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I was hoping to see some more consensus with either gfs caving to other guidance, or both sides meeting in the middle. But they could not be further apart. We may have to wait until 0z tonight to see where this is heading.

Sounds like shoveling hell....aching body/back.

Still not sure, but the nam sent me in search of raw bufkit data. I did find that for faw 18z NAM data that the a few hours with sleet but God it was only between 25mb for most and barely a degree above freezing. I'm skeptical. My eyes also hurt from that shit Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Good trends for lights out fellas lol.

Elevation actually doesn't really matter in these types of setups. The surface temps aren't an issue, it's the upper levels that are. Elevation won't really help with that, it's the fact that's he's NW of the metros.

Warnings will go up tomorrow morning per GSP. Ice Storm Warning or Winter Storm Warning remains to be seen. I've got to say the GFS has led the way with the Storm in various ways.

Come on....... you were all in well before you said you were........all in. Weenie

@WxUSAFdid gfs receive an upgrade? It usually sucks at cad. Normally it’d be ramming the primary up into Erie PA by now.

that would match my snowmap

That was a pretty sweet 18z GFS. Better timed phasing and that's why you want to see the coastal take off sooner and not later. It shows what's possible if that can happen. That's all that run really said to me. But at least there's still hints of that happening on any guidance too though. Let's see what the euro's got at 18z.

UK at 54.

By the way that's entering the medium range soon. Crazy how loaded this pattern is.

The NWS graphic with ice total posted above is from their automated site. A similar one was posted last night. Be careful with that. .

This would be rare. No one on the forum gets screwed. That's why it won't happen as depicted here. Would love it if it did though.

For your wish to come true, Euro needs to drop primary quicker.

So do I but damn it do I want to see the GFS get a win here. Just would be so interesting (and on brand) to have it slow down and separate the baja energy a little more each run for it to just wildly swing towards the Euro's depiction all of a sudden within 60 hours.

Lol if anything it’s moving farther from the other model consensus. Will it fold in one dramatic shift? Or will all other guidance bow to its superior predictions!??!?!

I still think elevation is on your side.

The most gorgeous pink skies out rn..nature's heads up!!. It's def coming guys.

Just one more lap, GFS! You can do it!!! So is this a headfake of a headfake...kind of like a double reverse. If it flips back north, this is like a double reverse w/ a halfback pass???

Maybe we do get a compromise, which would still be nice. The floor for this one looks to be 6 inches plus sleet which is a high floor.

That's pretty reserved for DT and looks in line. I hate his start time though.

The gfs is may blow chunks on this storm, but its gonna make up for it by nailing the 2/1 colossal east coast blizzard.

Wouldn't it be awesome if the GFS was the model that was right... I mean it's been very consistent the last bunch of runs.. just sayin

Inflow scarecrow! Ha ha ha ha ha!