All Activity

Isaias is a atypical TC situation esp. for a landfall. In a way it reminds me of Sandy in Oct 2012, but some differences. However, it has similar implications. The models, both global and hurricane, all along have showed very rapid weakening of Isaias the last 9-12 hr to landfall. 12z HAFS-A 09/18z 951 mb /110 kt 10/03z 984 mb / 63 kt 12z HAFS-B 09/18z 964 mb / 99 kt 10/03z 985 mb / 57 kt So there is a serious question if it will be a hurricane at landfall. In addition, looking at the storm structure forecast, it is difficult to imagine it will still be classifiable as a tropical cyclone at landfall. The SHIPS shear value is 35 kt 09/12z increasing to 49 kt 10/00z. It is fully embedded in a 250 jet streak near landfall and all the convection sheared off N of the center at the time. Very dry air (<20% 700-300 RH) is completely wrapped around and over the center (HAFS A/B forecast attached) and clear, defined frontal features apparent on the moisture fields. Since Isaias is rather small and not that strong, it is unlikely to be able to ward off wind shear and dry air intrusion, like Ian did in Sep 2022. Despite all of the above, I do not see any real emphasis currently in the mainstream on this very real possibility. I've seen this before from NHC. They avoid much emphasis on rapid weakening close to landfall b/c they think ppl will not take the warnings are seriously, but I find this disingenuous. They are not being objective and transparent. This was apparent w/ Milton, which is the most rapid weakening for a HU in a short period leading up to a U.S. landfall. Our forecast skill/modeling have come a long way for TCs, so confidence in outlier or atypical scenarios is higher these days and we should take full advantage of this operationally. I know of no Gulf hurricane situation quite like this one where such rapid weakening and quick PT/ET transition occurs near landfall (Milton comes close). And I see no reason why the HAFS weakening forecast would be wrong given the synoptic pattern currently and this model handled the very rapid weakening of Milton. That was a strong baroclinic interaction with high shear impacting the hurricane. So this presents a problem/challenge as to how Isaias could be handled. The concern is that in deference to messaging, it may not be called PT/ET at landfall or below hurricane strength even if it clearly is since within 12 hr of landfall it may be much stronger. From an objective meteorological standpoint? It should not matter where a TC is (close to a landfall or far at sea), how strong it is, or what type of watches/warnings are in effect, it should be treated "as is" operationally. So if goes ET/PT just before landfall, call it for what is it. The atmosphere does not care about our subjective policies/rules, it does what it does. There is nothing that says a TC can not go ET/PT just before landfall, and it has been done before (Sandy). And after Sandy, things were adjusted so tropical watches/warnings remain in place even if a TC goes ET/PT, so things are covered here from a messaging standpoint. This kind of objectivity is important to the meteorological science. A hurricane at landfall or not is significant from a climo standpoint. And in some cases depending on the state, county, or city/town, what something is called/labeled makes a difference from an insurance and legal standpoint. Some may say all what I say above is being pedantic or picayune, but I beg differ. There were significant discussions and controversy in the meteorological and other fields as to what Sandy was called at landfall. I am just proactively pointing out beforehand a similar TC situation currently.

immaterial by the time earth heats to much up we all will be dead..

i see blue on that map...

Models have been predicting a good drop in pressure tonight as the center passes over the warm loop current eddy.

Wow red all over

Still think we cool down around the mid-month,seemingly we are just fiximg to get sandwiched from the tropics.JMA and Euro are close to be on the same page in the extended period with the MJO,least we should get a break for a few days

we ll know from past history these gulf storms intensify last day right up to landfall even in cases of strong wind shear..

Probably b/c of it small size. Global models had trouble picking it up.

Here we go with this bs… lol it’s go time

I survived surgery. Long road to shoulder healing

Yep. Core is there and it will be moving over slightly warmer waters too. Diurnal max will be the max for this system. Imo 95-105 kts is attainable

