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Here we go again. WHO thinks this is going to be a good winter? @40/70 Benchmark, myself and others have marveled at this statement which gets thrown around here somewhat frequently and yet no one can point out a SINGLE person who says this will be a "good winter". I guess saying that it will snow in places that have never seen a winter without multiple snowfalls means a "good winter". The mere idea of no snow in the Great Lakes region with shorts from Christmas to Valentines day is absolutely ridiculous. Guarantee ill be wearing sweaters and worst case scenario enjoying a much lower heating bill than usual. Its amazing how some people lose their grasp on reality of how the weather works.

I'd prefer to have a la nina next winter--and I really dislike ninas because I live in the Mid-atlantic meaning I'm too far north for sliders AND too far west for Miller Bs. BUT...long game...if we can get la nina next year, it can do the stupid double dip thing in 28-29, then it can peter out and we can hope for a nino with a solar minimum! Who says no?

I looked at the ensembles. While it may get more wet, it’s AN for sure. I expect some alternate periods of warm and cold while averaging AN.

Not to nitpick but the ice storm was Jan 1998. But yes. Nov-Jan 1997-98 was fine here for a strong Nino. Plenty of snowfalls. February was the disaster no-show. March saw a winter comeback of sorts but most of it stayed west of me.

Does this map put both Dryslot and Tamarack in Severe drought ?

The weenie land AI euro eps was posted. Sometimes these models dont latch on to the PV warming. If anything colder air would return for a brief at the end of November. AO and NAO diving with the PNA rising. It also should get stormy soon.

That’s how it goes.

Yeah driving around yesterday colors were really popping especially in the late afternoon sun

I actually wouldn't mind something like 1877-78 here at all. I mean, id NEVER wish for it outright, but saddled with a super nino, its not a bad outcome in the Great Lakes region (further northwest into MN and Southern Canada a different story). With records somewhat limited, im going strictly off Detroit data, but a reasonable amount of extrapolation for nearby areas can be done. After a bit of snow and cold around Thanksgiving, December torched, then much colder and snowier weather hit in January and February, including a huge snowstorm. It was still a bit milder than average, but in prime climo months it wasnt prohibitive at all in getting solid winter weather here. The torch returned in March and April. It certainly made for a much shorter winter than we are used to, but if im forced to have a limited winter, why not get the best weather in the prime time instead of november, march and april. Also, a scenario like that isnt at all unrealistic in recent times, as Jan/Feb, especially Jan, have seen almost no warming at all, unlike Dec and Mar.

Happy Halloweenie, All. PIT2 sitting in the D3 shading. It's a lot better now than it was in August, that's for damn sure.

One semi cold airmass and they’ll start giving each other attaboys for their PV calls.

Interesting that Chicago never had measurable snow on Halloween til 2014 then has had it 3 times since. Detroit has only had it twice (1993- 0.1", 2023- 0.2"). Halloween 1950 was a scorcher (79° at Detroit but 81° on Nov 1st).

As long as we can keep pulling 60s-70 let’s keep the sun. But by late Novie and Dec we need to fix this up here.

I was going by vague memory as a general statement (I dont know Chicago stats like I do Detroits lol). It was 2019 & 2023.

A lot wrong with that. We have no need for rain. Let's keep the crystal blue persuasion.

October rainfall: 2.39". Take out the Isaias related event and would have been only .55". Today is day #14 with no rainfall. The last two weeks have made for a great fall foliage season out this way. Peak color and with no rain and minimal wind the leaves have stayed on the trees. Good amount of leaves were flying late yesterday once the front moved through and the winds kicked up. Still a beautiful view out in the yard with lots of gold and red colored leaves in the morning sun. Two maples across the street are deep orange. Some trees are now almost bare but still lots of color. I give foliage an "A" this year out this way.

So far this year through yesterday.

So far this year through yesterday.

Makes you wonder if indeed the large SST anomaly in 1&2, 3 contributed to the SSW if it will also repeat. If that was a contributor to current warming then I think its inevitable it will occur again. If it does not occur again, then its likely that was not the cause of the current warming. But I would caution also, the same people warning about not taking seriously the stratosphere forecasts when it was showing a warming, need to be just as cautious about a long-range super recovery forecast. Bias is ridiculous. Recovery is a guarantee without other hits, and strong SPV would not be unusual considering the setup, however, could very well be overdone as well.

Yes. I was also comparing it to last winter, which was one of the better ones around here in years. We'll regress this winter but it's fine if we can make it interesting once in a while (and the ski areas do relatively well).