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Well, if anybody would know...

Getting better .

thats even better ! Walt is going to have his work cut out for him trying to figure out how to explain all of this in the storm thread......

hasnt things trended colder on the whole? or is that weenie wishcasting

that pink is heavy wet snow, that doesn't show ice

Wonder if the 5th has any potential as the GFS has another shortwave take a similar path but looks to get shredded

Congrats and Happy Thanksgiving!

Ice wise for the southwestern areas it would be freezing rain in the upper 20s so may be legit enough to cause issues.

12z GFS snow for just Tuesday.

Welp...the snow weenies are back on the board. Happy Thanksgiving one and all!

Which means it will probably change again lol, but still a nice shift (not trend). We're due for an early December snow day that doesn't include scattered snow showers that take 12 hrs to accumulate a half inch.

This isn’t relaying off the eastern Pacific via a S route/split stream (along the 564) until ~ Sat morning … traversing the continent in 72 hrs in fast compression/progressive flow type. Those circumstances don’t lend to confidence even at this range. The wave space in the field is higher confidence. Something’s there. But smaller giga corrections are like .5 deg on golf ball swing ending up on the left or right side of the fairway at a 200+ yd drive I’m also leery of model-biased amplitude —> correcting down post arrivals out of assimilation regions. Once this relays into the denser sounding array, as we’ve observed more frequently than not … there’s been this recurring theme of correction toward less by 20some % … suggesting an over evaluation was taking place and running that out into mid range results in fantasy.

That’s a really solid shift SE on that run. You went from rain to NH to now rain confined for SE Mass

Not buying. Yet. Go eat some Turkey yall.

The gfs just produced what we just talked about. That’s how it becomes a good event even here. High retreats slower and the storm is slightly weaker

lock that up and call it a winter.... till Dec 6-7!

Paging @Ralph Wiggum

Wow, that was a solid run for the area.

it's actually a very cool storm imo. 4-8 inches of snow with a layer of ice on top sounds like fun

GFS is a great run for SNE/CNE….CNE would prob get some ML goodies even if modeled QPF is less.

SNE crushed

Gfs is much colder. Nice hit for most of SNE

GooFuS has restored my faith! LFG!! Happy TGiving everyone! Enjoy until Dr No shows up.

Upper 20s northern areas with the heavy snow frame is beauty.