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  2. As @high risk indicated I am watching dewpoints like a hawk. The HRRR really mixes things out which it is prone to do - but even some models that keep things moist don't produce much today. We'll see - but I still think somebody is in for decent storms.
  3. It seems like everything is expected to be permanent anymore(droughts,floods,etc)until they aren't.
  4. Rumor is that we are perhaps getting a bump to ENH next outlook. Guess we’ll see.
  5. We're def getting widespread rain and at least embedded thunderstorms. Just a matter of whether there will be any embedded strong/severe storms, and if so, is it rather localized or more scattered?
  6. If we get a bit more clearing then I’m feeling it today. Last week I got back to back days of legit severe storms. One of which was stronger than anything in the past couple years. Something to remember from both days is some CAMs were anemic the day of, so I’m not too worried about them. Additionally, both days last week produced that in spite of no shear.
  7. Mesoanalysis showing strong CAPE tongue building into the areas east of Frederick or so.
  8. I thought for sure last night that cell coming from chapel hill would get western wake but alas nothing! One bright side with the drought is that I don’t think I’ve had to kill a mosquito yet this year. From that perspective it’s been really awesome
  9. Trash night, let’s see what happens. 87F/DP 64F
  10. It’s pretty sultry out there. I’d be shocked if storms hold off too long.
  11. For those still watching, the last two Euro runs do something very weird with our area of interest. It tries to organize it well inland and treks it across the south. Can't say I've seen that before lol. Still a chance for some marginal development later in the week as a front tries to get involved in the NW Gulf.
  12. Despite a few camera malfunctions, I got some video of the Union Pacific Big Boy in Nesquehoning this morning. When I get them edited and uploaded to YouTube, I'll share them here.
  13. Most stuff is very meh for most of CT. The way things have gone probably the way to think . Even for more than a tenth or two
  14. WB 14Z HRRR: not much going on during the day. Thunderstorms hit around sunset east of the mountains.
  15. Yeah. Hope it is not just some gusty fast moving showers. I have a feeling it will be more along those lines with not much in the way of significant rainfall totals.
  16. This is an issue with MADIS. The 83 mph gust is from a sonic anemometer on top of the Bay Bridge. That is the first report. The second 83 mph report in Parole is false, it’s due to a bug that duplicates the Bay Bridge sensor at SHA headquarters in Parole. The lay/lon is wrong in MADIS. The 75 mph gust is from a buoy at the mouth of the Severn.
  17. Saw the announcement when it happened. Congrats! Will push some local friends y'all way. How is the network paid for? State funding?
  18. Today
  19. I'd take the high res depictions in a heartbeat. 3k and HRRR looked juicy overnight.
  20. I hope you're right. It would be a shame if a good setup gets messed up by very late timing. Hopefully models like HRRR and Nam3km are wrong about the timing being that late. Still a good chance we'd see some heavy rain if it does happen that late though. We really need the rain so I'm keeping my fingers crossed.
  21. I wonder how much elevated CAPE we can get into the region tonight. There will be some sfc CAPE but there also will be an inversion probably so we probably or may not tap into the sfc instability. The NAM tends to overdo elevated CAPE but if it were to be right...it will be a very loud night, at least across CT, RI, and SE MA.
  22. Dews have crashed to the low 40s. Love this dry summer air.
  23. Similar to every other severe event this spring the greatest threat is the wind
  24. Area on 6/13….8.66 million sq km Heres how other years faired on the same date (I.e, 2012 had 420k less area than this year on the same date) 2012: -420k 2025: -130k 2019: -60k 2016: -50k 2007: +150k 2020: +190k 2011: +230k 2010: +240k 2023: +250k 2022: +280k 2021: +300k 2017: +310k Still a lot of time left in the critical month of June. We’re lagging 2012 decently but it’s definitely possible to catch up. On the flip side, if we continue to lose ground to 2012 over the next couple weeks, then we can rule out a new record this year. Most of the cake gets baked in May and June in the arctic sea ice workd
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