All Activity

That's about sustainment rain. We really need some surplus rains. The reservoirs up in Baltimore County are getting quite low.

August has begun on a quiet but warm note. No exceptional heat or severe storms were present to mark the start of the month. Tomorrow will be another quiet day with readings reaching the lower 80s. Afterward, a moderate to potentially locally significant rainfall is likely Monday into Tuesday. No exceptional heat is likely through the first week of August. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.2°C for the week centered around July 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.92°C. The ongoing strong El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -21.67 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.423 today.

March first. My typo lol. It's an Airbnb. I'm just taking it for the entire winter. It's got the best location I've found out there. It's right near the famous snow town of Montague.

Tornado warning for Indy.

Tornado warned storm for Indianapolis.. looks legit

What’s the cost of Gaussman?

From what I know about Ninos it’s not common for there to be a -NAO and SER linkage in them. Plus what @CAPE mentioned is very true—not really a -NAO signal as it’s smoothed out over 3 months.

WB 18Z NBM thru Tuesday.

December 2015 somehow had it but that was a product of a wild raging MJO through 3-4-5 if I recall right, December El Ninos do tend to be warm but its rarely due to an SER

It looks pretty damn close to current reality at initialization, and then evolves to more of basin wide event as winter progresses. Who's to say it doesn't have the right idea? And yes, Chuck- -PNA

Monday kind of meh’ing out

I'm sensing some difficulties with this deal. Proceed with caution.

As is the Colorado State severe weather learning machine.

It's rained and been in the low 70s here today, but some sun is starting to peek out now.

I'm pretty excited for winter. I'm one phone call away from closing a deal on a seasonal cabin rental at Barns Corner, NY. That's ground 0 on the Tug Hill. It's from Dec 1 to February 31. If my location isn't being hit directly I'll still be able to quickly get right where I'll need to be from base camp on the top of the hill. I won't be far from the Adirondacks if I need to get even higher up in elevation. Pretty exciting times.

CANSIPS has the El Nino way too far west. Further north in the EPO domain has less to do with ENSO though, and lot of the colder temps on model are from ridging 60-90N on the Pacific side. A further east El Nino event would correlate more with trough in GOA, vs the spread out +PNA that it's showing with Nino 3.4 based El Nino. Even though it's not as cold, our biggest storms happen with GOA trough. Let's see it develop at all first though, the first half of Aug is projected to be the 7th consecutive -PNA month.

Yep

NAMs are very pedestrian for Monday but it's the NAM

Man or unmanned?

Well SOMEONE cut a 350 ft gash in the reflecting pool. Probably used a box cutter... Or Buck knife

If the anticipated decay of the Niño occurs during that timeframe (or ideally later), it would favor another warm and active spring for the Midwest especially. I’ll take it.

That's not typically a thing in an El Nino. And on a smoothed climate model depicting a long wave pattern over a 3 month period months in the future, the only thing that can be gleaned is the general idea and its somewhat subjective. There isn't really a notable signal for a -NAO on this panel imo. A -EPO.. yes.

Late July 2013 featured a legitimately impressive cold snap, with daytime highs barely reaching 60° in Madison, which was truly October-like. Today, by contrast, temperatures have already climbed into the 70s despite the rain and persistent northeast winds, so it's not really all that noteworthy. Though I suppose it may feel that way after the hot July we just had.