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Look at the STLR for my neck of the woods! Snow to liquid ratios will be at or above the climo normals in the 13-17:1 range from south to north across the forecast area. The precipitation efficiency will be the best in the southern most zones based on the latest hi resolution and short range guidance, as the best dendritic growth zone will be higher across the northern zones. All said, a widespread moderate to locally heavy snow event is expected over the forecast area. .

There’s gonna be some strong bands in this because of how strong the fronto is….esp in western areas. It starts to weaken pretty fast once it crosses central areas but there’s still enough to produce decent snows. But further west it could pound at 2” per hour for a time. I think most of SNE will reach advisory snows…the question is how far northeast can the warning snows reach. I feel like right now it’s prob like a PSF-WST line…but inching that another 25 miles or so makes a big difference in affecting a lot more people (you start to include ORH and some of the towns east of there.)

Ok so maybe a dumb question here from somebody not quite as versed as others…but if the S/W energy is hanging back and consolidating the hast 12 hrs…wouldn’t that be a small sign that the system is not weakening/attenuating, but rather showing signs of the opposite? Or am I completely not understanding .

They increased it for most if not all of the immediate metro areas

Glad DT brings us back to reality.

More from CTP An impactful winter system is expected to impact central Pennsylvania on Boxing Day (Friday) with a wintry mix in play for the entire forecast area as a shortwave trough and low pressure associated with this feature currently stationed over the Midwest approach the region. Ahead of this system, departing high pressure has allowed for some clearing with a shallow cold air wedge beginning for form on the eastern periphery of the Appalachians, setting up a cold air damming (CAD) set up ahead of the precipitation. Given this signal, have trended temperatures throughout the entire near-term below NBM guidance given that there will be impact on precipitation types as temperatures generally range in the mid-to-upper 20s across the area as precipitation begins across the region. Recent model soundings continue to outline an elevated warm nose across western Pennsylvania, which continues to outline this area for the highest freezing rain potential with this system in the areas where an Ice Storm Warning remains in effect. The bulk of model guidance continues to outline freezing rain continuing throughout much of the event across the Laurels and portions of northwestern Pennsylvania, with the best timing for significant icing coming between 18Z-00Z (1pm-7pm EST) with some sleet beginning to mix in during this timeframe. Minimal changes to the forecast in this area of the CWA with this forecast cycle, thus the Ice Storm Warning remains in good shape moving forward. Further east, there recent HREF model guidance continues to outline the central third of the forecast area for sleet potential at onset with areas north/east of I-80/US-15 likely experiencing a brief window of snow before transitioning to sleet after 18Z (1pm EST). Sleet/snow accumulations generally range between below an inch for the southwestern two-thirds of the forecast area with recent NBM/HREF model guidance bringing a slight increase in snowfall totals across the eastern periphery of the forecast area, where 1-2" of storm-total snowfall is expected. Winter Weather Advisory remains unchanged this cycle; however, quicker movement of the system could promote the bulk of precipitation tapering off across the forecast area shortly after midnight Friday night.

NWS increased my totals overnight from 4-8 to 5-9

CTP is on their game this morning. NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Precipitation enters west-central Pennsylvania slightly after sunrise, with a mix of freezing rain and sleet being the predominant precipitation type at onset. - Wintry mix expands across all of central Pennsylvania during the morning hours, continuing through the evening hours. - Prolonged threat for freezing rain on Friday brings the highest ice accumulation across western Pennsylvania, where an Ice Storm Warning is in effect. - Sleet/snow accumulations across the rest of central Pennsylvania will bring slick conditions for those traveling on Friday, where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect.

At this point I'd be afraid to go over 5" for NYC Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Nice to point out that s/w energy Brian. I’ve seen that hanging back and consolidating over the last 12-24hrs.

Hopefully more snow than ice. Snow/sleet is very disruptive compared to just snow and it's a huge pain to clean up. Hopefully timing is after rush hour

This forecast is wayyyyyyyyyyy off for CTP area at least! Wow, they are truly delusional & living in fantasy land!

Yeah it’s going to be good, but we’re kinda trying to catch a falling knife. Conditions were aligned nearly perfectly to bring this “north trend” (for days we knew the scale of the WAA meant the models overcorrected south to some extent) and while that’s great it’s shredding as it goes east. Most look to be just close enough while it’s still dynamic to cash in but there are definitely still risks the further north and east you are.

Temperature departures like this is something you see in a +ENSO or +PDO season, not a -ENSO/-PDO/-IOD. There is definitely going to be a pattern change in January. At a minimum, either the Western US will turn cold or the Eastern US will turn warm.

Columbia, east side: 5:45am 31.1° 6:45am 30.2° 7:45am 30.1° and overcast now

For fun, my point estimate for Central Park is 5.8" with a general 4"-8" in and around the City.

Yeah that’s RH and wind streamlines at 700. The shading is RH…blue >95%. But you can see where those streamlines all converge in an axis NW-SE through New England where that light QPF hangs on. I could post the vorticity too and you’d see a max punching through here. Older runs were a little more flat and diffuse with shortwave energy.

Timing will tell but I dont believe we get hurt much by sleet up here, if we do it’s after the heaviest rates.

I am falling in sweet sublime love with this stuff all over again! It's 642am Texas time, and the guys in the Woolly Lot are struggling with deep snow and torrential snowfall and strong winds and between their snowblowing efforts and that damn wind and super heavy snow (more brobdingnagian radar elements are slamming HARD right into Mammoth again!) it is a total milkshake froth!! I love this stuff as you can feel the desperation emanating from the crew as they struggle with WAAAAAAAAAY too much snow on the Woolly Lot! They waited too fucking long and now the storm is winning, and winning BIG! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam I am also blasting the Beatles at the same time lol!

Well, it's not coming up from the south and running west of us....it's a northern stream storm that rides east through the lakes, closes off, and then hits the confluence, turns se and begins to fall apart.

I was thinking that or just a clipper on a bit of HGH. Hoping we can see some more positive trends for us further east today. I fell NY over to WCT are locked in. My other feature to keep an eye on is the linger lighter stuff as the low exits east. We have an easterly fetch to the winds that may give coastal areas lingering OES fluff.

27.3/18 Worthington Valley

The great ice storm of 2025

NWFE…? Lol. Which is a SWFE in reverse. But similar idea..just from a different direction…and reverse the warm air winning out as you said, and replace it with the cold winning.