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18 z GFS gives me .25"

It is stronger and sharper with the NS vorticity but digs it southward a bit too late. Still a minor improvement at the surface and a trend towards the Euro.

Chance of a light event for Saturday is still alive

Tick the right way? Almost some interaction between streams. Tries to get some precip more north

Don’t let the door hit you in the ass.

Damn straight. Ill take a half inch any day. The .2” i got this morning excited me.

Makes more sense to me.

We're getting some 'giga' movements from the ens means at large scales. It's sort of yawing between a -EPO and a -EPO/+PNA hybrid. The -EPO version is the giant warmup ... The operational GFS had a hard-on and went a bit ludicrously extreme at 12z. The latter type is colder, faster pattern change but at varying speed/unknown. Not sure really which way to go with that. Like I said this morning and still maintain, we really need to get through this week's demolition of the N. Pacific ridge before we can really truly stop getting head-gamed.

Just curious, what have been your seasonal totals past seasons? Not many posters in the valleys west of the spine. I think myself, you and maybe 1 or two up in NVT maybe also.

GFS is blah. Gets precip up to Southern MD and away she goes (east)

Seems more like after the 10th or so.

The ensemble read off the EPS is a winter storm of sorts signal around 14th followed by a cold intrusion. Obviously at 2 weeks lead that highly subject to change - but the 12z read...

A snow squall associated with an Arctic cold front brought Central Park its first measurable New Year's Day snowfall since 1987. In the wake of the frontal passage, a series of cold days lies ahead. The first week of January could have a mean temperature below 30° in New York City. If that happends, it would be the coldest opening week of January since 2018. The only years since 2000 with a sub-30° mean temperature for the opening week of January were 2001, 2010, 2014 and 2018. Milder weather could develop on or around January 7th. The milder period appears likely to last for about a week, but there is some uncertainty about its duration. Afterward, conditions could become more favorable for both cold and snowfall, especially if the PNA goes positive. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around December 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +2.39 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.973 today.

With our 7th winter "event" of the season we are now at 12.5" of snow for the seaon to date. This is 175% of normal snow through New Years Day. This is in fact the 17th snowiest start to a winter season here in the philly burbs of Chester County PA. Below are the 36 seasons with at least 10" of snow through New Years Day with the ending snowfall for the entire winter season. There is a high correlation to above normal snowfall with such a relatively "snowy" start to the winter season.

I think we also all took it for granted when we were clipperposting previously that such patterns usually don't have staying power issues because it's inherently a deep winter concept to the vibe-driven amateur. That's half of why we all shit bricks so hard when the snow rug literally melted out from under our feet a few weeks ago.

With our 7th winter "event" of the season we are now at 12.5" of snow for the seaon to date. This is 175% of normal snow through New Years Day. This is in fact the 17th snowiest start to a winter season here in the philly burbs of Chester County PA. Below are the 36 seasons with at least 10" of snow through New Years Day with the ending snowfall for the entire winter season. There is a high correlation to above normal snowfall with such a relatively "snowy" start to the winter season.

Remember my post about the Weeklies a week or so ago?

While waiting for the 18z GFS I looked at all the 12z runs, and only the ICON has the sharp NS shortwave and digs it southward like the Euro, but it isnt quite as sharp, is positively tilted and doesnt generate any real lift up our way. eta- 18z ICON is sharper with the wave but still pos tilted and doesnt induce anything at the surface.

Just in time for your return! You only missed a good squall.

I think that is the first positive feedback I have ever received from you.

Don’t encourage him…

See below to see how snowy this season has been so far....greed is good as a famous actor once said....but a Top 20 start to the winter snow season is not too shabby IMHO!

My son just used the leaf blower to clear driveway, steps, and walk at my parents down in Hackensack.

Nothing of note here in the valley. 0.3” with most of that coming in a burst as the cold front moved through around 5:30 AM. December ended up largely average for my location with 17.5” although I have yet to hit average for an entire season in my seven years here so far. Maybe this will be the first year… Charlotte, VT 44.29°N 73.24°W 2025/26 Season 11/10 5.0 11/11 1.1 11/21 0.2 11/23 0.3 11/28 0.1 11/30 0.2 12/2 4.2 12/4 1.7 12/6 0.5 12/7 2.2 12/10 1.6 12/14 0.1 12/22 0.3 12/23 4.2 12/24 0.7 12/25 0.9 12/26 1.1” Total: 24.4”

You have your head in the right place. "How will we ever recover our Credibility" This event is a long shot and has elevation written all over it. There was a time when a thread would not have been created. This time, after the encouragement of headliners, it was created. American Weather is treading into very dangerous territory.