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Some of those years we had cold air delivery via a -EPO and a well timed/transient -NAO that supported a snowstorm. Jan 2017, 18 and 2022 are examples.

The warmest 850 temps are actually north of Chicago at the beginning of the week. I think this has potential to see some actual temperatures that are the highest we’ve seen in years for Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota. The funny part is there probably won’t be the media hype that we saw leading into the 4th of July since the dewpoints will be much lower leading to a lower heat index which leads to probably nothing worse than heat advisories. Of course everyone on this board knows that you need the lower dewpoints if you want higher actual temperatures.

We need a -AO and or -EPO to deliver legit cold. Outside of that we rely on a dynamic system(evap/dynamic cooling) with a very favorable track, and probably need a significant, established negative NAO to feed cold enough air southward as a coastal low climbs the coast. That's kind of always been part of the formula, esp in a Nino, but might be a bit more of a challenge today. Thus why I generally don't mind Ninas at all lately given my location, mostly depending on the NE Pac ridge position/orientation.

Good boundary is moving south. Seems there might be an old remnant (from yesterday I guess) one north to south across western ffx county as well. Maybe that with the Reston UHI/city convergence can get something going.

Didn't see the rotation on radar for that. Mt. Holly says straight lines.

Watching that outflow coming SE from PA while sitting on the stoop downtown and really hoping it at least brings a breeze as it hits us.

Storms cometh from PA. Hope they give us some more rain in Frederick.

Around 80 on the shoreline to upper 80's inland today. Dews upper 60's to low 70's. Mid 80's imby. Tomorrow starts the really hot stuff. We'll see how much.

Fizzle city again today

With Norway out, now I just want a toxic as hell France/England final.

No. Just fans. It never stays hot long enough to really need it.

Yeah let's see if we can get a +500dm -NAO. In Super El Nino STJ that is the best case scenario. Feb 1983 was -NAO as whole. We have however seen 13 straight +NAO Feb's. Let's see if we can break that lol 2014 1.34 2015 1.32 2016 1.58 2017 1.00 2018 1.58 2019 0.29 2020 1.26 2021 0.14 2022 1.68 2023 0.92 2024 1.09 2025 1.60 2026 0.68 1983 -0.5

Thats what I was envisioning. Either side of 80 with dews in 50’s. Very much like tomorrow. Same kind of setup despite a few wild folks buying the ops

First time catching a Wilson Warbirds game, and of course, during the third at bat, torrential rain, with lightning and thunder. Only 0.03 at the house.

Figured id bring the ENSO thread back up after hibernation for 2 years,The DMI the last couple weeks has been getting stronger,it should mainly stay this way it is until late fall when it peaks in a more or less strong NINO, The MJO as we head towards the next several days seemingly is getting nothing but destructive interference from a Kelvin Wave,should seemingly go back into the WP shortly after but it could also warm the east up again from a downwelling Kelvin Wave. The east has some subsurface temps around 100W OF 8C,these temps dont dont peak out until fall into winter,NINO of 1982-83 had the highest temp anoms in the subsurface,so i guess it has a chance to surpass that,who knows right now

I agree with that take but wonder how it would go without a change into cross polar flow. When we rely on home grown cold it might be different.

Quite a storm in Philly today. Saw some reports of a possible tornado in West Philly and wouldn't be shocked based on the damage I saw driving through West Fairmount Park. Severe tree damage, power was out and several spots were under a foot of water

Probably COC this time of year unless it gets more south for self destruction.

Not the case several times in recent winters- although most of those were Ninas. Jan 2022 is a perfect example(my storm.) We were in shut(shit) the blinds mode with no apparent end in sight and 10 days or so later there was a major snowstorm across much of the area, and it stayed pretty cold and snowed another time or 2.

Everything falls apart when it sees the LV it seems the past few days. Maybe there is an invisible dome we can't see.

Do you think the setup would still work with climate change? I ask as typically when our pattern is shit it takes a good while to ever get cold again.

97 in the point Monday.

GEFS/ EPS

This seems to concur.