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The Reservation Golf and Beach Club was pretty busy today.

You didn't misjudge our old friend Tony. This is prob his 20th account. He's like herpies, we just can't get rid of him. I'll take his ridiculous overoptimism over Krs4Lfe and his stuck on repeat doom and gloom bs.

I’ve got 2 met degrees we can give away in a forecasting contest if you want. My god. Lol I know it’s the op and it’s the 18z run and patterns don’t equal snow, but sign me up for what the 18z GFS is selling. As Tip said, that the last half of January fails. Then we’re on to golf season!

WTF? 40s all around me and my neighborhood is mid 30s. The cold air just wedges between the hills behind us and the Green River just to my east. I really just want to get rid of the ice in my driveway.

I guess it’s either climate change or a match of “glass half fulls” vs “glass half empties” in the evening around here.

One thing seems certain is that the next two weeks are going to be night and day different than this week

You posted that my forecasts are too long and difficult to understand, that's why I posted that....just ball busting back, but if you had a seasonal effort, post it and let's compare...

Jesus, the beer is overflowing in this forum the last couple of hours. must be happy hour. mmm beer.

Still lots of options on the table this far out

We got to 60°! Very cool. Almost more impressive that it was in a driving rain storm. .

At least the GFS lost its “congrats OBX” BS for the 16th. It’s now rightly back in line with all other major guidance. So how this will evolve is a lot clearer than earlier today…

Here's a study from a few years back with a similar goal. How far will my climate shift in the future. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/02/190212120044.htm https://www.umces.edu/futureurbanclimates

As god intended.

yeah...now the GFS is throwing the 22nd at us ... get the f out here with that. i think we've covered just about every date between the 14th and 25th at this point... none of this shit can be trusted - not even standard amount for this range, either. Particularly bad with continuity.

I can school you just let you blow your own horn every thread you possibly can.

You might want to reread the date on that map.

Meanwhile in weather, it's raining out washing the crap off everything...

Those wave spaces are competing with one another. Remove either, boom. Not sure one or the other won't become dominant over the days to come - which one? no idea. But should that not happen, it won't be impossible the we either miss both, or end up with an event that's hardly worth a thread. By the way bro, ignore it

Yep i think bluewave posted that in the main enso thread. Usually it was biased the other way, and this year has been different

I sure hope not.

I posted a map of verification scores a few pages ago, but there's a clear consensus of the Euro flexing the southeast ridge too often in the extended this winter.

I said your red tag confers a cloak of expertise that is not deserved. I.E., Bachelor's degree ≠ knowledge & competence. I stand by that. People should be judged based on the quality of their contributions, not a presumption of expertise.

Right, and then watch it be a monster-east based event.

Hey, I never thought I'd be on the verge of 8 consecutive shitty seasons, but here we are....and for the record, I have utterly pantsed Webb so far this season.