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aluminum sheet metal and bondo

Yeah folks is cocked in some places tonight

Random map with no location? Looks great down here on the shoreline the next 10 days with Ryan going 0% for rain and zero cold in sight.

First of all that drought talk was way overblown. l admit we had a wonderful drought in late 2024 October 2024 was my favorite October of all time. Last year was NOT a drought. I dont subscribe to inflated averages for rain any more than I do for snow. Last year we had the ideal amount of rain for fall foliage. This year we had way too much. What the flood mongers and raininistas won't tell you is that TOO MUCH RAIN IS JUST AS BAD FOR FALL FOLIAGE AS TOO LITTLE RAIN. It's simple science extra water dilutes the color producing chemicals in the leaves and thats why you see muted colors. It's the same reason that drier years produce far better and vintage wines. If we had had this nice dry period a month ago the story would have been different, the fall foliage season would have been much better. Same 29 here. 80 would be crazy warm. 70s is not that warm. 29 was the most common low. 29 here so in between you and Walpack. Mount Pocono Don? Here are my lows across four sensors: 28.8, 29.1, 29.3 and 29.9 ilI'll say the low was 29 here. The high was 58. Don what's the average first 20s low here? Also do you remember what year it was between 2014 and 2019 I remember it was in the teens here with snow squalls around here all day that covered the back deck on or even just before October 20th and even JFK reached freezing on that morning and some reporting stations on the south shore of Nassau County were as low as 28? It was either on a Saturday or Sunday. It would be interesting to see if secind story sensors recorded higher temperatures than first story sensors. We could go through the end of the month without any rain shades of October 2024 1878 storm was that the Saxby Gale? Where did it make landfall? Note how warm it was around this time in 2001 and how that winter turned out. But it was record cold around this time in 1969 and that winter wasnt snowy either. Same 29 low here but the high was 58 here.

He’s talking about a frost. He’ll frost by T-Giving imo.

It doesn’t matter…11/26 is very far away in regards to any sort of weather modeling.

Ensembles aren’t great for cold but it can change. Nino’s typically struggle early on as a baseline too. Not trying to add to the fire, but I do agree with you that getting anything sustained below normal is going to be a big uphill battle this November. Nothing about this screams that Canada is loading up with cold.

Not really rainy, looks more like misery mist for days. Prequel for winter??

Fiberglass?

What's this shyte? November didn't get the memo that every day is supposed to be bright and sunny.

models are likely exaggerating like they typically do this far out today was superb weather, prepped the antique honda and ready for paint tomorrow

Rain

Oh wait…do we lock in silly maps at 384 hrs that barely get us to the end of the first week of Novi…I’ll believe it a month and 3 days from now, when on T-Giving your chowing your peppers still.

Have you seen the modeling for Nov?

Your average 32 frost in Taunton is 10/19….we’ve been below that a few times already. Average first frost for BDL is 10/14…so we right on track. Don’t know about your mulch beds?

Okay, We have been in an overarching dry pattern since 2023 with only brief periods of respite regardless of ENSO state. This year in particular there is a deficit throughout the region, with DCA having one of over 6 inches. That's in spite of the precip events over the last couple months which have since ceased. This is why I'm harping on the pattern change being can kicked, while the growing season may be over this is still a vital window to build up the groundwater and refill the reservoirs. Need I remind you that the Baltimore metro water supply has to dip into the Susquehanna for the fact that Loch Raven is too low. Deficits carry over too and if we look at where things stand since 2023 the long term deficit is as high as 20 inches in some spots. We're going to need as much precip as we can get over the next 6 months or we could very well be right back in a widespread drought come Summer, especially if the forecasts of next year being a niña come to pass. The more the niño kicking in gets pushed back the less likely we are to fully turn the corner on the drought. Care to disagree?

Normal exactly.

That won’t happen….but then again…you’re the new tropics of SNE, so ? Maybe you can donate your veggies to the local bread for life for T-Giving this year, to ensure fresh crops for the Thanksgiving Harvest!

Not here…we right on track.

We just went through this last year, and the year before in the late autumn early winter. Just wanna make it clear, these early PV irregularities are are not related to SSW events.

When is it going to be your turn to make a post that actually adds some value?

I am beginning to think this Nino isn't going to behave like an expected Nino.

Blue sky like every single day has that ever happened before