5-6pm would be great trying to spend the day in Manhattan

Records: Highs: EWR: 89 (2007) NYC: 87 (2007) LGA: 89 (2007) JFK: 90 (2007) Lows: EWR: 32 (1935) NYC: 37 (1988) LGA: 40 (1988) JFK: 40 (2001) Historical: 1871 - Prolonged drought and dessicating winds led to the great Chicago fire, the Peshtigo horror, and the Michigan fire holocaust. Fire destroyed more than seventeen thousand buildings killing more than 200 persons in the city of Chicago, while a fire consumed the town of Peshtigo WI killing more than 1100 persons. In Wisconsin, a million acres of land were burned, and in Michigan, 2.5 million acres were burned killing 200 persons. "Tornadoes of fire" generated by intense heat caused houses to explode in fire, and burned to death scores of persons seeking refuge in open fields. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1871: The Great Chicago Fire burns much of the city to the ground, fanned by strong southwest winds. An estimated 250 were killed. On the same night, forest fires swept through Peshtigo, Wisconsin. An estimated 1,500 to possibly as many as 2,500 dies as gale-force winds push flames across town. Severe drought blamed for tinder-dry conditions. 1878: An estimated F3 tornado struck Monticello, Iowa, around 5:30 pm. The Catholic Church was demolished, along with several homes. The business portion of the town was comparatively uninjured. While no lives were lost, 11 people were injured. The German Church in Richland township was destroyed, along with other buildings in the surrounding county. A wind and hail storm occurred during the evening hours in Sigourney, Iowa, causing considerable damage. Fences and shade trees were blown down, and much glass was broken by hail, which fell in large stones. 1901 - A deluge at Galveston, TX, produced nearly twelve inches of rain in about a six hour period. The rains came precisely thirteen months after the day of the famous Galveston hurricane disaster. (David Ludlum) 1919: An intense tornado moved through the town of Hoisington, 11 miles north of Great Bend, Kansas. It damaged or destroyed 60 homes which resulted in $200,000 in damages. Business papers and canceled checks were found at Lincoln, 55 miles to the northeast. 1946: A minimal Category 1 hurricane made landfall over Bradenton, Florida, before tracking north-northeast across Tampa Bay. The storm was the last hurricane to make direct landfall in the Tampa Bay area. 1972: Panama City, Florida: A cold front passing across Florida produces a tornado in Panama City that brings down power lines and blows out windows. (Ref. WxDoctor) 1982 - An unusually early snowstorm hit the northern Black Hills of Wyoming and South Dakota. The storm produced up to 54 inches of snow, and winds as high as 70 mph. The snowfall was very much dependent upon topography. Rapid City, 20 miles away, received just a trace of snow. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Unseasonably cold weather prevailed from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the southeastern U.S. Thirty cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Madison WI with a reading of 22 degrees. The low of 28 degrees at Evansville IN was the coolest of record for so early in the season. Hot weather continued in the southwestern U.S. Phoenix AZ reported a record high of 104 degrees and a record tying 116 days of 100 degree weather for the year. Tucson AZ established an all-time record with 72 days of 100 degree weather for the year. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Snow was reported across parts of northern New England. Two inches blanketed Mount Snow VT. Warm weather continued in the northwestern U.S. The afternoon high of 80 degrees at Stampede Pass WA exceeded their previous record for October by seven degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Morning lows in the 20s were reported from the Northern Plains to the Upper Great Lakes. International Falls MN and Marquette MI reported record lows of 22 degrees. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in central California as the Oakland Athletics won the American League pennant. San Luis Obispo CA reported a high of 99 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1993: With 1.05 inches of rain that fell at Columbia, MO, the yearly total precipitation was pushed to 55.77 inches, breaking the annual record. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1996: Annandale Barcroft Hills Weather Center 1.88 inches of rain from Tropical Storm Josephine as it passed to our east. Hurricane Josephine's Track - Weather Underground 1999: Isolated thunderstorms caused significant accumulations of hail in southwest Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Hail fell up to 30 minutes in a swath from Gould to near Duke, Oklahoma; rain-drifted hail to depths of 3 feet in ditches. Hail cumulated 6 inches south of Cooperton, Oklahoma, and 8 inches near Lockett, Texas. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2012 Accord Pub. 2011, USA) 2000: The coldest pre-October 10th air mass in nearly 50 years has invaded the central United States!!! The cold was most impressive over Texas. San Antonio only reached a high temperature of 46 degrees October 8,2000. This set a low-maximum temperature for the date. The previous record was 65 set in 1975. The normal high in San Antonio is 84. A 111-year-old record was broken Sunday morning October 8th in Memphis, Tennessee, when the temperature fell to 36 degrees (the previous record was 39 degrees set in 1889). (Ref. Wilson - Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link) 2001: Hurricane Iris made landfall S of Belize City, Belize (on SE section of the Yucatan Peninsula); sustained winds of 145 mph; storm surge to 15 feet. The M/V Wave Dancer, charted by the Richmond (VA) Dive Club, sank at Big Creek. 17 of 20 dive club members on board died; 3 crew members also died. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) 2005: The Annandale Weather Station maximum rain in a 24-hour period is 5.66 inches which was set on October 7th and 8th 2005. (Ref. Annandale Weather Records) 2018: Hurricane Michael Panama City, Florida Hurricane Michael was a historic hurricane on several counts - Hurricane Michael made landfall Wednesday October 10th as an unprecedented high-end Category 5 hurricane (on the Saffir-Simpson Scale) along the Florida Panhandle region with a maximum sustained wind speed of 155 mph at landfall and a minimum air pressure of 919 mb (27.14 inches of mercury). In terms of central barometric pressure, Michael was the third most powerful hurricane to strike the U.S. mainland, ranked behind the unnamed Labor Day Hurricane of September 1935 (892 mb) and Hurricane Camille (900 mb) in August 1969. However, Michael's central pressure was the lowest on record for any October hurricane to strike the United States. In terms of maximum sustained wind speed at landfall, Michael was the fourth strongest, behind the Labor Day 1935 hurricane (184 mph), Hurricane Camille (172 mph) and Hurricane Andrew in 1992 (167 mph). Michael is the first Category 5 hurricane on record to make landfall on the Florida Panhandle with (160 mph winds).

Looks like it's trying to wrap some deep convection around the west side of the eye. If it can hold on and build an eyewall out of this, that's it's shot.

I would expect one more significant ramp up tonight before it hits the shredder Tommorow

Least we are starting to see the the PDO changing for that matter as well so is the IOD,IOD should be warmer in a strong NINO

Recon seems supportive of 80 kts, closing in on cat 2 at a much more modest rate today

Looks like a legit eye to me but it’s only cleared out bc the convection waned and isn’t overshooting it from the SW I believe. Looks legit now

My gut maybe right after all with the way the QPF keeps lowering here in the piedmont. Jesus we cant get anything right here except for drought and humidity/heat.

We've had measurable rain on 3 of 8 days this month, which would project 137 such days per year, only 7 days less than average (average precip is 48.83)". Total precip is 0.06" - totaling 2.74" for the year. No wonder the Sandy River is in the bottom 10% and Carrabassett in the bottom 5%. The upper halves of trees here are 90% de-leafed. Lower half about halfway. Today's wind hasn't been grabbing much foliage so far.

I would think tonight’s its last chance to ramp up. It’s clearly struggling already with dry air and shear. Looks elongated already.

Total expected rainfall from WPC is yet another reduction:

My expectation for most of the piedmont is 1" but I would not be surprised in the coastal convection robbed even more moisture and there is a screw zone of like 1/2" between here and PTI