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Does anyone have any good examples of when the warm front has advanced far north in just a few hours i.e. low central IL to far N IL? It feels like more often than not models will suggest this can happen but often it just stalls or barely retreats north.

def looks like an event that could pay a visit the backyard of many of our regulars

Thank you! I saw in the article they were still assessing in York County, I’ll be curious what they say for that assessment

Seemin' like y'all tryin to will a super phat dope ass nuclear nino

SREF is a garbage model, but a noticable bump Northeast in CAPE at 15z and overall trend, so could see NAM show a little better overlap of instability and shear north. Still going to be a Nowcast tomorrow morning to see how fast the morning storms clear out.

Maybe can score a short “chase” again.

RIP king james

We are still in a dry pattern

System is trending south. Looks like piedmont areas get little to nothing once again. We are hanging on by a thread here in the foothills thanks to recent rain but the water table is still quite low.

Rensselaer would be a good spot to sit and wait IMO

I wanted to make sure that you saw this: (same cell you were watching in York County) https://www.wgal.com/article/pa-ef-1-tornado-confirmed-lancaster-county-nws/71603879

Drive 12 hours in any direction on land and you're still 90 or better

Is that the MD heights trail? If so, did you park on the Va side and have to schlep over to the trailhead? I used to be able to park on the Md side in little nooks when I had my Jeep, but last time I went they had that general area closed off for parking.

The AFD for Chicago is pretty ominous for tomorrow: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LOT&issuedby=LOT&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

12z CIPS guidance is a bit more enthusiastic. One analog that has been persistently showing up in some of the domains on CIPS is 6/21/21

That was a different (I believe 4 hour) product than the 24-hour aggregate being shared widely.

It's a damn shame the Big Boy steam engine isn't coming back west through Harpers Ferry. That would've been an EPIC shot coming out of the tunnel and going over the Potomac.

Thursday looks like clouds and limited CAPE. But wind fields are impressive. Lets enjoy wasted kinematics.

Screwed up earlier...I think I said uncapped Thursday but in fact, we may end up capped given how warm it is aloft. Best chance for anything during the afternoon may be the northern Hudson Valley actually into NNE where the forcing will be stronger and mlvl temps a bit cooler

Lol

Stormnet looks thoroughly less enthuastic about tornado chances than it did yesterday, with the highest being in central-ish Indiana, not sure what it's using to model but that's a strange thing to see.

only 71 here. nice day

History has shown (at least to me living in EMA) that depending on a warm front to break through and clear us out to set us up later is a lot to ask. I can’t even count the times we had solid overcast while I’m desperately wishing the clouds to break and the sun to shine while NYC and the region get pounded..I acknowledge I’m admittedly not exactly in a severe hot bed where I live but that’s been the scenario 8 out of 10 times here.