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Model sounding here for 18z is nearly 5000 SBCAPE, 87/76 T/Td, and PWAT of 2 inches. Charged! Already felt quite juicy out tonight.

Are you referring to Thursday? Because I am seeing/wondering same. The convection isn't quite as large/robust at the very end of run but a bit more discrete than earlier models

Am I reading this wrong, but does the HRRR also want to keep things discreet going into the metro?

There were some bands of virga with nearly nothing so no 10mm at 5pm, now its 9 where I was suppose to get heavy storms; I see overcast and now light showers . For nearly a week out 2 agencies forecasting storms all aft and eve, and I don't even hear thunder. Storms nixed for Weds as well. I love these busts.

45F to 85F today… nice crisp morning, followed by deep summer mid-80s. Fantastic day.

Thanks. Its the best. Still unpacking but getting there Stay cool in the heat!

yep and wow very cool to hear. thanks for sharing. glad to hear you are pursuing it at that level. will continue to have a lot of importance ahead.

Wait. You're the capital weather gang Ian right? I want you all at capital weather gang to know you're a large part of how I've learned meteorology. I remember my 5th grade teacher let me read the articles from her laptop and that being my first exposure to real forecasting (outside of books I managed to find). I can recall how I'd wait for the updates before each snowstorm and trying to figure out the storm breakdowns based on the guides about Miller A vs B vs inland track storms CWG published. It was comments on those articles which was how I even found this forum (which I've mentioned before as invaluable and some place I love). Now I'm now majoring in Environmental Science and plan to take every atmospheric science course I can (already took the base one and one about microclimatology); I've even managed to learn the processes behind some of the articles the team has published, but I will always be your teams debt. Thank you both for the important forecasting/media outreach you all do to keep people safe, and for making science interesting.

yeah that could be cool. I sort of half pitched way back when JT started but was post Jason as editor etc. was looking at your website recently.. you guys should give us a data feed to integrate stuff. also started at umgc in Feb as writer/editor.. university system of maryland buddies.

That is one spicy bow echo on the Hrrr tomorrow afternoon.

It was intentional. PS...shameless content plug but @wxmeddler and I are always available for an article on the mesonet if you're looking for local.

Deep summer is on hiatus after this weekend UFN.

Doesn’t this curve look mean? I’m not so sure that fugger’s gonna hook before it top dawgs

December 92 was a rough one. But yeah Feb 2021 was brutal. March 01 was ok here. The month at least produced. We don’t talk about Dec 00 and Feb 01.

Haha it’s not him.

Whenever you all come up in conversations, everyone still has the local love for what you do. Think you guys have done a good job of getting the word out so far and hope you all get a comfortable amount of paying subscribers soon, if you don’t already have enough. A truly good, local daily forecast is worth the fee for those who want to support.

It's been interesting to see how universal the feeling is. Pretty wild how the owner managed to crush the local love so well.

Excited to support you all going forward, even as just a matter of principle. Will be nice to read the articles again after being unwilling to throw the money down for the WaPo paywall. Best of luck! Will be making sure those around me know how to find the gang.

Hai @Ian

Friends, people I've never seen before: Good to see my password still works here. I think of many of you often... too bad the internet is so fractured these days. Anyway, in case you have not heard I wanted to share the news that Capital Weather has been freed from Bezos. After a year+ of planning, https://www.capitalweather.com/ re-launched as an independent entity at the end of May and we officially launched today. I'd be glad to hear any thoughts from folks around here since y'all are of course the type of folks we're looking to hook.

And yet those guys still forecast off the GFS

lol gjge

With inflation, I've figured out the following regarding Energy trading and the coming Winter: Natural Gas price >$5.00, more likely -NAO Winter Natural Gas price <$5.00, more likely +NAO Winter Natural Gas price >$10.00, very high likelihood of -NAO Winter Natural Gas price <$2.50, very high likelihood of +NAO Winter Natural Gas is currently trading at $3.13. December '26 contract, $4.01. March '27 contract, $3.21. Top 10 Most positive Natural Gas Winters since 1996, relative to inflation trend: ^ Average price per Winter of those years: ~$6.00 Top 12 Most negative Natural Gas Winters since 1996, relative to inflation trend: ^ Average price per Winter of those years: ~$2.60 In January 2026, the price of NG jumped from $3.12 to $7.40 as a really cold pattern set in. This was forecasted ahead of time by the CPC with no market reaction until it was days to weeks away. This cold period was associated with the 4th longest on record (since the early 1900s) that Baltimore had more than 4" of snow on the ground. The price then collapsed back to $3.40 in early February, and $2.80 by late February, and then March 2026 ended up being the warmest month relative to average on record for the CONUS, all time. There is a little lead in the NG price, but also sometimes weather patterns are a surprise.

Good luck