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December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
The 12z Euro essentially has an anafront at the end of its run. The front isn't as north/south as we would want it, but it is good that is still showing. I think we incredible return flow in front of it - likely record highs and sever. Then that baby pushes through and things freeze solid. Let's see if that hypothesis holds. -
12/3 Snow/Sleet/Mix Bag of Everything Discussion/OBS
Hurricane Agnes replied to Mikeymac5306's topic in Philadelphia Region
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12/3 Snow/Sleet/Mix Bag of Everything Discussion/OBS
Birds~69 replied to Mikeymac5306's topic in Philadelphia Region
Noticed last night in front of the liquor store it was heavily doused. Super max as in 'Don't sue us'... -
Central PA Fall Discussions and Obs
Itstrainingtime replied to ChescoWx's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Yes indeed! -
finally getting going here with mod-heavy snow. 2.75" at 1pm. took that measurement on a wooden pallet in the open so probably an accurate measurement.
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There is no way I am going over to rain. Maybe mix but not rain. BDL is still 28F with a N wind. Waiting for 1:00 obv from CEF but they were 28F with N wind last hour. I am not expecting probably 6-8" here. Take em up, take em up, taken up up
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Kick-Off '25-'26 Winter Storm Obs
CT Valley Snowman replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Just got back from staying overnight in Franklin, Ma after going to the Pats game last night. It was a slow go on the Pike with several spinouts and accidents. You could see the warm air surge more pronounced near Sturbridge where there was less snow and temps were a bit warmer around to 30-31. Traveling west, temps started to drop down to about 28 as we descended down into the valley and snowfall increased. Looks like there's a couple of inches here in Enfield although rates are pretty light at the moment. -
This is the event the analogs had me chirping about since Thanksgiving. After yet Another wobbly model output right up to the last minute(remember the dryness insertion) I’ll just follow analogs. Another good historical opportunity 12/20-12/21 anytime anything goes under us we don’t have the temp issue and it’s only a matter of qpf so this one has and does look real good
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Central PA Fall Discussions and Obs
2001kx replied to ChescoWx's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
4" here now but was prob closer to 4.5" - 5" earlier. -
Ehh, my half inch was optimistic. lol Coupla tenths at best. The rain softened it right up so it should melt off the warm ground pretty quickly right? I don't feel like pushing the shovel so I'm going with it.
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Just kidding, he's getting around great, looks to be having fun.
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Central PA Fall Discussions and Obs
canderson replied to ChescoWx's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
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HRRR shows me at 10 inches, we'll see
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30/27 -SN continues. Total accumulation 1.1" in North Salem NH. Sadly, this is now the most significant December snowfall since I moved to this location in 2022. Really underscores how these last few seasons have really struggled to get started, even in southern NH. This is a nice change.
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Central PA Fall Discussions and Obs
GrandmasterB replied to ChescoWx's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
All good! It’s really a blend of models in the forecast and the GFS was way too aggressive on snow for the southern parts of York/Lanco. It didn’t help that the Euro bled north run after run. I don’t think the Euro or GFS performed all that well for this event from just 72 hours out. I just hope we get paid back with a north trend when we need it! -
Just regular tires. When we picked up the chair we asked how those tires would handle the snow...they said they were designed to handle snow!
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Mix line is definitely making some progress over western CT. I should be mixing in not long.
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Go ahead
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You put snow tires on for him?
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R**n ahh well, that was fun. Wonder if it rains enough to wash the crud out of the driveway?
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Moderate snow now. 1.50” Temperature holding steady at 28°.
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it's your storm, man. you have the honors.
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I'm guessing those areas over my head mean something good.
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Central PA Fall Discussions and Obs
Boreal replied to ChescoWx's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Well - like many, it started out as 4-6, and was gradually reduced to 1-2 (per NWS). Decent, quick event. -
temps cooling off, down to 30.0 dropped 0.7 past 30 mins
