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Ah, all good.

The Dvorak color table really gives an ideal of CDO intensity and symmetry!

Was referring to the EURO products when I said EURO, sorry for the confusion.

NHC mentioned last night the depth of the 30-31 C ocean temp was quite deep in this area, but still some slight upwelling would occur for such an intense and slow-moving TC. That could reduce max potential a bit. Just thinking of how low the pressure can get. Only Patricia has EPAC pressure below 900 mb.

Probably wet/misty ground cover reflecting the camera IR in night mode. Sometimes around dusk/dawn my cameras look that way with a dewy ground.

Euro and EPS. AI Euro and its ensembles. GDM and its ensembles. That’s a pretty good consensus but far from a slam dunk at this stage.

It depends on the duration of slow movement. The slowdown / stall is occurring now. But heat content is deep there. Sure, it could limit peak intensity down, somewhat, given enough time. Forward progress is forecast to take the core NW tomorrow. But I really think internal restructuring via an EWRC would impact its peak prior to mixing on Wednesday. The 30-31° isotherm layer is not shallow and some of the deepest on the globe right now due to El Niño. The 26° isotherm is over 150 meters. If any location can support a stall right now, it's there.

I think all the AI’s are south too….

CMC and GFS looks pretty similar. Euro is the only model showing this south of SNE at the moment no?

Best bet with this is to watch trends on EURO/EPS/AI. GFS not going to handle this with any kind of consistency for a few more days yet. Going to be a very complex evolution and exactly how it plays out will determine who gets what. I do feel confident in minor to moderate coastal flooding with large onshore fetch over 3-4 high tide cycles with full moon aiding. Still think best changes are along NJ coast, LI Sound and SE New England. All depending on ultimate evolution though. Interesting to watch in the days ahead.

Nothing out here either... Disappointing system for sure...

Did we not work out something with Mexico with regard to potential threats? Granted, Polo likely avoids landfall, but it will pass close enough to cause problems (i.e. flooding). We may have. The first time I recall a scheduled recon into a EPAC system was Linda in Sep 1997 b/c it was originally fcst to recurve and hit srn CA! Other than that, it was just the occasional NOAA research mission. It may be if the TC is fcst to get intense and is close to Mexico, they do recons.

would not upwelling be a issue if the storm moves at 2 mph.

I too am curious what you folks are paying down that way. Prices range all over the place up here depending on where you are in the state. A few weeks back we got 2 cord kiln dried delivered from about 20 miles away for $450/cord. Most I've paid in years however, for kiln dried, that has been typical for for what I've seen posted about. We typically do green in the spring but ironically, and sadly, I recently learned that the reason why our normal firewood guy wasn't returning calls was because his home burned completely to the ground. Heard this second hand and understand he and his wife are OK but it sounds like it's going to be an uphill climb for them.

This is tricky. Whereas cyclonicwx’s OISST graph has indeed had it at +2.5 for the past 10 days including last week, keep in mind that NOAA had it at only +2.1 for last week. Thus, NOAA had it 0.4 cooler than cyclonicwx’s OISST graph. Actually, NOAA has been cooler than cyclonicwx by 0.4 for 9 straight weeks! NOAA labels their weeklies as OISSTv2.1. Thus, I wonder if cyclonicwx uses an older version of OISST. If so, that could possibly explain the 0.4 difference for the last 9 weeks. Note that cyclonicwx in late June/early July was warmer by only 0.1. I wonder if the latest version of OISST started being used just after that. So, per NOAA, last week’s equivalent RONI (based on OISSTv2.1) was still only +2.1. So, with that being the case, there’s quite a ways to go to see if it actually does reach a +3.0 trimonthly peak per NOAA. NOAA Weeklies: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt *Edit: I just found out that OISSTv2.1 was first implemented way back on 4/26/2020: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/optimum-interpolation-sst So, it remains a mystery why cyclonicwx’s OISST graph has been warmer than NOAA’s OISSTv2.1 based weeklies for 9 weeks! So, until NOAA’s weeklies get close to cyclonicwx (if they do), I’ll continue to treat cyclonicwx’s OISST graphs as too warm.

Fuck no buddy, considering going from downtown Brattleboro to now surrounded by trees on Rt30?

See my edit. I'm not upset at all. I just need to be clear. That's ok. Being clear on social media is not always easy. Context and tone is often challenge! I think that's were emojis come in.

1983 went into a moderate Nina in the fall...1998 it went into a strong nina in the Spring. Both had warmth continuing at 1-2 for a while.

To clarify, I don't know for sure the exact reasons why Sandy was not called a hurricane at landfall, but I think one reason is there were no hurricanes warnings in effect N of ORF. How does that look from a agency PR standpoint? No warnings? You know how that sentiment goes in the public's eye. Yes, there were non-tropical warnings out by local WFOs covering the dangerous conditions, but really, which do you think the public would react to more and take seriously, gale/storm/high wind warnings, or hurricane warnings? And this was not doing it for the sake of jacking up the level or warnings for public safety, there was a significant chance that Sandy would still be a hurricane at landfall, and NHC has a relatively low threshold policy for model probabilities when they issue tropical watches/warnings. You can see this often and I'm sure some notice at times. TS warning that far away or in that location and you ask yourself, "are the chances for sustained 34 kt winds that probable?" You can see this a lot for systems passing offshore from the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, where you can't apply the same reasoning to TC wind fields here as in the tropical and subtropics since TCs become asymmetrical and move faster at mid-latitudes And we knew the storm surge alone was going be very high/record impact in NJ and NYC. Sandy is one of the few times truly the absolute intense hype days ahead of time IMHO was warranted for this region, since a NW moving, large hurricane making landfall in NJ was unheard of prior.

what the going rate for a dry cord split and delivered in metro west ?

I have no idea what the 12z GFS is smoking, but it brings our nor'easter up the coast and slams it into Maine then has it at the same latitude as New Jersey.

Looks good for today. But you will notice those are some intense outer bands. I'd say a concentric eyewall will most likely develop by tomorrow given that banding structure.

Yeah we had some big 32 degree snowstorms in 2015-2016. I know we’re in an east coast thread right now so even if the mean temp ends up higher than 97-98, it doesn’t mean the east coast can’t get a massive event with just enough cold air if the timing is right. This is what I mean by saying you can’t just look at 97-98 and say it’s going to be a duplicate winter and expect little to snow on the east coast because of it. Like I said, the atmosphere isn’t that simple.

Always a great time when the ultimate snow weenie has thrown in the towel in September