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Tomorrow is dung

If you just toggle all the op runs on TT it's pretty crazy the agreement for low position around 138 hours.

The one tomorrow? Doesn't look great...

Looks like NYC is screwed.

I think most of us will be okay with that! Btw.... Where are you these days, you in Connecticut and New York?

one at a time -lol

Wow... Looking at the CMC and the GFS 12z runs really gives more confidence in what we might see Sunday, Monday time frame. I'm starting to feel this one. Let's see what the Euro does and just a little bit

Yeah our snowpack finally went to 0 yesterday. I was actually surprised at how long it held on with the sun and mild temps. Starting to get interested in the system this coming weekend. The models other than the Euro are looking pretty promising.

The GFS solution is odd.. It's as though it is too intense. It's highly contracted in all quadrants, very annular and focused internally to the axis of the cyclone. If you saw any one of those D8 GFS September hurricanes running parallel to the EC, it would like like that at PGF layout. I guess on the east side it does open up some. But it's like it's overly responsive to forcing very early in the total wave space, and so it then preferences that early location and is thus also overly - if perhaps erroneously - nucleated there. That said, even if so ... that surface solution is within an envelope of acceptable error. It could reposition on the next run ... 50 or even 100 my NW of this run's fix, and still be in said envelope of acceptable error. If we get to within 30 or so hours and all this is still dosing drips like this...then we'll discuss whether it will be idiosyncratically positioning, relative to the deep layer structures, with more confidence as to where.

Anyone have the kuchie for the Ukie?

And its right next to February 20th! Storms always go well near that date and never fall apart within four days!

Gfs has another snow event after this weekend

Looping h5 conus, the bigger concern would be a later or sloppier phase vs lbsw imo. EMA is in a great spot.

The mean temperatures for those winters were: 1995-1996: 32.2° 2003-2004: 32.4° 2010-2011: 32.7° 2013-2014: 33.0° Finally, the reference to the last winter with a mean temperature of 32° or below should be to 2014-15, as shown in past posts. Apologies for the error.

Remarkable consensus 5+ days out. The kind you really wish happened 24+ hours out instead because so much can go wrong. Ensembles will be key right now however getting the CMC on board is huge along with AI models which have been doing great.

Yep. Then it goes full on historic blizzard with a deep freeze right after. If it’s correct (big IF), it would totally shut down and cripple NYC for days, if not a week

Its already

Even if its only half of what most of the models are showing now its still going to be at least a SECS or MECS in many areas

Realistically we got ~7-8 weeks left were we all can see snow chances (up to the first weekend in April like the last two years)... Regardless about to be a very busy two weeks Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

It's our last chance...just gonna roll the dice and then root for spring if nothing else pops up soon after.

Yeah, the further south you went, the more disappointing the storm was. Amazing how the snow was pretty much all in the first 10 days. The pattern totally flipped in March, and of course, we had record warm temperatures during the entire spring and summer.

Daytime Miller B in late Feb with a trash heap antecedent airmass? ALL IN

Social media hysteria will commence shortly.