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  2. Amazing how the haves and have-nots really lock in for a particular season across a relatively small region. I remember some recent springs where Madison was among the "have-nots" while nearby parts of northern IL, eastern IA or central WI got repeated rounds of precipitation and it sure was annoying.
  3. I need to clarify something. Those are years that I listed. I went back and modified the post to prevent any more confusion. So, that wasn’t a huge 2 day jump from May 22nd to May 24th. Rather, that was a huge jump from May of 2022’s hottest of 87.3 to May of 2024’s hottest of 92.3. Also, this 92.3 of 5/29/24 was 4.9 warmer than the avg of the hottest in Mays of 2005-22 as well as 2.2 warmer than that for any other May back at least to 2005.
  4. Dumb gas lighting argument Where did he say Montauk? There would be big heat if there was a ridge yes...what can't you understand about that?
  5. Looks like another 2% MCV threat popped up for the WI/IL stateline region on the Day 2 outlook (marginal was way down in S MO on yesterday's Day 3 outlook). SPC is on top of this one so it probably won't do anything.
  6. really montauk would hit 100's
  7. Another beautiful sunny 70 degree on tap, garden looking great
  8. I just need this wx to last long enough for me to refinish my back deck. It was already bad when I got the house and it’s even worse now. Gotta find the time…
  9. I know your post is focused on KW (for good reason, huge 2 day jump) but look at the entire Atlantic. It’s effin boiling! I cannot look at this map without being alarmed for our futures, not to mention our local snowfall prospects.
  10. And we don't care about you. So there...
  11. 70 / 57 and looking mostly cloudy today but should be dry. Upper 70s / low 80s. Clear out tomorrow after an isolated AM shower and warm in the mid to upper 80s. Overall near normal with trough into the NE the next week - no heat (90s) as it looks now. Ran/ showers Wed - Thu before clearing out by Friday. Still chance trough cuts off in the period 6/7 - 6/9. Warmer by mid month.
  12. I’d expect the heat and dews to arrive in earnest July/August. Not only is that the climatological peak (duh) but I’d expect we see the continental pattern response from the building Nina then. It obviously won’t be the blowtorch I’d expect to see in the Midwest, but warm to hot and especially humid in its own right. Talking about CT I don’t care about anywhere else lol.
  13. Today
  14. They don't look hot and dry.
  15. Thank you for posting this information. The rankings make clear that Heller's chart is inaccurate. I went to the tool and exported the data. Just 0.3% of the stations were 4th lowest in terms of the number of 80F days through May 31. There is no plausible way 2024 ranked fourth lowest.
  16. If you look back at every -NAO/-AO winter over the last 44+ years, since 1979, every single one of them occurred at a solar minimum, with a low number of sunspots and low geomag…..Without any exceptions. I don’t think we need to be at the exact peak of this solar max for it to be hostile to AO/NAO blocking. The high solar flux/high sunspots/high geomag alone argue very strongly against any sustained blocking in those domains this winter. That said, some experts are predicting that this solar max cycle peaks this winter/early next year. This should be an interesting one to watch
  17. My new truck is at Wally Park, so was extremely curious. Guess I will know for sure on Tuesday!
  18. We're still well above average. Average highs are in the upper 70s right now Imagine if we had a ridge right now, there would be 100s
  19. I'm calling BS on the chart, a typical Tony Heller cherrypick. The charts below shows rankings for 80F days this year and the departure from normal for high temperatures. The only area that didn't reach 80 was Alaska. Most of the US has had an average or above average number of 80F days this year and almost the entire US had average or above average high temperatures. Its been a warm year so far. Tony picked the best stat he could find to hide it.
  20. 2024 Severe Seasonal Forecast.... I hope I am wrong.
  21. I think slight variations on this pattern could last most of the summer. I'm not looking for much heat but if there is some most of it from mid July to mid August. Then we'll see the tropics perk up with most vulnerable areas IMO the Gulf Coast, southeast U.S. coast, and islands in the tropics. I'm looking for early recurvature thinking that all features will be slightly south and east of their usual position on the maps. WX/PT
  22. No LSRs and no news reports mentioned DIA, although the climate report for 5/30 said hail was observed during that storm. If they didn't receive damaging hail, it was mighty close. If the storm had been 8 miles further northeast, we'd have many many millions in damage to cars and airplanes. I would kind of like to see how sizable hailstones bounce off that big tent over the terminal...
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