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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
michsnowfreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
1982-83 was hands down the worst winter of the strong nino bunch here. -
Enjoy your 35 and driving rain this winter.
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Wow Keedysville mesonet site is on pace to break 2" of rain today. 18z HRRR has another 1" - 2.5" from I-70 north through noon Sunday.
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
michsnowfreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Oh for sure. Its all relative. We still have winter, just not as much as we normally do. Ive been saying since March, and will only get more confident if el nino stays on the strong path, that next winter will see less cold and snowcover but a bigger storm. Multiple instances of good storms in strong Nino winters. Usually get a few of the very scenic paste jobs too. -
Think you may be right. Got .49” yesterday. So far today have .42”. I keep looking at the forecast for Wolf Trap as we are headed down for a concert tonight. Glad Mr. J got indoor seating and not lawn. Going to be chilly though. Have to break out the jeans.
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That had been my thinking. When I vertically inserted the snow shovel, I could see it 3-4" into the stuff - not really surprising for snow that's 98.6% air.
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What?
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Are you racing tomorrow?
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You probably need over .25 to get some.
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
^If May finishes where we are now in the SOI, there will have been only one 2-month period with a lower SOI since 2016, Aug-Sept 2023, and was barely lower than -10/month. It's been quite a +SOI streak since 2016. Big difference in the SOI this Spring after an anomalous +7 March. -
What drought? I am genuinely confused at drought talk. Last few months: May ; 3.36" - more to come April: 2.93" March: 5:04 Feb: 2.44 ( i dont melt down snow, so i missed some im sure). This year has not been dry at all. Last June and July were drier, but the fall was normal to above (5" in October).
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
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When you get older like me the lack of clouds might be irritating. That's like too cobalt blue sunny.
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Big way? With all due respect when they come back in a big way and redevelop their cute little NJ lows which historically have loved south central ct, you will really experience something fun.
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Looked at Noaa and saw a refreshingly tame Hurricane seasonal forecast and a cool wet weekend. Looks good to me.
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May has been great for the drought in my area. Today's drought monitor shows D1/moderate drought conditions, down from D3/extreme just three weeks ago. I seem to recall that the data is collected on Tuesdays, and on Tuesday and Wednesday we had quite a bit of precip so it is possible that next week will continue to show improvement.
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I like the look of everything down south right now. Besides, our main rain batch is tomorrow all day (morning rain shield to spotty heavy showers).
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0.98" for the day. Rain has finally lightened up. 53 degrees.
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.25... finally got some
