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CIPS is also fairly supportive of some sort of threat at the end of the week. CIPS extended range remains supportive for severe as well way out into the long range.

Nino 3.4 warmed only 0.2 in today’s release for last week averaged out vs the prior week from 0.5 to 0.7 vs my guess based on daily OISST levels/changes of it warming 0.3 (from 0.5 to 0.8). But this difference could possibly be mainly due to rounding. For example, perhaps the prior week was, say, +0.46 vs last week being, say, +0.74 or whatever. It has gotten more E based the last 5 weeks but (as per what I recently posted) the Euro doesn’t have it getting more E based overall from this point forward and thus keeps it from getting anywhere near as E based as 1997-8: 1+2 3 3.4 4 29APR2026 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 06MAY2026 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.5 13MAY2026 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.6 20MAY2026 1.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 27MAY2026 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.7 03JUN2026 2.1 1.0 0.7 0.7

CSU MLP likes both Thursday and Friday

We didn’t have anything like that but it peaked about 3:00 at my house too. Sat between 95-96 from 1-4 with the 97 peak. Miserable

10 out of 10 so far this month! I wish it could be like this till October.

Then there is next Monday Tuesday on models. Nice summer stretch enroute first. For Hubbardston Ma

Not to be 'that' conspiracist person, but the more the sports betting has increased, the more those types of calls are seeming to happen.

Nice start today with a breeze and 72. Looking forward to low/mid 80s for a couple of days before the big heat is back. Looking at possibly 100 on Thursday

Anyone ever winder why it seems some areas get more thunderstorms then others? For my immediate area it's Glen Burnie that is the Hotspot for storms. I feel like from Ellicott City down to Glen Burnie is thunderstorm ally. My area was on a hot hand last July. Every chance for storms seemed to deliver. Some years I can't buy a storm. They all hit Glen Burnie.

Friday maybe? From Day 4-8 SPC OTLK ..Day 5/Friday... A number of the 00z models progress a lower-latitude short-wave trough through the upper OH Valley and lower Great Lakes, which is a departure from previous model runs. That scenario would increase severe-weather potential across those areas into New England, and perhaps the Mid-Atlantic, given the potential for a moderately unstable air mass across the pre-frontal warm sector. Should subsequent model runs remain consistent with this recent trend, an unconditional 15% probability contour may be needed in the next forecast update. Elsewhere, Isolated severe storms appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains.

Thanks. I realize that the RDU sensor is often a hot spot under sunshine in the warm season per past discussions I’ve read here and elsewhere. Do you know if your house had temps that jumped around ~6 F within just a few minutes of 3 PM? That seems very high with little change in sky condition (mostly sunny as opposed to large amounts of cloud cover suddenly moving in or out) and no big wind direction shift!

33° at Estcourt Station. Some mid 30s in N NH and W ME too.

Replaced my rain gauge yesterday. Right on cue.

48 at the house this morning. That’s it for a while

Today should be pretty nice

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Looks like some cooler and hopefully wetter weather is on the way for next week following more unusual warmth this week for a developing El Niño. A ridge out West and a trough near the Great Lakes is a closer match to El Niño June expectations. It’s forecast to occur right as this event is setting records for the warmest Nino 3.4 SST on record for early June.

We hit 97.2 at my house so not super far fetched but highest in the state for sure

Min 47.7° Hopefully some rain midweek

While doing some yard clean up yesterday from the storm my grandson saw me raking and said “Fall!”, not yet buddy. So glad I cleaned up in the morning because yesterday afternoons winds blew down the down stuff that was still hung up in the trees…oh well, it doesn’t look as bad it as did.

November 2026 hasn’t occurred yet. So this past November was in 2025. Part of the reason this El Niño is becoming record breaking so early on is due to the accumulation of record SST warmth in the WPAC. The WWBs beginning in November 2025 started the kelvin waves and warm push eastward. These are record breaking WWBs that we haven’t seen since the late 1990s. So a record WPAC warm pool initiation plus record WWBs equal a record El Niño. Also note how Nino 1+2 never fully cooled off after the last super El Niño in 2023-2024. So it’s no surprise that this event is becoming so strong given the much warmer background state that it’s originating in. Past climate reconstructions along with modeling support the hypothesis that it’s normal for El Niños to become more frequent and stronger as the world warms. So the 2020s will be the first decade with super El Niños over +2.0° occurring only 3 years apart. Plus recent studies show that at some point in the future we can warm enough to enter a sustained El Niño climate. But we really don’t know the global temperature threshold at which this could theoretically occur. Still uncertain if this could even occur in a modern warmer climate or the stronger and more frequent El Niño mode continues to dominate over some La Niña intervals in between. https://apnews.com/article/4379af505f994766a4fa332e9c7a923a https://www.colorado.edu/today/2024/09/25/1-2-el-nino-events-could-be-extreme-mid-century https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.354.6317.1210 https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/10/631/2019/

He just looks at colors

What an amazing morning! Crisp and refreshing and the pollen has been (probably temporarily) washed away.

The most studied?