bare spots.

because i have a gas station on the corner and can get fresh gas easy.....and i hate to leave gas laying around in cans for weeks on end. also have an electric toro that rips through snow easily; it did so in the last storm. so i'm good, though the tire on my big machine needs replacing. i don't know how the bitter cold affects gas sitting outside in cans, but it probably isn't good.

If it's not too late, switch it to Irish Whiskey

A very good discussion, IMO. It describes what appears to be a reasonable worst-case scenario, although it should be noted that 4 EPS members now show 6" or more. It touches on the lack of phasing, which is a consistent theme given the wide separation of energy and front-running northern piece.

Is he saying winter is basically over after 28th with major heat wave likely after we get through phase 3 and possible snow from 20th - 28th?

Lol. Damn autocorrect. I've written snow so many times, it apparently just figures any word starting with the letter "s" is snow. Should have been stuff.

Gift cards and scotch are in the mail for the three shadow mods.

When was the last time we had 100% snow cover for 18 straight days?

You're talking about the year the Superbowl was in the Meadowlands? Starting game time temp was 48° and 8 hours later, while some were still returning home in the early am, the snow began and the city ended up with over 8 inches. If the snow started 6-8 hours earlier it would have been the most memorable Super bowl for weather of all time.

My town, Two Harbors.