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Another event that will end as mundane and boring as possible in the summer of extreme bore. Hopefully it still cuts west -
ironwood cluster looks like it could turn and ride into our area
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I appreciate Scoot reaching a hand out to me while I dangle off the Tobin. -
First time I can ever recall not having to mow my lawn after winter. Aside from a few weedy spots that I need to shave off, grass said f it. Too hot and dry. I guess will have to wait until late September to get some growth.
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I'm still suspecting the whole of it has been over amped in guidance, and as we near the organized coherence might unravel ... at least some. But ultimately trimming back. how much so, heh Won't be butt hurt if that's not the case - just a suspicion in this case. Lot of tl;dr read to support why - -
75 in of rain sounds biblical. Hope you had an ARK!
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WestBabylonWeather changed their profile photo -
I knew it! As soon as I walked outside I noticed it. There's even a little burnt rubber smell.
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I’d probably side with some high res models but perhaps not fully. Maybe a Nam/euro compromise. This feels like one of those things that we have a 50 mile wide plume of heavy rain with embedded little meso lows in it that will enhance rainfall. That’s especially true I think for Western areas. Further east, we might see another one sort of develop and try to pinwheel to the coast again and some typical enhancement on East Northeast flow. But these setups are always varying from run to run. I do think even up to Dendrite gets a good drink. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The Arctic N of 80N since late May has been the coldest per the DMI graphs since 1958! Keep in mind that variances in summer are quite small and thus this is all it has taken to easily be the coldest. IF this were to continue through late August and especially Sept, it’s going to get my attention more as that’s generally when anomalies have started to be warm in most recent years after a near neutral summer:
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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
SolidIcewx replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
A repeat of last tuesday would be nice -
It's funny how those that don't like hot(cold) air ... attempt to gaslight any hot(cold) air as being less significant when it is clear to everyone else that a given region is highly likely in a state of misery in hot(cold) air. Yet, they are not actually even a part of a given region that is "not suffering" the hot(cold) air, too ... LOL
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Agreed on this. You can see that hinted at just looking at how the mlvls evolve. This is more like a cool season evolution than something we usually see in the warm season. Just looking at 700 RH you can see the idea of two jack zones and where -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Joe Bastardi’s current primary analogs for this winter are 1957-8 and 1965-6. He showed on Saturday that the avg temperature of those 2 in DJF is close to what recent CFS means have had. But his basis of using those 2 is that they’re both 2 very strong El Niños with a -PDO. What the? Whereas I hope we get something like what the CFS has been showing, I can’t figure out why he’s counting them as -PDO analogs: -1957-8 had +1 to +2.4 PDO every month from June through Feb! -1965-6 PDO was neutral in July and then +0.7 to +1.4 Aug-Dec. Then it fell only to borderline -PDO in Jan/Feb (-0.3, -0.2). https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat -
I don't know if I see much flooding potential outside of any typical flood-prone areas that flood if it precipitates for more than 5 minutes. A lot of this is drawn out over multiple days and ends up being more convective in nature. There will be a good slug of rain early on in the setup with the warm front or even triple point but this looks to occlude rather quickly. Any flooding risk probably confined to (if) any areas that are hit with several rounds of convection.
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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
Eskimo Joe replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
At this point, I would just be happy with a regionwide 1.5" - 2.5" of rain. We are seriously in need of a recharge of the aquifers and water ways. -
Smokey skies again?
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What makes this month’s rain even more impressive in the triangle is we achieved these totals without a tropical system involved. And it hasn’t been just a couple rogue storms, it has been consistent heavy events from the start to the end of the month. With many areas now over a foot of rain with more possible tomorrow, this month is working towards the top 5 wettest months all time for the area and probably the wettest ever without a significant tropical system to influence the totals. The drought isn’t over but per WRAL we needed 18” in July to end it and I’m sitting over 13” and RDU has nearly 12. That is damn impressive and lakes and rivers have responded as well
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It’s interesting that both the Arctic and the Antarctic have been cold the last 2 months relative to the past. The Arctic N of 80N since late May has been the coldest per the DMI graphs since 1958! Keep in mind that variances in summer are quite small and thus this is all it has taken to easily be the coldest. IF this were to continue through late August and especially Sept, it’s going to get my attention more as that’s generally when anomalies have started to be warm in most recent years after a near neutral summer:
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Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
pawatch replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
We definitely need some rain. Lets hope their prediction is right. -
That storm had some intense ground strikes. It woke me up for sure. I did not pop up the drone as it was already pouring too much.
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yeah during the week is fine-just don't need the rain here-everyone still cleaning up the damage from last week.
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Good. I’ll take Tuesday rain and a clear weekend all of the time, better than a bad weekend
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Rather impressive thunderstorm last evening around 12:30 a.m. moving north to south along the western edges of northern Delaware. Received about 75 in of rain.
