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I have a few strawberry plants me and my kids potted in the spring and they have flowered again and have berries ripening. And I have been below freezing twice and had frost for a week straight. It's odd.

Some stats Looks like Pittsburgh had its sunniest period : Pittsburgh just experienced its "clearest" and sunniest period on record, according to data shared by Weather World PSU in : https://x.com/WeatherMatrix/status/2116156806841893217 ) Record for rainless period: Today is 15 for most some are at 16 or 17 days pending if you had any measurable rain on Oct 16th() NYC — Central Park Rank Days Start Date End Date 1 36 Oct. 9, 1924 Nov. 13, 1924 2 29 Sep. 30, 2024 Oct. 28, 2024 3 28 Sep. 5, 1941 Oct. 2, 1941 4 27 Sep. 10, 1910 Oct. 6, 1910 4 27 Sep. 1, 1884 Sep. 27, 1884 EWR — Newark Liberty International Airport Rank Days Start Date End Date 1 41 Sep. 30, 2024 Nov. 9, 2024 2 26 May 30, 1949 Jun. 24, 1949 3 25 Nov. 6, 1939 Nov. 30, 1939 4 24 Aug. 16, 1995 Sep. 8, 1995 4 24 Jan. 23, 1980 Feb. 15, 1980 Additional 24-day ties occurred in 1963, 1959 and 1942. PHL — Philadelphia International Airport Rank Days Start Date End Date 1 42 Sep. 29, 2024 Nov. 9, 2024 2 29 Oct. 11, 1874 Nov. 8, 1874

I have a feeling December could suprise everyone. We are in uncharted territory.

