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Sunday could be an inch or two....we'll see. Beyond that it's kind of a disaster on model guidance....I could see another decent SWFE if things eject right, but it could also just end up as shredded mess or warmer if everything is delayed....hard to say. We definitely need to watch the Quebec highs....they've been undermodeled much of the winter in the medium range. That is no guarantee they will continue to be under modeled, but it's something to keep in the back of our minds.

How do we define “stay there”? I guess when you say it will reload late March I took it as going back to the same pattern we’ve been in…which I would clap back with “we just don’t know”. Obviously 60s and 70s this early are always relegated to 1-5 days at most. But there’s been some good warmth stretches in March aside from 2012. I mentioned 98 the other day. 2010 was warm right through all of MAM. 2021 and 2016 had quite a few warm Mar and Apr days too. But yeah, obviously no one is getting daily 60s and 70s in spring. That’s sorta rhetorical.

5 straight months (Dec - Apr) with 10"+ where I was living in Port Jeff, plus some snow in Nov. We may beat the season's snow total someday, but not sure we'll ever see 6 months with snow on LI.

Yes I made it with my own hands

Yeah Dec 2022 Cat 4 always seemed weird but looking closer its a Cat 4 for upper midwest/plains and Cat 1 for Northeast only Jan 25-26th is not on that list https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/maps/rsi/

wet signal has been strong but looks to be the real deal, hope to avoid too much of a miss south situation but i know that area needs rain bad

thats the issue---its not the track....the wave is dying

you can almost see the snow depth decreasing in real time

I would ass/u/me this is your home made forecast ?

It's an interesting op for temperature nerds like me. I'm hugely into the diurnal recovery stuff in the spring... for some weird fetish. ha This snow pack is pervasive and deep, and fresh and white and like a mirror. Albedo is about intense as a second sun... astronauts in orbit have to wear sun glasses when passing proximal out our earth coordinates. That will impede some heating potential in a static atmosphere. But this atmosphere should be moving some... not sure how much that mixing offsets (if any) any of this. There's some competing processes there for negative and positive feedbacks. Interesting. I suspect we are colder at night in the interiors when decoupling these three nights. Where cold accumulation over a cryosphere is deluxe proficient and so forth.. Then in the mornings, calm with nape sun but 900 feet over the tree tops, it's WSW flow moving along at 15 to 20kts.. The NAM sort of suggests this inversion offset to warming potential - tho taken to make the example, only. The BOS FOUS grid 54000843631 00714 182013 43030400 60000785726 00010 162412 42040500 This is Saturday at 12z (7am) and 18z (1pm) for Logan. The wind there ("2013") is SW to WSW at 10 to 15kts in the middle boundary layer..about 500 feet over top the Prudential Tower, at 7am, and persists at 1pm. The set of bold on the right is the temperatures at three sigma levels (distance from the ground in atmospheric pressure): 980 mb, 900 mb, 800 mbs. You can kind of use these as loose proxy for various interpretations, for and against.. In this case, note the 980 ( near the ground), is 03. That means 3C. At 900mb, about mid way up the boundary layer, it is a degree warmer at both intervals. That's proooobably the NAM being "indirectly aware" of the limitation at lowest levels due to albedo feedback. I don't think the model does any kind of discrete environmental initial sampling like physically asking whether atmosphere is standing barefoot on a frozen puddle, but it probably is getting a detection at the grid scale for some limits, some how. I'm not sure... but, with a intense albedo in the region, some limitation intuitively fits. Regardless, Saturday ( and the RH levels in this data above suggests mostly sunny), will have light winds that at times is seemingly calm, with nearing equinox sun power capable of burning Aryan youth. It will be the first day that felt that way since probably last October.

I lost 3" of snow since 0z

Lol…right on cue. What timing.

Some things we do know…no way we warm up to 60’s and 70’s…and stay there…not in mid and late March and April. Wish we did..but we don’t. That we know. (Exception being 2012…which is as rare as a 1995-1996 and a 2014-2015 winter).

