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They’re going with a TD rather than STD as of the 5 PM/initial advisory: NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Three, located in the Atlantic Ocean offshore of the southeastern United States, at 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC).

SST feedback doesn't make sense to me. Seems like kind of a simple answer. The tropics have recently shown a good SST correlation though with tropical systems. It works in the tropics, but not really in the upper latitudes.

Satellite imagery is a bit deceiving as the MLC is well east of surface circulation and surface center is diffuse. Will be interesting what NHC goes with at 5, but it’s not far off from a name. IMO this very likely gets named and areas east of landfall have a nasty weekend

What a day out on Pt Judith fishing with my Nephew. Low 70's and a nice sea breeze.

I just saw this, which suggests the NHC may be going with a 30 knot subtropical depression perhaps due to the center being too broad for TD status: AL, 92, 2025070418, , BEST, 0, 309N, 790W, 30, 1012, SD Also, note the 79.0W longitude, which suggests it’s a little E of the 79.5W longitude that the LLC was earlier supposedly near.

79 degree's out. Gorgeous. Only been outside once at work and that was to check on the cook for the bbq we're having. Got bbq hook up outside to natural gas when we built this place. Lots of food. Ready for nap.

Exactly - not much middle ground.

We have been seeing these lulls in recent years when the subtropical warming has increased faster than the tropics. But often by later in the season SST anomalies between the tropics and subtropics balance out. So the tropics sit quietly gaining record amounts of heat through the season with suppressed convection. But when the hurricanes do finally form later on, we get these rapidly intensifying hurricanes becoming majors right before landfall on the Gulf Coast. Different from the old days when most hurricanes seemed to weaken right before landfalling.

86/56. Doesn’t get much better in July

Looks too broad based on what we have right now, but they need to sample that north side.

Severe storms usually overperform when we have steep lapse rates and such unstable soundings.

Why are the mid-latitudes warming though? It might just be a pattern that fluxes up and down, with general global warming.

I actually sat outside all morning, and occasionally a few times this afternoon. Unbelievable!

The winds are high enough but is the circulation tight enough to be classified as a TD+? Based on images with wind barbs, it seems kind of broad. Opinions?

2009 rainy and raw 2007 chilly start 2001 chilly 7/4/92 nastiest 4th ever

I love that Big Y. Even when its busy, its manageable to get around the store and I don't think I've ever had to wait more than 2-3 minutes to get a self checkout register.

The record WPAC warm pool and Aleutian Ridge are much more amplified than we typically see from +WPO patterns. Same goes for the new way the -PDO has played out in the 2020s. So the hemispheric expansion of the subtropical ridges are creating their own pattern.

https://partnerservices.nws.noaa.gov/products/7c55db9f01d7329acb2717f2a485c8bc?fbclid=IwQ0xDSwLVBgRjbGNrAtUF02V4dG4DYWVtAjExAAEeOPuZLPYb_URFXsFrzVHLuYih3Ej026AZRkmmqR8aolTWqUNr29rd2tgHKrc_aem_YdTn038-IAEpYKwapOwphQ

I do recall some miserable cold and rainy ones around 10-15 years ago I also remember a very hot one in 1999 I think?

What was the 19th hottest of the top of your head if it's so memorable?

Happy 4th of July.

could not get a more perfect day for the fourth of july comfortable temps very low humidity and a gentle breeze it felt great outside..

I know. Never expected even looking at radar that it would be that bad. Didn't even feel like a typical severe day