All Activity

Fun fact: For each of the first three days this month, MDT had a daily mean temp of exactly 77.5. Yesterday broke this with a 74.5.

Yeah. It seems to like my area. Birds are chirping and the rain is steady. It's a really beautiful morning. Makes you appreciate where we live in the world.

Agree, but sadly some will never keep an open mind, admit error, and stop attacking those with alternate viewpoints.

Records: Highs: EWR: 102 (1944) NYC: 101 (1944) LGA: 100 (1955) JFK: 96 (2010) Lows: EWR: 57 (1951) NYC: 56 (1951) LGA: 57 (1972) JFK: 60 (1959) Historical: 1843 - A spectacular cloudburst near Philadelphia turned the small creeks and streams entering the Delaware River into raging torrents. As much as sixteen inches of rain fell in just three hours. Flooding destroyed thirty-two county bridges, and caused nineteen deaths. It is believed that several small tornadoes accompanied the torrential rains, one of which upset and sank more than thirty barges on the Schuylkill River. (David Ludlum) 1875: Several tornadoes moved across northern and central Illinois. One of the stronger tornadoes touched down in Warren and Knox County where it destroyed 25 homes and killed two people. Another in a series of tornadoes touched down near Knoxville and moved east into northern Peoria County. This estimated F4 tornado injured 40 people and was described by eyewitnesses as looking like a "monstrous haystack." 1904: Detroit Lakes woman is hit by lightning. It melted her hairpins and steel in corset but does not kill her.(Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1915: Fort Wayne, IN set their coldest August high temperature with 60°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1961 - The temperature at Ice Harbor Dam, WA, soared to 118 degrees to equal the state record established at Wahluke on the 24th of July in 1928. The afternoon high of 111 degrees at Havre, MT, was an all-time record for that location. (The Weather Channel) 1961: McAllen, Texas: McAllen sets a new record high on Wednesday when the temperature soars to 105 °F. McAllen has now set a new record high on all but one day so far this month. (Ref. WxDoctor) 1974: Fort Walton Beach, Fla.--Lightning struck an aluminum ladder at a construction project. The man on the ladder was killed, three nearby workmen were injured. (Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf) 1980: Hurricane Allen was one of the most intense hurricanes ever observed in the Atlantic. On this date, the hurricane reached Category 5 status for the first of three times during its long path across the Atlantic as reconnaissance aircraft measured a 911 millibars (26.90 inches of mercury) pressure in the eastern Caribbean while south of Puerto Rico. Later this day, Allen moved across Haiti, ruining much of the country's coffee crop and killing 220 people.Casper, WY established new record low of 39°; breaking the previous record by 9 degrees. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1983: Very heavy thunderstorms hit the southern portion of metro Denver, CO. 2.89 inches of rain fell in just 38 minutes causing widespread street flooding in southeast Denver. Two feet of water covered a section of Interstate 25. Hail up to golf ball size accompanied the storm in Littleton and Englewood along with 60 mph winds. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1987 - Severe thunderstorms raked eastern South Dakota. The thunderstorms spawned half a dozen tornadoes, produced softball size hail at Bowdle, and produced wind gusts to 90 mph south of Watertown. Hot weather continued in eastern Texas. Afternoon highs of 100 degrees at Houston and 106 degrees at Waco equalled records for the date. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from Indiana and Lower Michigan to Pennsylvania and New York State during the day. Thunderstorms in Michigan produced wind gusts to 80 mph at Ashley, Hastings and Lennon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Oklahoma, and from Iowa to the Upper Ohio Valley, with 216 reports of large hail or damaging winds between early Saturday morning and early Sunday morning. Thunderstorms moving across Iowa around sunrise produced extremely high winds which caused ten million dollars damage to crops in Carroll and Greene Counties. Thunderstorm winds at Jefferson IA reached 102 mph. Afternoon thunderstorms produced tennis ball size hail at Bay Mills, WI. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1995: Near Deerfield, KS, hail piled in huge drifts and stripped corn in a two mile wide swath. Hail drifts were still evident 24 hours later. Rain of over six inches in a short time caused flash flooding in the Deerfield area. Highway 50 was covered by three feet of water and was closed for several hours and limited to one way traffic for 24 hours. Sand was deposited on many streets bringing out heavy equipment to clear the debris. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1999: Governors of four Mid-Atlantic States imposed mandatory water restrictions as the worst drought in the history of the region continued. The period April through July ranked as the second driest ever for the Northeast, second only to 1965. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2000: A wet microburst with winds estimated at 120 mph caused heavy damage in and around Mitchell, SD. Apartments and several mobile homes were destroyed, vehicles were overturned, and other damage occurred to buildings and vehicles. Widespread tree and power line damage also occurred. 10 people were injured, although the majority of the injuries were minor. The damage path was approximately a mile and a half long and a mile wide, extending over the southwest part of Mitchell. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2002: Tropical Storm Bertha became the first tropical system of the 2002 Atlantic hurricane to make a U.S. landfall. Bertha dumped 7.15 inches of rain on Pascagoula, MS in 24 hours. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2020: Tropical Storm Isaias hit the eastern third of Virginia hardest on Tuesday morning during its brief but destructive journey up the Eastern Seaboard. Several hours of torrential rain flooded dozens of roads, while winds gusting past 45 mph downed trees and put hundreds of thousands of homes and businesses in the dark. The storm left scattered road closures and power outages in metro Richmond and more widespread disruption across the Tidewater region, where winds approached 70 mph. No serious damage was reported in the western half of the state. (Ref. The Richmond Times Dispatch)

