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EURO won't lie. It just screams the inevitable

I would wait until Thursday when the players are actually on the field and all the models get the new data. I’m sure weather balloon launches will increase and recon flights will definitely be in the air on Thursday. I call BS on the EURO

There is a kink somewhere. Cold is all kinds of backed up in Canada. Something is modeled wrong. Either HP is weaker as advertised. Or the Baja low does something unexpected in its phasing. Something isn't right.

0z Euro ensembles continue to look better for heavier snows in PA, probs for 6”+ in a 24 hour period (at just the 10:1) are 80% or higher for about the southern third of the state now. 0z Euro ensemble snowfall mean

Maybe It will make to 60 here Sunday. Huge north jump on EURO.

I haven't been around for many of them but usually there's always some issue like no real high pressure, no real cold air source to our north, relying on dynamics etc.. That's where the NW trend kills chances. Correct me if I'm wrong but you usually don't see this setup where there is tons of arctic air to our north, hp systems in place and this sort of retreat. Just looks wonky to me...but I'm out of practice.

Heard. My rollercoaster was snow storm of the century to ice storm that nobody wants. Eager to see how it plays out.

Whos going to sleep? .

It was an ice storm of epic proportions a model run or two ago. Now a cold rain. Stayed tuned for the 6z models when we wake up.

Not wrong. But the trends don't lie. This could easily be a Mid Atlantic problem by the 6z. How often have we seen this in the last 5 years? Alot

Look I wasn't buying the all snow 30 inches in most spots....but I'm suspect of the Euro solution. There's a 1040 high that books it at the last second and all the super cold air gets beat by the storm. It's possible but I'd wait to see what 6z and the models show for later today.

Maybe stop worrying about what you literally can’t control? we’ve been dying for a moisture laden bomb into cold air for a decade. Just roll the dice and hope for the best. This beats the hell out of hoping to squeeze a warning level snow out of .3” qpf from a weak low sliding off the coast and watching the northern edge get eaten by dry air. I mean, jeebus everyone.

Clayton in Rabun County, almost to SC on 76 E

Here’s EPS….doesnt really capture all of it though since it’s longer than 24h

I would take tonight's runs in a heartbeat. The problem is...worry about the future ones. Blip or trend? There's fear of the future ones continuing further and further north.

Blaming you

Bet the farm a weakened HP and a wonky Baja LP will end this tomorrow

Lol it's good to see some things never change around. Everyone there's a cliff diving thread specifically for this. I'm in the camp that it's unlikely a low would plow that far north but we shall see. Timing in that baja low is everything and unfortunetly we still have some time before we know when it will actually kick.

This sexy storm is screaming cold rain for most that thought we'd get a storm of the decades. Where are you at?

Oh no! 12-18 inches of snow before we worry about sleet on top? awful! We need to go back to the happier runs where we smoked cirrus- that was totally better… FORFUCKSAKE PEOPLE

You’re not misreading. The Euro is a cold rain for Atlanta. Everything is trending in the wrong direction.

Sandyston in Sussex county recorded -32 in the January 1994 cold outbreak and is probably more legitimate although they do recognize that -34 in River Vale in 1904. I'm about 45 miles east, northeast of Sandyston in Orange County NY, Highland Mills, and I recorded -23 that morning. There were numerous readings below -20 county wide in Orange and NW jersey so it's not far fetched a sheltered valley hit -32. Plus the snow cover was pretty deep area wide at that time.

According to FOX 5 out of Atlanta, at 2:15, they are still putting up all ice for GA, more than .50", but I am reading here the EURO moves everything hundreds of miles north, so only a rain? Or am I misreading?

Anytime we’re on the snow/ice line’s edge 3 to 4 days out. You just know that snow line is about to shift 800 miles north into the next state as we get closer.

If there’s less confluence and a full phase we could absolutely see an outcome like this where the primary goes well west of us. In that situation the usual caveats about SWFE apply: I-90 corridor is favored for all snow, here hopefully we get the heavy wall of snow before any warm air aloft comes in. But if you have closed mid level lows going west of you it will eventually happen.