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Wetter look east

Records: Highs: EWR: 81 (2003) NYC: 79 (2003) LGA: 80 (2003) JFK: 75 (2003) Lows: EWR: 29 (1951) NYC: 28 (1875) LGA: 32 (1951) JFK: 32 (1980) Historical: 1890 - The temperature at Los Angeles, CA, reached 96 degrees, a November record for 76 years. (David Ludlum) 1927 - Somerset VT was deluged with 8.77 inches of rain to establish a 24 hour record for the state. (3rd-4th) (The Weather Channel) 1927: Historic flooding occurred across Vermont from November 2nd through the 4th. The flood washed out 1285 bridges, miles of roads and railways, and several homes and buildings. Eighty-four people were killed from the flooding, including Lt. Governor S. Hollister Jackson. Click HERE for additional information by Tom Moore. 1956: (1st-3rd) Eastern CO thunderstorms turned into a blizzard by night (1st); drifts to 12 feet high. 16 head of cattle were driven by winds against a fence where they were apparently killed by lightning. Another 33 head drowned when forced into a river by the storm. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) 1961 - A rare November thunderstorm produced snow at Casper, WY. (3rd-4th) (The Weather Channel) 1966: An early season snowfall, which started on the 2nd, whitened the ground from Alabama to Michigan. Mobile, Alabama, had their earliest snowflakes on record. Louisville, Kentucky measured 13.1 inches, Nashville; Tennessee reported 7.2 inches, and Huntsville, Alabama, had 4 inches of snow. 1980: The 24 °F temperature range in the local area with a low of 19°F in northwest suburbs to 43° in Washington, DC was very unusual. (Ref. Washington Weather Records DCA) 1982: Surface high pressure along the Mid Atlantic combined with upper level high pressure off the Bahamas brought unseasonably warm weather to the East Coast. Sterling (Dulles Airport), VA: 82°, Georgetown, DE: 80°, Philadelphia, PA: 76°-Tied, Binghamton, NY: 75°, Williamsport, PA: 74°, Albany, NY: 74°, Burlington, VT: 74°, Syracuse, NY: 74°-Tied and Worcester, MA: 73°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1987 - Twenty-one cities, mostly in the Ohio Valley, reported record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 80 degrees at Columbus OH was their warmest reading of record for so late in the season. Showers and thundershowers associated with a tropical depression south of Florida produced 4.28 inches of rain at Clewiston in 24 hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - A sharp cold front brought about an abrupt end to Indian Summer in the north central U.S. Up to a foot of snow blanketed Yellowstone Park WY, and winds in the mountains near the Washoe Valley of southeastern Wyoming gusted to 78 mph. Unseasonably warm weather continued in the south central U.S. Del Rio TX tied Laredo TX and McAllen TX for honors as the hot spot in the nation with a record warm afternoon high of 91 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Cold weather prevailed in the central U.S. Six cities in Texas, Minnesota, and Michigan, reported record low temperatures for the date. The low of 7 above zero at Marquette MI was their coldest reading of record for so early in the season. (The National Weather Summary) 1991: Brownsville, TX recorded its first snow since 11/28/1976. Only a trace fell but this stands out as significant, since snow occurred so far south so early and the fact that Portland, ME had not recorded its first snow of the season up to this date. The last measurable snow in Brownsville was way back in February 1895 when the local paper reported 5 inches on the ground. Brownsville did not receive measurable snow on any date in the 20th century.(Ref. AccWeather Weather History) Record cold prevailed across Colorado behind the "Halloween Mega Storm". Pueblo dropped to -17°, breaking the previous record for the day by an amazing 28 degrees. Alamosa recorded -26°, breaking the old daily record by 18 degrees. Other daily record lows included: Havre, MT: -15°-Tied, Lander, WY: -12°, Glasgow, MT: -11°, Helena, MT: -8°, North Platte, NE: -6°, Bismarck, ND: -4°, Scottsbluff, NE: -4°, Colorado Springs, CO: -2°, Sioux Falls, SD: -2°, Norfolk, NE: -2°, Missoula, MT: 0°, Clayton, NM: 0°, Fargo, ND: 0°, Grand Forks, ND: 0°, Rapid City, SD: 0°, Grand Island, NE: 0°, Valentine, NE: 0°, St. Cloud, MN: 0°, Aberdeen, SD: 1°, Huron, SD: 1°, Lincoln, NE: 1°, Goodland, KS: 1°, Dodge City, KS: 3°, Sioux City, IA: 3°, Concordia, KS: 4°, Rochester, MN: 4°, Omaha, NE: 6°, Amarillo, TX: 7° (broke previous record by 11 degrees), Lubbock, TX: 7° (broke previous record by 16 degrees), Des Moines, IA: 7°, Minneapolis, MN: 8°, Waterloo, IA: 9°, Kansas City, MO: 10° (broke previous record by 10 degrees), Oklahoma City, OK: 11° (broke previous record by 10 degrees) plus additional cities.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History) Alamosa, Colorado:In Alamosa, the temperature plunges to -26 °F (-32 °C) shattering the old record by 18 F degrees (10 C deg) as record cold grips Colorado. (Ref. WxDoctor) 2001: Hurricane Michelle reached peak intensity on this day as a Category 4 storm. Michelle made landfall on November 4-5, between Playa Larga and Playa Giron, Cuba, as a Category 4 hurricane, the strongest to strike the country since 1952's Hurricane Fox. The storm caused an estimated $2 billion US dollars in damage to Cuba. 2002: A Magnitude 7.9 earthquake struck central Alaska. The quake is the 9th largest to be recorded in the US. 2007: Dense fog in the early morning hours resulted in a 100 vehicle pile-up just north of Fowler, CA on I-99. Two people were killed, and 41 others were injured. The thick seasonal fog is known as "Tule fog" and typically occurs in Central California in late fall and winter.

