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  2. LakePaste25
    I know @bluewave brings this up a lot, but I will forever be fascinated by the clean phase 8 pass through in January 2022. With all of the competing Nina forcing going on, I don’t know how we pulled that off especially during an actual Nina.
  3. SJonesWX
    I hope that stuff stays east of me. Got the grill going and don’t want to stand out in the rain
  4. LakePaste25
    I consider 2021-2022 to be an east-based La Niña.
  5. Itstrainingtime
    What makes you say that? WPC precip map is weighted heavily to our NE with the heaviest rainfall.
  6. mitchnick
    The Jamstec. My new favorite seasonal model...so far. https://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/seasonal/outlook.html
  7. mahantango#1
    I'm glad I have my irrigation pump set up to pump water out of the creek for my garden. I watered Friday and yesterday morning.
  8. dendrite
    Just had a really close CG. Just getting grazed by a developing cell.
  9. Stormlover74
    12z similar
  10. psv88
    Beautiful Father’s Day. Enjoy all
  11. CoastalWx
    Yeah I would expect the latter in the warm season but those can also produce big rains.
  12. Typhoon Tip
    It's interesting how that thing's changed over the week running up to it ... It was originally sort of weird quick coastal ( that looked dubious, admittedly), replete with a burst of NE flow and drilling rains ... Probably 60 F tops. Now, it's more like it's just a humid disjointed morass with less structure overall.
  13. jm1220
    Yep-skunk zone. T-storms area to the south and stratiform heavy rain along I-90. We need it, hope I’m wrong. But this is a summer SWFE that always tries to nudge north. Maybe the T-storms zone can nudge N too.
  14. Baum
    On target for the worst Fathers Day I remember.
  15. Kmlwx
    I've heard (usually from @high risk ) that the HRRR tends to overmix out low level moisture - could that be a factor here?
  16. vortex95
    HRRR and RRFS have meaty storms and in two distinct waves. However, CAPE is rather low for this time of year for a svr event. Hodographs look better on the NAM/HRRR but not so much on the RRFS. 0-3 km CAPE is lacking on the HRRR and RRFS, so I have to wonder about tor potential. It is fairly strong s/w for June passing just to our N and overall wind fields are good, so perhaps the dynamical part will make up for the rather low CAPE and that's why the HRRR and RRFS show meaty storms. PWATs ramp up nicely during the day. K-indices fcst get to upper 30s so likely big rain producers.
  17. suzook
    Another cloudy dreary day. I can't believe how stuck in this cloudy wet pattern we have been in here. About a month so far. Depressing.
  18. Kmlwx
    I'm more "in" on this one than the prior events. It could still fizzle - and I certainly don't think it's going to be an "outbreak" - but storm coverage has higher confidence it seems - and the shear does raise some eyebrows! Also I'll be in the office - which seems to guarantee good storms (my office is in the core of the building with no windows - so I essentially miss anything that happens during cool events).
  19. PhiEaglesfan712
    About 2 years ago, I did the composites on the moderate and strong la ninas. 1975-76 was the closest to being east based of the strong la ninas. 1949-50 is probably the best example of an east based la nina, with 1970-71 and 1984-85 possibly being east based.
  20. Today
  21. mappy
    Methinks we won’t be playing softball tomorrow night
  22. mitchnick
    Looks Modoki, but that's probably a long shot at this point. But it's not alone completely as Cansips has a more Modoki/central Pacific centered max: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=sstaMean_noice_month&runtime=2026060100&fh=8
  23. EastCoast NPZ
    I refuse to answer that question as I know that any answer will be used as a joke against me. Lol
  24. vortex95
    I've noticed that if a 5% tor risk is present, that almost always means a tor watch is issued.
  25. frd
  26. LakePaste25
    CRW is already at +1.2
  27. snowman19
    This TC/MJO progression is going to initiate a massive WWB with a constructively interfering ERW at the end of this month into July. Another (new) DWKW guaranteed to follow. And we have a developing +IOD. I’m more convinced than ever that this event will easily be stronger than any El Niño we’ve seen since 1950 in both RONI and traditional ONI
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