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That'll be right on my doorstep. We'll see what it does. Still looking forward to a big 12" here.

There is much to suggest Boston is getting a burial, lotta maxes out that way

On cold calm nights 747 freighters departing ohare will climb overhead at 20,000+ feet and sound like rockets. On a normal summer night you can barely hear them

The FV3 RRFS is also going bonkers with the freezing rain. I *think* it's way, way overdone and favor the sleet bomb idea of the NAM, but this will have to watched closely tomorrow.

I agree, 8 to 10 inches before mixing and 1 or 2 inches of sleet on top is my thinking for me

Smells like rain. 15/-2

AI GFS is a bomb cyclone for the feb 1-2. So close to a big hit here but scoots NE just under the region grazing us. On to the operational gfs

9" - 13" for most of NYC Metro looks on track...12Z GFS looks really nice. MECS incoming...

the hype on this storm was just stupid. It was talked about 8 days before. 8 days model runs should never seep into the public. 4 days is when they should get the heads up and it was clear 4 days ago there could be issues with this storm. Thats where the starting point should have been. Add in Mt Holly going nutso hugging that stupid NBM model to its base and putting out irresponsible 12-18 inch maps that only were supported by the GFS and then blatently telling us in discos that sleet was a very low possibility. I have no idea who is in charge of Mt Holly but they totally screwed the pooch with hype and disco instead of taking a pratical approach giving both sides of the coin. Even yesterday they refused to budge with snow maps of 14 inches as likely amounts for most of NJ. I am sorry to be so harsh but somebody has to. This will be an impactful storm dumping 4 to perhaps as much as a 15 inches in northern NJ and 1-2 inches of sleet added to 4-8 inches of snow is impactful but its not something we have not seen before. Its a Sunday. It will thump heavy snow for 6 hours and then turn to pingers of varying intensity til midnight. Schools will be closed on Monday and everyone will have the opportunity to dig out by afternoon and hit the grocery store again. The real story will be the glacier deep freeze for the next 2-3 weeks.

Time to break out the thongs and banana hammocks really.

Dtx thinking 4-6" here. Could have close to a foot of powder on the ground Monday morning!

Looks like this thing has went from 2” QPF on all models for 7 straight days to 0.2”. This has absolute bust written all over it. The long range models have proven to be pure trash until 12 hours out.

All I'm saying is that it could always be worse. There's beem quite a bit of quibbling over the exact total amounts, but at least folks in this sub are going to have an all-snow event regardless (and for some, their biggest in a long while).

From what I’m seeing my call is still 6-10” for nyc/LI. 6” if sleet comes in earlier 8-10” if later. I believe we will all still a ferocious thump of heavy snow and with rates 1-2” possibly 3” an hour that can pile up quickly

It's not even that cold anymore...up to 14

This’ll be fun. Just not what we wanted. Would love 5” of snow and I’ll keep that as my O/U barring a really seismic shift at 18z. Kinda want to drop it to 3” snow but maybe I’m a total downer.

This isn’t only a safe space for snow addicts, it’s a science discussion forum. The only posts that annoy me on AWX is stuff like this, IMHO has zero business here.

Expected that to be the Case. Hopefully we get lucky with a Northern Stream Disturbance or two. Maybe eek out a few inches from those.

Might not mean much but some Places holding on longer down south

Problem I'm seeing on all the worst modeling is that the primary is in TN, the models show weak low pressure off the coast, but a refusal of the primary to die and transfer it's energy to the coastal. Instead, the primary survives, pumping in warm air aloft as it slowly moves east, and once it makes to the coast it dumps on ENE and our precip has shut off.

AIGFS does have the coastal next weekend but... it is a rainer lol. Not that I put any stock in the progression at this range but could you imagine getting a perfect track coastal with this cold air and then it's rain? I shudder to think about the forum's psyche in that hypothetical. Anyway, everyone get ready to track the late week miniclipper come tomorrow.

Opinions and takes are so varied this morning it’s hard to keep up. If this truly busts on the low side, I’ll be grateful. But the public reaction in NC/SC would not be good.

Minus nam and rrfs the short term models look like this

I stocked up like the euro was the only model out there while praying things ended up like the gfs was the only model out there