All Activity

It also goes beyond El Niño. This past winter was a weak La Niña with each month from December to March producing a +10 at some stations in the CONUS. No seasonal model forecast this. So we have a total of 17 months since the 2015-2016 super El Niño increased the baseline temperatures with +10 departures at some CONUS stations. None of the seasonal models forecast these either. Prior to 2015-2016 there were only a few +10 or greater months across the CONUS.These were March 2012 and January 2006. The list below includes the 17 months and the station close to warmest departures during each month. So there were numerous other stations over the+10 during these months. DEC…2015….NYC….+13.3 MAR…2016…MOT….+10.5 JAN…2017….BTV…..+11.0 FEB….2017….ORD….+10.3 FEB…..2018…ATL….+10.6 FEB….2019…MGM….+10.5 JAN….2020…YAM….+9.8 DEC….2021….DFW….+13.2 JAN….2023….DXR….+12.3 FEB….2023…..SSI…..+9.8 DEC….2023….INL…..+15.8 FEB…..2024….FAR…..+17.5 DEC….2024…..LND…..+11.3 DEC….2025….CPR…..+12.1 JAN….2026….RIW……+10.2 FEB…..2026….LND…..+11.3 MAR….2026….PHX…..+12.5

They fell apart before they even got near him

You understand what I did correctly. Yes it would be easy to use the stable portions of the Chesco station data to test the others. That's essentially what NCEI does (and other groups). The NCEI adjustments are based on raw temperature data not station information. NCEI also uses data from outside of Chester County to determine Chesco bias adjustments, taking advantage of the fact that weather data is correlated over hundreds of miles. That's one of the reasons I found your Coatesville analysis interesting. The NCEI adjustments match the detailed site information you developed very well; and. for the periods where your site information was more complete and accurate than NCDCs, the match between the site info and the bias adjustments improved. Interesting that the West Chester site has data from before 1894. Can you obtain the data?

DIT storms fell apart at my doorstep, not a drop; however a great light show.

I will once we get closer to winter .

Looked like it skipped you? Rain anyways. Big cluster offshore right now. The skip was well modeled.

Got 1.31" from yesterday's storms. The rain was incredibly intense at times in that afternoon storm. Windshield wipers on high speed couldn't keep up. I got the truck parked before the worst hit (I still got soaked going from the truck to the shop and then the car, though), but the ride home in the car was intense with the rain and the flooded roads.

Wild afternoon in Nanuet. Started off as a little blip on the radar and quickly got organized and went straight nuclear. Had two major gust of wind, right at the beginning of the storm and then during a secondary blow up of storms. Had marble/dime sized hail. It was intense for a few minutes. Some of the craziest Lightning I can remember. Been living up here 4 years and that’s the first time losing powet I can remember. Luckily it was only out for an hour and change.

I once saw a young woman on the Knife's Edge on the summit of Katahdin; there had been a few rumbles of thunder; and she was standing on top of a rock; her friends looking up at her blond tresses writhing about in the charged electrical environment. I could confirm this was a real phenomenon because my boots were sounding out a weird squelching static sound as I navigated the treacherous path. Luckily, this did not escalate as it dangerously could have-- just a heavy downpour to help wash our way back down the mountain.

Yeah, that was the case in Cleveland as well. I think I read 22”, but unfortunately no official snowfall records at that time. The official records only note 1.85” of liquid equivalent. The article below is probably an exaggeration (20” in 3 hours), but I did read elsewhere there were insane rates… however, if memory serves, it was more like 8” in 2 or 3 hours.

A notable exception was the Labor Day (09/07/98) squall line. That thing was a beast all the way from NJ through eastern Suffolk.

LI severe storms come from the north in almost all cases, the other ones being stray storms on the seabreeze boundary that can sometimes blow up around Mineola/Westbury. Every now and again severe can reach western Nassau if conditions are right but for Suffolk it’s game over. Long Beach/Rockaway has been hit a couple times recently by bowing out storms coming east from NJ but they die once they reach Jones Beach.

Bullshit its very very true. Hair sticks up and gives you a tingling feeling, you become a negative

The lightning display up North seen from SRI Beach was top notch stuff

Absolutely gorgeous sea breeze at the beach.