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GEFS and CFS say MJO as a driver doesn't get cold again until the 2nd week of March

Yeah. That and to have cities have their 3rd coldest stretch in 152 years is impressive. People keep acting like this happens every winter.

The persistent and often severely cold pattern is poised to break. However, exceptional warmth appears unlikely through at least mid-February, even as milder readings return. After mid-month, highs could begin to reach the lower 40s. Tomorrow will see the temperature reach or exceed freezing. Wednesday will be even milder with the temperature topping out in the upper 30s. A cold front will likely cross the region, possibly touching off a few snow flurries or showers. It will turn somewhat cooler into the weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +4.66 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.895 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 90% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.2° (4.7° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 4.1° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. That would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

6hr snowfall on 18z Eps at 144hrs. Nothing in oir area before that hour.

Idk, March still looks pretty torchy to me, at least the first half.

Go to bed

With Wolfie as his corner man.

But yeah…usually being south of the low in the “warm” sector doesn’t pan out well, but there’s been a couple of these now that have been able to buck the trend with some moisture advection with the southerly flow while staying cold enough to snow ahead of the cold fropa.

TT vs Ginxy this ought to be good.

Or a marine heatwave somewhere else counteracts it. It’ll be interesting next winter if we go into a Nino, hopefully the western Pacific warmth can shift east and nudge the forcing east of the Dateline.

No time stamp…???

He struggles mightily…ya hate to see it.

What does that have to do with this?

You don't understand this do you?

It was more a response to Wolfie’s 50th glue factory post since the start of the year.

tbf those look very different than ecmwf.int, but no biggie

WB 18Z AI EPS tanked like the GEFS.

I think the consistency of 10s and low 20s for highs and lows in the 0s.. for like a 3 week period down here is pretty impressive. I held 8" snowcover for 2.5 weeks, which is really rare. This happened without real strong upper latitude patterns, like a -NAO or -EPO, although the AO was severely negative:

Euro still seems to win on the synoptic features, but it's been struggling with smaller stuff and QPF placement on some of these events.

It looks meager at best right now.

What was Feb '20?

18z Euro is starting to blow up the WAA too, but it's doing it a little late. My guess is it will start doing it earlier and earlier with each cycle. It also had that little weenie band down in S CT like the RGEM had at 12z, but it wasn't nearly as wild with the qpf as that RGEM run.

Euro was the correct model with pushing the core of the last arctic shot to our west.

Watch the IVT. My bet is Essex county to Weymouth