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  2. jaxjagman
    PDO next update shouldnt change much with a typhoon headed into east China the next couple days.Maybe this winter will have its own analogs,but i wouldn't rely on a +PDO,probably wont happen ATM,thats rare in a strong NINO those SSTS east of Japan,lets go skiing in West Japan this winter?Very unique pattern regardlrdd.
  3. ineedsnow
    click around here and you can find the 1,000 ensemble run https://polarwx.com/tropical/#al962026/super also weathernerds.org is good
  4. ensonerd1233e343
    still record breaking
  5. FXWX
    Kev... What site do you view Google Deep Mind tropical graphic?
  6. ensonerd1233e343
    Mine are 3.3-3.5 oni 2.4-2.6 roni so we agree for roni i just think the tropics will be warmer so the gap between roni and oni will be bigger
  7. ensonerd1233e343
    I would say three years of la nina are likely
  8. ensonerd1233e343
    I dont think it really is and either way the odds of el nino not coupling to the n pac during northen winter are near zero so imo the point is moot
  9. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
    https://northtrustpharm.com/# NorthTrust Pharm
  10. Psychguy
    Dolly was the epitome of decency and class… she will be truly missed…
  11. ensonerd1233e343
    insignifcat
  12. ensonerd1233e343
    link to site?
  13. CoastalWx
    Thankfully that won’t happen again.
  14. powderfreak
    2008 had 0 hours of dews above 70F in August? Yore.
  15. dendrite
    Middle of the road dews
  16. kdxken
    Sheesh some people will believe anything . ""We have a 290-, I think 300-foot slit right through, probably a box cutter or a knife of some kind."
  17. Today
  18. so_whats_happening
    It looks maybe for the time of year we will come close to the highest RONI number but overall 1982/83 takes the cake when it happened in December.
  19. so_whats_happening
    Yea the dynamic models tend to always overdo things but with how quickly the evolution was that made sense. I have always felt statistical was the better suite as dynamic models tend to keep with how things are going at the present time moving forward which is really hard to do. The answer usually lies just above statistical model suite line. Seeing as though there are some lessening of the overall push within the last 2 weeks and some more to come I would say we coast at this point. We will come close to the overall daily peak we saw in 2015 with a near 3C but trimonthly should end up around roughly 2.5-2.7 range when all is said and done, unless we have another surprise. Given that, RONI trimonthly may end up a bit lower than 2.5 on the trimonthly more so closer to 2.2-2.3 from the perspective of NOAA calculations. Now lets see if we can get the atmosphere to represent that of a super Nino coming up this fall. There definitely seem to be limitations to overall intensity even in a warming climate, maybe if the PDO was not fighting back we could have reached those upper thresholds.
  20. MillvilleWx
    Going to have to reach out to @katabatic and you about joining sometime this winter. Would love to catch some LES love. @WxWatcher007 and I have wanted to chase up there, and around Michigan too. Would be a ton of fun and not a whole lot of sleep lol
  21. Damage In Tolland
    Thank you for providing some reality here . Furnaced , dewst month
  22. Weather_or_Not
    Folks, it’s been a very warm and muggy month. It’s a dog fight to get under the 60 dew point mark, and when we do, we get gaslit by Louisianans that 59 dew point is crisp, chamber of commerce weather, when in reality, the AC units continue to hum away.
  23. MazooWeather
    Could have a couple of naders tomorrow if any supercells form
  24. Typhoon Tip
    That’s the first ‘hot’ run of the GFS I’ve seen in weeks
  25. Brian5671
    At least here most of the real heat was early-it's been decent outside the rainstorms since mid July for the most part.
  26. CAPE
    Eh not sure about that. You ain't getting 60-70 ft on the Tug though.
  27. kdxken
    Worcester was - 3.4 if the average stayed the same from yesterday. Yeah yeah I know in 1950 it would have been... .
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