75 / DP 68 clouds and brunt of rain concentrated around DEL/PHL riding north along the Delaware rvr. Overall hazy/hot/humid as the Atlantic ridge hugs the east coast potential for 90s the next 6 days 8/6 - 8/11 but South Florida style daily storm firing. Extent of trough into the NE/E next week between 8/12 - 8/14 TBD Euro maintains near normal and then returns a warmer overall 8/15 - beyond.

Wasn't really expecting much this morning up to 0.43 and still moderate rain

Sure wish I could lock in these morning temps. 48 the last two mornings.

That batch is refusing to make it to HoCo lol

At my sister's in Narragansett this week. What a green up here compared to when I was here July 3rd.

I've had a hot hand since Monday. Mby has had steady moderate tropical rain since about 4am. The batch is just kinda sitting here over PG and Western AA. I like it. I'm sitting on my patio (undercover) and plotting on a day off lol.

Pouring 0.30 with more to come

Any thoughts on this? Been this way for a few days…..

Raining in OC...

Oh, I misunderstood....right. I agree with that. It was obvious. As far as the ELI goes.....it's really not even worth arguing bc it's a moot point this season, anyway given the degree of warmth in the basin. That being said, if anyone uses that index exclusively to assess ENSO orientation moving forward, there will undoubtedly be issues....although that can probably be said about any particular metric.

Latest Euro update has the Nino 3.4 ONI values peaking around +4. The Nino 1.2 ONI SSTs are now approaching +5. The longer range plumes have Nino 1+2 SSTs remaining elevated into next spring and summer.

Moderate rain now...looks like my area lucked into this batch

Yesterday’s 12Z CFSv2 run has the AAM at 4+ for all 4 members simultaneously for only the 2nd run I’ve ever seen! This has that on day 15 (Aug 18th) although it is just for that one day. The only other run that I’ve seen with all 4 members at 4+ at the same time on any day is the 8/1/26 12Z run and it didn’t have that til way out only 3 days from the end of the run (day 32 or 9/1/26)! @snowman19 12Z 8/4/26 CFSv2 AAM: all >4 on 8/18/26

I thought he meant this week or something

This is like me saying you don’t agree it’s east based because you don’t like using the ELI. I simply didn’t like how the MEI was a limited dataset nor did I need to wait for this monthly updated to figure out it was coupled.

Nice steady rain currently

You don't feel that ENSO is coupled with the tropics right now? I guess we can agree to disagree, then. I prefer a to use all of them TBH, and they all imply the same thing...ENSO is driving the tropics attm.

We can agree to disagree. SOI, VP anomalies, and OLR anomalies will also tell me if it’s coupled and I much prefer using those. I’m just not a fan of using it.

We just had 2 weeks of BN.

There is definitely a correlation....obviously the mid latitudes stand a better chance of being in sync with the tropics of the MEI is higher, but it's not absolute. Kind of akin to how the AO is correlated to colder mid latitude winters, but there are always exceptions when areas outside of it's domain are pervasive drivers.