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MUCH warmer this morning at 14.7 degrees vs the 1.8 yesterday. Mainly because we clouded over after dark last night (along with some flurries) and the wind. Had a 41 mph gust. The 1.8 NOT a record, that still stands from 1987 at -4. Currently 22.0/8.2 with W 5 gusting to 12 mph under partly cloudy skies. WC 16 to 10 degrees.

This euro run is going to be drier

yep

that bad?

NEW YORK... 1130 AM EST FRI FEB 26 1999 THIS IS THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT. MONTAUK SUFFOLK 13.5 730 AM EAST HAMPTON SUFFOLK 10.0 700 AM SHINECOCK SUFFOLK 8.5 730 AM BRIDGEHAMPTON SUFFOLK 8.5 700 AM ORIENT POINT SUFFOLK 8.0 700 AM NWS OFFICE BROOKHAVEN SUFFOLK 6.4 700 AM PATCHOGUE SUFFOLK 5.9 700 AM RIDGE SUFFOLK 5.0 730 AM MOUNT SINAI SUFFOLK 4.7 700 AM FARMINGVILLE SUFFOLK 4.6 800 AM SOUTH SETAUKET SUFFOLK 4.5 800 AM RONKONKOMA SUFFOLK 4.0 700 AM ISLIP SUFFOLK 3.0 700 AM CENTERPORT SUFFOLK 2.8 800 AM FARMINGDALE NASSAU 2.0 700 AM OCEANSIDE NASSAU 1.8 600 AM NORTH MASSAPEQUA NASSAU 1.5 700 AM LA GUARDIA AP QUEENS 2.0 700 AM KENNEDY AP QUEENS 1.0 700 AM GRAVES END BROOKLYN KINGS 1.2 800 AM CENTRAL PARK NEW YORK 1.5 700 AM WHITE PLAINS WESTCHESTER 1.3 700 AM

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In order to model good pbp manners for all the new and infrequent posters

ahh I got fooled with the ai lol

I mean look-we have 10+ inches of hardened snow on the ground and huge piles in every parking lot that will last into March, and bays/rivers all freezing over. If this one misses there will be another. It’s as deep winter here as you could ever ask for.

You're much better looking, I would have been extremely insulted.

I think MRX is too high on Forecasted Temps Saturday and Sunday. They're adjusting to Climatology looks like as Guidance looks colder.

If we all knew what the models were going to do ahead of time, none of us would be here

At initialization and f30 its the slightest bit west, but nowhere near enough to get us in striking distance

Man that would feel worse somehow...to miss out on a Miller A and have to settle for pity flakes from an unreliable Miller B? Ehhhh...

Euro all a mess lol goes from hr 45 to hr 252

I just had to flag down my mail person since they can't reach our box because of how they plowed around my mailbox.

How different is it from 06z? I feel like it hasn’t been firmly in the camp with GFS and CMC. It’s made steps towards those solutions, but is still barely on the outside looking in.

This is all covered in the weenie handbook chapter 12 historic cold periods are dry and dull with the proverbial lull, old timers will say "it's too cold to snow"

Compact? I think it’s just the opposite . It’s a winter hurricane in size and scope. So think of it in terms of a growing and expanding extra tropical storm but in winter with far reaching effects

4 years ago tomorrow was the 2nd greatest blizzard of my life. 9 hrs of less than an 1/8 th mile visibility drifting 8 to 10 feet. Death band for hours

Euro AIFS again has that Miller B around f200 that gives us an inch or two

There is a chance for this to be an epic winter but we are going to have to start picking it up in the snow department to get there. Most are probably around or slightly ahead of climo to date. Throw in the serious cold for nearly the entire winter and this could really rival our best winters over several decades IF we can get clobbered once or twice.

rolling in now

The Euro is probably not going to be very good for areas along and west of 75. Hopefully it's wrong, but it's usually only wrong when it shows significant snow.