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Low of 54. Perfect days. Happy Friday.

The thing to do would be compare the BOS max and min departures with the other sites going back to spring 2025 and seeing if they start deviating last fall.

This is what I was referring to. If this is how someone makes their seasonal forecast, you should immediately unsubscribe from them.

'normal' is a result of all events mixed together. Conceptually even a bone-heads ( well.. not Trump supporters) can see that the odds of any future event landing a result squarely on a number that is a mix of everything is thus remote. That means that actually hitting an arbitrarily occurring value dead on whatever that normal value is, is no different than the Lotto. Very low odds. Basically ... everything that occurs in nature is perhaps well over 90% likely to be ABnormal. This is particularly true for decimals (to the right) of the whole number But it sounds like y'all could use a refresh, or perhaps a first time introduction to what is known in statistical science as 'Chi-Square test'. A formula that produces a rational value, then interpretive as a method for determining if the frequency differs from expected result. It looks like this ... ...that outta clear things up

With the MADIS charts you look for step changes or changes in trends. There’s a step change in there around the beginning of October last year. Positive error means the station is running cooler than expected; negative error means it’s running warmer than expected. Traditionally BOS has run positive error (cooler than MADIS “expects”) during the warm season. I marked in blue curves above the nighttime temps centered over the 7/1 plots. This warm season you don’t see that…it’s flatlined in the negative error (warmer than expected). The funny thing is that the max temps are running cooler than expected. The net is a little warmer in the means. I’m not sure what’s going on, but it’s almost like when you mount your sensor on the north side of your house…you’re keeping it in permanent shade during the day, but you’re getting radiative heat from the house at night.

That extreme heat was brutal, thank goodness we had so many near or even below normal days between those heat waves. I think it was the first time I had 2 consecutive above 100 degree days. After all that heat most places should end up with a near normal temperature in July, would not have expected that.

The -PDO continues to exceed seasonal model forecasts.

Augdewst looks hotter and hotter each successive ensemble run. Super Ninos love end humid hot summers well into fall

A Nino is just one piece of the pie. Sure it may affect other pieces but it's still a separate entity. And in today's changing climate the signals are more muddled.

No apparently summer is basically over just like how some said cool weather was here to stay in mid June. Ensembles clearly show more hot weather as August arrives and I wouldn't rule out more 100+ readings

They think ENSO is just some sliding scale where the warmest ENSO = no snow and less warm ENSO = more snow and anything that counters “warmest ENSO” means more snow. It’s not true, it’s much more nuanced as it has been discussed plenty of times in this very thread.

Very pleasant 55 this morning

48 degrees again this morning. Wow! Voyager you sure got that low down on your weather station.Impressive!

Wonder if they'll try a permanent standard time bill next time? that would fail too-no one wants sunsets an hour earlier in spring/summer.

modestly hyped for an MCS somewhere around s lake michigan in the sun-mon period

how and perhaps what on Earth are you seeing here that looks like anything

Yeah but you don't deserve it 'cuz you've been chiding and debasing warmth all along haha 'Sides, solar max doesn't exit until ~ the 9th of August

A surprise 1.35" overnight/this morning. Closing in on 6" for the week. Can I get a two category improvement in one week?

57 and cloudy this morning. No radiational cooling.

As @csnavywx suspected, we are going to handedly surpass 1997…. We are on the verge of breaking 1997’s -SOI record (@Gawx), we are warmer in region 3.4, we are neck and neck in region 1+2 and we have broken 1997’s OHC record

Atleast if its hot in August the sun is starting to lower so it doesnt feel as bad.. Just like when its 20 in mid February but your car can still be warm when you get in it during the day.

Same here in Marysville! It can’t get much better for July!

Morning AFD from LWX mentions "ridge rollers" KEY MESSAGE 2...Returning to a summer-like pattern next week. Coming off of the weekend, an upper-level trough begins to dig into the northeastern U.S. This will usher in the potential for organized convection early to mid week. In spite of multiple frontal passages during the period, next week could carry a return to summer-like conditions with heat indices in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees. The key players will be a longstanding upper ridge across the southwestern U.S. into the southern/central Great Plains, a deep upper low near Hudson Bay, and longwave trough over the eastern U.S. While ensemble solutions do not show a more formidable shortwave tracking across the area, the setup certainly lends itself to a more active pattern. A series of "ridge rollers" are likely to cross the northern tier of the country before crossing the Great Lakes and northeastern states. At this juncture, the machine-learning algorithms favor an uptick in convection on Monday into Tuesday. This would present the most likely opportunity for any severe thunderstorms. A progressive pattern aloft will bring a cold front through the region on Tuesday evening/night, with a secondary boundary on its heels. While temperatures remain seasonable in this mid/late week pattern shift, dew points slowly come down to finish out the month of July.

Outlooked on Day 5 from SPC... and sounds like we could see additional outlooks in the LR next weekend Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Monday... A prominent upper high will remain centered over the central and southern Plains with a belt of enhanced mid-level flow forecast along the periphery of that feature from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Within that flow regime, a short-wave trough is forecast to translate through the Great Lakes in tandem with a surface low and trailing cold front. A hot and moist boundary layer is expected ahead of the front, yielding moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Despite veered low-level winds, strengthening mid/upper-level winds in the exit region of a jet streak will contribute to sufficient vertical shear for organized severe storms across portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley Monday afternoon into night. ...Day 5/Tuesday... The Day 4/Monday short-wave trough is forecast to evolve into an upper low across southwest ON and the lower Great Lakes with an associated belt of stronger cyclonic flow developing from the OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and NC. At the surface, an area of low pressure will develop from the lower Great Lakes into central NY with a trailing cold front advancing through the upper OH Valley, central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic. Thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning along and ahead of the front from the lower Great Lakes and upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Stronger heating is anticipated to the south of the early-day storms from the southern Mid-Atlantic into NC, where moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast. The strongest instability will coincide with modestly strong deep-layer shear to support some severe weather threat in those areas Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Days 6-8/Wednesday-Friday... The 00Z ensemble means depict a slight westward regression of the dominant mid/upper-level high with persistent troughing along the East Coast. On the periphery of the high, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to progress from the Canadian Rockies on Wednesday through the Prairie Provinces on Thursday with modest height falls along the international border. By Friday, there is some model signal for another short-wave trough to move into the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes regions. At the surface, a more substantial cold front is projected to move into the northern Plains on Thursday, and the upper Midwest and Great Lakes by Friday. A few severe storms appear possible in the Southeast and northern Plains on Wednesday, the northern Plains on Thursday, and the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes on Friday. Confidence in the magnitude and areal extent of the threat is currently too low to delineate additional areas. ..Mead.. 07/24/2026