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  2. Typhoon Tip
    Yeah Chris ...I agree ...I added that exact aspect to that post
  3. GramaxRefugee
    53 low. Pretty good for the lowlands. Downright pleasant.
  4. bluewave
    Even single model forecasts have been missing the magnitudes of the ridges and the warmth underneath. But this is to be expected due to the much lower resolution and nature of long range forecasts beyond 15 days. In our rapidly warming climate there have been many more opportunities for the models to be biased too cold than too warm. So it’s beyond technology of present day weather forecast models to have been able to see the historic 600 dm ridge this week from beyond 5-10 days out.
  5. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  6. LakePaste25
    This was essentially just a slightly east-shifted version of the long term trends of summer in CONUS. The strongest El Niño on record was unable to shake it.
  7. uofmiami
    50.9 in Muttontown & 52.5 in Syosset for lows this morning.
  8. Typhoon Tip
    stating the obvious... any "blend" technique is always going to miss the extreme, unless every member contributing to the mean are unilaterally nailing the result/coincidentally. Since this is never going to be the case, the interquartile members that are middle road and less so, are always offsetting - basic stats. Hence, blend missing the extremes in the west. But part of that is also not really attainable anyway? I don't believe so. Because the heat in the W was very synergistic in nature. It's basically combing a handful of inputs that are going to likely gestalt some gain that cannot really be preascertained. That's how synergistic emergence is... it can't be mathematically predicted in excessively complex systems - at least not yet. Maybe QC will have a say in that some day. But we have the perennial N/A western bulge in the westerlies, on top of a retrograde IA CGT hemisphere, on top of a terrain that promotes heat and then a subsequent bi-product of that is that the heat in turn bulges heights... on top of then even a kind of non-Markovian feedback when the quantum state of the whole system acts like it "wants" to be hot due to memory from aggregate occurrences... Those are some of the parts that are creating an outcome > then just their sum. I guess what I'm asking is, taking out the more extreme/warmest members contributing to any blend, I suspect even those were shy of the scalar ?
  9. wokeupthisam
    41.0°F for the low, already up to 57°F in the sunny spots before 9am. Sugar maple foliage looks healthier than last year at this time despite stein - hoping for good color in the next month.
  10. OrdIowPitMsp
    High of 61 yesterday. Unbelievably the airport only recorded 0.15” of precipitation after models teased 0.50”-1.00” totals for several days. Drought continues to worsen.
  11. bluewave
    The C3S model blend had the general temperature spatial pattern correct for the CONUS this summer. But as usual it was too cool especially where the all-time warmth occurred out West. Plus the ridge axis verified further south which has become a reoccurring theme in recent years. Many outlets that do seasonal forecasting use this blend as the basis for their forecasts which you see online. That’s why it’s a useful piece of guidance even if it often misses the magnitude of the warmth under the ridges. https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/c3s_seasonal/products/c3s_seasonal_spatial_mm_2mtm_3m?area=area06&base_time=202605010000&type=ensm&valid_time=202606010000
  12. Torch Tiger
    Last 80's until February?
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    No argument there, it's initialization of the Pacific, both tropical and mid latitudes, has left a great deal to be desired.
  14. Brian5671
    48 here this AM!
  15. Typhoon Tip
    Just op-ed'ing about the use of 'climate'-based tools in general. No idea what and/or who is performing. Like I said, if the model's adaptive than the criticism's less necessary there. But that's something that seldom - in fact never as far as I'm aware ? - goes on in this 'enthusiast's sophistication', which is reporting about the construct of tools. Comparing it's components ( unit test) against empirically what is actually taking place, whereby confidences have foundations... etc. yeah right...
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Probably at least in part why it's overcooking the Modoki theme.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    CANSIPS is def. underselling 1.2 and 3, though, so I see what you are saying. JAMSTEC probably is, too.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    John, CANSIPS is really only a hair west of the EURO with regard to the orientation of El Nino, at this point.
  19. Typhoon Tip
    Meanwhile the 3.4 sector is at historic levels relative to September +ENSO typology. And I mean somewhere between gaspingly and laughably so ... Kind of hard to think CANSIPs is onto much of anything other than introducing error when 3.4 is the opposite direction of eastern orientation. huh It is what it is I suppose but frankly - and I realize I've excoriated over this in the past... - anything with the letter "C" in the acronym of a model's title rolls my eyes. Unless the C does not stand for Climatology, the given model's machinery has to have some sort of a updated "RONI" analog methodology or it's less useful to me. Obviously ... because we'd be comparing a present day moving goal post on a fixed game field - the two have to change geometry together to be valid... No offense to CANSIPs. LOL if the model's adaptive than fine. But even if so ... the orientation as of the Sep 9 update at CPC just looks like a massive pan-dimension heat bomb from eastern 4 clear to the masses of fish adorning the Peruvian shores. Not sure any sector out there is really crucially 'bigger' in the holistic comparison when the entire thing is nuked like that
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    JAMSTEC and CANSIPS essentially now shaking hands on the east-based orientation of El Nino this winter, but I do think the hemispheric evolution of the European guidance makes more sense. I think the Japs and Canadiens are overselling that second half flip in the seasonal mean.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    The JAMSTEC pulls of the unicorn scenario that I was discussing with @Typhoon Tip in that it's an east-based event that essentially acts as a Modoki due to the residual cool ENSO influence/Pacific basin warmth biasing the forcing west of where one would expect based on a traditional synthesis of the basin. Very similar to what happened in 2023 when it looked like a Modoki at the surface, but ended up heavily MC oriented....forcing pulled westward. Do I want to bet on that actually happening in the seasonal mean? About as much as I want to be locked in thread alone with @forkyfork, BUT it does confirm my early hedge to advise caution to those forecasting a season largely bereft of winter on the east coast once we get to about mid January and beyond. This season appears bipolar to me.
  22. Windspeed
    Though I am certain many that frequent here as tropical enthusiasts and mets are bored stiff, I am not. Several, including [mention=1766]vortex95[/mention] have mentioned the importance of a season like this for data acquisition, trends, and analogs for study and future reference. We aren't just setting a record now. We are shattering it. Clearly, we're in rare territory. With the shear values at record levels across the basin (the exception being pockets of favorablility over the GOM and SE CONUS), we're going to have to consider the potential of null and void development over the MDR and central Atlantic basin persisting into closure of the season. Normally, we get a hybrid system that transitions into a fully symmetrical TC somewhere during October and November. But if the upper-level environment remains status quo, that may not occur this year. Really, the only potential could come from a CAG system during late September and October, but it's going to take some luck. I still do think we get a hurricane in the GOM or WCARIB, but we've only got two months to see that to fruition. Clearly, whatever is transpiring with this record-breaking El Niño is overwhelming whatever has anchored the extended +AMO decadal cycle and shut that down, at least for now.
  23. ineedsnow
    ya I know
  24. bluewave
    This record breaking 600 dm ridge is ridiculous for September.
  25. Today
  26. Damage In Tolland
    Something we’ll all be posting Dec-Morch is how we are all in the 50’s
  27. MarcmmKU
    The southern plains and southeast really can't take a break from the heat. It's like there's a permanent ridge over Oklahoma now.
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