It was before my time but does anyone here have a clear memory of the summer of 1982? SUMMER 1982 DAILY WEATHER LOG (HARRISBURG, PA) JUNE 1982 Date | High | Low | Avg | Pcp -------------------------------- 06/01 | 73 | 63 | 68.0 | 2.36 06/02 | 75 | 55 | 65.0 | 0.00 06/03 | 66 | 52 | 59.0 | 0.74 06/04 | 65 | 56 | 60.5 | 0.02 06/05 | 60 | 56 | 58.0 | 1.18 06/06 | 64 | 55 | 59.5 | 0.00 06/07 | 75 | 54 | 64.5 | 0.00 06/08 | 73 | 53 | 63.0 | 0.00 06/09 | 80 | 55 | 67.5 | 0.00 06/10 | 62 | 55 | 58.5 | 0.16 06/11 | 63 | 58 | 60.5 | 0.26 06/12 | 62 | 53 | 57.5 | 0.19 06/13 | 54 | 50 | 52.0 | 1.47 06/14 | 76 | 51 | 63.5 | 0.00 06/15 | 81 | 51 | 66.0 | 0.00 06/16 | 83 | 65 | 74.0 | 1.48 06/17 | 78 | 64 | 71.0 | 0.00 06/18 | 79 | 57 | 68.0 | 0.00 06/19 | 81 | 59 | 70.0 | 0.00 06/20 | 73 | 54 | 63.5 | 0.00 06/21 | 80 | 57 | 68.5 | 0.00 06/22 | 77 | 55 | 66.0 | 0.04 06/23 | 72 | 53 | 62.5 | 0.00 06/24 | 74 | 50 | 62.0 | 0.00 06/25 | 80 | 50 | 65.0 | 0.00 06/26 | 84 | 58 | 71.0 | 0.00 06/27 | 82 | 60 | 71.0 | 0.00 06/28 | 85 | 65 | 75.0 | 0.00 06/29 | 80 | 68 | 74.0 | 0.17 06/30 | 78 | 59 | 68.5 | 0.05 JUNE 1982 SUMMARY: Precipitation: 8.12" (Max 1-Day: 2.36") Means: High 73.8F | Low 56.4F | Avg 65.1F Max Values: High 85F | Low 68F | Avg 75.0F Min Values: High 54F | Low 50F | Avg 52.0F JULY 1982 Date | High | Low | Avg | Pcp -------------------------------- 07/01 | 75 | 52 | 63.5 | 0.00 07/02 | 78 | 50 | 64.0 | 0.00 07/03 | 62 | 58 | 60.0 | 0.52 07/04 | 78 | 55 | 66.5 | 0.00 07/05 | 75 | 58 | 66.5 | 0.00 07/06 | 81 | 56 | 68.5 | 0.00 07/07 | 86 | 64 | 75.0 | 0.00 07/08 | 86 | 68 | 77.0 | 0.07 07/09 | 86 | 68 | 77.0 | 0.00 07/10 | 86 | 66 | 76.0 | 0.00 07/11 | 81 | 69 | 75.0 | 0.00 07/12 | 85 | 63 | 74.0 | 0.00 07/13 | 85 | 59 | 72.0 | 0.00 07/14 | 91 | 63 | 77.0 | 0.00 07/15 | 88 | 72 | 80.0 | 0.00 07/16 | 90 | 70 | 80.0 | 0.00 07/17 | 90 | 73 | 81.5 | 0.00 07/18 | 92 | 75 | 83.5 | 0.00 07/19 | 90 | 73 | 81.5 | 0.00 07/20 | 84 | 71 | 77.5 | 0.08 07/21 | 84 | 63 | 73.5 | 0.00 07/22 | 88 | 59 | 73.5 | 0.00 07/23 | 87 | 70 | 78.5 | 0.00 07/24 | 86 | 62 | 74.0 | 0.00 07/25 | 91 | 62 | 76.5 | 0.00 07/26 | 93 | 70 | 81.5 | 0.00 07/27 | 88 | 73 | 80.5 | 0.64 07/28 | 85 | 68 | 76.5 | 0.92 07/29 | 83 | 62 | 72.5 | 0.00 07/30 | 74 | 63 | 68.5 | 0.01 07/31 | 83 | 66 | 74.5 | 0.66 JULY 1982 SUMMARY: Precipitation: 2.90" (Max 1-Day: 0.92") Means: High 84.2F | Low 64.5F | Avg 74.4F Max Values: High 93F | Low 75F | Avg 83.5F Min Values: High 62F | Low 50F | Avg 60.0F AUGUST 1982 Date | High | Low | Avg | Pcp -------------------------------- 08/01 | 83 | 64 | 73.5 | 0.00 08/02 | 84 | 64 | 74.0 | 0.38 08/03 | 82 | 63 | 72.5 | 0.00 08/04 | 86 | 65 | 75.5 | 0.57 08/05 | 90 | 72 | 81.0 | 0.00 08/06 | 82 | 69 | 75.5 | 0.00 08/07 | 81 | 67 | 74.0 | 0.00 08/08 | 83 | 72 | 77.5 | 0.00 08/09 | 85 | 71 | 78.0 | 0.64 08/10 | 85 | 68 | 76.5 | 0.00 08/11 | 72 | 61 | 66.5 | 0.18 08/12 | 78 | 57 | 67.5 | 0.00 08/13 | 76 | 54 | 65.0 | 0.00 08/14 | 80 | 55 | 67.5 | 0.00 08/15 | 83 | 56 | 69.5 | 0.00 08/16 | 85 | 58 | 71.5 | 0.00 08/17 | 85 | 62 | 73.5 | 0.18 08/18 | 79 | 59 | 69.0 | 0.00 08/19 | 84 | 55 | 69.5 | 0.00 08/20 | 81 | 61 | 71.0 | 0.08 08/21 | 75 | 58 | 66.5 | 0.00 08/22 | 70 | 50 | 60.0 | 0.00 08/23 | 74 | 58 | 66.0 | 0.04 08/24 | 84 | 62 | 73.0 | 0.00 08/25 | 84 | 62 | 73.0 | 0.38 08/26 | 82 | 57 | 69.5 | 0.00 08/27 | 71 | 64 | 67.5 | 0.00 08/28 | 74 | 56 | 65.0 | 0.00 08/29 | 70 | 46 | 58.0 | 0.00 08/30 | 75 | 59 | 67.0 | 0.00 08/31 | 82 | 61 | 71.5 | 0.02 AUGUST 1982 SUMMARY: Precipitation: 2.47" (Max 1-Day: 0.64") Means: High 80.2F | Low 60.8F | Avg 70.5F Max Values: High 92F | Low 72F | Avg 81.0F Min Values: High 70F | Low 46F | Avg 58.0F SUMMER 1982 TOTAL SUMMARY: Precipitation: 13.49" (Max 1-Day: 2.36") Means: High 79.5F | Low 60.6F | Avg 70.0F Max Values: High 93F | Low 75F | Avg 83.5F Min Values: High 54F | Low 46F | Avg 52.0F SUMMER 1982 TEMPERATURE FREQUENCY (DAYS) HIGH TEMPERATURES Period | ---------------------------------------------- JUNE | 1 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 0 JULY | 0 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 7 AUGUST | 0 | 0 | 11 | 19 | 1 ---------------------------------------------- SUMMER | 1 | 8 | 28 | 47 | 8 LOW TEMPERATURES Period | ----------------------------------------- JUNE | 0 | 24 | 6 | 0 JULY | 0 | 8 | 14 | 9 AUGUST | 1 | 13 | 14 | 3 ----------------------------------------- SUMMER | 1 | 45 | 34 | 12 Imagine only 12 nights with a low above 70 and 8 days of 90's Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Every couple weeks, I do a google news for "polar vortex" for Lols. here's a sampling: Death of Polar Vortex showing when winter will lose its grip on Michigan https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/death-polar-vortex-showing-winter-221130257.html Polar Vortex: New York Under Threat Of Multiple March Snowstorms https://hudsonvalleypost.com/polar-vortex-to-bring-multiple-snowstorms-in-new-york-next-month/

