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December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread
Daniel Boone replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah, the most amazing imo was Knoxville hitting -24. -27 at my house west of Pennington gap Va. Couple -30 readings and a -32 reported in rural Wise County near Norton as I recall. -
29/18 for the day for DCA
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Speaking of inflated measurements, someone else in Metuchen reported 8.7" vs. my report of 6.7". There's simply no way that's right, as it's an outlier vs. all other county reports (especially when, generally, more snow fell in southern Middlesex than northern) and it's a huge outlier vs. the nearby Edison reports (6.6" and 5.6") and my report of 6.7". Even when I measured on grass, the most I saw was about 7.4" so I can't imagine how someone got 8.7" - and Metuchen is only 1 square mile, so it's not like there is some gradient across town. ...Middlesex County... Metuchen 8.7 in 0945 AM 12/14 Public Plainsboro Township 8.0 in 1100 AM 12/14 Public Cranbury 7.3 in 1045 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter East Brunswick Twp 7.0 in 1045 AM 12/14 COCORAHS Edison 6.6 in 1045 AM 12/14 Newspaper North Brunswick Twp 1.5 W 6.6 in 0426 PM 12/14 COCORAHS Parlin 6.4 in 0100 PM 12/14 Trained Spotter East Brunswick 6.2 in 1100 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter Sayreville 6.0 in 1135 AM 12/14 Public South River 5.8 in 1119 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter Edison 5.6 in 1145 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter
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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
CarlislePaWx replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Amazing what just a 1" coating of fresh snow can do if the skies can clear with very little to no wind. At 12:30am I'm down to 11.1 degrees and continuing to drop. I think that anyone with several inches of solid snowpack will find their temps in the single digits come dawn. I'll bet THV makes it down to zero. Last week my coldest reading was +6.6 degrees F. I think that's breakable. We'll see... Also, I melted down my snowfall, however I missed probably half of the accumulation because I didn't have my gauge outside on my board. I recorded somewhere between 0.8" and 1.0" of snowfall, but all of that only melted down to 0.01" of liquid! So, if you want to go with 80 : 1 SLR, I guess we can...lol. There's no doubt this snow was high ratio, however, I think the highest ratio I've ever officially recorded was around 30:1. -
December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
According to the paper, the Aleutian high contributed to the SSW event on December 30th, 1984. -
December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
Torch Tiger replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
0z gfs la-la land does look quite promising beyond that. there's a hella -NAO, ridge flex Ireland to nearly Baffin Island -
December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread
Golf757075 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
There was a big SSW event that led to the big cold January through early March in December. Very similar to December 2021 when it was real warm and then flipped colder but not as cold as 1984-85. -
December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
Torch Tiger replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
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Looks like I may have leveled off, running between 15.9 and 16.2 last hour. Currently 16.1/11.8 at 11:45 pm. Also have picked up a bit of cloud cover, at least partly cloudy.
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I’ll check now for December. These 9 were solidly -WPO Decembers dominating throughout the entire month: 2013, 2010, 2009, 2005, 1995, 1989, 1980, 1961, and 1956. Of these: 1) Cold in the S Plains? 2013, 2009, 2005, 1989, 1961 2) Near normal S Plains? 2010, 1995 3) Mild S Plains? 1980, 1956 So, strong -WPO Decembers leaned somewhat to the cold side in the S Plains, but only 5 of 9 averaged cold. It looks like this year may end up averaging near normal based on a cold 1st half and mild 2nd half. But we’ll see. PNA for these 9 Decembers: 2013: moderate -PNA 2010: strong -PNA 2009: weak +PNA 2005: strong +PNA 1995: moderate +PNA 1989: moderate +PNA 1980: weak -PNA 1961: strong -PNA 1956: weak -PNA So, PNA for these solidly -WPO Decembers is very mixed.
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This grinch may be weak sauce compared with other years (and certainly 2020). 00Z op GFS CADs NNE and some areas barely get to 40. Surface winds don't look that bad, either. On the 12Z and 18Z GFS, MVL is showing ~6 hours above 40, BML barely cracks 40. The ECMWF spikes both sites to 50 but not for very long. Compare that to the mega grinch: MVL was above 50˚ for 22 hours, and above 40˚ for 37! BML was 22 and 44 hours! At least that year we got to sit outside in t-shirts and let the winds blow he covid around. (Had there been snowpack, the 2015 grinch would have been worse, with temperatures pushing 70˚ in Vermont; but there was nothing to steal.)
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If they win out they win the division.
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Yeh guys keep talking about cold…I really see a lot of up and down
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2025-2026 ENSO
PhiEaglesfan712 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The most obvious ones are the most recent: 2016-17 and 2022-23. In case you forgot, here's what happened the last time a dissipating la nina led into an el nino: -
14.9 Northwest Cecil County
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December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread
submariner replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
There is a desire, for us winter folks, to have this time of year be like winter. I don't rule anything out (I am just in awe of what you guys know and share) because half the time I'm using AI to decipher your posts. However, I'll just say it. A white Christmas is always nice. -
As unlikely as it is, if the Ravens win out, would they win the tiebreaker over the Steelers?
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December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread
beavis1729 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah, that was a crazy period. Chicago was 69F on 12/28/1984, then a few weeks later it hit -27F on 1/20/1985 during one of the greatest arctic outbreaks in modern history. -
December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
During that AH period in 1984, we were cold a few days after it formed, had a light snow event, highs in the 20s and single digit lows. Then the rest of December except for a couple of days, was very warm. We were in the 70s a week after the single digits and back in the 70s a few days after Christmas, with plenty of 60s in between. That continued into early January and the AH finally started breaking down and it flipped cold, then it flipped exceptionally cold. -
pretty large urban/rural splits now with no wind. 27F here and rising.
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Well, as of Dec 13th, the MJO still hasn’t returned to phase 8! It was in 8 only Dec 3rd-7th. Dec 8th-13th have all been in very weak (essentially neutral) phases 5-7. I still think it has a good chance to get back into 8 very soon, but we’ll see:
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that's true - there were easily 4 or 5 games last season that could've gone the other way. But the blow outs this year, just total lack of defense. All the mistakes. Hopefully they can sort it out, because outside of the Caps and the Spirit, DC sports is struggling right now.
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I didn't start keeping records until 1979, but 12/89 was awesome here. -10.8 and 17.1 inches of snow with 25 days of snow OTG!
