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Quiet pattern, quiet forum (compared to others). Not as many enthusiasts post/analyze here in general it seems.

Some fun 6z EPS members but mostly for eastern areas though

GFS, Euro, HRRR, NAM all pretty much agree that this is a trace - 1" event for Wake. The biggest concern is that temperatures crash into the upper 20s right in time for the morning commute with residual moisture everywhere. 6Z EPS probabilities for RDU. ~70% chance of a trace, ~20% chance of 1"

HA defined her regime transitions from -1 SD to +1 SD or vice versa.

I do like 2023 as a late season analog (Feb-March), but the RNA shouldn't be as extreme.

Just caught the post after the reply. Thanks for the clarification, this actually makes much more sense. So ultimately, we *could* (if a storm signal remains) end up seeing guidance transition from the coastal look depiction to something more along the lines of an overrunning signal (or dare I say...cutter)? Would not be the first time we've seen this happen

Yea. I'm impressed with the AI suite overall.

Light snow in Pen-Mar. Not enough to really accum yet.

@ORH_wxman @CoastalWx Any thoughts on this one? Brockton, MA snow total from 4/1/97?

VDDay coming up..no better time to fully exorcise those Kristine demons.

The rising NAO has some modest positive correlation to enhancing precip over the eastern mid latitude continent... but the falling PNA, not so much. The combination of that might be better, because you have cold in place... With that falling PNA that implies rising heights into/over an initially cold lower troposphere. It's an overrunning signal ( just wrote about this above...). Which, we don't really see that right now in the guidance that show anything at all; they are indicating coastal stuff. It's all sketchy to me at best.

We crushed our prior record.

To be clear, I wasn't doubting you. I was surprised by the amount of difference in temp though. And I'm even more surprised by the discrepancy in your forecast high for today compared to mine. 8 degrees is a lot.

Either way, this weekend is going to suck.

I was told there would be better winter weather opportunities ahead. Are we banking on an April surprise? .

6z GFS

The Costco mushroom yard lights look great in the snow!

The sun did some damage on my south-facing yard yesterday, especially at the bottom of the pack. Almost like it was melting "bottom-up".

when i left office yesterday at 330 my normal route back to Akron, saw 28 in etown and got to 30 in lititz and akron. just checked for verification for you data weenies. Heres Akrons numbers. Weather observations for the past three days for Lancaster, Lancaster Airport Imperial (Metric) Date Time (est) Wind (mph) Vis. (mi.) Weather Sky Cond. Temperature (ºF) Relative Humidity Wind Chill (°F) Heat Index (°F) Pressure Precipitation (in) Air Dwpt 6 hour altimeter (in) sea level (mb) 1 hr 3 hr 6 hr Max. Min. 03 07:53 Calm 10.00 Overcast OVC050 21.9 12 66% 30.18 1022.7 03 06:53 Calm 10.00 Overcast OVC045 19 12 21 16 74% 30.17 1022.2 03 05:53 Calm 10.00 Overcast BKN050 OVC055 18 12 77% 30.16 1021.8 03 04:53 Calm 10.00 Overcast OVC050 18 10.9 74% 30.16 1021.7 03 03:53 W 3 10.00 Overcast OVC050 21 10 62% 30.16 1021.8 03 02:53 W 3 10.00 Overcast OVC055 19.9 9 62% 30.16 1021.8 03 01:53 W 3 10.00 Overcast OVC065 19.9 8.1 60% 30.16 1021.8 03 00:53 W 7 10.00 A Few Clouds FEW075 19 8.1 26.1 17.1 62% 11 30.15 1021.6 02 23:53 W 3 10.00 Partly Cloudy SCT090 19 8.1 62% 30.15 1021.6 02 22:53 W 3 10.00 Mostly Cloudy BKN120 19 8.1 62% 30.15 1021.6 02 20:53 Calm 10.00 Fair CLR 21.9 8.1 55% 30.14 1021.2 02 19:53 Calm 10.00 Fair CLR 25 7 46% 30.13 1020.9 02 18:53 W 7 10.00 Fair CLR 24.1 8.1 30 24.1 50% 17 30.13 1021.1 02 17:53 NW 6 10.00 Fair CLR 28 7 41% 22 30.12 1020.4 02 16:53 W 12 10.00 Fair CLR 28.9 9 43% 20 30.1 1019.8 02 15:53 NW 10 10.00 Fair CLR 28.9 8.1 41% 20 30.09 1019.5 02 14:53 NW 10 10.00 Fair CLR 28.9 9 43% 20 30.09 1019.4 02 13:53 NW 13 10.00 Fair CLR 28 10.9 49% 18 30.09 1019.7 02 12:53 NW 14 10.00 Fair CLR 26.1 10 26.1 12.9 51% 15 30.11 1020.3 02 11:53 NW 13 10.00 Fair CLR 25 9 50% 14 30.14 1021.3 02 10:53 NW 18 10.00 Fair CLR 21.9 8.1 55% 8 30.15 1021.5 02 09:53 W 17 10.00 Fair CLR 19 7 59% 5 30.15 1021.6 02 08:53 W 14 10.00 Fair CLR 16 5 62% 3 30.14 1021.1 02 07:53 NW 17 10.00 Fair CLR 15.1 1.9 56% -0 30.13 1020.8 02 06:53 W 16 10.00 Fair CLR 14 -0 19 12.9 53% -1 30.11 1020.4 02 05:53 NW 10 10.00 Fair CLR 15.1 -0 51% 3 30.1 1019.9 02 04:53 W 12 10.00 Fair CLR 15.1 -0.9 49% 3 30.1 1019.8 02 03:53 NW 15 10.00 Fair CLR 17.1 -0.9 45% 3 30.08 1019.3 02 02:53 NW 13 10.00 Fair CLR 18 -0.9 43% 6 30.07 1018.7 02 01:53 NW 13 10.00 Fair CLR 19 -0.9 41% 7 30.05 1018.1 02 00:53 N 14 10.00 Fair CLR 19 -0.9 24.1 19 41% 6 30.03 1017.6 01 23:53 N 10 10.00 Fair CLR 21 -2.9 34% 11 30.01 1016.9 01 22:53 NW 9 10.00 Fair CLR 21 -0.9 38% 11 29.98 1016.0 01 21:53 NW 14 G 21 10.00 Fair CLR 23 -2 33% 11 29.96 1015.3 01 20:53 NW 10 10.00 Fair CLR 24.1 -2 32%

hmmm I thought opposite when looking at the teleconnections. Rise in the NAO with a declining PNA All of this during a period which looked to be active with shortwaves progressing within the flow across the country. I know the OP shows a storm but not necessarily basing my thoughts on the OP...but seeing the OP with a storm kind of backs up the potential?

I just recalled this.. the stricter interpretation of the H.A. thesis, which really applies everywhere in nature ... whenever going from one state of a system, to a new state, requires events. That really all that is. Anyway, the -NAO differentiating ( or rising) to a +NAO did have a minoring statistic correlation with precipitation over eastern N/A. So technicall ... that +d(NAO) out there ... it's a little bit of a stretch though, because that particular correlation is really more overrunning related, whereas the current signals by the Can ens appears to be a vague early detection of Miller B

Bus stop this morning it felt warmer than what the temp was and my AccuWeather confirmed it. Temp was 21° but real feel was 31°. It was cloudy as well. What's the reasoning for that? Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

9 & 6 this morning for my stations.

Few flurries!!!

I just getting a feel for them too, but overall I’ve been fairly impressed with them sniffing signals out, or like this recent Carolina snow event, selling stuff here.