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The historic El Nino will he driving a deep trough into the West to close out October. So we get an impressive ridge amplification in the East. Models currently have upper 70s for the usual NJ warm spots on the 30th. Normal highs for the date are in the low 60s. Almanac for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ October 30, 2026 Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest Max Temperature M 61 82 in 1946 41 in 1869

While I do agree that a SSW is an outside outlier chance, as I have been saying. The chance is not zero as of yet. Clearly having one NOT occur is the favored outcome. As it would be an unprecedented event for the time of year. As such that will never be favored. At the same time, seeing the powerhouse Ural block and an unprecedented El Nino, maybe it's best to keep an open mind about something unprecedented. We did have the end of November action in the strat last year, which was largely dismissed by most (myself included) at the time as not being much of a factor. However it proved itself to be an important player further down the line. So it's probably wise to just keep tabs on it for now until the path forward becomes much clearer. As of the 00z 10-25 runs, the EPS achieves wind reversals on quite a few members 42%. That's not insignificant. The GEFS, after having zero interest at all originally, has started to have some lately. Now some of you might be thinking, but it looks like a torch during that period. You would be right, that is also a part of what usually happens during these types of things too. Even if it doesn't go off, there's probably ramifications either way. Worth watching imo.

Looks like we dipped to 30 again. The entire state has fairly uniform temps this morning (with the obvious warm and cold usual exceptions).

26.4. Nearly 20 degrees colder than DIT. And by afternoon I'll be 5 degrees warmer.

It pays to live in the clouds this time of year. Swamps no.

That's extremely bad from an ecological perspective if you care about the natural environment. Also creates more disease vectors, more allergies, damaging frosts/freeze cycles into the winter/spring. All this depends on how long this abnormal weather lasts. A few days is fine but anything over a week and problems compound.

Some of us have to deal with cold and salt in the winter

15 degree difference between here and 650’ bottom of hill this morning.

32.4 second straight morning

They have IZG. Some like GHG don’t report 6hr max/mins. But yeah…still gotta update the list for some.

Freezing...

The system one the Dateline is clearly a TD, if not a weak TS. I looked at a WSF-M pass and it shows good curved banding, about 4/10 on Dvorak so that a T2.5. EIR loops attached speaks for itself. And yet there is not even am invest designation yet! And CPHC gives it only 40/50. No excuse for this. I've done TC classifications for a long time and this isn't borderline or vague.

39 degrees this morning in little ferry.

27 degrees and heavy frost again.

Since @CoastalWx is in boring mode. How about this to "jolt" things? https://www.facebook.com/reel/2923636334653844 bolt.mp4

Apparently, this may be started by the NWS in 2028 I am hearing. @weatherwiz all excited but @CoastalWx MEH b/c it doesn't help w/ snow! THREATS-IN-MOTION – FACETs-Severe National Weather Service Severe Weather Warnings as Threats-in-Motion in: Weather and Forecasting Volume 36 Issue 2 (2021)

You forgot "LIVING IN A SHOTGUN SHACK!"

21 for a low at KLKP. AirNav: KLKP - Lake Placid Airport PlyStWx need to update their station map! Add 1B9 (Mansfield MA). 4B8 (Plainville CT), 6B0 (Middlebury VT), 8B0 (Rangeley ME), and BXM (Brunswick ME)! And the biggest omission? (@CoastalWx will be mad) - no GHG (Marshfield MA)! That has been an AWOS for 20 years. Also, no IZG (Fryeburg ME). That's a cold spot! OGS Ogdensburg NY is missing, and just added? - N66 Oneonta NY.

I've seen it take until almost December. Nothing new. There's been more light frost this Oct than I ever remember. This area has a climate similar to central NC. We don't do cold well.

I do not contest the cold out W and warm in the E. but the choice of colors and the 0.5 C intervals make things look a lot more "Xtreme" than they really will be. It is a manipulative psychological thing, often done on purpose to push the extreme/crazy wx narrative. You could choose a different color table, and shows the same thing, and it would not look as "scary." For a met analysis and forecast tool it is good, but IMHO such maps, which are shared en masse on social media, do more harm than good due to the how the general public perceives them. Also, I find people do not know the difference between temp anomalies and actual air temp, the public that is. And the hype-masters out there know this. And it is taken out of context far too often. For instance, temps 8-12 C above avg DCA to BOS in early Nov is actually GREAT wx for the time of year (for most), as one example. Temps in the 70s and 80s w/ low dew points. Costs for heating are *way* down. Atypically warm in the cool season is not the same as in the warm season, not for sensible wx impact and humans. And such a pattern means little in the way of inclement wx. That is good for business and commerce. For general audience, just shows a map of actual fcst air temps, anomalies can be misleading.