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Models have an Aleutian low, and somewhat strong Western Canada ridge, +PNA pattern Hrs 324-384. Let's see if it holds, last time they showed a big AL for 3 days from this range and it didn't verify. Edit: 0z weakened the pattern

The CFS, which is not a very good model, is showing -10dm Days 36-42 in the North Pacific in November. Come on, that's how far you had to go to see some semblance of effect for the strongest El Nino on record? lol

Just not a very good model. I'm surprised that you can have knowledge some index patterns, analog correlations and such and outperform seasonal models. An example is every seasonal showing -100 to -200dm +PNA in the N. Pacific this Winter. Just lazy ENSO input

How large of a region will be covered? I’m basically asking if this will cover the Adirondacks too lol.

JAMSTEC OCT update DJF 2m Temp DJF Precip

Yeah you are right. It's a small sample size. I was kind of being hyperbole to a point really but this is uncharted territory and we are seeing an early season weakening of the PV already. Ig the NAO and AO fire then we are in business.

This would be amazing for the drought.

October is verifying ~10F warmer than the Canadian forecast on Sept 30 in parts of the South so far. I'd be wary of the outlooks for Dec-Mar. They still have no skill. CPC has the South warm in the 6-10 and 8-14 at high confidence - so pretty big bust.

What a sick game. I was in the ATL for it, such an incredible game and an insane amount of Ravens fans. There were at least 15,000 Ravens fans there, it was incredibly loud. At times you thought it was a Ravens home game. It was soo much fun. 7d7a878e-fe3c-4e42-ba0a-05be0a8a86cd.mp4

Duplin County NC and Newberry County SC. Fayetteville was assigned preliminary rating of EF1.

1.12" total rainfall.

I wouldn't call it impressive I'd call it horrible. The heavy rains and high winds have brought an early end to the fall foliage season here as more than half the leaves are already down here. Officially the highest wind gust was 31 mph here but it went on for many hours and did some damage. Close to 3 inches here and many branches are down and more than half the leaves on the trees have also come down so I guess that means we are officially past peak. Expecting our first freeze next weekend anyway. By the way I see Mt Pocono in the yellow with 2.80 inches (and 31 mph wind gusts) but what is that yellow marker just to the west of Jim Thorpe and Lehighton? Is that 2.81 inches in Hazleton? It's just off the western edge of the map.

I've been developing some new visualizations for froude number and other upslope components, this first NW flow event will be a good test of how close I am to having a usable tool. Excited to test against validation this weekend. Generally the products have performed well when tested against historical events, but it's difficult to have full confidence when running against only model reanalysis data. I will post the results for this weekend's event. I plan to host a website with these publically available by ski season

He is a very smart guy but what he seems to forget is that at least 90 percent of the population wants a warmer climate. That's the main reason public policy doesn't change. Music to my ears and something I've been saying for a few months now. The summer of 1983 was one of my all time favorites. The period from June to September had endless heat like we've rarely seen only matched by 1991, 1993, 2002 and 2010.

New RRFS (convection-allowing) ensembles viewer on the SPC web page

Precip is way more large-scale than convective, so that's good. Fewer places for this one to escape too- nothing really to suppress it south or lift it north. QPF for me is now 0.65". I like this trend. Still not buying the QPFs over an inch around Denver though.