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Meh...4-0

Big november snow also locks in a crappy winter. The big sample size of 1987 was used in my deep analysis.

Tomorrow will be mostly sunny with temperatures reaching the middle and upper 60s. A few locations could reach or exceed 70°. The mild weather will be short-lived, as much cooler air will poor into the region afterward. In its wake, New York City will see the temperature dip below 50° for the first time this season perhaps on Tuesday morning and then on Wednesday morning. Wednesday morning will be the coldest morning so far this season with the temperature tumbling into the middle and upper 40s in New York City and 30s in some distant outlying suburbs. The week will be dry. The next chance for precipitation could be Sunday or the following Monday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.1°C for the week centered around September 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.83°C. Both ENSO regions have set new all-time records. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -30.49 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.264 today.

Warm but definitely not dry.

Know the feeling. I coach travel baseball at Christmas Tree Park in Manchester and luckily we get games in based on how the coaches take care of the fields. Much better than county run fields where they close for the chance of rain lol. We played a double header this morning no problem.

Looks like a pretty pleasant month setting up in the southern Great Lakes, ie in the far eastern reaches of the Midwest lol. Colors rapidly popping, sunny with cridp chilly nights, temps oscillating between above and below avg.

Im hopeful we have at least one opportunity in our area. Always about timing. Its fun tracking on the models when we have a legit event. Few and far between around here.

Stop clicking on them and they will stop showing up in your feed.

.21" for the "event". Useless.

Central Gulf Coast is getting more rain. These communities usually pick up lots and lots and lots and lots of rain every year. They ARE right on the Gulf Coast, after all. But this autumn/winter/spring 2027 you can multiply that by at least 10. Hope they love living underwater, because that's going to happen. Then a Campeche tropical feature may hit Texas in a few days. It's starting. Very Strong El Nino is now interacting with the 500 millibar pressure surface over North America and the United States. I hope south central Texas gets utterly obliterated by rain. I am dyin to see water come UP thru drains because of flooding.

The GFS ensemble thinks a below normal temperature month for October is underway...

With possible rain at times

No way

My ChescoWx forecast has beaten the NWS point and click in 36 of the last 40 days!

Raining. 56 here.

My ChescoWx forecast has beaten the NWS point and click in 36 of the last 40 days!

But a beautiful +NAO. lol

Without Lamar I could easily see them losing to Atlanta. Raven's scored zero points in the second half today. With Lamar this game would have been 40-14, despite a million penalties.

All good. With lack of time to do these analyses myself, I tend to make these one off comments going only by memory. But I probably shouldn’t do that, since I work in a different field now and my memory isn’t what it used to be

No need to search very far since it has been the dominant pattern since March.