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Id agree with what Jeff said up above .We seem to be seeing the the SSW underway with the sharp rise in temps into the stratosphere but even so ,the cold seems to be getting pushed back seemingly each day.The JMA right now shows a strong MJO signal in the WP into the first of Dec,while this isnt bad it still should have reflection to more or less a SER,just transient cold shots.Might not be a bad thing if you want a cold Christmas or even possibly beyond that for a couple weeks anyways

I mean, it’s possible we don’t, but everybody gets so mad if I mention that. It’s always like the EPO will bring down the cold. It will squish everything… But that’s how these patterns initially go. It’s literally climo. There’s nothing wrong in saying that.

I always try to include some nice “visions” in my posts.

The Euro ends up cutting the mid-state with western areas miserable in the 30s with rain, warm in the east ahead of the cutter. SE ridge wins on it vs the AI.

0.16” this morning brings the MTD total to 1.92”

This is just mind blowing and horrifying to me

The Euro might be trying to go at a winter storm for the western areas at 288 this run. It's warmer than the AI but cooler across our forum area with less extremes on either side of the front.

Yeah there’s no way we don’t get a very strong screamer early December

"Plum Smuggler" Thank you for expanding my vocabulary today - this one is definitely going into the rotation. It sounds like Fruit of the Loom's answer to the Hamburgler!

The cold is wild in the midwest. 40 degrees below normal with -10s. Most of our forum area is in the 10 to 20 degrees bn range from the 3rd to the end of the run on the 6th.

Thank You! I could have had similar input for my location but you beat me to it. My predicted high for the 18th 24 hrs prior at 6 am 11-17 for my newsletter was 43. I missed it by 2 degrees 24 hrs prior. The NWS at Sterling missed it by 9 degrees, 12 hrs. prior and in real time because of buying in to model error. The models almost always scour the cold from entrenched CAD out of valleys too quickly on a southeast or east breeze for Augusta. The Sterling forecaster obviously didn't understand or consider this on Tuesday even after midday red flags.

The Euro AI has a very potent cold front in early December that really battles the SE ridge. It slowly overtakes the western forum first and it takes 36 hours or so to cross the state. Get some rain to snow in NW Tennessee that slowly spreads eastward and lightens as it goes east. Often times the cold comes a little quicker than models manage it in those situations, but sometimes it just sticks in place.

I miss having access to Ventrice’s MJO stuff. All I have are those wheeler diagrams. Better than nothing I guess.

Interesting. You should ask it to follow up with links to related scientific papers on which its assessment was based.

I think that is the favored outcome.

I meant to look through the behavior of the MJO for my entire analog set in putting together the forecast at the end, but I forgot to do it...if I mess up the December progression and rush the warmth, that is why.

I know it’s an op run, but 12z Euro AI has the depiction I had in mind for this whole regime shift. Early December shut ‘em down type cutter with frigid temps into TX while Kevin is wearing his plum smuggler running shorts for his morning run. Then it shifts east.

Why do you keep posting nonsense ?

Well said Bob. Good luck to your backyard this winter.

I dont expect a big winter for the I95 south of Boston yea. Likely <20” , <10” also cant be ruled out. Btw euro kinda backed off the phase 8 idea already. Dec looks mild with the bulk of the cold falling into the plains and rockies.

This is my complete December list: December Analogs: 2021, 2017,2008, 2007, 2000, 1981, 1970 Seasonal: Primary Sensible Weather Winter Analogs (*Denotes Strongest Analog): 2024-2025, 2021-2022, 2017-2018, *2000-2001, 1970-1971

In the midst of a miracle comeback weather-wise with veiled sunshine in Frederick as opposed to the drearies. In other news, November is probably my least favorite month lol. It’s the no man’s land of weather. When is it gonna snow?

Some leaves have dropped but definitely mid December before most of them come down .

I'll be happy with one accum event before the holidays lol. Overall nothing shows a "snowy" pattern but all lr guidance is advertising "cold enough to snow" temperatures for several weeks in Dec. We don't want mega cold anyways. Giant departures require giant high pressure and without looking back at data I'm pretty confident guessing that ice box December's are very dry here. From what I'm seeing we probably don't have much of a chance before Dec 10th but the next couple weeks after that will have enough cold over or around us to present a chance or 2. My yard requires a lot more work than yours this time of year so my imby lr forecast isn't very optimistic lol but I'll always root for the DMV

A collective boing can be heard to your south.