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On the barrier islands sure but just inland away from them made it to 100 during the heat last summer since we had an established WNW downslope flow. We’ll see if that holds this time but it might be very impressive near the coast where that offshore flow can maintain.

How did I get drawn into this "kerfuffle??" A couple of things for all. 1) People can agree to disagree and still be friends/civil. 2) Debate/discussion overall is a *good* thing! That how science advances and everyone learns more. Not just objective facts, but improve ways to present and communicate, which,IMHO, is the biggest hurdle we face, esp. in this social media age. Tone, inflection, and countenance, among other things, are lost via social media and it is all too easy to assume the negative, and then ppl get upset and the conservation devolves or shuts down. That's not good.

Not to take anything away from the Nino region SSTs, in particular in regions 3.4 and 1+2, which have been breaking records for weeks now, the subsurface is just blazing and still warming. Once these transiting (new) DWKWs reach the EPAC and augment what’s there now, subsurface anomalies reaching +12C in the next couple of months would not surprise me

As usual the HRDPS nailed it for the past several runs. Best short term model by far.

West winds Friday. That’s the day the south shore roasts. .

My temp has been 69 or 70 the entire day. Up to 0.37” since midnight, very much a small drop, warm rain process happening today.

Sun has become pretty active again contrary to your typical transition to a minimum. Let's see is that continues. https://solen.info/solar/index.html

does anyone have access to the aids euro

Definitely still a brutal GFS run through next weekend and perhaps even drier than the previous one. It is not doing anything with the lemon offshore. Falls Lake after yesterday's rainfall:

Late to the party on this one, but this is the Cfs2 ssta map prog for December. Sure looks basinwide to these old eyes. Definitely not Modoki.

I am amazed at how wrong you can be about so many things!! No wonder you didn't know the difference between a Watch and a Warning! Amazing A couple other duds: Why would I be "vehemently against climate change" when it has been non-stop for millions of years! As far as "knowing more than studied meteorologists", that is hilarious!!! I like nothing more than learning from a true professional. Voretex 95 is highly intelligent and made fantastic contributions to the discussion yesterday. I only wish that he could find the time to make daily contributions. Cape? Well, he used to be contributory at times. More and more as he gets older, he gets his kicks by trying to be the bulldog on the block. Mental issues I guess. Stay straight, study hard and one day you may be a fine met. My disappointment yesterday was that several months ago, considering your desired course in life, I thought I could occasionally begin to learn from you. I just have to be patient.

To be fair, the 'white' region is 'equal chances' which pertains to either above or below normal. I think what trips people up is both the structure of the curves of those, plus the colorization. both inspire warm(cool) depending where the orientations layout. But, that product isn't scalar cold or hot. It's purely a probability. And the below area? that's not overwhelmingly high odds for below, either. So scoring this based purely on probability, that's not really a fail. It's certainly not good. But it's not an F

My COOP site (RSTM2) has never hit 100° either.

That's historic here in NJ. Ridge axis being a bit west could spare New England from 100s.

Just imagine the masterpiece of a symphony Beethoven could create based on the unison of hums from all of the A/C's that will be cranking full-throttle and non-stop for the next foreseeable future.

IMHO, one better have darn good reason and solid model agreement when forecasting all-time record events. esp. several days out. You don't just pick the most extreme scenario b/c that grabs the attention more to drive the hazard home. It is better to start more modest and work your way up as the fcst details become clearer. When you start at the top, it's very hard to come back down b/c of the viral nature of things on social media. And really, we know its going to very hot, so "piling on" tends be counterproductive (the apathy factor, and ppl get wise and say, "is it really that bad/dangerous b/c we've had 100+ before, and did just fine overall). This is not being snarky, the hype pushes things like one should not even go outside at all b/c it is so "dangerous" b/c it is 100 F. How did we ever survive as a society prior to this in-your-face danger hype or before AC, for that matter! The problem is the media doesn't act on a "linear scale." It's like if the temp hits 100, somehow that is *so* much worse or extreme than 99, when it is only b/c 100 is a power of 10 and a more psychologically satisfying value. That is meaningless as to sensible wx impact. Another example? A piece of crap low pressure gets named a TS, and it is like end of days to the media, when typical winter storms are *far* more impressive and powerful than a weak sheared TS.

Braun Bay might be 98.6 by Monday, and not because of urine either!

I know there is a risk, but right now I’d say 87-94 with a risk for shwrs/storms late day. I looked at everything and maybe there could be a risk the afternoon’s wettwr, but nothing stands out to me as a disappointment for the holiday right now.

Database issue causing widespread NWS web page problems. IT continues to work on it to get all restored.

Inferno through Monday. What a holiday weekend. Wow.

0.23 inches of rain yesterday.

I topped out at .66" for the event.

What’s your forecast for Saturday?

Yes, the media thrives on sensationalism like oh my goodness , this has never happened before. And, millions of dunces believe it.