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I think so...which is why I wanted you to bet. I was very confident in a fast start to the month based on my analogs.

Confirmed. Midsize flakes but starting to stack

UKIE kind of meh but high end advisory snows

The +EPO and cold probably isn't going to happen like that.. it's going to be one or another. If the negative 500mb over Alaska holds in the next few days, models will probably trend warmer in the CONUS. CPC yesterday put out a cold 3-4 week forecast though, with above average precip

Looking at cloud mass movement it look like 9 hours until rapidly increasing clouds commence so 8-9 pm

GFS is days and days starting next weekend

You going to get 3"? Glad I didn't bet you. The strong -PNA/+NAO being modeled didn't really happen.

I can’t believe it !

2 inches on the ground as of 10 AM. Flake quality in last hour improved a ton. No huge flakes yet, but this new stuff is stacking nicely.

I'm starting to like my spot for this... then a nice follow up storm on the GFS.. CMC also trying

Blizzard cancel?

Sell early phase.

That's what I just saw as well. Research prior to the birth of many younger mets. I still think it worthwhile for forecasters who have time, to run a quick check.

HRRR picking up on a heavy lake effect band/mesolow swinging through Berrien County mid-late Sunday afternoon. Would be a mess with 10-12” already on the ground.

Still pretty light rates here, closing in on an inch. Hope this afternoon cranks, probably another 10 hours or so of accumulating snow to go.

I guess it’s just a spot without any pavement and a lot of farmland. Just happens to have a weather station there. Mine is actually on top of a hill so I’m sure there are colder spots on the farm too. Last year with snow cover it was exceptionally cold compared to RDU

Pretty big bust incoming for you

Time now for snowier solutions cycle to reappear

Huge actually lol, It has a bit of a hybrid look to it, Almost a bit SWFE ish on some of these runs, The 12z Euro should be of interest to see what it does.

Pretty big change from 00z. We watch.

Quality at the moment

I probably rushed the PV recovery, which I can live with...the bigger deal is getting the Pacific trough transition correct.

Around the 5th is the next opportunity.

Euro is keeping that southern vort independent of the northern stream for quite a bit longer. These more amped models are trying to phase earlier so you get a big WAA surge out ahead of it.

No mention in the AFD’s from either in regards to the shortwave.