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Once this record DWKW surfaces on the coast of South America, the eastern regions (1+2 and 3) are going to take off for the races. And there is nothing to attenuate it. I think it becomes very east-based over the next month. As per research, the extreme +PMM strongly supports an East Pacific/east-based El Niño. I think we part ways with 2015 in that respect soon.

May '77

Pass the canoe is more like it

Alex's bagles is crazy busy. I'm sure they're in no hurry for HHH

The one day I want stein. Hopefully just a passing shower this aftn.

Pouring here in northern Longmeadow/far southern Forest Park I'm going to enjoy the cool weather bc the inevitable miserly heat and humidity might be slightly delayed but not denied

Good tune

The all-time Nino 3.4 C record was 29.8C set in November 2015. It will be interesting to see the new Euro forecast in a few days. As the middle of its ensemble mean forecast was fairly close with the 2015-2016 event. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ 18NOV2015 23.8 2.0 28.0 2.9 29.8 3.0 30.3 1.7 https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/151/meteorology/2015-2016-el-nino-and-beyond The 2015/16 El Niño broke warming records in the central Pacific, represented by the NINO3.4 and NINO4 indices. At its peak in November 2015, the NINO3.4 SST anomaly reached 3.0°C, breaking the previous record of 2.8°C set in January 1983. In the NINO4 region, large positive anomalies are hard to achieve because average conditions are already warm. In 2015, the anomaly reached 1.7°C, a substantial increase of 0.4°C on the previous record, set in 2009. SST analyses become less precise going back in time, but the size of the anomalies in NINO4 and NINO3.4 means we are fairly confident that these are record values for the whole of the observational period back to 1860. By contrast, in the eastern Pacific (monitored by indices for the NINO3 and NINO1+2 regions) the El Niño remained below the level of the 1982/83 and 1997/98 events. It must be borne in mind that the anomaly records depend on the reference climate, which in this case is a 30-year climate (1981–2010).

Sucks the weekend is well below normal.

Looks like more rain than expected. Especially out by hippie.

Nice stretch of a few days of above normal coming up.

that was you, when i did that map on March 2nd. On the March 3-4th storm you tagged me with 0.5" so that should put you at 73.2"

Pretty impressive for Nino 3.4 SSTs to be approaching 29C in early May. This is near the record for so early in the El Niño development. The 30C warm pool is fairly expansive near the Dateline.

.07 rain from the event.

46F and a trace of rain so far in E CT

Models backing off on the cooler temps they were recently showing to start May. We should make it into the 80s this week on the warmer days. The cooler days should be closer to 60° which is an improvement than cooler days are earlier in the spring. Looks like the coldest departures will settle in over the Great Lakes with a little warmer near the coast.

If today’s system was in winter the cliff diving would be epic like epic epic

Rain is starting to pick up a bit 41.1°

Yeah. Its from 2015 and I never covered it and have only had to replace the battery on the igniter twice and the burner covers. Its well built with stainless steel everything including the fastners. Easily will go another 10 years.

last 3 days Ive picked up 1.21

I didn't know it was going to rain all night. Picked up another .17" from this little event.

Plus, it's peak bird flu season (I think). High(er) risk from any migratory flyover droppings or waterfowl flock intermingling. Always clean boots when going between farms/chicken runs, too.

A bit of snow is falling tonight. This is the 5th year since 2016 to see May snow. Chuck called a cool May 2 months ago.