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From DT: THIS WEEK IN WX VIDEO TONIGHT LETS MONGER ABOUT SUNDAY MONDAY POSSIBLE EAST COAST WINTER STORM Just to give you all a clue…..Yesterday and again this morning and again this evening. NOAA/ NWS flew reconnaissance aircraft into the eastern Pacific to get a better sampling of the upper atmosphere and to make up for the loss of data from closure of several key weather stations in the upper planes in Midwest, which used to end up with the balloons to gather information about the atmosphere. The fact that the national weather service had to send out extra planes into the eastern, pacific to gather this data speaks to how badly the overall weather models have performed recently because of the lack of information from the weather stations that have been partially shut down in the upper Midwest. Guess what happened when they flew those planes and gather the extra data? They were a huge changes in what the models are showing is going to happen for Sunday Monday. Full details and discussion tonight on the weather video around 1030pm

RGEM stubbornly cold. wish it had more support

I think the main divergence is in if we can get the coastal to help us out. The 18z Euro shows a solution where we get pretty much no help from the coastal besides aiding in some moisture fetch and instead rely on the H5 dynamics to get any sort of snowfall. Meanwhile, the other camp of the GFS and CMC instead have the coastal prominently help out the H5 max through aiding in lift, moisture transport, and even cold air through the CCB. Is a bit of a egg and chicken game too where a stronger H5 vortmax is more likely to capture/induce a more favorable surface low position.

WB 18Z EURO compared to 12Z total precip.

To go from 12z to 18z on the Euro proves it's just as jumpy as the rest, albeit more conservative with precip year-round.

Yes! We're at a point where there ca't be anymore step backs. It's time for one these to break our way.

It's not done snowing at 105

Feels like the euro is just too fast. A little slower with the energy moving down and across the conus and I think it looks a lot more like the GFS and CMC.

Kuchera

Get rid of all that crap east of main vorticity and we got something.

Zoomed in 18z europe

Good trends, want to see that hold/continue through tomorrow night

Improvement

A big increase from earlier runs.

Euro's a lot of light snow. Needs to be closer to the coast.

Creeping and crawling. Let the tuck begin.

I’d take it but, let’s continue to improve

"Wankum", you've answered your own question I think.

WB 18Z EURO compared to 12Z at 4am Sunday.

Euro operational has the inverted trough too

Wait I’ve seen a map just like this one not too long ago when Outer Banks was burried.

I didn't see AI at first I only saw GFS in your post. This is what I'm saying. Just seems like it's been "welcomed aboard" prematurely especially the GFS AI

Have to say, seeing a near-perfect evolution running one degree south of optimal track at 96h is not really something to complain about by any means.

18z Euro doesn’t give us what we want but it improved quite a bit over 12z at both H5 and the surface. Tonight’s 0z runs will be very interesting.