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He’s probably right regarding social media. But it has been discussed fairly widely here.

It’s pretty good. Can get boring after a while though, so sometimes I go in

I've been shafted, as well....last normal snowfall season was 2017-2018....haven't come within 10" since.

Also re long range: trash the GFS, all of us need to. It performed miserably this tropical season. It might’ve been the least reliable global. I’ll take a gander at the ensembles for this winter but the OP needs to hold as much credence as the Icon at range.

I mean one day we will have that pattern in place again but for the last few winters it’s been uniquely set up to shaft this area. The results speak for themselves.

I'm so pissed I forgot to incorporate the MJO behavior of my primary analog into the December forecast....what an oversight.

Agree on all points. I’ve got a good feeling about this winter. I think we muster at least one good storm that gets us to climo. The models NEVER showed a cold SE the first week/week and a half of Dec. Idk why there are so many conversations online about can kicking. A few OP runs tried to anchor the cold prematurely and now people are over worried about what the GFS and Euro ops show beyond 300 hrs. It’s just noise. Phase 7 is going to do phase 7 things. The ridge will flex a bit and all of this is going to be a step down process like it always is. We went through this same song and dance last December and it ended up being the coldest winter in a while, too much so, in fact. It was suppression city after Christmas. I think after we see a few cutters, my gut says it’s game on beyond Dec 15th just based on where the MJO is likely headed. And that’s fine. I’m not a huge fan of pissing phase 8 and potentially phase 1 down the pot from Thanksgiving to Christmas. It’s going to take a really high amplitude pass through those phases to deliver in what’s essentially late fall. I like what I’m seeing line up. I think this pattern offers some future potential for something we haven’t seen a lot through the years: anchored highs in favorable locations and storms riding the boundary to the south.

I've seen plenty of acknowledgement that early December will warm again before the hammer drops.

Did you get my DM?

Eric Webb @webberweather It’s easy to spot Convectively Coupled Kelvin waves (blue dashed lines) propagating quickly thru the mjo envelope (black dashed line) the next few weeks on the forecast VP200a Hovmöller (left) This is largely why you’re seeing these loop-de-loops on the RMM phase plots (right)

If the mets are right with our window only being Dec 1-15 before it warms again.. it’s another warm holiday period

Another morning in the teens here, 18.9°F was the low, Been on a run of teens low 20's for the past 7 days or so.

This is a wonderful site for people to get lessons from and implore many folks to check it out. There are a few tropical courses that touch on this subject of SPV and MJO propagation that could be very useful. I believe it is still free and no student email is needed. https://www.meted.ucar.edu/

Snowcover and cold both become established in Canada by early December. This should help as the cold gradually pushes South with time.

Anything before mid December is going to require a bit of luck with regards to timing of cold air masses. I know sometimes you exaggerate, but I get it, it feels important to get an early season system to produce at least a few inches for SNE set a good winter vibe.

This is correct. So in QBO-E years it is fairly typical to see a disturbed SPV early on just as we are seeing in November and early December, namely a wave 1 response takes place. QBO-W years tend to have this take place around January leading to a stronger SPV (take last year as an example. The wave 1 response is due in part to a strong MJO passage through phase 3. Within about 2-3 weeks we typically see the passage through phase 7 (which is about where we are). The phase 7 is tricky though because it does not always push into a split scenario but I think we have a better chance with a much more pronounced stratospheric ridging staying in place and strength. I would like to see more negatively tilted troughs into the Atlantic to start to get more excited for that potential, these are the mechanisms to allow for poleward eddy flux versus a deflection as bluewave has noted. The Pacific has shown many negatively tilted troughs over the past few weeks hence the already well pronounced ridge. I hope we can get some type of Scandi ridging in the troposphere as we move into December. This is why I have been saying for awhile now I will wait to see that potential split scenario as we get close to the end of December but this remains to be seen. First let us actually have a push into phase 7 and see how the pattern lands. I will not be surprised to see with this displacement event a brief period of wintry weather in December (mid month area) to us quickly recovering and maybe having an early January 'thaw' type setup.

14 day forecast verification for PNA is pretty bad, more positive of the 14 day forecast...take note moving forward

Domination in the SE by mild/SE ridge in the first half of Dec has been forecasted by the Euro Weeklies for over a week. They’ve been steady as a rock. I’d be very surprised if it isn’t mild in the means. After that it is up in the air though recent runs have been suggesting a weaker version of a SE ridge/slightly warmer than normal for 12/15-21 has been suggested for the SE.

I'd take a continuous series of light to moderate events that don't erode a block, vs one "big dog" storm that melts off in 4 days. Snow-on-snow is the best!

I was just trying to give Scooter something with his gravy.

It’s great when it’s snowing . Really helps the holiday vibes heading into a snowy holiday night . Well that was when it used to snow

You're a lost soul to the realm you were meant to roam. Utqiagvik calls to you. The sun just set at that location and won't rise again until January 22nd.

PNA forecast staying closer to neutral now & not as deeply negative & trends positive in later: And, PNA for the most part keeps verifying above forecasts: FWIW