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We had to put the leaves in those brown recycling bags growing up and I remember after a rainy day like today, having the standing water on those bags ice up.

We’re heading in the right direction, though. Summer was canceled early, temps have been chilly, and it looks like the Gulf of Mexico is starting to wake up from a multi-year sabbatical.

WXW2 may actually get on the board with this storm @powderfreak. Maybe a half inch or so.

This is a very linear approach so tfwiw - but to help elucidate the concern in using 2013 as analog, let's look at the 2013 WPO, and compare it to recency. Below on the left is the 2013-2014 WPO ( provided by CPC), and on the right, 2024-present 2013 1 0.07 2024 3 0.97 2013 2 1.49 2024 4 0.73 2013 3 0.59 2024 5 -0.27 2013 4 -1.86 2024 6 -1.29 2013 5 -1.13 2024 7 -0.77 2013 6 -0.47 2024 8 1.06 2013 7 -0.88 2024 9 1.38 2013 8 -0.17 2024 10 0.91 2013 9 1.93 2024 11 -0.20 2013 10 -0.09 2024 12 -0.33 2013 11 -0.04 2025 1 1.02 2013 12 -2.01 2025 2 0.32 2014 1 0.54 2025 3 0.77 2014 2 -1.37 2025 4 -0.83 2014 3 -0.43 2025 5 -0.49 2014 4 -1.36 2025 6 1.27 2014 5 -0.85 2025 7 -0.58 2014 6 -0.30 2025 8 -0.31 2014 7 -1.63 2025 9 1.22 2014 8 -0.77 2014 9 -1.23 2014 10 -0.32 2014 11 0.13 2014 12 -0.13 graphically ... What sticks out is that the WPO was predominately negative in the 2013-2014 period, but has been predominately positive lately. That particular index is quite important as it loads the Pacific ... We can root it ultimately back to Asia for that matter. All that, and also feed-backs (constructive or destructive interference ) from the MJO frequency... which also has at least a say in the ENSO distribution... Quagmire and that ultimately giggidies or glorifies our winter tendencies over N/A. But, that is a big difference in that particularly circulation mode/manifold comparing back whence to now ... So it really - for me - adds to the uncertainty if not doubt.

Yeah, I believe it for the WPac. It's been in a counter-trend to the Atlantic. Probably reverses as aerosols get progressively cleaned up. ATL itself has some competing factors, namely lapse rate/stability issues and a tendency for the ITCZ to lurch northward with asymmetric hemispheric warming (a la Broecker et. al '17). That'll put more waves over the cooler/more stable Canary current for the MDR track. Then there's the potential issue of MJO and ENSO amplification (+ and -). To me it seems that more volatility is an easier call than a continuance of the upward ATL trend.

Happy Sandy Anniversary

Both NAMS are now wet for the entire area with a general 1-2 inches of rain

1.6" overnight with some thunder and lightning around 6 am.

Good point. On that note, my latest first flakes was 12/4/06 with latest measurable 1/19/07.

Not good.

Just in time for the sun to destabilize us some for the grand finale in a few hours Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Wouldn't doubt it. They seemed a little low. Actually everything they had on their precipitation amount map seemed a little low.

At kmdt the previous 25 years yearly average is 45", mostly due to our huge stretch of insane yearly totals in the 2010's. Before that the previous 25 years average was 41". Regardless we average about 6" in November/December so after tomorrow average YTD should be 35'-39". I'm at 34" for the year thanks to this beast. Lowest I saw in Cumberland was 27". Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Sun trying to break through. Looks like the next slug of rain will miss HBG proper so might winding down rain-wise here.

Doing good in my area thus far. Received .48" as of 8:00 a.m. Had some periods of heavier rain predawn hours. Winds gusty - estimated 20-25 mph in gusts.

I am not sure it will, due to the fact that the system, wind field will expand as it moves north, making it harder to get back to major status. Melissa's lowest pressure is 965mb at the moment.

If this is correct and it appears to be, this -IOD may be getting down to -2. Would be record breaking and have a very substantial impact on the global forcing

2.85" Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Yep I remember flurries in middle November.

2016 sequel

Wouldn't that require storing the scions safely for months? Or am I missing something? I've done very little grafting - none recently - but I'd recommend cutting the scions in the spring.

Lakehurst (KNEL) 51 MPH right now at about 1031A. Coming north imo

You're looking at him. I'm at ~48" for the year with two full months to go.

There are also some people in yellow that are +10"-15" on the year. I understand why, I just find it funny. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

It did happen though…just like the years it didn’t snow until January