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What’s that old saying again? Dont trust 6z or 18z runs because they don’t use fresh data? I know there was something in the weenie handbook regarding that. Forgot the chapter and page.

Back in the game for Sunday. GFS and UK bring snow back to Richmond. More for HR. euro still needs work

Well after the fake -NAO tease for early Jan .. We all said Jan 15th period was possible but unlikely, the first real threats would show up Jan-18 on beyond .. It's still the case even though Jan 18 is still very low probs and next week looks boring for now..

6z euro says congratulations coastal Carolina’s and gives them 3-6”.

Location is also extremely important for where these anomalies exist. https://atlas.niu.edu/gwo/ While the tropics are exerting more of a El Nino flair which may very well be enhancing some of these cold dumps horse to mid latitudes have not yet caught up.

We still have a lot of work to do with this storm. I think as we move forward every storm track and intensity will be dependent on the other.

Insert kicking the can picture

That’s almost there another 100 nw and more expansive snow shield we are in business. I don’t think we will know until the baroclinic zone sets up as the trough burrows into the east and the cold front clears the east coast.

Totally. We need to see lots more before there's really any interest

Im not a fan of cherry picking charts. I remember rather well that CDAS 3 years ago during the Nino event was showing SSTs in the moderate to low end strong sector (roughly 1.3-1.5C above average) when almost every other (OISST, ERSST, CRW, etc.) was showing the waters near upper end strong. Now we use it to show La Nina? Come on with that. Honestly if you are going to show these types of charts in either picture stick to one source.

Could be a situation where something big shows up on models, then gets iffy, then slowly comes back. Happens a lot.

Lastly all ensembles are ideal post that overrunning threat next weekend..

NW trend is our friend…. NW trend is our friend… NW trend is our friend. .

Low of 39. Perhaps some of us get to wake up to a whitened yard tomorrow morning and then hoping for some vibrant tracking come the last week of January. Onward.

Large precip signal still on ensembles for next weekend as Scott said.. .Just watching ensembles for now, hopefully we get more hits showing up on ops as we get closer.. This period still could be snow/rain/ice for New England ..

Angular Atmospheric Momentum (AAM) is a good tool for determining how well coupled the atmosphere is with ENSO. AAM measures how fast the atmosphere is spinning around the Earth, which is mainly a function of the strength and latitude of the westerly winds. El Niño is characterized by stronger westerly winds. AAM+ indictates stronger westerly winds. La Niña is characterized by weaker westerly winds/easterly winds. AAM- indicates weaker westerly winds/more easterly winds. Despite social media chatter that the atmosphere is not coupled with the ongoing La Niña event, the AAM showed otherwise. That the forecast AAM has also shifted negative shows that claims that La Niña is on its death bed, so to speak, are premature. La Niña is fading in discontinuous fashion and subsurface warming is starting to occur. But La Niña is not collapsing, much less essentially finished. On its current trajectory, neutral-cool conditions could develop toward the end of this month or next month.

Oof... The waiting game is rough. Hopefully it will yield some good stuff as we move past next week and into the following weekend.

WOW. Max Velocity. Indeed.

I should just go back to using the NCAR model site that was the first one I ever came across, still looks like it did in 2006 and the GFS only goes out to 192 hours.

Depressing Euro run, if looking for snow. Rgem keeps it's decent snowfall set up. The Euro AI had some hope. The 06z gfs wasn't great for most of the forum. It's crazy to me that we see the looks at 500 that have been popping up and we are struggling to find modeled snow events. These looks would be productive throughout most of our climate history.

Yup, NOT with GFS leading the way.. Wait til the real models show a hit .. EPS is about a 5-15% probability of plowable for Eastern New England, pretty low odds but still day 5 so time to trend.

Sunday has legs! Let's keep the trends going today yall!

I’m not buying. We don’t get fooled again