All Activity

Stein decided to give us rain but webbed feet for storms. I knew this would happen here

I feel like short range models have been especially terrible this season. Parameters look healthy like vortex is saying. Today looks great for some fun imo.

Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 318 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026 PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>058-063-080800- Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield- Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin- Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming- Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Cumberland- 318 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Heavy rain is possible from scattered thunderstorms today which may lead to isolated instances of flash flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Heavy rain is possible from scattered thunderstorms on Saturday again, which may lead to isolated instances of flash flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 318 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026 PAZ059-064>066-080800- Lebanon-Adams-York-Lancaster- 318 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible this afternoon and early this evening. Heavy rain is also possible as well, which may lead to isolated instances of flash flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Heavy rain is possible from scattered thunderstorms on Saturday again, which may lead to isolated instances of flash flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather

At least could you see the FQT LTGIC DSNT NW last night from Weymouth?

NYC just had their 2nd highest dew point of all-time at 79°. Probably some enhancement from being so close to the trees. As other stations weren’t quite as high.

SPC upgraded today to a slight risk for DC metro and points NE

Going to be another swamp arse pants day. Currently 75F /DP 73/RH 97%

I share your confusion about why the HRRR and RRFS have switched to an unenthusiastic solution for this afternoon.

Don’t expect much today and tomorrow. Maybe you get lucky.

We’ve had a few here. Nothing crazy but one was decent. In July. I think you were a bit too far south.

5:00 am thinking about fishing….76 degrees and foggy this morning. DP 69 Stay hydrated today!

Yes stations contaminated with station changes are not suitable references. Myriad station changes are readily apparent on Paul's chart. Just look for a single station with-year-to-year movement different than the others. Between 1941 and 1975, West Chester, Phoenixville, Holtwood and Ephrata all had large station changes making them bad references for Coatesville over that period. However, there's an easy way to turn these stations from bad into good references. Use shorter time periods without station changes. The station changes only effect a small portion of any one station's 35-year record. The other years are untainted. Several examples are posted upthread. Here's another : West Chester's 1970 move using monthly data from Phoenixville and Coatesville as the reference. Both stations were stable in this 3-year period. The West Chester station closed at the end of 1969 and re-opened at a new site in May 1970. West Chester cooled immediately on reopening. The stats show a statistically significant 1.4-1.7F cooling relative to Coatesville and Phoenixville due to the move. This simple analysis only uses 2 reference stations. Many more are available outside of Chester County to further improve the power of the statistics. It is clear that the most important NCEI bias adjustments are highly statistically significant.

00z HRRR shows decent storms this afternoon, but 01-06z, it oddly has very little. The 00 and 06z RRFS is lacking in storm coverage as well. 06z 3 and 12km NAM do show plenty of tstms. Not sure what is going on here. It is not too warm aloft (700 temps 7-8 C and 1000-500 thickness 576-577), flow aloft is slightly cyclonic, and w/ temps maxing in the mid 90s and dews low-mid 70s, I see no reason why tstm coverage should not be sct-bkn. Plenty of instability CAPE 2500-3500, lapse rates better than several days ago up to 6.5 C/km at mid-levels. PWATs around 2" so big rain potential again. Winds aloft kind of MEH. So expect multicellular clusters.

Looking closer, it appears Dolphin's motion may be a Fujiwara from the remains of 13W and the new invest 98W, both to Dolphin's SE. You can see this all on the 00 hr GFS 850 vorticity attached. And in the next week, the GFS really gets carried away (see model loop attached), spinning up several more gyres (and 13W comes back), some or all that could become TCs. This happens every several years when you get a large monsoon trough in the NWPAC. JTWC/RJTD do not always declare these systems, esp. if they are very small, but just b/c they are very small does not mean they are not legit TCs. If anything, the small TCs tend to be stronger than any satellite estimate can provide! 5 named storms at once in the NWPAC has occurred many times, but only 6 at once one time. See table attached.

The OBS make logical sense. Though Dolphin's eyewall has clearly intensified, the expansive sink and spread out low pressure surface trough due to many days of large eyewalls and concentric banding now surround the central vorticity maximum and core (i.e. background pressures are very low around the typhoon's envelope). Dolphin won't increase the overall maxium wind too significantly. However, it will allow strong winds to mix down better in the eye. Still an impressive system regardless if it is not capable of reaching high end typhoon status again.

RORY Yoronjima pressure dropped to at least 938 mb as the eye passed. Since the reports are hourly, the pressure likely got lower. However, the winds are not what one would expect for such a small inner core and low pressure. RORY 070600Z AUTO 11031G42KT 2300 RA BR SCT008 OVC010 //////TCU 28/27 Q0959 RORY 070500Z AUTO 11032G45KT 3300 -RA BR BKN006 BKN010 OVC013 //////TCU 28/27 Q0959 RORY 070400Z AUTO 11031G44KT 1500 RA BR FEW004 BKN007 OVC008 //////TCU 28/27 Q0957 RORY 070300Z AUTO 10040G68KT 0600 RA FG OVC004 //////CB 28/28 Q0951 RORY 070200Z AUTO 06022G33KT 1200 -RA BR FEW003 BKN005 BKN007 //////TCU 29/28 Q0938 RORY 070100Z AUTO 33055G71KT 0200 RA FG SCT004 BKN007 OVC012 //////TCU 28/28 Q0951 RORY 070000Z AUTO 33038G51KT 1300 RA BR SCT006 BKN009 OVC011 //////TCU 28/27 Q0961

Dolphin seems to like that Naha island as its attracted to it moving SSW not just scraping it, but radar shows landfall as it ruffles them down their spine. The eyewall looks to be intensifying as its doing this! This is a situ I don't think anyone ever expected, an unique & tilted landfall. For rarity this may be up there with Dorian's extreme pinhole hitting the Bahamas. Latest frames may have it doing a tricodical wobble and/or stall now. For the past 50 mins since 5z its been grinding on the same spot with the potent eyewall -- who is under that? I think its sub 930mb personally, the organization is markably better than when that obs was taken on that tiny island. Can't believe its still listed at 955mb . I think the obs from Naha will be telling a very different story.

The CAD'y wagon will be around some this winter. Mid Dec, and especially a good part of Jan, and maybe a little in early n late Feb. That's how it's lookin to me.