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My total rainfall yesterday was 2.18" along with several close lightning strikes in the evening storm. My July total is 6.46".

Yeah, the 100°+ heat has generally been occurring earlier in the summer since 2010 than in previous decades. Only 2 years since then recorded 100° heat between August 1st and 9th. No 100° heat from August 10th onward. First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Minimum 06-09 (2011) 06-30 (2021) 0 Mean 07-01 07-21 19 Maximum 07-20 (2022) 08-09 (2022) 43 2025 06-23 (2025) 101 07-30 (2025) 100 36 2024 06-21 (2024) 100 08-01 (2024) 100 40 2023 - - - - - 2022 07-20 (2022) 100 08-09 (2022) 101 19 2021 06-29 (2021) 102 06-30 (2021) 103 0 2020 - - - - - 2019 - - - - - 2018 - - - - - 2017 - - - - - 2016 - - - - - 2015 - - - - - 2014 - - - - - 2013 07-18 (2013) 101 07-19 (2013) 100 0 2012 07-07 (2012) 102 07-18 (2012) 104 10 2011 06-09 (2011) 102 07-23 (2011) 102 43 2010 07-04 (2010) 101 07-07 (2010) 101 2 First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Minimum 06-15 (1994) 06-19 (1994) 0 Mean 07-11 07-25 13 Maximum 08-07 (2001) 09-03 (1993) 75 2009 - - - - - 2008 - - - - - 2007 - - - - - 2006 08-01 (2006) 100 08-03 (2006) 101 1 2005 07-27 (2005) 101 08-13 (2005) 102 16 2004 - - - - - 2003 - - - - - 2002 07-04 (2002) 100 08-13 (2002) 100 39 2001 08-07 (2001) 100 08-09 (2001) 105 1 2000 - - - - - 1999 07-05 (1999) 103 07-19 (1999) 100 13 1998 - - - - - 1997 07-15 (1997) 101 07-17 (1997) 100 1 1996 - - - - - 1995 07-15 (1995) 104 07-15 (1995) 104 0 1994 06-15 (1994) 101 06-19 (1994) 102 3 1993 06-19 (1993) 102 09-03 (1993) 100 75 1992 - - - - - 1991 07-20 (1991) 100 07-21 (1991) 102 0 1990 - - - - - 1989 - - - - - 1988 06-22 (1988) 101 07-17 (1988) 100 24 1987 - - - - - 1986 07-07 (1986) 100 07-07 (1986) 100 0 1985 - - - - - 1984 - - - - - 1983 - - - - - 1982 07-18 (1982) 100 07-18 (1982) 100 0 1981 - - - - - First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Minimum 06-21 (1953) 06-26 (1943) 0 Mean 07-14 07-27 12 Maximum 08-28 (1973) 09-02 (1953) 72 1980 07-20 (1980) 101 07-21 (1980) 101 0 1979 - - - - - 1978 - - - - - 1977 07-19 (1977) 100 07-21 (1977) 102 1 1976 - - - - - 1975 - - - - - 1974 - - - - - 1973 08-28 (1973) 100 08-28 (1973) 100 0 1972 - - - - - 1971 - - - - - 1970 - - - - - 1969 - - - - - 1968 - - - - - 1967 - - - - - 1966 06-27 (1966) 101 07-13 (1966) 100 15 1965 - - - - - 1964 - - - - - 1963 07-01 (1963) 100 07-01 (1963) 100 0 1962 - - - - - 1961 - - - - - 1960 - - - - - 1959 06-29 (1959) 100 06-29 (1959) 100 0 1958 - - - - - 1957 07-22 (1957) 101 07-22 (1957) 101 0 1956 - - - - - 1955 07-05 (1955) 101 08-02 (1955) 100 27 1954 07-14 (1954) 102 07-31 (1954) 103 16 1953 06-21 (1953) 100 09-02 (1953) 105 72 1952 06-26 (1952) 102 06-26 (1952) 102 0 1951 - - - - - 1950 - - - - - 1949 07-03 (1949) 100 08-11 (1949) 102 38 1948 08-26 (1948) 103 08-28 (1948) 102 1 1947 - - - - - 1946 - - - - - 1945 - - - - - 1944 08-04 (1944) 100 08-13 (1944) 100 8 1943 06-25 (1943) 100 06-26 (1943) 102 0 1942 - - - - - 1941 - - - - - 1940 - - - - -

How are yall even in a drought..lol We are having the same luck here like @ Dwagner is going through,i dont think we've gotten a inch the last 30 days while some parts are doing exceptional well.

0.23” of rain yesterday. .

COC for next 10 days. .

