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12z suite gonna make us track a system from 10 days out?! Just 40 more runs to go! LOL

Right. And I'm sure Joe wouldn't be shocked if we reel a storm in either after all in a week or two, since he never really recanted his prior optimism in favor of remaining aloof. My point is that the second issues like sun angle and shit become a problem, I'd rather just save our year-to-year pretend climo snowfall luck for next season. If we miraculously manage to mitigate whatever warmup is locked in and we reel in a monster 10-14 days from now, great. Too bad we couldn't get it in December. Normally I'd be here excited for the DABs we've got coming but again, it's completely futile because we're completely resetting next week it seems. I understand this is a banter take but

Amazing what a little wind can do to change the tenor of the outdoor feel... Almost the same temp as yesterday right now, but with a steady 12 mph wind, gusting to 25 mph... The walk around the neighborhood was nowhere near as comfortable as it was yesterday!

Another pleasant sunny day. High 29°

The American Storm @BigJoeBastardi · 42m Models are all over the place on late next week, something I have issued a big storm watch for the NE on Weatherbell based on studying pattern analogs and concluding a blend of 3/29/84,12/10/92,02/09/69 and 02/13/ work best. So the surface map for that gave me this for day 11, New euro went to it. So, like the storm a couple of weeks ago, where using 3 analogs gave a great solution a week out ( not perfect, but dang close), I started looking at this 5 days ago. The question then becomes, DO I HAVE THE RIGHT ANALOGS? But that means I am in charge of the idea, not the models ping ponging me. So you put out the idea and then wait and see if modeling comes to it. But it's not based on the models, it's based on pattern recognition and then doing the work to go back through all those maps and try to get the right package. This is how they did it in the old days, when 4 runs a day of computer models did not force a ping pong match among meteorologists. SO I RELY ON MY SKILL, NOT THE MODEL IN SETTING THIS UP! If you just look at models until a few days before you can get whip sawed, or you simply get on TV and say the models says this or that, and all you are is instead of a forecaster is a model spokesperson. The risk? That you do all this work and are wrong, and it's happened to me many times. But I would rather work and risk than outsource what God gave me. And besides, Bocelli is right in Un Nuovo Giorno: Solo rischiando tu vivrai. Only by risking do you live

Wat https://x.com/ShamsCharania/status/2019119800098963674 https://x.com/ShamsCharania/status/2019119940767556049

Long way out there, but it seems like models are hinting at two potential storm chances coming up: 2/11 and 2/15. Depending on how strong the first wave gets, it could dampen the flow and cause 2/15 to stay suppressed (ala 12z Euro AIFS). Everything will also depend on how strong the confluence holds across New England/southern Canada. Just first look seems like a SWFE would be favored with thump to ice/rain. Expect lots of changes until then

Winds really cranked this afternoon here with a biting feel out there . 25.5

They do realize this is Wake County right?

lol. Just under 2 weeks to go. Lock it in.

Oh, no.... That's the run we chase for 10 days only to never find again.

Currently snowing and 32 degrees.

Everyone I talk to here in the Richmond area keeps saying the same thing. Removing the glaciers from the "snowcrete" has been such a task for so many with driveways and sidewalks. Especially here most storms you see the temperatures quickly get into the upper 30s and 40s after. Last week and into the beginning of this week we barely got above freezing (maybe one or two days), and overnight temperatures barely double digits and single digits a couple of them. That has been the difference.

I haven't seen anyone predicting a +PNA for February, but if so, I would agree that they are woefully misguided.

No please, I’m done with clearing ice jams off the roof and sending my poor heart into overdrive. Let’s put that on the backburner (or shall I say back breaker) for 2027, mmkay?

Todays euro doesn't hit 40F until the 17th

Still waiting on WB maps, but first look seems like EPS is very juicy for Valentines day, and AIFS ens like mid next week a good bit, it's not loading any farther than that though..

Proving that it has zero value beyond warm nose events and that’s it. Just utterly useless for everything else

Half of those are very Steiny here for a d15 QPF total

Yes, us Penguins have a habit of losing games late we shouldn't be losing.

Speaking of OT, big ISLES win last night!

Yeah but that day in the mid 40s is going to feel like 70!

The snow pack will save us! I mean lock the cold air at the surface for freezing rain and power outages.

What I like about next weekend is there’s been a signal for quite a while now. Probably something decent but uncertain and the euro AI got worse, showing a Miller a sliding off the southeast and middle Atlantic coast although a strong system. But I’m also interested in the 10-11th because euro AI got markedly better with that.

It's not nailed down and there may not be one but if there is the timing will be at night