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Not sure ... For whatever method, those are probabilities tho. For whatever metrics they're weighting, not the actually anomalies like this sentence intimates: "One thing I notice a lot is the CPC seems to overdo sfc temp anomalies." I blame CPC - most people misconstrue that product. In fact, I've pointed this out on this site, to the same individuals who continue to do so LOL ... and it doesn't seem to register. They probably - or should ... but who knows - provide an explanation/methodology statement somewhere in their web access. They do have a contact option. The only thing they have is a confidence/probability by forecaster, but don't delve into what the forecaster is actually looking over.

68.8/49.3 at 2:30 pm with cloudy skies on ENE breezes. Had some sprinkles about two hours ago and looks like some heavier/moderate is on the way glancing at radar from the north.

Yes but based on what? 500 mb heights? Do they even factor in marine influences? And objectively, given the surface pattern in this case, it looks more like near normal or leaning below. You have to wonder how much manual adjustment is made, or is it just straight model output averages like the NBM. The public and even some mets don't see these outlooks as probability. They often see the warm color, and think temps will be above avg this period. I've even seen some clueless OCMs state when there is big cold probability bulls-eye present, "the polar vortex will be here!"

I think the difference between this rain threat coming up for Sunday and the Memorial Day weekend event is that the Memorial Day weekend event brought meaningful rain. The potential rainfall this coming Sunday will be more meaningless but just enough to F up a weekend day. Looks like 1/2" or less for most spots based on the more reliable model guidance. We'll see how it plays out but it does not look overly wet IMO.

Coworker weather

look

Wanna to bet?

Wednesday Morning, June Chill

those aren't scalar anomaly ranges ... They're probabilities for being above(below) at all... scaled.

I saw a dead cub at exit 8 on 89 this morning.

Nino 3.4 was unchanged at +0.5 in yesterday’s release. The other 3 regions warmed 0.1. I’m expecting 3.4 to be a few ticks warmer in the next weekly release as a typical delayed reaction to the start of the SOI drop a couple of weeks ago. 20MAY2026 1.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 27MAY2026 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.7

One thing I notice a lot is the CPC seems to overdo sfc temp anomalies. They see above avg 500 mb heights and just run w/ that. Well, we don't live at 18,000 ft. The 6-10 day outlook looks too warm for much of the E. The 500 ridge axis stays W of the Appalachians, so that promotes frontal passages often in NW flow, strong sfc highs either N/NW or over the area, and frequent sea breezes or synoptic onshore flow. Look at the GFSX MOS from Sunday on, that's below avg temps eastern sections of New England and near avg for western/inland sections at best.

Of note Spring of 2026 was the 14th warmest Spring since 1893 - conversely Winter 2025-26 was our 14th coldest! Our weather does have a way of balancing out! Below is our Spring Temperature trends since 1893....only some slight warming evidenced by the data.

Since 1893 we have seen a cooling trend during the month of May here in Chester County PA

Looking ahead to 26/27 winter here is more evidence of a Modoki El Nino developing similar to 2009-2010 - time will tell...

Of note here in the philly burbs of Chester County PA Spring of 2026 was the 14th warmest Spring since 1893 - conversely Winter 2025-26 was our 14th coldest! Our weather does have a way of balancing out! Below is our Spring Temperature trends since 1893....only some slight warming is shown.

Of note here in the philly burbs of Chester County PA Spring of 2026 was the 14th warmest Spring since 1893 - conversely Winter 2025-26 was our 14th coldest! Our weather does have a way of balancing out! Below is our Spring Temperature trends since 1893....only some slight warming is shown.

hard to do that in winter

70.8/35 We need to pump those dews up

I'm getting another round of showers this afternoon and 60 behind the cold front. We're going to need to clear out this afternoon if we have a chance at the upper 40s in the morning!

Just large enough to be able to radiate and decouple from the ocean influence. They’re like their own little mesohigh on mornings like that. There must be a 360° landbreeze around the entire island. lol

Yeah. All of that is going to happen plus fish will be living out of water and mosquitos will bite themselves. It’s going to be crazy!!

Cansips was good last winter where the CFS 2 had a torch, but yea every Super Nino is warm. We will have to wait to see how warm