RIB (Rest in Bits) to the NAM. Anyone have any eulogies?

56 / 45 some clouds rolling through otherwise the dry and sunny low 70s int he warmest stations. Continues and warmth peaks tomorrow with sw flow and mid 70s perhaps better in the warmest spots. Enjoy this stretch as First rain since Oct 16 or Oct 14th for our area and a chance of >1.00 inch between Thu PM and Sat AM. Beyond there near normal and likely turning wetter it'll be interesting going from 18-20 days of dry to see if we can get 3 days between rain chances moving past nov 5th. Ridging and overall warm look to head back this way towards Nov 14th and beyond but liekly staying wetter.

Another great forecast of Mostly Sunny today by Upton GOES-EAST US PSeUdo-Color LOOP

Only got down to 53.1° for the low, thread title FTW... so far

Absolutely, but I think that there are more subtle seasonal undertones afoot that will provide at least one window for an event the likes of the Megalopolis blizzard of Feb 1983, the January blizzard of 2016 and the December 23, 1997 short-term crippling snow event across interior SNE. Will SOMEONE be left out? Probably-

I totally expect one brutally stupid cold shot in Feb amidst a sea of warmth to screw with my fruit trees. Probably a late freeze after a week of 70s too.

We troll and joke about a snowless winter, but it’ll come…even with positive temp departures. We’re just going to need an active pattern and accept that there will likely be a lot of messy or pure rain events as well. I suppose an epic ratter is on the table if things line up poorly, but I wouldn’t stress over that on 11/3. CON had 50” in 1877-78 with 3 events of 6”+ and the largest total being 12” on 2/1/1878. There was very little snow in Dec and Mar though…most of the season was Jan/Feb.

There is no doubt in my mind that we see a record-breaking STJ over the next 4+ months with a non stop train of storms into the west coast….strongest east-based super El Nino in history, ++PMM, strong +QBO…..there aren’t too many locks in weather but this is one of them

we discussed it last month... possible NYC stays above 32 all winter?

Agreed....I called that January blizzard over the summer down to within a week.

