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We are almost in SMR! .

That lead aspect you annotated there is part of the problem when getting into this ordeal at some pattern discussion scales... it's triggering and then whisking away the dynamics fuel for the leads engine.

I have seen less complaining at a Mah Jongg game. JFC.

Nina’s are exhausting

You're right, we might get something we might get nothing ... we might get everything. You covered it all. I wish everyone listened to you.

My gut tells me we're getting clipped by a moderate impact - It'll be by a system that "could have" been truly magnificent, but the interference is probably real and will mechanically limit the this lead's ability. It's well on it's way through hour 90 or so... then, it opens up like that - it opens because there's a non-linear offset. Not you, but that is not something you can "see" on a chart. It's exposed via behavior - case in point, the unusual opening back up when the totality of the +PNA is still maxing. There's almost no other explanation for why that does that. Here's the thing.. that 2nd wave is entirely assimilated - unless there's been some sort of breakthrough in data gathering that I am less privy to, the source origin of the 2nd wave's guts are out over the Date Line. If that comes in weaker and/or the timing allows for a bigger gap, the lead will almost certainly grow more intense in lockstep with that correction. If anyone bothers, go back to the big hit by the GFS yesterday and compare the gap between the previous runs, you can see the big hit run was wider... anyway... I think when push comes to shove, the models are not that good? not enough to project 90% of reality when in this particularly unique situation with sudden onset +d(PNA) and handling too balls in the nut sack. The lead wave wave is sampling now, and there's some GEFs and GFS and implications.

Ahem I am the best forecaster here.

Wrap it up a tad sooner and it would’ve a nice CCB over SNE. Convection offshore playing games.

Would agree that 2026-27 looks promising. To maximize our chances we would need to achieve a mod-strong Modoki Nino or a weak-mod east based Nino (i don’t think we’ll get a west based Nino). Would say that if either of these outcomes occur the PDO should be at least neutral, further improving our chances. However, that is a season that needs to be a blockbuster. If we don’t achieve 25-40”+ then I’m not sure how the Mid-Atlantic scores.

Really wish they would stop running the operational models past 120 to be honest.

18th goes poof on the gfs

Seems like the west coast is experiencing that Pineapple Express you spoke on earlier. Id assume that’s causing some errors with each model. .

The more amplified storm here, completes negates anything two days later. Seems like, as usual, it’s one or the other, or nothing. Not both

I take 18z ai gfs for $2,000 Carver. It would be nice

I am mad at the models! The amount of digital snow they show for mid Atlantic that bust… something needs to be tweaked. .

This hobby can be truly tiresome. Our rei sucks.

Exactly. Last year there was multiple times they were lit up and it meant nothing

There were some runs that had a decent signal. But not really consistent.

Texans are gonna smoke the Steelers.

25th of January—2027.

Been sippin bourbon for hours. Replied to the wrong post lol. But yeah, still time for changes with my storm(lol) On to the 25th!

We snow . That’s a lock

Doesn’t even snow here when they do show something. lol

Oh I can’t wait to see the Euro! The same model that was playing catch up to the GooFus?? If that’s truly the case, we likely are watching cold dry wispy cirrus clouds floating by at this rate.

The irony is the 18z GFS, now that it has sobered up a bit, is still producing some decent clown maps. It could have a little bit of DGEX in it, and probably does. However, I do wonder if it is handling the qpf a bit better? Still has 6-10" over TRI w/ both systems, and the GEFS has been pretty steadfast in that. It still would be a coup, but at least now it would be a realistic coup. The 1,000mi Pacific fetch is not present on this run. The 17th vort looks pretty vigorous. I suspect your original thoughts may end up being correct. The NBM is pretty aggressive for a model which most of the time is not.