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  2. roardog
    Beating that record is not a slam dunk yet then.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, true....I think most consider that a tacit point given the audience we are dealing with, but noted, nonetheless.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    On average over the course of a season, probably, but you are never going to entirely eliminate any degree of seasonal variation as a byproduct of alternate forcing mechanisms...especially in this modern era of being surrounded by heat sinks.
  5. LongBeachSurfFreak
    No, I got it. I should have been more clear I guess and directed in general. I was more referencing the whole nature of the discussion in this thread. Obviously there is great analysis of the broader El Niño. But human nature includes some imby when it comes to snow specifically. So a guy in Michigan and a guy in New England (again no one in particular) have a near zero chance of being shutout. At that latitude there is wiggle room. Down here where since the early 90s we have had huge swings in totals year over year (50” one year then 10” the next) it’s a precarious situation. It’s not a zero chance nyc sees its first ever shutout with this event. .
  6. LakePaste25
    Makes sense. When we actually do get the ENSO climo, defaulting to ENSO means it will end up correct.
  7. mitchnick
    If this is the strongest Niño we know of, wouldn't it increase the odds of a "default Niño " actually occurring as depicted on seasonal modeling? I'm not saying I know that answer, but it seems logical.
  8. wncsnow
    34 with more frost
  9. MacChump
    good call
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    If NYC doesn't get more snowfall during the coming season than they did in 1997-1998, then I'll hand my site over to @MJO812and dissapear.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    You missed my point...I was referencing amounts relative to average. I understand my climo...I wasn't assessing the possibility of being "shutout"...
  12. Maggie Valley Steve
    Another frosty morning in the Valley.
  13. Brian5671
    Nothing canceled here-we had it in 2020-but people did firepits at the end of driveways with a bowl of candy-no contact...seems like the firepit tradition has hung on ever since
  14. bluewave
    February 2025 was the exception when the Southeast Ridge verified much stronger right around storm time leading to the record snows ending up near Toronto.
  15. WinterWolf
    For sure.
  16. kdxken
    Awesome!
  17. LakePaste25
    Yeah they had this problem the last 2 winters. Every week 4 map defaulted to a -PNA and SE ridge.
  18. Brewbeer
    back in the day of the Killington Peak double chair (90s), I can remember skiing in the morning at the top of the mountain on Columbus Day weekend, with re-loading at the mid-station; and then when the mid station ski line got too long, download to the base, grab the mountain bike, and headed back up the double
  19. LongBeachSurfFreak
    That’s why we have regional forums for regular weather discussion. You’re location averages double the amount of snow as urban coastal NYC. So I have no doubt you’re not getting shut out. 97/98 came as close to being NYCs first shutout as you can get. In fact the only 1”+ event fell during the spring and melted in hours. .
  20. psv88
    43.7
  21. Brewbeer
    just get a chain saw and go to work - no need to wait for "that" storm IMO, any tree that can fall on your house and cause enough damage to results in an insurance claim needs to go don't get me wrong, I love trees and have hundreds on my property, I just don't love the tall ones anywhere near the house
  22. bluewave
    It will be interesting to see if the new PBC EPS weeklies actually can do better than just defaulting to climatology after 15 days.
  23. NEG NAO
    2011 wasn't cancelled here 2020 was for covid
  24. PhiEaglesfan712
    Halloween getting cancelled in 2011 and 2012 was perfect timing for me, as I was in my final 2 years of college at Drexel and not a kid. I really despise when college students go all out for Halloween, but I feel bad for the kids that missed out on 2 Halloweens in a row.
  25. stadiumwave
    Appreciate the research!
  26. GaWx
    The most similar that I found to what the Euro Weeklies are forecasting late Oct-late Nov were 2016-7, 2009-10, and 1979-80 with the last two being El Niños: 2016 La Niña: similar late Oct/early Nov though late Nov weaker 2009 El Niño: not as weak late Oct/early Nov and weaker mid Nov vs 2026 (dip ~2 weeks later than 2026) 1979 El Niño: not as weak late Oct but early to mid Nov similar to 2026 although late Nov much weaker vs 2026
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