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It's like when you turn the heat to your house up to 90 degrees. It's never been at 90 before, it's uncharted territory!

November. Time to start looking for the first flakes. Everything in my garden is still alive, tomatoes still healthy lol. +QBO/East-based Nino runs warm for November. Usually that's because of a cold Stratosphere, but it looks like this Nov we have a warming, followed by the long range models strengthening SPV for December. Imo, the pattern associated with -PDO is currently displacing ENSO/N. Pacific pattern eastward - models have -150dm in the PNW In Nov which is not typical of El Nino. Here is today's CPC forecast for November Analog-wise, Nov departures for the CONUS have 57% correlation to DJFM (filtering out global warming). Without filtering global warming it's about 66%.

The oaks this year are great. I hate them for what they do to my yard, but they have pushed the grey drab winter colors out another few weeks. Cheers.

We likely have a shot or two in early December with some CAA behind a cold front. It’s hard to get the park below 32 on radiational cooling nights so that’s the only way we are getting it done. .

21:50 dt talks about a wet storm around the 6th of november.

What a turn around. High of 81 yesterday and had to turn on the AC. Today high of 70. Beautiful fall day here.

if they are correct, yeah. no winter for a long time

It’s a death knell

weeklies don't look blocky at all. violent pacific jet for weeks and weeks

Thanks very much. Going to be past 11/21 this year I believe. Looks like latest first 32 or lower was December 22, 1998. Doubt it takes that long but i wouldn't rule it out completely depending on how things evolve late November into early December. Per NWS: Climo normal first 32 or lower is right around 15th of November.

Euro back to super wet end of the week. See if gfs follows suite

Just a thought on the not so normal Nino.. I just returned from another trip to FL (Flagler Beach area this time) and it certainly wasn't like a normal Nino fall 10 days for there, at least as I remember them when I lived down there. The locals were all talking about the same thing, the crazy amount of beach loss in the last month. The weather pattern along the NE coast has been dominated by cutoff after cutoff TUTT's just sitting over the Bahama's. The resultant gradient has tore the beaches to hell worse than any recent brushes with tropical systems. I am very familiar with that area and the Left Coast beaches due to my familial roots down there and I can attest the constant 25 to 40KT NE winds were just battering the beaches. Its the worst erosion I've ever seen on the NE coast of FL. 8-15 footers breaking on the beach the entire time I was there (and the locals said it was doing the same for weeks before that). My mother is about 1/4 mile from the beach proper and you could here the pounding of the waves like they were right outside the window and the wind was nonstop. It reminded me of Hurricane Elena in '85 when it just set 50-100 miles NW of the Left Coast barrier Islands and tore the hell out of us 4 or 5 days. As far as the coast up there it was as bad as a hurricane hit (which that area is notoriously immune to) only strung out over a month (and continuing). Minus the wind though it was amazingly pleasant with temps mirroring those up here (a tad warmer at night, but not much). I was actually cold many of nights and put on a sweatshirt! Moist cool air blowing 40 off of a fairly chilly (compared to the GOM) Atlantic and it was like Charleston SC in winter lol. Didn't mean to get off topic but that is definitely not a normal response for FL from an El Nino. I mean very abnormal as usually an El Nino will pump the ridging over the Bahama's in the fall and keep the tropical season going well into December. Anyway, I ramble lol, but I do agree the weather patterns have been a bit wonked and not "El Ninoish" so far. While many are hyping the potential moderate winter up here temp wise, as you said in an earlier post and I agree, our sub "should" be much more influenced by the powerful southern jet Nino's "usually" generate bringing some milder but more importantly potentially moisture laden air masses up our way. All it takes is for that northerly 0 line to shake hands with it and it's on. May not stick around all winter but who cares as long as we get some lol. For some reason I always think Nino years bring us the best potential for a big dog if some cold air can creep S even for a short period. There's usually moisture hanging around just begging to get turned into frosty flakes! Sorry for the ADD ramble lol

Late November when the PNA is positive the NAO negative and you are revisiting the Thanksgiving of yore you will know. FYI watch that full moon tide its as strong a current as it gets. If... we can stir up a beast Noreaster.....

Mean First 32° or Below in NYC: 1961-1990: November 11 1991-2020: November 20 2000-2025: November 21

November DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 2.8 3.2 3.1 4.5 1.6 0.1 1.8 1.1 3.1

October is finishing with a mean temperature of 59.1° (1.2° above normal) in New York City. That was also 2.2° above the earlier 1981-2010 baseline. Temperatures will rebound to the 60s tomorrow. Unseasonable warmth will continue through much of the first week of November. Dry conditions will likely persist until late next week. Some of the guidance suggests the potential for a 1.00" or greater rainfall next Thursday into Friday. Overall, the preponderance of seasonal guidance suggests that November will be warmer to much warmer than normal across the region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.4°C for the week centered around October 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +5.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.22°C. ENSO Region 3.4 breaks the all-time record most recently set in the prior week. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -4.97 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.945 today.

Both Delaware https://chescowx.com/raw-vs-ncei-delaware/ and New York State https://chescowx.com/raw-vs-ncei-new-york/ are now up and availabe with raw vs anomaly vs NCEI figures charts and trends.

November DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.6 1.7 2.1 3.1 0.9 1.6 1.6 2.8 0.4