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Just noticed that. Pretty much clear now. LFG! Big gully washers for the win!

I would be down for that. Give me some good thunder for awhile.

We have seen that time and time again in the past. No flood watch for the island. .

The state of Falls Lake as of 6/21/2026 near Santee Road Point in Durham (Falls Lake is a main source of water for Raleigh).

62 degrees and just started raining.

I watered the garden on Sunday just in case we get another 7-10 split!

Flood Watch 1-3 inches expected FFA from KOKX HRR has been all over the place with the precip/storm placements in the metro- same with the NAM - definite NOWCASTING event

Looks like I might have a chance to chase after all this evening if things go right. SPC extended the 2% tornado just to my north. As @nrgjeffsaid, 2% strong Date: 6/22/2026 @7:10 AM

Clearing out now

Hopefully they become big ole, slow moving gully washers with lots of lightning. Severe around here is always really isolated. I feel like the majority of it comes from random down burst during summer thunderstorms. I remember widespread straight line winds once in my nearly 50 years here. Tornados are rare unless you live in La Plata. Evidently that town has been flattened more than once.

Seen this at the theater in Wilkes Barre when it came out, and got the dvd...well worth seeing excellent! Agnes Flood Documentary Project npreodstoSa1c648t3l61l73h53alu3ci3452f7iatum381uh21001817070 · On this date in 1972 - June 21 - torrential rains were hitting the Wyoming Valley. "Agnes" was here. Two days later, the people of the Wyoming Valley experienced what, to this day, is simply referred to as "The Flood." It was the worst natural disaster in U.S. history. On Wednesday June 24, the story of those days, and the weeks and months that followed, will be told when "Agnes" returns to the big screen at the F.M. Kirby Center. Showtimes are 1 p.m. and 7 p.m. Tickets will be available at the box office at showtime, or can be purchased in advance by visiting www.kirbycenter.org or by calling (570) 826-1100. https://www.facebook.com/reel/963239149844407 See less

Not to be a deb, but this doesn't look as impressive on the severe side as it did a few days ago. Definitely a chance for multiple rounds of thunderstorms today, but the overall spatial coverage and helicity seem to have backed off.

hit by what? i am at 1.25" MTD

Hope that’s not case, need something beneficial out of this. Next shot would be Friday.

If you're not in the stratiform rain zone which our subforum won't, we're relying on convection to produce any rain we get. If that misses or fails to materialize we get skunked.

Well here's something we haven't seen much of in awhile - Stuff was starting to brown up so need the rain. I have 3.36" for the month so far. Currently overcast and 71 with dp 64.

You’ll be soaked. Not sure how much convection will be generated here, but good synoptic rains there.

Maybe even not a drop?

NAM 3K looks pretty interesting for fokes DC and east. There's even a flood watch for the Philly area. Only thing I don't like is the solid overcast this morning.

My interpretation of the JMA and CANSIPS is that they are seeing something real, but are overemphasizing it. Regardless, it does bolster my confidence in a favorable period of Modoki like forcing during the second half. That said, I would agree with Snowman, and most, that we aren't getting a Modoki set up in the seasonal mean with an El Nino this strong.....I think that is what many register it as when those seasons are used as analogs and that should not be the case.

BINGO.

It’s a favorable pressure pattern for sea ice retention with the deep low north of Alaska. We have been seeing this weak dipole pattern much of the time since 2013. Pretty much the opposite of the strong dipole pattern which was in place from 2007-2012 which lead to the multiple records. But the post below shows that the Euro has a cold bias on the DMI chart below. Still a colder pattern but nothing as cold as the Euro shows.

Dandyland special on the mesos

lol

My guess with these seasonal models are that they are very simple tools that aren’t actually making a forecast. They are showing the correlations and filling in the temperatures to match. These are the forecasts issued for DJF 2023-2024 made in August. Notice how it looks like the models are just cutting and pasting a correlation map for Nino 3.4 North American temperatures without much regard to this being a super El Niño or weak El Niño. I converted the verification below to °C to match the forecasts so everything lines up correctly. I also included the cooler 1981-2010 base period for the CanSIPS which the forecast was issued in. Verification was the warmest winter on record for the CONUS