All Activity

I was saying well before the season that the Ravens weakest part was WR. Having a rookie 3rd round draft pick as your number 2 is not good, and now he's on IR. It's no surprise NO won, they were actually getting hot and the end of last season, the 2nd year QB has been doing good. I picked them to win their division this year.

0.00 Was supposed to rain right ? Congratulations Winchester area !

AI euro coming in west of 18z so far

All kinds of cells firing up now. Interesting since it's in the middle of the night.

Yep getting one right now.

Congratulations, did anybody give you a medal? You definitely deserve one after all that hard work.

Strong storms forming to the south tonight.

That would be a good start to reducing the deficit along all coastal ME.

Thanks for posting this. For the first time I examined past versions of this because I just realized that the excellent website has these graphs going back to 4/11/2022. So, there’s ~1,000 of these to compare to. Now I know why the relative global AAM standardized anomaly graphs have been at extreme levels (>+4). This latitudinal based graph for 9/21/26 is an absolute beast overall and thus exhibits the strength of this Nino very well! Why? 1. Back to 4/11/22, I couldn’t find even one other day’s graph with a more positive avg std. AAM anomaly for the area from -40 to +30! The straight avg std. dev above the mean for that huge area on 9/21/26 is clearly >2. Keep in mind that 2 std dev above the mean at any one latitude is way up at the 98th percentile and thus nearly 1/3 of the globe (20N to 17S) is >>+2 std dev/>>98th percentile! 2. The # of degrees of latitude with a negative AAM anomaly of the 180 total degrees on this 9/21/26 graph adds to only 29 degrees of the 180 total (16%). I couldn’t find even one other with that small a % of latitudes <0! 3. As one can see, most of the latitudes with a -AAM anomaly on 9/21/26 are only down to the 0 to -0.3 std dev range. The lowest is only down to -1.1, which is quite high for the lowest vs the other ~1,000 graphs. The highest lowest I could find is only barely higher (~-0.9) and it overall still had a much larger area below the 0 line than 9/21/26: So, it appears that 9/21/26 has the smallest area <0 of any back to 2022! Here again is this 9/21/26 beast of a +AAM anom by latitude. Keep in mind that just 1 std dev above the mean is up at the 84th percentile: Below is the corresponding relative global AAM, which since 0Z of 9/19/26 has been at an extreme level of >+4 std dev! This is probably the peak day as it should get back to <+4 by 9/23/26. How rare is 4 std dev above the mean? Per stat. formulas, only 1 in 31,574 days (that’s once per 87 years) gets to that level! (For 3 std dev, it’s ~once/year):

GFS twins are big hits especially in eastern NE.

Lots more rain on the way for the DMV. Look at the radar! Good luck to everyone.

This is the coldest 60 degree high I can remember. Breezy NW wind, cloud cover keeping us cool, and even chillier after the sun set and the temp plummeted . Def not used to this kind of wx yet

Drought.

High astronomical tides and long fetch will be the story. High Gusts will be on the coast and waves 15-20 maybe up to 30 or more feet could be major coastal flooding if it sets up right. Inland it’s rain as the big threat. Could easily be a dud inland tho.

One other item concerning Polo. The only thing that may prevent record territory here is its slow, meandering movement in the next 24 hr. Yes, NHC notes the high OHC, however, when talking absolute records, everything typically has to be near ideal. The deep-layer 31 C SSTs, if that "only" falls to 30 C due to upwelling, that can be a factor. Still very intense, but 1 C difference in SST can be significant, in a relative sense, in this case, again when you are talking record territory.

Anniversary of both Long Island Express Hurricane-1938 and Hugo 1989.

By the end of this century, winters in Washington will resemble mid 20th century Greenwood, Mississippi, Greenville, Mississippi, or parts of California. While summers are likely to resemble mid 20th century Gulf Coast locations.