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  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Never any guarantees with an El Niño that powerful, but we can all agree that we'll need some negative NAO to have an appreciable shot.
  3. bluewave
    Even a -NAO -AO during a super El Niño can be warm with very little snow like we saw in January 1998. The issue is how strong the El Niño ridge was in the Great Lakes into the Northeast to the south of the block over Greenland. Also note that the forcing moving to the east of the Dateline didn’t help since it was so strong.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would welcome this, regardless of how we fare this coming winter.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, that's more of a traditional, canonical-intense El Niño response, more in line with 1997. NAO will be crucial to salvaging a winter. Probably cooler than 2023 in the NE in the absence of that competing MC element.
  6. snowman19
    Nice write up. Been saying it, but in addition to the east-based super Nino, +IOD, maybe slightly +PDO and -AMO, the Copernicus suite is showing the 30C isotherm getting pushed all the way to 140W, which would be the first time it history, the previous record being 155W. If that actually happens, it would effectively end the “split forcing” that we saw in 2015-16 and 2023-34. IMO, given these basically non stop major WWBs and DWKWs since April, which look to continue, that entire equatorial WPAC/Indo warm pool gets sloshed/shunted east (finally)
  7. MANDA
    I'm forecasting 1" with locally higher amounts along I-78 on northward at the moment. We'll watch for subtle shifts. At a minimum I think 1/2" - 1" looks pretty solid between the I-78 - I-90 corridor. With locally higher amounts. I'll be disappointed with anything under 1". Sunny parts of the lawn not reached by sprinklers are taking it on the chin. Looking terrible. If this keeps up much longer I'm worried NJ will issue mandatory restrictions and start banning all but essential irrigation as we head through July.
  8. BlizzardWx
    And it's worth noting it's not just really warm vs less warm. ECMWF seasonal shows genuine cool anomalies near the MC as part of that +IOD along with the eastward leaning nino. I think if this roughly happens it really would kill the split forcing Bluewave is always talking about. Even further north the ECMWF seasonal is mostly breaking down the warm water in the west Pacific with what is a neutral to maybe slight +PDO look. This would be a genuine change from the last decade. And that's to say nothing of what still looks to be a marginally negative AMO.
  9. Voyager
    The downside appears that those triggers are going to be all the things I like. Beef, sausage, spicy foods, etc.
  10. HoarfrostHubb
    ORH is very warm so far. +4.6F for the month. That number should tickle down a bit before any good warmth kicks in.
  11. winterwx21
    12z Euro still looks good -- an inch to inch and a half for most of the area. GFS misses to the south with the heavier rain while RGEM misses to the north. Who knows at this point, but even the areas that miss the heavier rain should still get some.
  12. Today
  13. CoastalWx
    Yeah I think we warm up a bit late month and early July but then ridge retros west and we’ll cool off a bit. But cool in July hopefully means summer. Nino is flexing.
  14. kdxken
    Great lineup with spoon and geese. Almost went.
  15. Picard
    Possibly a split situation? - A main area into NY state and another smaller area into south central PA into central NJ, with bupkis in between. Both maps are suggestive, and it's happened plenty of times before.
  16. ineedsnow
    Someone doesnt know how to read i guess.. that wasnt what i thought at all
  17. ineedsnow
    Good luck
  18. steve392
    Another gorgeous day. Winds blowing as usual. Hope it don't mess up the airshow today at Greenwood Lake Airport.
  19. mahantango#1
    Your gonna awaken the "Blizz" with such dreadful language. Let us get through summer first.
  20. IronTy
    Man over the past 2-3 days it seems like everyone's grass just gave up the ghost and is burned to a crisp. Ground is like concrete and cracking everywhere too.
  21. Great Snow 1717
    Some people seem to enjoy making "donations" to their power supplier...
  22. Weather Will
    WB 12Z GFS, EURO, Can. And NBM (15Z).
  23. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Lots umbrellas flying at the beach today. Other then the wind it’s a 10/10 beach day. .
  24. HoarfrostHubb
    Ever seen Whiskey Treaty Roadshow?
  25. GaWx
    Euro progging peak of impressive +1.4 Oct, which would beat 11/1997 record of +1.3! However, avg IOD has been rising with CC and thus in theory would need to be adjusted down to be comparable and would be < the +1.3 of ‘97. Otherwise, even the adjusted IOD prog could very well be 2nd strongest on record! IOD data back to 1870, which shows the ‘97 record and longterm rise: https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.data
  26. stormy
    The thing about a strong El Nino winter is that expectations are always high but reality can sometimes be a disappointment. 72-73 at +2.00 only gave Augusta County 3.0" of snow. 86-87 at +1.60 gave Augusta 52" of snow. 91-92 at +2.30 only gave Augusta 3.3" of snow. 09 - 10 at +1.50 average gave Augusta 63" of snow. The thing about 09-10 is that both the NAO at -2.00 and the AO at -3.50 were strongly negative. I think that was important.
  27. HIPPYVALLEY
    Fantastic weather for the Green River Festival. Usually we get downpours or blazing heat. War and Treaty and Charley Crockett were killer last night. Kurt Vile, Spoon, Lucius, Geese and so much more coming up the next two days!
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