Records: Highs: EWR: 83 (2024) NYC: 81 (1946/2024) LGA: 83 (2024) JFK: 78 (2024) Lows: EWR: 29 (1975) NYC: 29 (1925) LGA: 33 (1975) JFK: 30 (1966) Historical: 1846 - Eighty-seven pioneers were trapped by early snows in the Sierra Nevada Mountains that piled five feet deep, with 30 to 40 foot drifts. Just 47 persons survived the "Donner Pass Tragedy". (The Weather Channel) 1884: Brownsville, TX reported 15.71 inches of rain for the month, nearly five times normal. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1887: Weather records have been kept at Charlotte, NC since 1878. The only snow ever to occur there in October happened on this date. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1899: A Caribbean hurricane crossed Cuba then moved north and made landfall at the North Carolina/South Carolina border. The hurricane became extra-tropical in Virginia, then curved across southeast Pennsylvania and moved into New England and the Canadian Maritimes. The highest wind gusts were measured to 84 mph at Cape Henry, VA, 82 mph at the Delaware Breakwater, DE and 60 mph at Norfolk, VA. (Ref. Wilson Weather History) Richmond had 1.71 inches of rain on this date in 1899. (Ref. Richmond Weather Records - KRIC) 1925: Record low October temperature readings were set from northern New England down to the Mid-Atlantic to the Ohio Valley. Record lows included: Van Buren, ME: 1°, Garfield, VT: 2°, Pittsburg, NH: 4°, Houghton Lake, MI: 7, International Falls, MN: 12, Peoria, IL: 14, Rockford, IL: 14, Madison, WI: 16, Alpena, MI: 17, Burlington, VT: 17°, Syracuse, NY: 20°, Flint, MI: 20, South Bend, IN: 20-Tied, Dubuque, IA: 25-Tied, Allentown, PA: 22°, Avoca, PA: 22°, Springfield, IL: 22, Rochester, NY: 23°, Fort Wayne, IN: 23, Indianapolis, IN: 24, Buffalo, NY: 25°, Grand Rapids, MI: 25, Wilmington, DE: 25°-Tied and New York (Central Park), NY: 29°-Tied. (Ref. Wilson Weather History) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1950 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the central U.S. for Halloween. The temperature soared to 83 degrees at Minneapolis MN, their warmest reading of record for so late in the season. Other record highs included: Charlotte, NC: 85°, Raleigh, NC: 85°, Richmond, VA: 85°, Washington, DC: 85°, Chicago, IL: 84°, Rockford, IL: 84°, Greenville-Spartanburg, SC: 84°, Greensboro, NC: 84°, Athens, GA: 84°-Tied, Omaha, NE: 83°, Springfield, MO: 83°, South Bend, IN: 83°, Columbus, OH: 83°, Beckley, WV: 83°, Roanoke, VA: 83°, Cleveland, OH: 82°, Lexington, KY: 82°-Tied, Allentown, PA: 81°, Harrisburg, PA: 81°, Cincinnati, OH: 81°, New York (LaGuardia Airport), NY: 80°, Dayton, OH: 80°, Bristol, TN: 79°, Asheville, NC: 79°, Elkins, WV: 77°-Tied, New York (Central Park), NY: 76°-Tied, Bridgeport, CT: 73° and Buffalo, NY: 72°. (Ref. Wilson Weather History) (The Weather Channel) 1963: The 28-day dry streak came to an end at Philadelphia, PA. The streak still stands as the longest in their history. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1965 - Fort Lauderdale, FL, was deluged with 13.81 inches of rain, which brought their rainfall total for the month of October to an all-time record of 42.43 inches. (30th-31st) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1971: Snowstorm with 8 inches in Caribou, MN. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1987 - Halloween was a wet one in the southwestern U.S. Heavy rain in southern California resulted in numerous mudslides. Weather-related auto accidents resulted in three deaths and twenty-five injuries. Mount Wilson CA received 3.14 inches of rain in 24 hours. Yakima WA reported measurable rainfall for the first time since the 18th of July. The 103 day long dry spell was their longest of record. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Twenty-two cities in the northeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. The low of 19 degrees at Cleveland OH was a record for October, and morning lows of 21 degrees at Allentown PA and Bridgeport CT tied October records. Nine cities in the southwestern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Phoenix AZ with a reading of 96 degrees. Showers made Halloween a soggy one in the southeastern U.S. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Halloween night was a soggy one in New England. Showers in the northeastern U.S. produced more than an inch and a half of rain in six hours at some locations. An invasion of cold arctic air brought an abrupt end to a week of "Indian Summer" type weather in the Great Lakes Region, and brought snow and subzero wind chill readings to the Northern Plains. In Colorado, Alamosa was the cold spot in the nation with a record low of two degrees above zero, and a Halloween night storm brought 3 to 6 inches of snow to the Front Range, and 5 to 10 inches to the nearby foothills. Icy streets around Denver the next morning made for a rather spooky commute. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1991: Pueblo CO reported 16.5 inches of snow during the month to set a record for October. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1991: A severe winter storm, dubbed the Great Halloween Mega Storm, struck the upper Midwest. Minnesota bore the brunt of this storm. Blizzard conditions occurred with winds gusting frequently to 40 and 50 mph. By the time it was all over on November 2nd, Duluth recorded 37 inches, Minneapolis 28 inches, International Falls 18 inches and 11.2 inches in 24-hours at Sioux Falls, SD, their earliest heavy snowfall of 6 inches or more and snowiest October on record. For Duluth and Minneapolis, the snow amounts set new all-time records for the greatest amount of snow in a single storm. The storm gave these two cities nearly half of their average seasonal snowfall. 1993: Southern Plains cold wave continues. 43 record lows set. 28 degrees in Corpus Christi Texas was the coldest ever in October or November at that location. Brownsville recorded 35 degrees to also set a monthly record. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1994: A commuter airliner crashed near Roselawn, IL, killing all 68 people on-board. The National Transportation Safety Board concluded that icing on the aircraft's control surfaces led to the crash. The board found that ice on the ailerons disrupted the air flow around them and caused the plane to roll upside down. The crash led to research that has led to more accurate icing forecasts for aviation, leading to safer flying. (Ref. Wilson Weather History) 2000: October is third driest since 1870. The month ended as the third-driest October in Baltimore, and the second driest ever in Washington, since record keeping began. (Washington Weather Records - KDCA) October is normally the driest month in Baltimore, averaging just 2.98 inches of rain. But Baltimore-Washington International Airport has seen only three days of measurable rain since Sept. 26. and two of those days delivered only 0.01 of an inch each. All told, only 0.08 of an inch of rain has fallen at BWI since Sept. 26. That was 32 days ago. The only Octobers that were drier were in 1924, when barely 0.05 of an inch fell and October 1963, when only a trace of rain was detected at the airport. Baltimore's records go back to 1870. Washington, DC, has had just 0.02 inches of rain since Sept. 26. Only October 1963 was drier, with just a trace of rain. Early relief is not likely. October is third driest since 1870. (Source: Baltimore Sun) Richmond, Virginia had the driest October and also the driest of any month on record with only 0.01 inches precipitation. (Ref. Richmond Weather Records) An F2 tornado destroyed the Oconto, NE, community center while 19 children/4 adults were sheltered in the basement. Every building along main street was destroyed/damaged. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) 2014: Snow began falling early Halloween morning in the northwest suburbs. People in the city saw some flakes. It hasn't snowed on Halloween since 1993, and it was only a trace amount of snow that year. But .10 inches of snow was recorded at O'Hare just before 9 a.m. Friday, marking the first measurable snowfall on Halloween in Chicago history. The average date of the first measurable snowfall in Chicago is Nov. 16. (Ref.NBC Channel 7News CHICAGO(WLS)

