All Activity

Rain overnight was a bit of a disappointment, only managing .12". Would be nice to receive at least another .5". Still plenty of opportunity and it'll be on the warm side this week. Real heat stays south of here.

Can you come throw some into the river? It’s looking sad.

Yeah even behind any front it looks hot so could last through next Monday

My TWN point for tomorrow still has 95F/36C as the hottest day, however what stood out on this cycle was for this week there are 5 days of chance of strong storms - maybe among the highest number generated here but def a dream pattern. The other is my low doesn't drop below 19C for the next 7 days with 5 being above 20C!

Yes I agree. Historically our big heat waves occur when you have strong high pressure situated from Kentucky to Bermuda.

The UKMET, which did very well last year, is about the same as the prior (May) run with dip to ~-0.9 vs -1.0 in May. Add ~-0.5 for best guess at RONI conversion and you get -1.4/high end moderate. It has 1+2 slightly less cool, 3 about the same, and 4 the least cool with ~-0.2. I’d label this prog neither Modoki nor east based but rather in-between for autumn at least.

I haul water at 8,000 gallons per trip. Does that count?

1.57” total precipitation last 24hrs.

Chance remnant mvc over n mo perks up over the area later?

MHT had 101 in June 95 and 104 in Jul 95, but for whatever reason that early 90s data pre-ASOS hasn’t made it into the threaded data yet.

Look at the advertised position of the surface high in the western Atlantic and the low/mid level flow and temps. The worst of the heat for the MA will be late week into the weekend.

It did, however, we were not going into a La Niña back then

Excessive heat watch is up

Records: Highs: EWR: 98 (1981) NYC: 97 (1891) LGA: 96 (1991) JFK: 92 (1962) Lows: EWR: 52 (1946) NYC: 52 (1927) LGA: 55 (1961) JFK: 55 (1965) Historical: 1806 - A total eclipse of the sun was viewed from southern California to Massachusetts. (David Ludlum) June 16, 1806: The great American total solar eclipse occurred from California to Massachusetts, nearly five minutes in duration. 1895: Heavy rain fell in portions of central Arkansas, damaging several roads and bridges. At Madding, east of Pine Bluff, 6.12 inches of rain fell in six hours. 1917 - The temperature soared to 124 degrees at Mecca climaxing the most destructive heat wave of record in California history. (David Ludlum) 1944 - A tornado in Sioux City, IA, traveled an odd course. It spun in one place for about twenty minutes, made a U-turn, traveled southeast for about three miles, then traveled south, east, north, and finally east again. (The Weather Channel) 1972: Agnes was first named by the National Hurricane Center on June 16, 1972: It would go on to make landfall between Panama City and Apalachicola, Florida, on the afternoon of June 19. Hurricane Agnes would later cause catastrophic flooding in the mid-Atlantic states, especially Pennsylvania. Agnes caused over 100 fatalities. 1987 - Temperatures soared above 100 degrees in the Upper Midwest, reaching 104 degrees at Lincoln, NE. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 96 mph at Valley City, ND, and baseball size hail near Red Oak, IA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - After a brief respite, hot weather returned to the Northern High Plains Region. Late night thunderstorms in Montana produced wind gusts to 70 mph at Polson and north of Lake Seeley. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Daytime thunderstorms produced severe weather from northern Florida to the Middle Atlantic Coast. The thunderstorms spawned eight tornadoes, and there were 138 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Thunderstorm winds gusting to 87 mph caused twenty million dollars damage at Columbia SC. Strong thunderstorm winds killed one person at McLeansville NC. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1992: A devastating tornado ravaged portions of southwest Minnesota. Commonly referred to as the Chandler-Lake Wilson tornado, this tornado destroyed more than 75 homes, with another 90 houses, 10 businesses, a church, and a school damaged. In addition, the tornado caused over $50 million in property damage, resulting in more than 40 injuries and one fatality. Based on a detailed damage assessment by the National Weather Service, it is estimated this F5 tornado packed winds over 260 mph as it tore through the residential area of Chandler, Minnesota. This was the only F5 tornado to occur in the United States in 1992. 2014: The Pilger tornado was the most intense of the family of tornadoes produced by the supercell. This tornado developed about 6 miles southwest of the town of Pilger and moved northeast, directly striking the city. Initially narrow and relatively weak, the tornado significantly intensified as it neared the Elkhorn River and moved into town. The tornado cut a path through town, destroying numerous homes and businesses. The tornado was responsible for 1 fatality in the town of Pilger and several injuries before moving northeast and weakening. During a weakening period, the tornado again intensified, producing additional violent damage 4 miles northeast of Pilger. Finally, the tornado narrowed, weakened, and turned east, wrapping around the developing Wakefield tornado before dissipating.

This prediction turned out to be wrong, as 2021 was a record breaking warm summer for most of the Western US.

We had 36F this AM. Long gone now, ha.

heavy rain shifts from FL west to TX next week - lookw like the C-GOM the following

Stay hydrated in the heat this week.

Midway through June (15th) depwith a >+5 next 7 days coming up EWR: +4 JFK: +3.9 PHL:+3.4 LGA: +2.4 NYC: +2.3 TTN: +2.1

Unless they're at the pool or beach it's a dead zone outside at those temperatures. Hell people don't even go to the beach when it's that hot because the sun bakes them.

70 / 49 and a truly lovely day shaping up. Upper 70s to near 80. Strong ridge builds in Mon with the start of the heatwave in the warmer spots, others get there Tue. Ridge now forecast to peak at 600DM just near NJ shore on Wed (6/19). Peak 850 MB >20C comes Thu (6/20) - Mon (6/24) with upper 90s or more and reords being challenged. One of the stronger ridges as bluewave pointed out in our area 2013 (July) , 2001 (August), 2011 (July). Looks like a trough swings a front through in the 6/25-26 timeframe before ridging builds back. Flow is pumping tremendous moisture into the GOM starting in TX then slowly moving east into the Mssspi valley. Looking warm to humid to close the month under higher heights.

If you want excessive heat, then you want to be on the north or northwest side of this high. That maximizes the warm air advection.

Tamarack greeting you off the gate with stories of smoke plumes rising to inversion heights when it’s -40?

Low of 55. Happy Father’s Day to all the dads out there. This one here is hittin’ the links later. Hopefully the light beer keeps me cool.