I'll also say this is a big, big win for AI guidance, especially Euro AI and Euro AI ensembles. It identified the window and also latched onto a more western track early on. I continue to be highly impressed by AI sniffing out windows in marginal conditions.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/rare-atlantic-nina-joins-super-el-nino-atmospheric-shield-hurricane-season-winter-united-states-canada-fa/

09-10 was modiki (west based). Best we can hope for this year is probably basin wide.

So we did a little fact check on Charlie's claim that the raw data cooled more than surrounding stations.....The facts are that the raw cooling data is well supported by the surrounding regions! Below is the AI review of the raw data for the 3 stations in question. What that regional record shows for 1946–1970 Using Penn State's State Climatologist office data (built from this same NCEI divisional dataset): Metric Official SE PA Division (Chester/Berks/Montgomery/Lancaster region) Your 3-station Chesco composite 1946 annual avg 54.0°F — 1970 annual avg 52.4°F — Trend −0.093°F/yr −0.083°F/yr Total change, 1946–1970 −2.23°F −2.00°F R² 0.365 0.352 p-value 0.0014 0.0018 That's a remarkably close match — both in direction, magnitude, and statistical significance. Individually, Phoenixville 1E (−2.34°F, p=0.0008) and West Chester 2NW (−2.48°F, p=0.0014) track the regional figure almost exactly; Coatesville 1SW is a bit weaker (−1.17°F) and only marginally significant on its own (p=0.055), but still points the same direction. Bottom line: Yes, the cooling is well supported by the surrounding region. This is a case where the "raw" county data and the "official" broader regional data agree closely So @chubbs if the cooling in the raw data is statistically the same as the surrounding data why did NCEI choose to chill the raw data further in each and every year between 1946-1970??

Yeah not sure what they were thinking there...any heat looked transient through early Ughust at the minimum

It’s been the trend for the last 10 years or so.

FAIL

What about Al?

We got maybe 34 rain drops last night around 9-930pm but man helluva light show from all the lightning and was windy. Everything just missed us not by much. Total rainfall yesterday was .03" here

If you’re not getting anything then I have no chance whatsoever

Please call me Ken lol

Don’t they pretty much always do that? The last two winters defaulted to a Nina look. That didn’t turn out too well either.

Kudos to the UKMET. Especially with the eventual westward component that it started suggesting before anything else. A few days ago, the ensembles latched onto taking the feature into the WATL. I was confident of that as well. But confidence means little in the early stages of a disorganized system caught between several dominant features and weak steering currents that are not fully resolved. Now, we have to see how convection evolves with the overall broader surface low. If a smaller vorticity becomes dominant, location if where that occurs will be critical to how long this system remains over water versus the gradual westward turn. Regardless, it looks like copius rainfall is on the menu for the Panhandle/So. Alabama, MS, and LA.

In the below 2022 study, "the authors analyzed thousands of different versions of the dataset downloaded over 10 years. They studied the homogenization adjustments for more than 800 European temperature records. They found that these adjustments changed dramatically every day when NOAA re-ran their computer program. The authors found that only 17% of NOAA’s adjustments were consistent from run to run. Furthermore, by compiling historical records known as station history metadata for each of the stations, they were able to compare the adjustments applied by NOAA’s computer program to the documented changes that were known to have occurred at the weather station. They found that less than 20% of the adjustments NOAA had been applying corresponded to any event noted by the station observers - such as a change in instrumentation or a station move." Homogenization of data is badly flawed and should be disregarded as such"The study itself was not focused on the net effects of these adjustments on long-term climate trends. However, the authors warned that these bizarre inconsistencies in this widely-used climate dataset are scientifically troubling. They also are concerned that most researchers using this important dataset have been unaware of these problems until now.https://www.ceres-science.com/post/major-problems-identified-in-data-adjustments-applied-to-a-widely-used-global-temperature-dataset?fbclid=IwY2xjawTJxvZleHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETFRaGlnYzJQQVNzdndoTkdwc3J0YwZhcHBfaWQQMjIyMDM5MTc4ODIwMDg5MgABHlguzGDpWxHyS0ptciE_1okX3LFV-2pBe4Pu2WQnleZLxvskMdPVhhDxQZq5_aem_g_cHQVsBuo4BwgjgPPTV1g

Clear as ever around 8 this morning. Just looked out my window at the hill to the west - smoke is back.

Just checking in. A month ago it looked like a possible west based Nino. Now east base? I thought 2009-10 was a east base?

1.80" for event, up to 5" for month....first 5"+ month since 8/24.

Rare to see the CSU and SPC so at odds (wrt Tuesday). 12k NAM has a couple rounds here locally, one midday and one later in the evening, while the RRFS has just one, in the afternoon. my interest is certainly piqued whenever we get strong flow in the summer, so expecting at least a few SVRs throughout the day.