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34 / 29 clouds here after some frz drizzle. Perhaps some clearing later but back to clouds tomorrow. Overall cold the next 10 days to 12 days with the coldest much below normal Dec 8, Dec 13 - 16 with the next storm threat (frozen) Dec 12 - Dec 15, otherwise - dry. Moderating beyond there and perhaps pushing a period of above normal towards the 20th.

What's the preceiptitation forecast map Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Yes, soft light snow falling here…dusting up the landscape. Hopefully a little more to come as we work our way through the month.

Light soft snow falling…looks nice.

Got a little dusting and light snow now. 26/22

Looking at my bare oak leaf buried coastal plain postage stamp I can, with appropriate word substitutions still hope. As akways …..

Ripping proper parachutes under this band. Love it!

The RRFS from 00z to 12z.

Lake Superior is only one of the Great Lakes though. Both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario are below average right now for this date. Lake Huron is right about average but dropping fast and Lake Michigan is a little above average. This is much different than what it was like in October when all of the Great Lakes were very warm.

Yes, it’s a cold look, and there will be opportunities as Will said. We’ve had/seen way worse. So I’m willing to give the pattern some time mature, and see if we can capitalize on something.

Yeah, that SOI sauce be crazy. As some have mentioned, the devil is in the latency of effect, but to what gives us stronger amp, we should generally root for. On an unrelated note, where are our thoughts on the second half of winter? I got one more Bag Fry set to arrive on 12/17/25 so I'll be grounded from chasin' for 6 weeks (wife can't drive post c-section). Come Groundhog's Day, I'll be able to get back on the road and potentially bring my 10-year-old with me.

If the MJO stays in phase 8 as predicted, I’m going to keep selling on the SE ridge trying to appear. That said, the later we get into December the more ways we can snow with near normal temps.

Every year is patience. Expect cold an suppression

I do get the frustration ( and I used to get myself twisted when things kept being pushed out further and further ). I look at it this way, we're not in a bad pattern. It could be a lot worse. Things are going to happen the way they happen. We also know that things could just pop up out of nowhere as well. But I feel everyone's pain. I guess we're all a glutton for punishment..lol

2003? Pssh. We should be in despair that the whippersnappers don’t recall 1779. https://www.battlefields.org/learn/articles/washingtons-encampment-morristown-new-jersey-and-hard-winter-1779-1780 .

Lol…well In Anthony’s post, he does say patience is what’s needed. But the MJO as we’ve been told is not a driver, as many were led to believe, but only an enhancer that constructively or destructively interferes.

Looks like the southern stream is going dormant again this week. Maybe we can weasel our way into a clipper/screamer/mauler later in the week with that next shot of arctic air.

Nice morning, not bad about an hour of total snow. Maybe a quarter inch but the last batch was very festive huge flakes.

How many posts of Mjo, JB, and Steve D will it take for you to realize it’s still bare there?

My comment regarding snowfall only goes through December 20th. I think if things grow more favorable for the East Coast, it would be during the December 20-31 period as things stand now. Things can still change beforehand, because teleconnections forecasts lose skill beyond 10-14 days.

I’m sick of that thing too…the MJO can go piss off.

Patience

Big storm at the end of this month . Patience is key.

Just like everything in meteorology, it seems that there’s always one thing that can trump something else, albeit only in very rare cases, and that seems to be happening with that clipper. I mentioned this a week or two ago, the NAO has not helped us much in the last few years. It either has suppressed systems(yesterdays Virginia snow), and now it’s letting a clipper cut to Ottawa…we can’t seem to win with these NAO blocks.