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Don, once you adjust normals upward to take into account GW, is deep cold still about as common as it ever was?

Will use this in some of my argumentative essays for my modern political theory class. Thank you

You were sooooo close

Ride the chart! The frostiest ones you can find!!

Btw for those trying to understand PSU's argument about higher heights in the 500mb layer as a result of climate change here are some slides from my fall course about how geopotential height works. Basically, higher heights are caused by a thicker slice of atmosphere below the 500mb layer. Warmer air is a thicker slice of air due to the Ideal Gas Law.

Light snow in Mammoth Mtn ski resort!!! It's been 5 weeks since the last snow lol https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam

You serious? Depends on the situation. For example I’ve been forced to advocate for positions I knew were weak and not clear winning arguments. What you do in those cases is very different. Then it becomes about minimizing damage. Attempting to deflect and exaggerate. But if you know the point you want to make is valid…1) focus on 2-3 points no more. 2) know how to articulate it clearly. 3) don’t let the other person deflect. When they try to take the debate off on a tangent redirect and reframe it back where you need it.

I saw the alert pop up on my phone in the ESPN app. Wasn’t it Detroit where the players fought the fans years ago? Or am I misremembering?

I honestly think he is the master debater in this Country.

Because the PNA isn't neutral

ok so why aren’t we getting marginal setups anymore!

Mhm probably the best advice, but supposing you had to what would you say.

Yeah I saw a decent amount of crosshair sig. pretty cold soundings overall for a storm coming from this direction. Wonder if the sludgy low level cold that has seemed to entrench over New England is helping juice this a little bit. Forcing a little more lift on the WAA.

Don’t

I don't think it's a marginal setup at all..

This pic was taken this afternoon of the south side of my driveway. This is the first day that the entire driveway has been almost clean. The grass is a completely different story, and the sleet is going nowhere fast. We’ll see what 60s can do tomorrow. Two inches of sleet hangs around forever…

Interesting BTV tidbit if Wednesday doesn’t go above freezing… then you start to get into a solid streak. In Burlington, the last day with a temperature breaking 32 degrees was January 22nd; sub-freezing temperature streaks surpassing 21 days are fairly unusual in the Burlington area, last happening January- February 2015 and only occurring 20 times going back across the last 141 winter seasons.

You can tell how dry it’s been across the US when the weather channel has only names like 8 winter storms this season (tied with last season as a record low) for so late in the season. Even in ratter winters, it hasn’t been nearly as dry as 2025 and 2026 winters across the US. I’m not complaining because we have more snow this year than last several years. But really goes to show how dry it’s been since Fall 2024 across most of US. Maybe due to 2 La Nina’s in a row ?

Soundings were decent too.

Feb-March's 2018-2026 so much more -PNA than the past.. like 160% of number 2. That's interesting! Maybe it has something to do with temps starting to get warmer after Jan 27th, and the start of the rise to spring right after? It's something interesting to watch this Feb-March too.. does the 8-year trend persist?

Yea but if heights are higher now, and the are, when the pacific configuration is hostile it’s more hostile. That’s my whole point. We don’t her marginal anymore. We get either good or hopeless which means the marginal part of our past snow climo is now missing. You’re so close but you’re twisting yourself into a pretzel to ignore the common threads tying this all together.

For those wondering yes this is how we know we're in true midseason form. BTW @psuhoffman what's your advice for debating people.

100% haha. My other half says that's too far from "things"... Alas, so ideally like within ~20-30 minutes of the general Boone/Blowing Rock or Asheville area.