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Nice write-up. We track. Best pattern we've had in years. Let's cash in on one.

Only hazards cold ??

We we are close enough for snowfall maps to be useful given the strong signal for a storm across guidance.

Cool graphic of the 12z Euro AI ensembles from Tomer. Basically, our region (focused over @Bob Chill, but covering most of us) has lower dispersion on snow totals relative to central PA up to NYC and BOS and the deep south.

Euro moved towards way less upper air warmth on the 12z run in North GA. This temp cross section is at Blairsville, GA. Notice how much more of the column is isothermal most of the time than in the 6z run. The 6z run of course cuts off with the storm in progress but still noticeable difference nonetheless. If things can trend a bit more that direction as we move forward, I’d expect more snow/sleet vs ZR to start showing up over N GA and the Upstate. Of course track/intensity would need to cooperate, but that’s a given.

The NAM would've been one hell of a run

never keep a lady waiting. its ok for her to keep you waiting, but don't do it to her. it will never ever be forgotten, and when she tells her friends about you, that's the story they're going to hear, and so will the new boyfriend....

Below is the number of winter events or individual measurable snow/sleet events by season here in East Nantmeal Twp. with records back to 2003. I have also included seasonal snowfall totals. We have already had 10 winter events this season. The most was back in 2014-15 with 21 events with the least in 2019-20 with just 5 winter events.

Below is the number of winter events or individual measurable snow/sleet events by season here in East Nantmeal Twp. with records back to 2003. I have also included seasonal snowfall totals. We have already had 10 winter events this season. The most was back in 2014-15 with 21 events with the least in 2019-20 with just 5 winter events.

18z nam not looking too bad at the end of it's run with the Baja low.

Is anyone able to tell the timing of this yet? Thanks.

If this threat doesn't materialize in some capacity the letdown will be more excruciating than last February.

30 day mean on Weeklies

Cash out!! I’ll take it!! .

There's a thread for this weekend everyone

Sure looks it. They've told me they yse the NBM.

The Canadian Parallel Weather Model refers to Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) running a test (parallel) version of a weather model alongside its operational model to evaluate upgrades before full deployment.

What are Northern Mid-Atlantic and New England in the dark blue for ? its not clear if its the cold or snow or both

I knew MRX was riding heavy with the GFS as my area has less snow forecast and lower chances than others south of me. No idea which scenario shows me with nothing though, other than this graphic they just released. It's especially funny since WPC literally just released the update that they are essentially ignoring the GFS.

Latest AFD from Mount Holly on the upcoming potential event- KEY MESSAGE 3...There is signal for an impactful winter storm to impact portions of the area this weekend, however quite a bit of uncertainty remains. Signals of the upper level pattern by late week and the weekend becomes quite active between the northern and southern stream jets. The key elements embedded in these features are currently located over the Arctic and the Pacific Ocean, so it`ll likely take a few more days for guidance to become better aligned. In the meantime, almost all available guidance depicts an area of low pressure developing over the Southern Plains on Friday before tracking eastward into the Deep South on Saturday. Beyond Saturday, its uncertain where the track of the low may go. The main player here is the Arctic high to the north and how strong the high becomes. Some guidance depicts a very strong high near 1044mb, which results in a suppressed storm track keeping any significant precipitation to the south. Whereas, a weaker high would result in a more northerly storm track and potentially bringing significant accumulation to the area. Considering that the system is 5-6 days out, the signal for a winter storm to impact at least portions of the area do appear to be stronger than usual. In fact, snow probabilities of the NBM show a 40-60% chance of 2+ inches of snow and a 20-40% chance of 6+ inches of snow for areas south of Philadelphia. Probabilities do lessen further north. Even the Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI-P), depicts a 40- 60% chance of moderate level winter storm impacts to the south of Philadelphia. Obviously a lot can change between now and the weekend, but users should keep a close eye on the forecast over the coming days.

Weeklies are incredible in the east through February 20.

Surprised nobody posted the zoomed in version of the AIFS 360 hour map. It's insane and I can't imagine it verifying, but it surely shows the potential of the pattern. Also, I know this is the NYC forum, but I was wondering if anyone had access to the AIFS ZR maps for the southern US at least for the 1/25 storm, which is looking pretty "real" right now. The CMC and Euro are bad enough and if they verify, the ice may be the biggest story with this storm (and if the AIFS is right, it'll likely be close to the CMC ice map as they're close on snowfall for 1/25), but given how good the AIFS has been would love to see that map. TIA.

I feel jaded having lived through the Jan/Feb 2015 "Winter Blitz" up in Boston. Two 20-inchers + two 15-inchers in just 20 days.

I was just poking around the Euro and had to go all the way down to Rocky Mount/Raleigh before a warm nose at 725mb showed up. It is amazing how cold these runs are.