They almost certainly have to do a rating for the Jan 25-26th storm, I'm very surprised it's not on there yet. I also just discovered they're including storms that impact areas outside the East Coast? I guess they have always done so if the storm impacts the Northeast in some capacity. December 2022 which was almost entirely uneventful for the East, outside of northern New England, is ranked 4th on the all-time NESIS scale for it's large snow footprint over the upper Mid-West and northern Plains. With that in mind, the January storm should be coming up soon.

GFS ensemble laughs at 6z GFS

We’re likely to finish February AN rain IMBY. I’d have to check but I’m pretty sure July was the last month we were not below normal for rainfall, so it’s been 6 straight months BN here

Let's get those houses washed, decks restored, paver patios and walkways looking new, shutters and doors painted! I'll give my family discount to anyone on the board.

Nam trying for Sunday

So I shouldn't cancel my trip to California next week?

Yes sir. They all do…it’s always been that way. If we cashed in on all the misses this year…it’s a record breaker. That’s why record breakers are so rare. But even If we don’t get another flake this winter…it’s been an excellent winter season in every aspect imo. Sure, Things can always be better(wish we here maximized the blizzard-oh well)…but zero complaints overall. If we pick up some more snow(picked up almost 3 more inches yesterday morning)…then it’s even better.

Getting solid relief in NC today