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Models hinting at a rainy cutoff low this week. Details as to where the heaviest convection focuses will have to wait. Since the timing of how soon the upper low cuts off and captures the surface low vary from model to model.

Was just about to post this. Don’t expect this, although NAM had this on and off the other day. My friend might be pissed since we left his boat out without the cover…

Since you’re tracking other states than where you live for daily and monthly temps..could you check Boise, Idaho and Santa Fe , NM and post please ?

53° / 51° another cool start to what it looks like a beautiful day. Mild up beginning the second week of August? Hartford now stands at 0.4 above average for the month. What happened to the hottest month ever?

Rain in OC this am. Short term models last night were too far south with the rain.

OK lets see what the raw data says. After all bias adjustments are based solely on raw data. If the the steel mill impacted the Coatesville station it would be reflected in the raw data and in the NCEI bias adjustment. However raw data from Coatesville and West Chester clearly clearly shows that station changes drive the Coatesville bias adjustments not the steel mill. Below is a plot of Coatesville 1SW minus West Chester and the Coatesville bias adjustment (right axis). A station change at either Coatesville or West Chester causes a sudden change in relative temperature of Coatesville and West Chester. While a growing steel mill or an urban heat island in one of the towns would cause a gradual change in the difference between the two stations. There are many large sharp changes in Coatesville's temperature relative to West Chester. These are all station changes. There is no indication of a gradual long-term trend so a large change in the steel mill impact can be ruled out. Station changes are the primary cause of Coatesville's (and West Chester's) cooling. The Coatesville bias adjustment (right axis) tracks the raw temperature data at Coatesville and West Chester closely, except when West Chester had station changes: 1915, the 1920s, the 1960s and with the West Chester move in 1970. Both stations start out at about the same temperature in the 1890s. Between 1894 and the 1960s, most of the chart movement is due to Coatesville station changes as West Chester experienced relatively minor station changes. After 1920 Coatesville cools relative to West Chester. The change is anything but gradual with several large swings due to station changes. From the late 1940s to the late 1950s Coatesville is 2F cooler than West Chester. The rural Doe Run Road site is the coolest Coatesville station location. Coatesville warms by roughly 0.5F around 1960. After 1960 the main station changes are at West Chester, ending in the 1970 move which cools West Chester to down Coatesville's level. Note that station changes can be warming or cooling, but on balance both stations cooled significantly over the period due to station changes. This exercise is another feather in NCEI's cap. The Coatesville and West Chester raw data shows that bias adjustments are needed and accurate in Chester County. No surprise, biasing inconsistency in the Chesco COOP raw data and NCEI's good performance in separating weather from station changes has already been documented extensively in this thread.

54 degrees this morning. Enjoy the weekend!

The only thing I disagreed with was taking Rogers out at 88 pitches. But to be fair...Garcia didn't make a bad pitch; it landed way below the zone and the dude somehow golfed it. But that only tied the game; the blown opportunity in the 9th, stupid error in the 10th. Core issues once again that have been going on before this year, smh

Getting intrigued for Monday.

Warm how? Am I going to need an air conditioner?

Most strong Ninos produce moisture,as to what happens this winter is surely uncertain,i still think NOV could dry out,severe Dec cold Jan and Feb,March are crap shots,but probably AN,thats just my opinion and surely might not be right

Hearing the first katydids of the summer.

The low of 51 yesterday was the first time PIT has been below 54 in July since 2014. It got below 54 at least once every single July from 1976-2003.

That Andrej Flis guy from severe weenie EU is full of shit again....only valid piece of analysis on that post is the El Niño favoring SSW over La Niña and the EURO blocking signal. I go in depth on his selective pruning of information at the end of my blog...should post tomorrow night.

Yet another solid 500 trough for July, This time actuality cuts-off and is slow to move out, so looks like Mon-Wed tstms each day in some form, and maybe Thu if the ECMWF is right. Tue appears the best for svr wx currently. GFS and ECMWF don't hesitate to replace this 500 low w/ another one just beyond week, so active times ahead it seems.

Yes, I thought of the terms used for CAPE here, but that's what is in literature. Maybe "wide" and "narrow" CAPE is better!

Maybe we will get a break with clouds upcoming,be cool to watch https://www.amsmeteors.org/meteor-showers/meteor-shower-calendar/#Perseids

I love your thinking, snowman! I want tons of rain! I want transport of moisture from the deep tropics, too! This is a monster Nino! I want monster rains this autumn and winter and in Spring 2027!

Riding any models with the wild SSW storm motions

"Sub 990 lows don't go quietly into the night." @Rainshadow

Oh I bet definitely a perfect view .

Very strong signal for a warm east this December….El Niño/+QBO has been a slam dunk for that since 1979. And I would be shocked if the southwest isn’t wet this winter given the super Nino/++PMM combo that really juices the STJ

Tonight's game is on Albernaz. Not ready for prime time

Looking forward to seeing a frontlit anvil on eastern horizon at sunset.