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Right now before any mix bag, we have had ,20" rain yesterday and getting heavy rain now and actually had some thunder. Scared the dogs with the heavy thunderstorm.

There we go, my best storms bring rain to the Cape. Too bad it's the SREFS.

You can see on the 06z GFS, it shifted the 25"ish amounts NE into central NJ....def some LBNE trends.

Yep same here. Fun start to the day

Over .5" here and still mod/hvy rain. 37f and miserable.

man if the EPS looked like that, we'd be golden

I suspect my Nws will be changing after 12z runs, but we'll see. It does get surprisingly cold in these parts compared to my old digs in Northern Anne Arundel County.

At the surface yes they’re different but they’re really similar at 500 mb.

NAM uses NMB physics per met on our discord, wonder if see a 12z NAMMING with how that one member looks

I got woken up by the sound of heavy rain. I went to go see and just after I opened the door I saw a flash of light. I thought to myself “no, can’t be” then boom. Yep! What a surprise that is!

You’re making the right choice. Smart call. We’ve all seen wayyyy more situations with this level of uncertainty fail or underwhelm. That said…if the Euro comes in with 2 feet while you’re 30k feet up over Eastern Tennessee today, we’ll all be expecting you back tonight, lol

Thunder was LOUD last night. Picked up about .5" of rain with it too.

So is it still early for a final outcome of this storm, were within about 50 or so hours of the storm?

I'll take a 3/17 here all day long, that was a great storm here anyway.

Snow fall maps are waste, with temps, rain, wet ground. You need to keep expectations down. @mitchnick nws has the right idea 1-3" if your lucky on grass areas. Higher elevation may see more. The rain will be a welcoming sight for water tables. I like snow like everyone else and wouldn't mind a government delay opening.

What are those two sref models

Maybe you'll get 32"...

It's right up the top of the list with the AARP, WRF and Icon

Looks just like the 06z GEFS

still about 36-48 hours to onset, don't know if this can come any further NW or N, but it can still trend back SE, let's hope we get consistent runs from here on to go time.

Even if we milk a few tenths out of this CAD, it’ll still be an impressive month for ORD. https://www.weather.gov/lot/chicago_feb_snow_rankings?utm_source=chatgpt.com .

usually sucks

We are bring this one home!!!

No