All Activity

Ya but that stupid Bahama low is going to mess.things up again

He’s another silly fool alarmist whose ideas are going by the wayside…but let’s get back on topic with winter weather…which there is plenty of.

It is look better this run, not sure if it would be enough to matter for us.

NAM look okay for north ga?

A few notes: ECMWF sub seasonal ensembles via ecmwf.int. imo tend to be too dry here in the northeast and deny the shorter range global ensemble expectations. Be alert for that. Huge error this past weekend - see attached ecmwf.int prediction the 19th, and you know what happened! Also fwiw: via ECMWF.int. Week 3-4, 2m temp departures, I suspect are related to snow cover... see the daily prediction of colder than normal-here ne USA and OH Valley, and where the snow depth is this morning (and the southern boundary likely to be close to that 16 days - Valentines Day) from now. GFS MOS (MEX. I have no access ecmwf mos. GFS MOS is missing too warm on nighttime lows NYC CP... this I think will be a factor on getting much colder than morning MEX MINS this weekend as the BL wind tends to go northernly---easier access CP. Still try for 2-3F above zero.

@BornAgain13 you would def approve of the 12Z NAM for our areas. the elongation/vort digging on the backside is helping up here to enhance precip. Coastal gets going at 51 and is tucked in a little more. Nice ribbon of snow breaking out for RDU folks.

Where I’m situated on the most southern tip of the province we generally get shafted with rain and such. So far it has been a perfect setup for us since the pattern flip a week ago, the Sunday storm plus 4-5 inches of ocean effect squalls has really added up. For now I’m in about the best position possible for this system, we shall see.

I don't think any model even shows this!! Maybe he's using the Cras model

StabbyStab busy with antifa duties. Can't carry phone during insurrections.

My father always tells me that in the winter where he was growing up near Waterford, Connecticut, once it snowed the roads stayed snow covered for the rest of the winter. How is that possible? I know that the climate has gotten a lot warmer since the 60s but even still there must have been at least a few milder days that melted all the snow off the roads? The only other possibility that I can think of is did they not salt the roadways back in the 60s and that's why they stayed covered? That just doesn't seem possible though. How could people have driven rear wheel drive with snow covered roads?

Yea, this might be kind of funny.

If you're a RDU IMBY, typically in these scenarios, central NC does very well if the UL vort goes negative. This pours in the Atlantic moisture, that's why all the runs over the past few days which showed the highest totals around RDU also featured the system going negative over Tennessee. This is what happened in Jan 2000. The conjecture around the dry slot is just twitter BS imo until we know how this vort will behave. There are still some quirks to go.

And it looks much better than 0z .

is it really or is that poppycock?

Maybe I’m wrong but he’s not showing a “dry slot” over central Nc. At least as extreme as some. Even Allan, he’s got the big numbers but I disclaimer in C zone that it could happen. As said prior, he sees at least 2-3 (if there’s a slot) in Raleigh per an exchange with someone on x.

NAM looked decent at 48h..but extrapolating this model past that is asking for trouble.

I want to call out weird behavior from accuweather. they virtually ignored the storm last week until it was right on our doorstep and then they went with the under in terms of accumulation. This week they are all over this storm and bullish. Immediately put out 1 to 3 inches several days out and with model uncertainty. Just odd

After last week’s public outrage that was totally misdirected towards him, I can’t blame him at all. He could come out and give you his boom scenario, but would that really benefit him? If he forecasts 2-5” and you get 10”, nobody is going to scream. Now if he says 10” and you get 9”, people will bring pitchforks.

12z NAM starts the show at 1600 tomorrow in Knox. Most other models start around 1900 FWIW.

The vort at 45 is noticeably better and digging quite a bit more, with heights rising in New England. This is how someone away from the coastal influence scores a major coup. You can see precip expanding into the foothills, s va and from about Greensboro north.

The Mount Holly discussion is dated 2 days earlier than the NYC discussion...

NAM digging that vort a bit more west lolololol, couldn’t help myself

Hmmm…I wonder why?

StabbyStab is on antifa assignment in Minneapolis.

Because of the 10 day thaw January will be below but not close to one of the coldest overall. Impressive stretch we're in now of course