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I hope the new year can bring you happiness.

The southern stream shortwave is trending stronger and stronger with the first one. 18z euro really started to pickup in that at the end of its run yesterday.

Trying to keep up. My mom isn’t doing well and I haven’t been able to consistently mod watch but it looks like we finally have something to track. .

I think we will like the final outcome, we may score

997 low off the coast of Wilmington/Myrtle Beach on the GFS,snow on the westward side at hour 150-156

Indeed, the AAM values on your chart of recent history appear to be ~1/2 a SD higher than the CFS initializations often though sometimes they’ve been closer). For example, check out the 11/28 CFS initialization of +1, which was at its peak: Your chart says 11/28 was ~+1.4: Also, CFS initialized 12/19 at ~-1.25 vs your chart then at ~-0.7: But OTOH: CFS initialized 1/3 near 0 vs your chart then at the same: I don’t know anything about the “officialness”/accuracy of your chart. But I can say based on these comparisons that the CFS on average appears to often though not always initialize ~0.5 SDs lower than your chart’s “actuals”.

Yup back that NW like 500 miles and kaboom

Check out the thermals on the gfs. Idk if I’ve ever seen dynamic cooling that epic.

if this low ticks west 200 miles then that's a 980 tucked low off of the delmarva

Cant be upset about this look.

Ugh. That’s so wound up it’s gonna interfere with the follow up wave… That one I like for the better long wave placement… But that’s another potential issue gotta watch now…

Very close for 150+ hours, changes will happen. We’re in the game.

Meh, was a little more left. Actual storm total w/ Kuchera just to juice it up a bit

the cold spell ended Tuesday-it's like warm into next week so that's 8-10 days at least

Plenty close for this range. I can tell you one thing, it’s not going to look like what that run has in the end.

Congrats Hatteras that is a hell of vort though, Ends up a cape scraper.

I HATE North Carolina.

Wow congrats Carolinas. Their snow drought has been worse than ours of late.

Clear trend closer to a phase and less progressive on the gfs. As good as the clown was, it was close to producing a monster.

Hurt feelings run, lol

FWIW, the GFS ensemble is trending towards the Euro in regards to swinging that energy through more consolidated even if the OP is not.

Congrats North and South Carolina lol. I'm definitely not chasing a SE storm. Ewwww

Storm total

156 looks soooo close to what we need!!

It's getting there!!!!