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@MJO812is my favorite poster on the board. We see, want and feel things the same way. Stay true to the bitter end!

While it was a scraper, 18z euro actually moved a decent amount NW. But that’s partly because the 12z run was a completely clean whiff even on the Cape.

it was Juno not nemo

ok so you remember how it happened model mayhem maybe you could link us?

I never care to jack . All I’m saying is this area is in line to get a couple inches and you keep saying no snow EOR which I honestly don’t get?

Needed to hear this one tonight when my daughter turned it on after today’s model runs .

the 14th having the largest positive daily departure . The overall 10 day warmup has ended awith the onsite of the colder below normal period likely to carry us through month end. Warmup period so far SIte: High / low (dep) EWR: 1/6: 44 / 31 (+5) 1/7: 54 / 37 (+13) 1/8: 53 / 41 (+14) 1/9: 54 / 32 (+11) 1/10: 53 / 41 (+14) 0.52 1/11: 51 / 35 (+10) 1/12: 42 / 30 (+3) 1/13: 50 / 28 (+6) 1/14: 52 / 39 (+13) 1/15: 47 / NYC: 1/6: 42 / 35 (+5) 1/7: 49 / 37 (+9) 1/8: 50 / 32 (+12) 1/9: 54 / 39 (+13) 1/10: 52 / 39 (+12) 0.38 1/11: 47 / 34 (+7) 1/12: 41 / 31 (+2) 1/13: 58 / 35 (+8) 1/14: 52 / 45 (+16) 1/15: 47 /

As done as I am with this storm....im giving it one more run lol. Then maybe one more.

He gets mad when a poo poo our severe weather

Literally the same posts 15 years later

You trying to get me in trouble? Honest answer I don’t think this winter has much to do with the elephant in the room. Cold dry winters happened in the past. I still really doubt we manage to avoid snow completely but if we do it’s bad luck imo. However, when “the elephant” is making other winters worse. Winters where we might have lucked into 12” or 17” for the season in the past from some lucky perfect track just cold enough snowstorms in an otherwise mediocre pattern but now those are rain and so we end up with a winter with 3” or 6” total and so when we waste a cold one it feels even worse. 1997 was an example. The one good snowstorm I remember that winter (like 8” in northern VA) was from some perfect track wave in an otherwise warm period when temps where like 33 degrees during the storm and it was in the 50s on either side of it. Fast forward to 2023 There were a couple waves that took a perfect track that winger but it was just a little too warm. 36 degree rain. Was that a repeat or a 1997 type winter but now…maybe that one snowstorm is rain and that winter is almost totally snowless which adds to the frustration and then makes a cold dry winter even worse.

You need to relax. You don’t have to jackpot every single storm.

Slightly different than Sunday's fish storm: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2026011518&fh=72

Either way, I don’t even know why that’s being used as a comparison. The upper level set up was not even close to this.

Oh yeah I know--just reiterating support And hey...no such thing as "should". While I can't speak to what you've gone through, I do know that deep wounds can still hurt from time to time even a few years later--and that's okay! I think over time we just become better equipped to handle it.

Here he is lol

Yea, Juno

Hey it is what it is. GFS is on crack. My storm is on life support. On to the Chuck storm.

It wasn’t Nemo , you are thinking Jan 27 2015

Dude, Nemo was well modeled like a week out

Ensemble support, too.

Does the EPS-AIFS typically diverge this much from the EPS?

This is nothing like that. The upper level setup was waaaayyyy different.

He wanted you to change his oil

Divorce happens. Fortunately you still love your kids. That's what matters. Speaking from experience. Back to snow talk