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Flurries here. We are a true snow town. Some squalls tomorrow as well. You guys keep looking towards mid January, I'm going to enjoy whats right in front of us.

So awesome! Sounds like you all are having a great time! Keep the pics coming! It's likely the only snow I see this winter....

Have to imagine the timing of it all on New Years Eve and people out driving impacts the language being used.

I’m liking the new and more assertive/confident Seymour. You’ve blossomed into a knowledgeable, insightful MET. I’m honestly not trying to sound condescending, but I’m proud of you pal. I mean that sincerely.

Models have not done well in the mid-long range this winter, which might sound like a captain obvious thing to say but typically they’ll get a general idea of the overall pattern in the 6-10 day range. I don’t personally think the highly touted AI models have done notably better either. I’m sure it’s an expectation thing with folks that with everything available that forecasting just HAS to get more accurate. My opinion on AI modelling is while I’m sure it excels at pattern analysis, it’s still only as good as the initial data/information you’re putting into it. Which basically puts it in the same boat as the standard physics based models. You still need accurate observation data/sampling, and preferably.. the more data points the better. Anyways, I think the high changeability on modelling stems from a few things like blocking (NAO), which models never do well with. MJO is also in the null phase and forecast to remain there for the foreseeable future, so there’s no real coherent signal from that realm. I’d be more willing to buy what the MU guy is trying to sell about January if we were staring down a strong and long lasting pulse into phases 4-6, but we’re not. Another reason is simply our general area has been in a spot where the high variability of the models has had the biggest impact on actual forecast weather differences. I did originally like the storm potential around the 8th/9th a few days ago, but I do believe the models are starting to register on the EPO and WPO going positive in that timeframe to go with a -PNA. The WPO has been solidly negative the last few weeks and a big reason why there’s been plenty of cold available in Canada. That’s probably going to overcome the -NAO and is why we’re now seeing eastern ridging and a more rainy looking scenario with systems around then. But that doesn’t look to last, we keep the negative NAO and the WPO/EPO is forecast to go right back negative. So while that period next week isn’t looking as great, I think things still tend to look at least seasonably cold overall in the longer term and we’ll have opportunities. My big issue with this winter has been actual storms (Gulf sourced/coastal), we’ve had a real lack of them this season dating back through the fall.

I used that word last Saturday

Ya…he’s a bit much. Everything is a bomb. And Major Major impact and implications. Lol…hyping it up for sure.

Reservations should be pouring in after that awful 12z euro.

It's an 80's winter pattern like last year

Ill have to check it out. Anything's better than Direct Weather guy. I just checked that channel since about a year ago and looking at his recently thumbnails make me want to throw up.

It’s snowing here

No worries. 12z Euro has fresh Canadian air headed our way at the end of the run. Lol

Euro has it too May have to set the alarm for an hour and half sleep to see the squall

I think a valuable lesson sometimes I forget too is regardless of the pattern modeled, if there is an outlier amongst the big three ensembles, you can't just toss it, regardless of model biases. The GEFS never really bit on the mega west based block, we assumed it would trend towards the EPS as it usually does, however the opposite ended up being true. When a highly anomalous pattern is modeled, we need to see all three major ensembles on board for a few days for me to believe it.

OP Euro today is kind of weak sauce on warmup as well. Not as much as Skynet....it does get pretty mild for a couple days, but no torching cutters....the 1/10 system bombs into the lakes but is more like a SWFE with snow/ice in CNE/NNE....SNE might be mixed to 35F rain in that scenario. But it just shows there's a lot of uncertainty even in a mild-ish longwave pattern. Early January is a good time to try and get away with a warmer longwave pattern.

Euro long range OP says don't expect any warmth around mid month - is it right or wrong ? Anyones guess

Absolutely lol. We're having a good time up here at snow camp. We just got nuked by a intense band. Heaviest snow I've ever seen. We got about 2 feet in the past 4 hours lol. I'll never look at snow in the lowlands the same ever again. I'm pretty sure I'm buying a house up here to live in during winter. The economy around here depends on it. There's endless snowmobile trails. It's heaven.

Yes for sure. Can’t trust anything out there in the medium even. And the long range, flip a coin maybe .

Agree. If we can kick off cold with a big storm than get a cold clipper pattern, that's all good.

I dunno tomorrow will be windy with a nasty squall potential in the early morning

0.3" of snow then some freezing drizzle. Second round of snow this afternoon/evening looks better. We are nickel and diming like a boss so far this winter lol.

NAM info: Just an fyi... from a valuable NWS resource: I have paraphrased recent probable changes. The NAM, for all of its issues, tends to have better forecasts of both low-level cold air and vertical profiles for these winter cases. The eventual (could still be 2026) replacement for the NAM will be the RRFS and the RRFS ensemble (which will replace the HREF). Anecdotally, the RRFS seems to provide decent guidance for winter weather elements, but there will be a more intensive look at this during this season's Winter Weather Experiment. I'll close the Dec 2025 thread Friday... I think the stratwarm probably had a favorable wintry impact here in the northeast USA though I never know for certain. Researchers can conclude via their postmortem.

The medium to long range skepticism cuts both ways for me. While the bias has been toward too much punching up warmth, we have to watch those exotic cold/favorable solutions too. Models just seem a step above rudderless imo.

Said that last night..guy is good-the real deal.