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The haze / air quality was very noticeable in the ridge/valley region. Dampened my leaf spotting vibe. Just about peak in Alleganey / Washington counties.

Nobody is arguing that it won’t stretch or split. But the vibe coming from all this acts like a colonial winter is coming.

The ECMWF still has a SSW reversal (60N) on November 4th,may be the earliest I've ever seen.Anyways I'd watch for an - AO tanking middle/late November.

May have to be careful here…not sure. Once METAR took over in 1996 everything went to <= 12kft ceilometer observations. A few of the larger airports did augment higher levels in, but I’m not sure how consistent that has been. BOS has had a 25kft ceilometer for awhile now, and does consistently augment, but I’m not sure how the high level coverage compares to the pre ASOS days with manned SA obs. At least Fish was smart enough to use BOS. @vortex95 would probably know more on that Here’s CON. A big “drop off” in cloudiness in 1996 once the ceiling reporting stopped at 12kft. It’s pretty stupid seeing obs reported as CLR/Fair when it’s totally overcast at 15kft.

Yeah I saw that… the AI has been flagging that period for a few runs. Not necessarily cold but something interesting.

It is going to take a LOT to overcome the Pacific influences. The other thing too is it looks like the brunt of strongest influences from what may transpire with the PV will be more over Europe than our side of the Globe

Dont you people ever get tired of the endless rains? October 2024 was perfect any socalled wild fires aren't a problem here outside of August 1995. This isn't California. And this weather is exactly what we need. Yes temporarily. There can be a lot of southern branch moisture but it doesn't mean it will come north. It didn't in 1965-66 and it didn't in 2001-02 I envision it hitting the Carolinas and Virginia not up here thankfully. LOSE WEIGHT Dont be so sure that will happen and if it does it will be a small blip and this pattern will return in a modified form by later December into January.

I texted my daughter this and she only responded “lol yeah I saw”

If we had some blocking or maybe Bering Sea ridging then it’s possible we could see impacts, but we will be fighting the Pacific influence.

Really all this strat PV hoopla because of some 10mb charts I mean come on lol

Some see super Nino and just automatically fixate on that one aspect.

Lol https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/50301954/maryland-offers-shot-free-tuition-staying-4th-vs-illinois

December is going to surprise even the most seasoned prognosticator. More and more evidence showing up.

So many cutoffs from the fantasy GFS with a bubble over the N GLs. Then a 960mb hurricane hitting E Cuba and moving NE to E of the Bahamas lol. Fantasy range hasn't been this fun in a long time

Yup...looking like we may see things get a bit active...could be some good news for some of the ski areas within the West too. Noticed too systems will be flying across the country

congrats everyone -( FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY ) !!!

Yeah, poor air quality was notable today compared to the past 9 days of blue cloudless skies.

Banger of a weather run we're on. I look forward to a week of drizzle in the near future.

I will say the pattern on the EPS and AI EPS is a little interesting regarding storminess later in the 11-15 day.

December looks warm on that, but that seems to be the call from many.

Just commenting in a vacuum without what implications this pattern may have for Winter weather later, this has been an amazing stretch. I've been thoroughly enjoying the comfortable days and cool crisp evenings and nights, and overall dry days. Looks great for remaining football game / senior night and all the Halloween events. Also barely a need to run the furnace, house warms up enough in the evening and stays comfy until the next day.

the science is sound, they don't need to "like" accept OR disprove anything else is delay, deny, distract; it's tiring

El Nino continues to strengthen. The latest from the Climate Prediction Center: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml