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Happy Hour coming soon

Obviously not after 12Z run

To many of us, no matter what you say, this still applies. As always …..

I think from where we have been 6z GFS was almost "Folks"!!

Here we go suppression vs snow and rain classic. I do not think in this set up suppression will be a thing looks progressive up the coast.

As had been mentioned, signal still there for 12/2 12/3, but much more tepid at 12z today. i wouldn’t expect much from that. Need a lot of factors to break right. Temps look marginal

This is exactly the theme we have been seeing last few years. Now with that said we see the potential and we are a little under a week out so changes will be abound good or worse. My expectations are learned to be in check for sure.

Looking good on this cycle for the western suburbs, my 7.5 prediction from earlier might need modifications tomorrow.

I'd like to see a sharper trof like last night's GFS and UK. That allows more intense and widespread precipitation and it also anchors the surface high further west in Quebec due to the strongest upper level convergence staying further west. With a more positively tilted trof, the surface convergence shifts east and the surface high goes with it. (upper levels and surface are connected in the sense that converging air aloft tends to sink [surface high pressure] and diverging air aloft tends to rise [surface low pressure])

Randy lives in the real world.

I thought the Euro is usually overamped and the gfs is too progressive.

It’ll probably end as about 10 miles of snow

Hmmmm. Local NWS forecast for Columbia includes 40% chance snow Monday night and 60% wintry mix to rain Tuesday.

Say what?!?

I would rather have the models where they are now this far out and after todays 12Z runs I think this will be snow/ice or nothing north of Philly at least - GFS is usually over amped to begin with..........

The GFS lost the big western trof and sharpened a different shortwave in the central US in just a few cycles. This happened in the mid-range, not fantasy range. It just goes to show how variable model output can be in this range.

There will be a drought buster here soon...

But you need the cold air in place to have a chance at snow. I like warm weather in October and most of November, but now it's time to start rooting for colder weather for snow lovers.

All 3 of the major ensemble or average runs of the European / GFS and Canadian all have some measurable snow on average on Tuesday.

Lowest solar radiation day since I got these panels installed 6 weeks ago. Nasty misty day

All 3 of the major ensemble or average runs of the European / GFS and Canadian all have some measurable snow on average on Tuesday.

A very good night for me.

Would rather warm if it won’t snow. Can play sports outside and not freeze, lower heating bills

This does not add to my confidence

Well, that wasn't good. WAS putting up Christmas lights for last 2 hours and now it is pouring rain. ZERO mention of rain in the forecast....... hopefully it pulls thru pretty fast so I can get back out there.