If JB was worried about a blown forecast, he shouldn't limit it to just December as the cause. Lol

58 / 34 great stretch continues. Upper 50s - low 60s for most today and a great day for the kids. A touch warmer tomorrow and 4:50 PM sunset for the standard time non and enthusiasts. Back to the 70s in the warm spots Mon - Fri but Thu / Fri / Sat may see the first rain in almost 20 days that point with large trough west cut off of our area. Overall near - above normal beyond there but the dry / nice streak looks to reverse.

1. Even with this rapid recovery, which is not at all uncommon for an early SSW as climo rises well into Dec, Nov as a whole would still ~tie for the lowest avg 10 hPa/60N wind (back to 1948). 2. I’ve got RONI monthly/trimonthly peaking ~+3.0C/~+2.8C now.

Maybe we'll roast through about Dec 20th, and then cool down enough for a sub-wide covering just in time for Christmas.

Can we make it three years in a row in coastal Carolina? First photo is Myrtle Beach SC second is a few miles away in Calbash NC right over the SC line in February, was back in East Hartland right after that for the blizzard. That second photo was a couple days after the storm where Ocean effect dumped 15 inches, needless to say plowing snow doesn’t happen there. The one of Myrtle was about six inches and that was all snow no mix. The year before we had almost 6 inches in Myrtle Beach.

I miss last winter

Wonder if Margarvage will post this?

GFS could be warmer but I’ll live .

In 2023-24 the Gaylord area in NW lower MI saw like 80" of snow and considered it a non winter. (They had record snow last winter). The mere idea of no snow in the lakes is insane.

WHO thinks this is going to be a good winter? @40/70 Benchmark, myself and others have marveled at this statement which gets thrown around here somewhat frequently and yet no one can point out a SINGLE person who says this will be a "good winter". I guess saying that it will snow in places that have never seen a winter without multiple snowfalls means a "good winter". The mere idea of no snow in the Great Lakes region with shorts from Christmas to Valentines day is absolutely ridiculous. Guarantee ill be wearing sweaters and worst case scenario enjoying a much lower heating bill than usual. Its amazing how some people lose their grasp on reality of how the weather works.

I'd prefer to have a la nina next winter--and I really dislike ninas because I live in the Mid-atlantic meaning I'm too far north for sliders AND too far west for Miller Bs. BUT...long game...if we can get la nina next year, it can do the stupid double dip thing in 28-29, then it can peter out and we can hope for a nino with a solar minimum! Who says no?

I looked at the ensembles. While it may get more wet, it’s AN for sure. I expect some alternate periods of warm and cold while averaging AN.

Not to nitpick but the ice storm was Jan 1998. But yes. Nov-Jan 1997-98 was fine here for a strong Nino. Plenty of snowfalls. February was the disaster no-show. March saw a winter comeback of sorts but most of it stayed west of me.

Does this map put both Dryslot and Tamarack in Severe drought ?

The weenie land AI euro eps was posted. Sometimes these models dont latch on to the PV warming. If anything colder air would return for a brief at the end of November. AO and NAO diving with the PNA rising. It also should get stormy soon.

That’s how it goes.

Yeah driving around yesterday colors were really popping especially in the late afternoon sun