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Winter doesn't "show cards." First 6 days of Jan were well below normal, next 8 were well above normal and from today through the end of January looks to be well below normal with numerous snow chances, as reflected by the EPS/GEFS/CMC/AIFS ensemble means, plus Sunday isn't dead yet.

What an event so far... measured 10" and the radar looks great. Really heavy snow within the stronger bands. Looks like the 422 corridor is locked in again.

Newest SREF

This is my stance, but the collective psyche of the board right now is just so fragile that it will fall on deaf ears and get ample pushback.

Lol!

I wouldn't be shocked to see 12z come back to be honest

Yeah I'm just as baffled as you are. everyone is on edge and a 6Z gfs run 90 hours out pushed them over I guess 00z trends were great overall I thought. Totally agree. Was worth watching then and worth watching now. We really need a KU for the sake of sanity of this place lmao

Temps were above average for 9 days.

Current temp of 29 is the low. Didn’t see any snow but .05” of rain in the bucket. Have to spend my birthday at the DMV this morning. I’d rather put pencils through my eyeballs.

Nice! Love this vintage snow pic, and others like it. These girls look like real snow weenies, they have that crazed look of joy

Should get some here

True. Last storm helped a bit, but the general theme is the same.

Oh instead of chasing snow in the mountains, I get to chase it to the east of me. Not ideal.

The dgex model would be showing a Blizzard from Birmingham to Maine.

It’s crazy to me how perpetually overdone Arctic air is on models east of apps in the 5-10+ day range. You’d think tweaks would be made or they would “learn”

We will need the northern stream to relax, but that won’t happen because of fast pacific flow. That stems from a very warm northern Pacific Ocean, especially during the summertime, as we’ve seen from the marine heat waves. This is directly linked to climate change. Unless the northern stream slows down and can phase with the southern jet, we will not have coastal storm tracks, and we will not be able to nickel and dime our way to average snowfall. Late Jan through early February won’t work out either.

Agree that the ~1" or so seen on most models for Saturday is likely white rain, at least for 95 and the coast, especially with light snow falling during the day (sun angle ain't zero), with maybe some accumulation on colder surfaces if we're lucky. And Sunday is all over the place, although the AIFS, in particular has been pretty consistent for many runs and it has the best model verification scores recently, albeit for 500 mbar predictions and not snow, per se - although it never bit much on today's "snow" a few to several days ago.

The one big red flag is the EPS has been pretty steadfast for the past 3-4 runs of being mostly a miss. Need to see that change at 12z

Good test for the "La Nina is fading fast" crowd....I call BS on it.....but IF that has any credence what so ever, we won't get boned out of phase 8 residence and amplitude once again. I think we will....watch the models adjust.

The aggregate trend over the past 24 hours is still really solid. Needs more work, but fast forward from 6z yesterday I’m sure most would take where we are currently

I hate to be the one that says it. But it needs to be said. Winter has shown its cards. It got off to a great start with above average snowfall in December and well below average temperatures. But since then, we have been warm for nearly the entire month of January. No snow threats have worked out for us. While it will become cold starting this weekend, this weekend snow threat will not work out and the Euro was right once again. Time to wrap it up, folks.

Nothing he said changed after 3:00am. I’m as annoyed the GFS is trying to fold as anyone, but these are still reasons to consider a general NW trend is possible. Let’s see what 12z does. Still got 3/4 days.

I don't travel all that much-but will be far far away Sunday.That should be good karma for a nice snow-that I will miss

I’m going to stick my flag in the sand that cams will lead the way on this one. All of the belly aching on globals will soon be done. In a waa setup, you’re never going to catch the nuances that the short range models will. I expect an expansive precip shield at go time.