I wouldn't call those storms flukes. they took advantage of some pretty anomalous blocking patterns

I’m okay with it.

I also like a mid to late December final peak

This is wild weather. Very Denver like. Cool to cold nights and warm days. But last winter the steam pipe to my building at work burst under ground. They never fixed it, but put in this temporary system. Once it is on, it is on. So I’m still dressing like it is July. My office with the window AC on is a warm 74. Absolutely wild to to have the AC and heat blasting, but here we are.

I know no one likes Steve D but he said the same thing. This event will be peaking soon which should allow the pattern to become colder and possibly more wintry in the 2nd half of winter.

Thats way out there. You always do this. Just take one month at a time.

This area has been the boring weather center for a while now lol

One last note, we need to watch the GFS for cold fronts at this time of year. In the past, it generally has performed the best during November and December when sniffing out cold fronts. The Euro usually is better after mid-Dec and through Feb. I don't see much on the GFS(yet) indicating any flip to cold. Right now, it just shows normal cold fronts pushing into warmer air masses. But watch it carefully for the end of the month and earl Dec....it will likely catch any potential shenanigans first.

Yes, I like a weekly peak between 12/17 and 12/29, which is when 1997 and 1982 peaked, respectively. This yield a NDJ ONI peak. Great assessments this year.

A couple of early morning thought....I am just gonna place a bunch of Nov/winter stuff here. The strat split is probably Nov discussion. So, I am going to file the information here so that it will be easier to find later. 1. Modeling is probably gonna be a mess with a potential disturbance of the strat. If it actually splits, modeling could miss badly on anything depicted after the split. I have seen models show crazy cold over NE TN w/ an SSW predicted at range....only to send it into the West at the last minute. I have also seen models miss the cold. 2. Early stat splits(if it actually splits...what is the timeline on it splitting?) do have some interesting analogs which might prove to be useful too our area. Those were noted above by John. 3. The CANSIPS has been locked into a cold winter for months. However, it flipped November to warm(on this latestt run) after being cold. Really, the most useful CANSIPS(for winter) is the one which is released on Dec 1. It generally is a warm model, so colder solutions are interesting. It also badly missed October. It called for cold, and October was anything but that. Now, I don't necessarily fault a model for busting with shoulder season months. But....its recent track record might be categorized as "abysmal." I am pretty sure it has missed August, September, and October badly. Short story, it seems to be only correcting at the last minute, if at all. It has been a while since it has been correct during the past few months, but it does have a history of some skill during winter. Right now, buyer beware. Let's see what Euro seasonals show. 4. I think modeling is likely correct w/ BN heights over the SE for the second half of winter. I suspect the CANSIPS is over-doing how cold it will be. Ninos have nasty habit of being cloudy, rainy, and just not quite cold enough for snow. That said, the early strat "could" really shake up even the best of LR models. IMHO, and early strat split(IF it actually happens) reshuffles the deck for winter. Ninos often produced big snowstorms, but only a few...with the exceptions being notable winters. 5. Since this is the November thread, I do think we see a very, very slow step down back to normal by the end of the month. There is still a pretty big storm showing up around the last third of the month. It looks like it lacks a cold air source, but higher elevations might want to watch it. The 0z Euro phased the thing w/ northern jet energy(SE of the benchmark?). Modeling, when it picks up big storms like that at range, is often onto something. Looks like a rainer, but could be a strong slp or even a bowling ball low. Something interesting to watch. There is a legit chance for a big flip to cold later during November as warm falls often are followed by that. 6. As several have noted, we need the rain. It has been feast or famine this year w/ rainfall. NE TN generally finds a way "not to rain" at this time of year. 7. Does this El Nino suddenly crash? There are some signals that it might. If so, winter could begin w/ a strong Nino, progress to a weak Nino by the last third of winter, and then descend to neutral by early spring. That would leave a window(and Cosgrove has noted this) for cold and stormy weather during the last half of winter. 8. Of note, the nights have been chilly w/ low humidity ongoing. As soon as the sun goes down, the tempt plummets IMBY.